South American grain demand boosts Panamax rates

: Agriculture, Coal
23/04/05

Asia-Pacific demand for grain cargoes from South American suppliers like Brazil is boosting Panamax rates in the Atlantic basin this week, as rising grain shipments from the region to China more than compensate for declining US-China grain volumes.

Panamax rates for grain voyages from Houston to Qingdao are at $47.35/t today, an 8pc increase since 3 April at $43.90/t. Rates for coal voyages from the US Gulf coast to Rotterdam are at $16.15/t today, up by 6pc from $15.20/t in the same period.

Charterers fixed a high number of Kamsarmax bulkers from east coast South America today and yesterday, helping to clear tonnage in the basin. The tighter vessel supply gives Panamax segment shipowners in the Atlantic more negotiating power overall, putting upward pressure on rates for US loading coal, grain and mineral voyages heading to Europe and Asia-Pacific. But demand on these routes remains limited compared to the strong physical activity in the south Atlantic.

The uptick in demand from Asia-Pacific for South American grain cargoes is connected to China and Brazil reaching an agreement on sanitary conditions for the latter's exported corn in 2022. The new trade agreement is part of China looking to reduce its dependence on US grains by taking advantage of an increase in grain exports alternatives to Ukraine in the wake of the war, in this case Brazil

The US exported 605,000t of corn to China in January 2023, less than half of what was exported in January 2022 at 1.55mn t, representing a drop of 13 Kamsarmax-sized cargoes loading from the region on the month. Meanwhile, Brazil stepped up its corn exports from zero in January 2022 to 983,000t in January 2023, representing a jump of 13.5 Kamsarmax-sized cargoes, according to data from the Global Trade Tracker (GTT).

Brazil's corn exports are poised to jump further in the 2022-23 year as its bumper "second crop" of corn will start shipping out to foreign destinations beginning in June, likely securing Brazil's status as the largest global corn exporter for the period on the back of Chinese buying preference for product from the region.

In comparison, the US Department of Agriculture said in its March WASDE report that the US's revised lower corn exports for the month reflected "the poor pace of sales and shipments to date despite relatively competitive US prices."

Brazil exported 20.5mn t of corn in calendar year 2021, while the US exported 69.7mn t. In 2022, Brazilian exports had more than doubled to 43.2mn t while US exports dropped to 58.6mn t. Since the start of 2023, Brazil has exported 8.45mn t of corn, nearly 2mn t more than the US at 6.5mn t, according to GTT data.

By Ross Griffith

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25/12/19

Global beef production to decline in 2026: Rabobank

Dalby, 19 December (Argus) — Global beef production will decline in 2026, marking the first contraction in animal protein output in six years, according to the Global Animal Protein Outlook 2026 by Netherlands-based investment bank Rabobank. Herd rebuilding in North America and Brazil, combined with structural adjustments in China, will tighten supply and keep prices firm across major markets, according to the report. North America Beef cattle numbers in the US and Canada fell for six straight years in 2020-25, but stronger profitability is slowing liquidation and supporting herd rebuilding. US beef cow slaughter dropped by 19pc on the year in 2025, with the culling rate projected at 8.5pc for 2026, below the long-term average. Canada is also stabilising its herd, while Mexico faces supply constraints from disease-related import restrictions. Per capita beef supplies will likely fall by 6pc from 2020 highs, maintaining upward pressure on prices. Feeder cattle prices rose by 26pc in the US and 28pc in Canada in 2025, with further increases likely in 2026, according to Rabobank. North American imports have narrowed the supply gap, but trade tensions may cap volumes. Exports from the region will likely decline because domestic demand remains strong. Brazil and Argentina Brazilian beef production will likely fall by 5-6pc in 2026 to 10.5mn t because producers may retain cattle to rebuild herds. But exports will likely hit a record 4.4mn t because of strong global demand, a weak Brazilian real and reduced competition from other suppliers, despite lower output. China is set to remain Brazil's largest buyer, while trade diversification targets Mexico and other markets. Domestic consumption will likely drop by up to 9pc because high prices are pushing consumers toward cheaper proteins. Argentina faces similar dynamics. Production is expected to hold steady at 3.23mn t, but exports will likely reach the second-highest level on record at 880,000t, because of competitive pricing and strong demand from China, the US and EU. Local consumption will likely fall by 4pc on the back of an accelerating shift to poultry and pork. China China's beef production rose in early 2025 because of herd liquidation but will likely decline slightly in 2026 due to shrinking inventories. Beef prices will rise because of tighter supply, while the country's imports may ease by 2-3pc because of global supply constraints and higher prices. Imports account for 30pc of China's total supply. Meanwhile, retail demand remains resilient, with growth in online channels, but food service recovery will be modest. Australia and New Zealand Australian beef production will remain near record highs at 2.85mn t in 2026, supported by large cattle inventories and strong export demand from the US, Japan, South Korea and China. Prices are expected to hold firm, with the National Young Cattle Indicator forecast at A$4.30-4.80/kg ($2.84-3.17/kg). New Zealand beef output will recover gradually. The cattle population is projected to rise by 3pc and export prices are forecast to stay 15pc above the five-year average in 2026. By Amy Phillips Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Dry weather to ease Australia's coal queues

