US economy expanded in 4Q as consumers kept spending

  • : Biofuels, Chemicals, Coal, Crude oil, Electricity, LPG, Metals, Natural gas, Oil products
  • 23/01/26

The US economy grew more than most analysts expected in the fourth quarter as consumers kept spending amid robust job growth and signs of slowing inflation.

The economy grew at a 2.9pc annual rate in the fourth quarter, slowing from a 3.2pc rate in the third quarter, according to the advance estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The economy contracted by 1.6pc in the first quarter and by 0.6pc in the second quarter.

The slump in the first half of last year raised concerns the economy was in, or headed toward, recession as inflation surged to four-decade highs amid spiking fuel costs prompted in part by the war in Ukraine, ongoing strains to supply chains and slowing global growth.

Sharp interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve have slowed inflation but concerns remain that the economy could slide into recession this year even as a robust labor market is supporting spending.

For the full year, the economy grew by 2.1pc following 5.9pc growth in 2021, the year of the post-Covid-19 rebound. The economy shrank by 2.8pc in 2020 on a brief Covid-induced recession.

The increase in gross domestic product in the fourth quarter reflected gains in private inventory investment, consumer spending, federal and state spending and nonresidential spending that were partially offset by decreases in residential investment and net exports.

Consumer spending growth slowed to a 2.1pc rate in the fourth quarter from 2.3pc in the third quarter.

Fixed investment spending fell at a 6.7pc annual rate in the fourth quarter, with residential investment down by 26.7pc, reflecting the hit to housing from the most aggressive Fed rate increases since the 1980s.

Federal spending rose at an annual 6.2pc rate and state and local spending rose by 2.3pc. Exports fell by 1.3pc while imports fell at a 4.6pc annual rate in the fourth quarter.

By Robert Willis


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24/04/24

New ISO 8217 eyes wider scope for alternative fuels

New ISO 8217 eyes wider scope for alternative fuels

London, 24 April (Argus) — The 7th edition of ISO 8217, to be published in the second quarter of this year, will outline a broader integration of marine biodiesel blending, delegates heard at the International Bunker Conference (IBC) 2024 in Norway. Tim Wilson, principal specialist fuels of Lloyds Register's fuel oil bunkering analysis and advisory service (FOBAS), presented on the upcoming iteration of the ISO 8217 marine fuel specification standard, which will be released at IBC 2024. The new edition will incorporate specification standards for a wide range of fatty acid methyl ester (Fame)-based marine biodiesel blends up to B100, 100pc hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO), as well as synthetic and renewable marine fuels. This will also include additional clauses to cover a wider scope, and briefly touch on biodiesel specifications that do not entirely align with road biodiesel EN-14214 specifications. This follows the emergence of widening price spreads for marine biodiesel blends because of specification differences and the lack of a marine-specific standard for the blends. The new edition of ISO 8217 is also expected to remove the limit of 7pc Fame when blended with distillate marine fuels such as marine gasoil (MGO) which was in place in the previous ISO 8217:2017. Other changes to distillate marine biodiesel blends include changes to the minimum Cetane Index, oxidation stability alignment to be connected to either ISO 15751 for blends comprising 2pc or more of Fame biodiesel and ISO 12205 for blends comprising a Fame component of under 2pc. Cold-filter plugging point (CFPP) properties will be determined by the vessel's fuel storage tanks' heating capabilities and requirements will be set in place to report the CFPP for distillate marine biodiesel grades, according to the new edition of the marine fuel specification standard. Wilson said that a minimum kinematic viscosity at 50°C will be in place for various forms of residual bunker fuel oil along with a viscosity control alerting suppliers to inform buyers of the exact viscosity in the supplied fuel. He said they have seen delivered fuel viscosity come in at much lower levels than ordered by the buyers, which was the reasoning behind the viscosity control monitoring requirement. By Hussein Al-Khalisy Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Critical battery metal supply meets today's demand: IEA


