Brent up 10pc as Trump talks deal
Crude futures rose by 10pc today after US president Donald Trump suggested that Saudi Arabia and Russia may be close to "a deal" to alleviate the oil price collapse.
"Russia and Saudi Arabia at some point are going to make a deal in the not too distant future," Trump said. "Because it's very bad for Russia, it's very bad for Saudi Arabia. It's very bad. I mean, it's bad for both, so I think they're going to make a deal."
The prospect of some kind of agreement to curtail the vast oversupply seen in the crude market since the start of last month sent Ice Brent crude futures soaring. At 09:31 GMT, the front-month contract was up by 10.5pc at $27.35/bl.
But this is still down by around 50pc from levels of a month ago, before the collapse of the Opec+ agreement that triggered a battle for market share just as the coronavirus pandemic began to eat into demand. The IEA said yesterday that this scenario is presenting the oil industry with its worst crisis. Around 5mn b/d of global production is unprofitable at crude prices below $25/bl, and 7.5mn b/d is unprofitable at $20/bl, the agency said.
Trump has previously said that he is considering joining discussions on what the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia could do in response to the collapse in prices, and he spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on energy issues this week.
There has been no indication from either Riyadh or Moscow that direct talks have taken place on oil market actions. The most vocal recent proponent of co-ordinated production cuts has been the Texas Railroad Commission, which hopes to hold a meeting on the matter this month
In the absence of any deal — either in Texas, Riyadh or Moscow — Trump suggested that he could intervene: "I think I know what to do to solve it … if [Russia and Saudi Arabia are] unable to solve it, I think I know what to do to solve it," he said, without giving details.
Related news posts
India's crude output steady, throughput rises in March
India's crude output steady, throughput rises in March
Mumbai, 26 April (Argus) — India's March crude production was steady on the year and up by 2pc on the month at 543,000 b/d. Output fell by 2pc to 546,000 b/d during the April 2023-March 2024 fiscal year. Total crude and condensate production was 590,000 b/d in March, up from 580,000 b/d in February and steady from March 2023, data from the oil ministry show. Crude output from state-controlled upstream firm ONGC was 354,000 b/d in March, up by 0.2pc on the month and down by 6pc on the year. This was likely because of a shutdown at the Panna-Mukta offshore platforms to commission a new crude pipeline and to modernise its evacuation facilities. The windfall tax for domestic crude production was raised to 4,600 rupees/t ($7.58/bl) during 1-15 March and then to Rs4,900/t during 16 March-3 April. The rate is reviewed every two weeks. The Indian government first imposed the windfall tax in July 2022 as a sharp increase in crude prices then resulted in domestic crude producers making windfall gains. Indian crude producers sell crude to domestic refineries at international parity prices. ONGC and fellow state-controlled upstream firm Oil India continued to produce the most of India's crude in March at 425,000 b/d, making up 78pc of the total production. Private-sector producers and joint ventures made up the remainder. India's dependence on crude imports declined to 88pc in March from 89pc in February and March 2023. Its dependence on crude imports rose to around 88pc in April 2023-March 2024 from 87pc in the previous year. India has steadily been trying to reduce its dependence on imports. It extended the deadline to 15 May for submitting bids for 28 upstream oil and gas blocks in the ninth Open Acreage Licensing Program bidding round. India's oil product exports fell to 5.3mn t in March from 6mn t in March 2023, but rose from 4.1mn t in February. Higher throughput Indian refiners processed 5.53mn b/d in March, higher from 5.28mn b/d in February and 5.44mn b/d in March 2023. Processing rose to 5.24mn b/d in April 2023-March 2024, up from 5.11mn b/d the previous year. Processing likely picked up as product demand increased in March. India's product demand — including diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, LPG, bitumen, naphtha and petroleum coke — increased by nearly 7pc from the previous month and was steady on the year to 21mn t in March. Crude throughput at state-controlled IOC's nine refineries was 1.6mn b/d, up by 8pc from a year earlier and by 10pc against the previous month. State-controlled BPCL processed 874,000 b/d at its refineries in March, up by 3pc from a year earlier and by 8pc from February. State-controlled HPCL's throughput rose by 3pc from the previous year and was steady from a month earlier at 709,000 b/d. ONGC's refineries processed 354,000 b/d in March, 6pc lower on the month and steady against a year earlier. India imported 4.7mn b/d of crude in March, 4pc lower from the previous year and up by 4pc from a month earlier, according to oil ministry data. By Roshni Devi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US reimposes Venezuela oil sanctions
US reimposes Venezuela oil sanctions
The US' decision reopens the door for Chinese independent refiners to procure Venezuelan Merey at wide discounts to other crude grades, writes Haik Gugarats Washington, 25 April (Argus) — The US administration reimposed sanctions targeting Venezuela's oil exports and energy sector investments on 17 April, and set a deadline of 31 May for most foreign companies to wind down business with state-owned oil firm PdV. The decision rescinds a sanctions waiver issued in October, which allowed Venezuela to sell oil freely to any buyer and to invite foreign investment in the country's energy sector. The waiver was due to expire on 18 April, with an extension dependent on Caracas upholding a pledge to hold free and fair elections. Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro's government reneged on that deal by refusing to register leading opposition candidate Maria Corina Machado or an alternative candidate designated by her, a senior US official says. The US considered the potential effects on global energy markets and other factors in its decision but "fundamentally the decision was based on the actions and non-actions of the Venezuelan authorities", the official says. China's imports of Venezuelan Merey — often labelled as diluted bitumen — decreased following the instigation of the waiver in October. Independent refiners in Shandong previously benefited from wide discounts on the sanctioned crude, but they drastically cut back their Merey imports as prices rose. Meanwhile, state-controlled PetroChina was able to resume imports under the waiver. The reimposition of sanctions this month was widely expected and Merey's discount to Ice Brent began to widen in early April, before the decision was announced. Merey's discount to Brent averaged $9/bl in March, but had reached $12/bl by the start of April and $13/bl after the reimposition of sanctions was formally announced. Buyers are expecting final deals for May at discounts of $14/bl or lower, and for prices to drop by a further $3-4/bl in the short term. Longer-term prices for Merey will be influenced by supply and prices for Iranian crude — another mainstay of Shandong independents. Venezuela's crude output reached 850,000 b/d in March, up by 150,000 b/d on the year, according to Argus estimates. PdV has begun looking to change the terms of its nine active joint ventures with international oil companies, in an effort to keep production elevated now sanctions are back in place. Chasing the deadline The end of the waiver will affect Venezuela's exports to India as much as those to China. India emerged as a major destination for Venezuelan crude after sanctions were lifted, importing 152,000 b/d in March. Two more Venezuelan cargoes are expected to arrive in India before the 31 May deadline. The 2mn bl Caspar left Venezuela's Jose port on 14 March and is expected to arrive in India on 26 April, and Suezmax vessel Tinos is due at India's Sikka port on 30 April. Separate sanctions waivers granted to Chevron and oil field service companies Halliburton, SLB, Baker Hughes and Weatherford will remain in place. Chevron can continue lifting oil from its joint venture with PdV, solely for imports to the US. Oil-for-debt deals between PdV and Spain's Repsol and Italy's Eni are expected to be allowed to continue. Repsol imported 23,000 b/d of Venezuelan crude into Spain last year and 29,000 b/d so far this year, according to data from oil analytics firm Vortexa. And a waiver enabling a Shell project to import natural gas from Venezuela's Dragon field to Trinidad and Tobago is expected to remain in place. The US says it would consider other requests for sanctions waivers for specific energy projects. It will consider lifting sanctions again if Maduro's government allows opposition candidates to participate in the July presidential election. The resumption of sanctions "should not be viewed as a final decision that we no longer believe Venezuela can hold competitive and inclusive elections", a US official says. Chinese imports of Venezuelan crude Venezuelan crude exports Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
LNG Energy eyes sanctions-hit Venezuela oil blocks
LNG Energy eyes sanctions-hit Venezuela oil blocks
Caracas, 25 April (Argus) — A Canadian firm plans to revive two onshore oil blocks in Venezuela, but the conditional deals signed with struggling state-owned PdV come just as the US is reinstating broad sanctions on the South American country. LNG Energy Group's Venezuela unit agreed two deals with PdV to boost output in five fields in the Nipa-Nardo-Niebla and Budare-Elotes blocks, which produce about 3,000 b/d of light- to medium-grade crude, the company said on Wednesday. The Canadian company, which operates in neighboring Colombia, would receive 50-56pc of production of the blocks. Venezuela's oil ministry declined to comment. But finalizing the contracts depends on providing required investment to develop the fields within 120 days of the contract signing on 17 April, LNG Energy said. And the signing came on the same day as the US reimposed oil sanctions on Venezuela and gave most companies until 31 May to wind down business. LNG Energy Group said it intends to comply with existing and upcoming US sanctions, noting that the conditional contracts were executed within the terms of the temporary lifting of sanctions — general license 44 — but it will abide by the new license 44A. The reimposition of US sanctions on Venezuela prohibits new investment in the country's energy sector, at the threat of US criminal and economic penalties. "The company will assess in the coming days the applicability of license 44A to its intended operations in Venezuela and determine the most appropriate course of action," LNG Energy said. "The company intends to operate in full compliance with the applicable sanctions regimes." The two blocks are in the adjacent Anzoategui and Monagas states, part of the Orinoco extra heavy oil belt. Most of Venezuela's output is medium- to heavy-grade crude. Both PdV and Chevron have drilling rigs working in those two states, in separate workover and drilling campaigns. Venezuela is now producing above 800,000 b/d, after the US allowed Chevron to increase production and investment under separate waivers. By Carlos Camacho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US economic growth slows to 1.6pc in 1Q
US economic growth slows to 1.6pc in 1Q
Houston, 25 April (Argus) — The US economy in the first quarter grew at a 1.6pc annual pace, slower than expected, while a key measure of inflation accelerated. Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) slowed from a 3.4pc annual rate in the fourth quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Thursday. The first-quarter growth number, the first of three estimates for the period, compares with analyst forecasts of about a 2.5pc gain. Personal consumption slowed to a 2.5pc annual rate in the first quarter from a 3.3pc pace in the fourth quarter, partly reflecting lower spending on motor vehicles and gasoline and other energy goods. Gross private domestic investment rose by 3.2pc, with residential spending up 13.9pc after a 2.8pc expansion in the fourth quarter. Government spending growth slowed to 1.2pc from 4.6pc. Private inventories fell and imports rose, weighing on growth. The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which the Federal Reserve closely follows, rose by 3.7pc following 2pc annual growth in the fourth quarter, although consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics said revisions to the data should pull the index lower in coming months. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to begin cutting its target lending rate in September following sharp increases in 2022 and early 2023 to fight inflation that surged to a high of 9.1pc in June 2022. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more