25/12/17

Viewpoint: Dry weather to ease Australia's coal queues

Sydney, 17 December (Argus) — Dry weather and minimal maintenance over January-March 2026 could support coal deliveries to Australia's Newcastle port, as well as exports from the thermal coal hub, which would help it recover from severe disruptions that took place during May–September. Newcastle has a 57pc chance of receiving 339–450mm of rain over the first three months of 2026, slightly above its historical median of 338.5mm but still below levels likely to cause port-side or rail disruptions, data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) show. The coastal city received approximately 517mm of rain during May–July this year, data from BoM show, during which Newcastle port implemented multiple rounds of vessel movement restrictions. The weather challenges pushed up the average vessel queue at the Port Waratah Coal Services (PWCS) up to 60 ships in July, from 41 vessels a year earlier. PWCS has partly cleared its ship queue since, but it still hovered at 36 vessels in November, up from just 11 vessels a year earlier. Demand in January-March Weaker demand during the first quarter of 2026 could help ease vessel congestion at Newcastle port's coal terminals. Exports to key markets in northeast Asia including Japan, China and South Korea typically decrease in the first quarter, after the peak winter season. La Nina weather conditions in Japan are expected to weaken in the second half of winter, according to the Japan Weather Association (JWA). The country faced a severe cold season in February this year, but the JWA predicts an arrival of spring-like conditions in February 2026. This could ease demand for coal exports to Japan during that period. But weaker demand could put pressure on coal producers if prices fall steeply next year. Newcastle high-calorific value (CV) NAR 6,000 kcal/kg coal prices trended downwards from February-April after the winter season in Japan, reaching its lowest level of $91.71/t fob Newcastle at the end of April. High-CV NAR 6,000 kcal/kg coal is usually exported to Japan and Taiwan, while China mainly imports high-ash NAR 5,500 kcal/kg coal from Australia. If the premium between NAR 6,000 kcal/kg and high-ash coal tapers, producers are likely to maximise profits by selling more coal to China. Chinese utilities usually buy Australian coal to take advantage of the price arbitrage compared with domestic Chinese coal supplies delivered from north China ports. But the price of domestic coal in China was volatile from November 2024-January 2025, owing to safety inspections at major coal mines in the country. Thermal coal exports out of Australia averaged 15.4mn t/month in the first quarter of 2025, according to customs data, which is consistent with averages recorded in the first quarters of 2023-25. But this is lower than the yearly average of 16.8mn-17.3mn t/month during 2023-25. Movements to port Producers are also likely to face fewer rail disruptions over the first quarter of next year. Australian state-owned rail operator the Australian Rail Track (ARTC) has just a single maintenance shutdown planned over the period. It will close its Hunter Valley coal lines — which link New South Wales mines to the port — for 72 hours in February (see table) . ARTC conducted four rounds of major maintenance over July–November this year, pushing down deliveries to PWCS' terminals at Newcastle port. Producers sent 87mn t of coal to the terminals in January-November, down by 4.4pc on the year, data from PWCS show. By Avinash Govind and Nadhir Mokhtar ARTC track maintenance Date Lines Length of Time (hrs) 10-13 February Warabrook/Kooragang to Muswellbrook 72 10-13 February Muswellbrook to Ulan 72 10-13 February Muswellbrook to Turrawan 72 30 March-2 April Warabrook / Kooragang to Muswellbrook 48 30 March-2 April Muswellbrook to Ulan 72 30 March-2 April Muswellbrook to Turrawan 72 16–19 May Warabrook/Kooragang to Muswellbrook 72 16–19 May Muswellbrook to Ulan 72 16–19 May Muswellbrook to Turrawan 72 16–19 May Islington Junction to Port Waratah 48 16–19 May Islington Junction to Telarah 72 21-24 July Warabrook / Kooragang to Muswellbrook 72 21-24 July Muswellbrook to Ulan 72 21-24 July Muswellbrook to Turrawan 72 22-25 September Warabrook / Kooragang to Muswellbrook 72 22-25 September Muswellbrook to Ulan 72 22-25 September Muswellbrook to Turrawan 72 17-20 November Warabrook / Kooragang to Muswellbrook 72 17-20 November Muswellbrook to Ulan 72 17-20 November Muswellbrook to Turrawan 72 Source: Australian Rail Track Corportation (ARTC) Australia coal prices 2023-2025 $/t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia coal, Fe prices to fall; LNG up: Treasury