24/04/24
24/04/24

Critical battery metal supply meets today's demand: IEA

Singapore, 24 April (Argus) — Supply of critical battery metals such as lithium, nickel and cobalt can "comfortably" meet current demand after major mining and refining investment over the past five years, according to IEA's latest Global EV Outlook 2024 . Global supply of lithium, nickel and cobalt in 2023 exceeded demand by 10pc, 8pc and 6.5pc, respectively, said IEA. Lithium demand for battery rose by 30pc on the year to around 140,000t, that of cobalt increased by 15pc to 150,000t, and nickel rose by 30pc to 370,000t. Continued rapid growth in mining and refining is needed to meet future demand and avoid supply chain bottlenecks, but battery technology advancements can potentially mitigate the demand, IEA said. IEA noted overcapacity has brought critical minerals prices and battery costs down but is also squeezing mining firms' cash flows and margins, with many companies struggling to stay afloat. Australia's nickel industry has been hit hard this year, with multiple producers ceasing operations following a sharp nickel market downturn, having to compete with rising nickel supply from Indonesia. Western Australia had to resort to providing royalty rebates to struggling nickel producers. Low lithium prices are threatening the survival of greenfield lithium project developers , and also affecting some established participants. Major Chinese lithium producer Tianqi Lithium on 23 April issued a profit warning to its shareholders, citing a significant fall in lithium product sales price. Tianqi warned of a net loss of 3.6bn-4.3bn yuan ($497-593mn) in January-March, drastically below a net profit of 4.88bn yuan for the same period a year earlier. Global lithium firm Arcadium Lithium earlier this year warned that current market prices will weigh on future supply . Cobalt prices in China are also under pressure, with market participants forecasting the downtrend to continue at least until the end of this year. "Everyone's mentally prepared that this year's a tough year, even 2025 [can be tough]," said a lithium market participant, noting the adverse effects from this year's global economic downturn. Battery EV battery demand rose by 40pc on the year to 750GWh in 2023, but at a lower rate as EV demand growth also slows down . Among major markets, US and Europe grew the fastest by 40pc on the year, while China — the largest market — grew by 35pc. Battery demand in the rest of the world grew by 70pc, but was still lower than 100GWh. China's battery demand reached 415GWh in 2023, while Europe and US trailed behind at 185GWh and 100GWh, respectively. Battery output in Europe and US were 110GWh and 70GWh, respectively. Lithium-ion battery output in China was 940GWh in 2023 , according to data from the country's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT). China is leading the way, but it comes at the cost of "high levels of overcapacity", IEA noted. China used less than 40pc of its maximum cell output, with its installed manufacturing capacity of cathode active material and anode active material at almost four and nine times greater than global EV cell demand in 2023. Homegrown current and additional EV battery manufacturing capacity in Europe and US are scarce. South Korean firms account for over 350GWh of manufacturing capacity outside of South Korea, with around 75pc of existing manufacturing capacity in Europe owned by South Korean firms. Japanese and Chinese firms have 57GWh and 30GWh of capacity, respectively, outside of their own countries. By Joseph Ho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Peninsula eyes B100 marine fuel supply in Barcelona


24/04/24
24/04/24

Peninsula eyes B100 marine fuel supply in Barcelona

London, 24 April (Argus) — Marine fuel supplier and trader Peninsula has added a chemical tanker to its fleet in Barcelona, with a view to supply the port with B100 marine biodiesel. Aalborg meets chemical tanker regulations under the International Maritime Organisation (IMO)'s International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL) Annex II. This means the tanker can supply marine biodiesel blends containing up to 100pc fatty acid methyl ester (Fame), which conventional oil tankers are unable to do . Oil tankers and barges are limited to up to 25pc Fame. Peninsula added that the Aalborg is also used to supply conventional fossil bunker fuels such as very-low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) and marine gasoil (MGO). It is yet to complete a B100 delivery in Barcelona. Market participants pointed to limited demand for B100 in the Mediterranean, but regulatory changes such as the introduction of FuelEU maritime next year may help to support demand for marine biodiesel blends. By Hussein Al-Khalisy Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Oman latest to insist that oil, gas is 'here to stay'


24/04/24
24/04/24

Oman latest to insist that oil, gas is 'here to stay'

