US job growth surges, unemployment drops further
The US economy generated nearly three times more nonfarm jobs in January than analysts expected as the jobless rate pushed to new lows, suggesting the Federal Reserve has more work to do to quash demand and bring down inflation.
The US economy generated 517,000 nonfarm payrolls in January, compared with analysts' estimates of about 190,000 jobs, following upwardly revised gains of 260,000 in December and 290,000 for November, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said today. The average monthly gain in 2022 was 401,000 jobs.
The unemployment rate fell to 3.4pc, the lowest since 1969, from 3.5pc in December.
The stronger-than-expected employment report presents a new challenge for the Federal Reserve, which on Wednesday hiked its target rate by a quarter point, the smallest increase since last March, as it cited signs of easing inflation. It reiterated that "ongoing increases" in the fed funds rate were likely, but Fed chief Jerome Powell's comments that "the disinflationary process" is underway gave investors hope the Fed may be close to pausing.
"Goodbye to the March Fed pause," Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist Ian Shepherdson headlined his analysis after the report. "We now think the Fed is more likely than not to hike in March, though we hope they don't, given the lagged effect of their previous tightenings is still to come."
Job growth was led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care. Leisure and hospitality added 128,000 jobs in January, up from an average monthly gain of 89,000 jobs in 2022.
Government employment also increased, partially reflecting the return of university workers after a strike. Government added 74,000 jobs as state government jobs rose by 35,000.
Construction added 25,000 jobs, compared with an average monthly gain of 22,000 in 2022.
Manufacturing added 19,000 jobs in January, compared with an average 33,000 per month in 2022. Motor vehicles and parts manufacturing lost 6,500 jobs in January.
Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction added 2,600 jobs, with oil and gas up by 1,000 and coal mining down by 400.
Transportation and warehousing added 23,000 jobs in January, matching the average monthly gain for 2022. Truck transportation added 4,100 jobs and air transportation added 2,800 jobs in January. Rail added 500 jobs.
Average hourly earnings rose by 0.3pc on the month and were up by 4.4pc over 12 months, the lowest wage inflation since August 2021.
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UAE air traffic recovery begins after storm disruptions
UAE air traffic recovery begins after storm disruptions
Singapore, 18 April (Argus) — Air traffic at Dubai International (DXB) has begun to recover after an unprecedented storm hit the country on 16 April, although flight delays are expected to continue. "DXB resumed inbound flights of international airlines operating out of terminal 1", a spokesperson for DXB operator Dubai Airports said on 18 April. But it urged travellers not to come to the terminal for outbound flights before confirming their flight status, as it said the access to the terminal is "strictly limited" to guests with confirmed departures. Prolonged flight disruptions at DXB, which was ranked the second-busiest airport in the world in 2023, according to the Airports Council International's preliminary ranking, could affect regional jet fuel demand. Dubai low-cost carrier flydubai said it has now resumed partial operations from DXB, having previously cancelled all of its flights scheduled to depart from Dubai on 16 April evening until 10am on 17 April. Select outbound flights were to operate from DXB's terminal 2 with scheduled operations resuming after 8pm on 17 April, it said, while flights from terminal 3 were due to resume after midnight. But Dubai-owned Emirates Airlines has extended the suspension on check-in for passengers departing DXB until 9am on 18 April, after having initially suspending it between 8am and midnight on 17 April. The airline said the extension was because of "continued operational challenges caused by bad weather and road conditions". Neighbouring Abu Dhabi's Zayed international airport said it is "operating smoothly", despite issuing a warning on 17 April that some flights might be delayed. By Ieva Paldaviciute Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
BHP cuts Australian met coal sales guidance again
BHP cuts Australian met coal sales guidance again
Sydney, 18 April (Argus) — Australian mining firm BHP has cut its coking coal guidance for the 2023-24 fiscal year to 30 June to a new decade-low of 43mn-45mn t because of the impact of wet weather and cyclones on its Queensland operations. The BHP Mitsubishi Alliance (BMA), which is 50pc owned by BHP and 50pc by Japanese trading house Mitsubishi, had already cut its guidance by 18pc in January to 46mn-50mn t of metallurgical coal for 2023-24, down from the previous guidance of 56mn-62mn t issued in July. At that time it cited the impact of the sale of the Blackwater and Daunia coking and thermal coal mines in Queensland to Australian independent Whitehaven, which it completed on 2 April, maintenance, a fatality at its 10mn t/yr Saraji mine and increased removal of waste. The latest downgrade was blamed again on the Saraji incident, as well as on wet cyclonic weather in Queensland and an inventory rebuild after the impact of flooding and labour shortages in 2022 and 2023. The inventory rebuild will continue into calendar year 2025, which