25/12/17

Australia coal, Fe prices to fall; LNG up: Treasury

Sydney, 17 December (Argus) — Australian iron ore, coking coal, and thermal coal prices are expected to decline by the end of December 2026, while LNG prices may rise from current levels, according to Treasury forecasts released on 17 December. Australian commodity prices are expected to return to long-run fundamental levels, Treasury said in its Mid-Year Fiscal and Economic Outlook for the 2025-26 financial year ending 30 June. Thermal Coal Australia's thermal coal prices have been supported by ex-China demand since Treasury released its July 2025-June 2026 budget on 25 March, Treasury said. But it does not expect this trend to continue. Treasury forecasts Australian thermal coal spot prices will fall to $70/t on a fob basis by the end of December 2026, down from current levels. Argus ' Australian NAR 6,000 kcal/kg fob Newcastle price was last assessed at $108.46/t on 16 December, up from $95.62/t on 25 March. Australian thermal coal exports to China fell 11pc on the year in January-October ( see table ), while shipments to Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and Malaysia rose, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show. Steelmaking Inputs Chinese economic policy support has lifted iron ore and metallurgical coal prices since March, Treasury said. But it expects Australian iron ore and coking coal spot prices to fall to $60/t and $140/t fob, respectively, by the end of 2026. Argus ' metallurgical coal premium hard low-volatile fob Australia price was last assessed at $215.10/t on 16 December, while its iron ore fines 61pc Fe (ICX) fob Australia netback price was last assessed at $90.55/t. Treasury also expects mining investment to remain unchanged over the next two years, largely because of the iron ore and coking coal sectors. Iron ore producers may invest in projects to maintain production, but coking coal producers are expected to run down their capital stock, Treasury said. Producers are looking to sell or finance around six Queensland coking coal mines, a market participant told Argus on 2 December. Petroleum LNG prices have declined since March because of China's shift toward non-Australian gas, Treasury said. Australian LNG spot prices are expected to reach $10/mm Btu by the end of December 2026, according to Treasury forecasts. Argus ' Gladstone fob price — an LNG netback indicator — was last assessed at $9.01/mm Btu on 16 December, down from $12.90/mm Btu on 25 March. China plans to prioritise pipeline and domestic gas over LNG imports in the coming years, PetroChina International's global head of LNG Yaoyu Zhang said on 4 December. Treasury also expects global oil prices to hover around $66/bl over the next four years, down from its March estimate of $81/bl. Australia's government will raise less revenue from its petroleum resource rent tax than previously expected because of the downgrade, the agency added. The tax is forecast to generate A$1.5bn in 2025-26, down from the earlier estimate of A$1.95bn. By Avinash Govind Treasury Commodity Forecasts (Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook) $ Commodity Argus Price (most recent)* Forecasted Price* Change (%) Coking Coal 215.1/t 140/t -35.0 Thermal Coal 95.62/t 70/t -26.8 Iron Ore 90.55/t 60/t -33.7 LNG 9.01/mm Btu 10/mm Btu 11.0 * Argus' Australian NAR 6,000 kcal/kg fob Newcastle; metallurgical coal premium hard low-volatile fob Australia; Argus' Gladstone fob; Iron ore fines 61pc Fe (ICX) fob Australia netback * fob Australia basis, at end of December 2026 Argus, Commonwealth of Australia Australian thermal coal exports mn t Market Jan - Oct '25 Jan - Oct '24 YTD Change (%) China 53 60 -11 India 2.9 3.4 -16 Japan 59 59 0.5 South Korea 11 9.7 12 Vietnam 13 9.6 37 Malaysia 5.9 5.4 11 Australian Bureau of Statistics Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US House clears hurdle to pass permitting bill