Muscat, 24 April (Argus) — Omani and Oman-focused energy officials this week joined a growing chorus of voices to reiterate the pivotal role that hydrocarbons have in the energy mix, even as state-owned companies scramble to increase their share of renewables production. Some producers cite the risk of leaving costly, stranded oil and gas assets as renewable energy alternatives become more favoured. "This is a common concern among producers who are focusing on short-term developments to maximize cash flow — [but] if we continue to do that, with the clean energy transition, will we be left with stranded assets in the long-term", state-controlled PDO's technical director Sami Baqi told the Oman Petroleum and Crude Show conference in Muscat this week. "We need to redefine and revamp our operation model to produce in a sustainable manner." "We are in an era where most of the production does not come from the easy oil but comes from difficult oil," Oman's energy ministry undersecretary Mohsin Al Hadhrami said. "It requires more improved and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) type technologies to extract it." Oman is heavily reliant on tertiary extraction technologies like EOR given its maturing asset base and complicated geology. "We know that most of the oil fields [in the region] are maturing and costs are going to escalate, so we need to be mindful of it while discussing cleaner solutions going forward," Hadhrami said. PDO, Oman's largest hydrocarbon producer, aims for 19pc of its output to come from EOR projects by 2025, and has said it is looking at 'cleaner' ways to implement the technology. PDO in November started a pilot project to inject captured CO2 for EOR at its oil reservoirs. Baqi's concerns were echoed by PDO's carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) manager Nabil Al-Bulushi, who said even solutions like CCUS can be expensive and come with their own challenges. There is a need for a proper ecosystem or regulatory policies to avoid delays in executing such projects, he said. When it comes to challenges associated with commercialising green hydrogen, Saudi state-controlled Aramco's head of upstream Yousef Al-Tahan said higher costs already make hydrogen more expensive than any other energy sources. "Not only should the costs go down, but the market has to be matured to take in the hydrogen," he said. "We also need pipelines and facilities that are able to handle hydrogen, especially when it gets converted to ammonia." Gas here to stay Oman, like many of its neighbors in the Mideast Gulf, insists gas needs to be part of the global journey towards cleaner energies. "Asia-Pacific is still heavily reliant on coal, this is an area where gas can play an important role," Shell Oman's development manager Salim Al Amri said at the event. "I think there is no doubt that gas is here to stay." Oman is a particularly interesting case as it "has moved from a position of gas shortage to surplus", Al Amri said, enabled by key developments in tight gas. "Output from fields like Khazzan and Mabrouk will continue to produce nearly 50pc of output even by 2025, which is indicative of how important tight gas developments are," he said. The Khazzan tight gas field has 10.5 trillion ft³ of recoverable gas reserves. Mabrouk North East is due to reach 500mn ft³/d by mid-2024. But even as natural gas is touted as the transition fuel, executives from major producers like state-owned OQ and PDO warned there are technical risks associated with extracting the fuel, including encountering complex tight reservoirs, water production and difficult geology. By Rithika Krishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Ayala’s South Luzon coal plant eligible for retirement


24/04/24
24/04/24

Ayala’s South Luzon coal plant eligible for retirement

Manila, 24 April (Argus) — Early decommissioning of coal-fired power plants in the Philippines has advanced with utility Ayala Energy's 246MW South Luzon Thermal Energy eligible for the US-based Rockefeller Foundation's coal to clean credit initiative (CCCI). The Rockefeller Foundation is a non-profit philanthropic group that creates and implements programmes in partnership with the private sector across different industries aimed at reversing climate change. Ayala has been working with the foundation to further shorten South Luzon's operating life from an original decommissioning date of 2040 to 2030. Doing so could result in the reduction of up to 19mn t of carbon emissions, Ayala said. An assessment by the Rocky Mountain Institute, the technical partner of the foundation for its energy-related projects, found that an early retirement date of 2030 instead of the original retirement date of 2040 could yield positive financial, social and climate outcomes. But decommissioning by this date will require carbon finance. Carbon financing will need to cover costs associated with the early retirement of the power plant's power supply contract, costs associated with 100pc clean replacement of the plant's power generation, plant decommissioning and transition support for workers affected by the plant's early closure, Ayala said. Ayala's listed arm ACEN welcomed the plant's eligibility for the CCCI programme, as its retirement is part of the company's goal to have its power generation portfolio composed solely of 100pc renewable sources by 2025. The Philippines' Department of Energy (DOE) said if successful, the pilot programme could serve as a basis for the development of other early retirement efforts as part of the country's plan to reduce carbon emissions. The DOE is seeking the early decommissioning of coal-fired power plants older than 20 years with a combined total capacity of 3.8GW by 2050, as part of the Philippines' transition to clean energy. By Antonio delos Reyes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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