could further weigh on sales into 2024-25. The further reduction in expected sales volumes led BHP to increase its cost guidance for 2023-24 to $119-125/t from $110-116/t in January and from $95-105/t in June. BHP received an average price of $274.99/t for hard coking coal and $204.55/t for weak coking coal during July-December, up from $242.52/t and $190.74/t for January-June and $270.65/t and $252.12/t in July-December 2022. It defines hard coking coal as those with a coke strength after reaction (CSR) of 35 and above, with weak coking coal being those with a CSR of below 35. Argus last assessed the premium hard low-volatile metallurgical coal price at $249/t fob Australia on 17 March, down from $336.50/t on 17 January. By Jo Clarke BHP metallurgical coal sales (mn t) Jan-Mar '24 Oct-Dec '23 Jan-Mar '23 Jul-Mar '23-24 July-Mar '22-23 Coking coal 5.41 4.76 5.37 14.66 16.86 Weak coking coal 0.93 0.75 0.71 2.21 2.04 Thermal coal 0.02 0.20 0.10 0.52 0.80 Total BMA 6.36 5.71 6.19 17.39 19.70 Total BMA (100%) 12.72 11.41 12.37 34.78 39.39 Source: BHP Australian metallurgical coal prices ($/t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
June deadline set for Citgo auction bids
June deadline set for Citgo auction bids
Houston, 17 April (Argus) — Bidders for Citgo's US refining assets have until 11 June to submit offers for the company's 805,000 b/d of refining capacity and associated assets, with a tentative sale hearing set for 15 July. Documents filed Tuesday in the US District Court for the District of Delaware set 11 June as the deadline for interested parties to submit final binding bids after non-binding bids were received 22 January. The court began the auction process for Citgo's parent PdV Holding (PdVH) in October, part of the process of satisfying debts owed by Venezuelan-state owned oil company PdV. The court will file a notice of a successful bid "as soon as reasonably practicable" following the 11 June deadline and selection of a successful bidder. No date has been set for the filing of objections to the sale or replies to the objections before the tentative 15 July hearing. The legal wrangling over Citgo is unlikely to conclude even if the Delaware court successfully executes the sale as 27 businesses have filed claims against Citgo amounting to more than $21bn. The scale of Citgo's operations in the US are also a challenge to any potential buyer. Few companies look ready to buy the company's three refineries, three lubricants plants and retail and midstream assets. The assets have been valued by various analysts anywhere between $6.5bn and $40bn, with a lofty valuation potentially deterring bidders. But the auction process itself has been the main cause for concern. Independent refiner PBF Energy's chief executive Matthew Lucey previously called the auction a "quagmire" , considering its ties to a complex geopolitical situation in Venezuela, saying he did not expect the sale to go anywhere in the near term. Marathon Petroleum expressed similar disdain. "We're not interested in the auction process," Marathon chief executive Michael Hennigan said on an earnings call in October . By Nathan Risser Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Idemitsu books rare US Gulf-Vancouver HVO cargo
Idemitsu books rare US Gulf-Vancouver HVO cargo
New York, 17 April (Argus) — Japanese oil company Idemitsu provisionally hired a medium range (MR) tanker to carry hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) from the US Gulf coast to Vancouver on 16 April, a sign of the growing HVO trade from the region into west coast North America. Idemitsu put the Stolt Sisto MR on subjects for a US Gulf coast-Vancouver voyage from 20-25 April at $2.35mn lumpsum. The fixture may be part of an agreement under which Vertex Energy supplies Idemitsu's California-based subsidiary, Idemitsu Apollo, with all of its renewable diesel production from its plant in Mobile, Alabama. The plant's exports are targeting "growing regional markets in the western United States and Canada", according to Vertex. High freight costs for US domestic shipments because of the Jones Act may be encouraging Idemitsu to focus on the Canadian market. In comparison, freight for a US-flagged MR on a New Orleans-Los Angeles voyage was equivalent to $4.34mn, nearly double the cost of a voyage to more distant Vancouver. "I think [demand from Vancouver] will keep expanding with the subsidies/grants," a shipbroker said. "There is not much production in Vancouver, just Parkland [refinery]." Canadian oil company Suncor typically books one MR vessel a month to carry HVO from the US Gulf coast to Vancouver, with two charters in October 2023 standing out as a particularly active month for the trade, according to ship fixtures compiled by Argus . But Idemitsu has been "jumping in on the action" in recent months, according to the shipbroker, provisionally hiring at least one MR tanker on the spot market in January and February before yesterday's deal. Vancouver buyers are also getting HVO from Asia-Pacific suppliers, and countries like South Korea could become increasingly competitive in the renewable trade overall as they ramp up their sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and HVO production in the coming years. Vancouver imported around 29,500 b/d of HVO in January 2024, including 16,612 b/d from the US, 7,548 b/d from South Korea, and 5,351 b/d from Taiwan, according to Kpler data. By Ross Griffith Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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