25/12/16

US House clears hurdle to pass permitting bill

Washington, 16 December (Argus) — Republicans in the US House of Representatives have overcome an initial obstacle to passing a marquee permitting overhaul bill after committing to vote on key amendments that would strip out potential benefits for offshore wind. Republicans in the House voted 215-209 in a vote on Tuesday to approve a rule that will dictate the terms of debate for votes later this week on the SPEED Act, which has become the focus of bipartisan efforts to fast-track the permitting process for pipelines, electric transmission lines, railroads and other infrastructure. A group of far-right conservatives initially voted against the rule, but most reversed course during the vote in exchange for revisions that have yet to be made public. The Tuesday vote was one of the last remaining hurdles to House passage of the SPEED Act, which is expected to pick up some Democratic votes when it comes up for a final vote later this week. The House majority typically is responsible for putting up all the votes for a rule, meaning it would only take a few Republicans to block bill debate. Republicans were uncertain they would have enough votes for the rule, as far-right conservatives such as US representative Andy Harris (R-Maryland) and others were lobbying for changes. On Monday, US representative August Pfluger (R-Texas) urged attendees of a conference to put as "much effort as you possibly can" into persuading wavering Republicans to support the permitting bill. Pfluger is the chair of the Republican Study Commission, a caucus that represents a majority of House Republicans. "Go talk to them and let them know how important this is," Pfluger said during an event organized by the think tank the Conservative Coalition for Climate Solutions. Ahead of the vote, an industry coalition on Tuesday released a joint letter offering "strong support" for the bill. Among the signatories were the American Petroleum Institute, the US Chamber of Commerce, the Association of American Railroads and the US LNG Association. President Donald Trump has yet to take an explicit position on the SPEED Act, but administration officials are optimistic permitting legislation could be enacted. "I think we are at a time where the chance of a real permitting reform bill is higher maybe than it's ever been," US energy secretary Chris Wright said at the event on Monday. The SPEED Act would focus on the implementation of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), a decades-old law that requires federal agencies to prepare environmental reviews of infrastructure projects. Pipeline companies and renewable energy developers alike blame the law for costly delays, both because of the time it takes for agencies to issue reviews and then the risks that permits will be thrown out because of lawsuits. The bill would narrow the scope of environmental reviews, aligning with a unanimous US Supreme Court ruling this summer. But the bill's most significant changes would make permits more durable. Even if a court found a NEPA review was flawed, the bill would keep permits intact during further analysis. And in a last-minute change, the bill would offer more permit "certainty" by limiting the government's ability to rescind prior approvals. That could protect pipeline permits such as the now-canceled Keystone XL pipeline, while also stopping Trump from halting more offshore wind projects. But the permit certainty language drew concern from far-right conservatives who oppose offshore wind. House Republicans in response agreed to vote on an amendment sponsored by Harris and others that would remove the "permit certainty" changes. Two other amendment votes also backed by Harris would stop expedited permitting treatment in the SPEED Act for offshore wind or any project that Trump has sought to block. Passage of those amendments could cost some Democratic support for the bill. Even if the bill passes, it is expected to be subject to major changes in the US Senate to attract enough support from Democrats to prevent a filibuster. Senate Democrats are hoping to insert language that would prevent what they describe as a "solar ban" being enforced by the Trump administration. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil's 2025-26 soy planting at 94.1pc

25/12/16

Brazil's 2025-26 soy planting at 94.1pc

Sao Paulo, 16 December (Argus) — Brazil's 2025-26 soybean planting advanced to 94.1pc of the expected area in the week ended 13 December, according to national supply company Conab. Planting advanced by 3.8 percentage points from the week prior. The 2024-25 sowing was 96.8pc complete at this time in 2024. The five-year average for the period is 90.6pc. Sowing activities have finished in central-western Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul, southeastern Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais, and southern Parana states. Summer corn Planting for the 2025-26 first corn crop reached 77.5pc of Brazil's expected area, up by 6.2 percentage points on the week, according to Conab. That is slightly ahead of the 75pc planted at this time last year for the 2024-25 cycle. This season's progress is also ahead of the 70.3pc five-year average for the period. Parana and Sao Paulo have already finished planting. Cotton Planting activities for the 2025-26 cotton crop reached 10.1pc completion in the week ended 13 December, according to Conab. Activities advanced by 4.8 percentage points from the previous week. Northeastern Maranhao is the only state where activities have not started. Sowing nationwide is slightly above the five-year average for the period of 5.8pc, but below the 12.2pc pace in the same week last season. Wheat The 2025 wheat harvest advanced by 1.7 percentage points to 99.7pc of the area sowed nationwide in the week ended 13 December. The 2024 crop was 100pc harvested at this time a year ago. This season's progress is slightly ahead of the 98.7pc five-year average for the week. By Bruno Castro Planting progress % State 2025 2024 Five-year average 13 Dec 6 Dec 14 Dec Soybean crop, 2025-26 Tocantins 98.0 93.0 99.0 89.8 Maranhao 42.0 38.0 59.0 51.4 Piaui 88.0 78.0 94.0 76.2 Bahia 97.0 94.0 97.0 87.2 Mato Grosso 100.0 100.0 100.0 99.7 Mato Grosso do Sul 100.0 99.0 100.0 98.8 Goias 97.0 92.0 99.3 92.4 Minas Gerais 100.0 98.2 100.0 94.6 Sao Paulo 100.0 100.0 100.0 98.8 Parana 100.0 97.0 100.0 98.0 Santa Catarina 86.0 79.0 91.0 79.9 Rio Grande do Sul 81.0 69.0 91.0 70.6 Total 94.1 90.3 96.8 90.6 Summer corn crop, 2025-26 Maranhao 6.0 4.0 5.0 5.6 Piaui 8.0 4.0 10.0 5.2 Bahia 86.0 71.0 63.0 58.0 Goias 80.0 70.0 99.0 64.4 Minas Gerais 97.0 85.2 100.0 89.8 Sao Paulo 100.0 90.0 100.0 92.2 Parana 100.0 100.0 100.0 99.6 Santa Catarina 99.7 98.9 100.0 98.4 Rio Grande do Sul 90.0 87.0 88.0 86.0 Total 77.5 71.3 75.0 70.3 Cotton crop, 2025-26 Maranhao 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 Piaui 5.0 0.0 8.0 1.0 Bahia 32.0 20.0 43.0 21.6 Mato Grosso 2.4 0.8 2.5 0.9 Mato Grosso do Sul 22.0 10.0 45.0 16.6 Goias 45.0 5.0 54.0 21.2 Minas Gerais 33.0 16.0 38.0 13.4 Total 10.1 5.3 12.2 5.8 — Conab Harvesting progress % State 2025 2024 Five-year average 13 Dec 6 Dec 14 Dec Wheat crop, 2025 Goias 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Minas Gerais 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Bahia 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Rio Grande do Sul 100.0 99.0 100.0 96.2 Parana 100.0 99.0 100.0 99.6 Santa Catarina 93.0 74.0 100.0 85.0 Sao Paulo 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Mato Grosso do Sul 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Total 99.7 98.0 100.0 98.7 — Conab Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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