Argus Ammonia Analytics
Key features
Price forecasts: 15-years as well as 25-years
Quarterly 15-year and 25-year forecasts are provided for ammonia benchmark prices, including Middle East fob, Pivdenny fob, Baltic fob, USG/Caribbean fob, Tampa cfr, Far East cfr ex. Taiwan, India cfr, North Africa cfr, NW Europe cfr Excl. duty, NW Europe cfr Incl. duty, Southeast Asia fob Incl. Australia
Supply, demand and trade forecasts: 15-years
Quarterly 15-year forecasts and in-depth analysis is provided for ammonia supply, demand and trade. This includes ammonia capacity projects trackers, crop prices analysis and trade analysis focused on key countries and regions. Short and medium-term ammonia supply/demand balance included.
Cost curves
The service includes Argus traded supply curves for the previous year, current year and 5 years ahead (fob basis) for all key ammonia plants, updated quarterly. A unique, interactive online cost curve tool to analyse and interrogate cost curve data is included.
Clean ammonia: Analysis and outlook
The service includes industry-leading analysis and outlook for the clean ammonia sector. We provide Levelised Cost of Ammonia (LCOA) and Long-run ammonia pricing to 2050, and include demand modelling and forecast to 2050 for all end-use sectors, with regional breakouts. 15-year capacity forecasts are included (blue and green ammonia), as well as in-depth project analysis and tracker. Cost analysis employing LRMC is used for key cost factors (e.g. onshore and offshore wind, renewable generators, electrolysers).
Projects: Grey, blue and green ammonia
The service includes quarterly updates of our comprehensive grey, blue and green ammonia project trackers. We also include in-depth new and refreshed project reviews including analysis of access to resources, markets and capital, financial review, 25-year cash flow forecast and analysis and policy/regulatory insight
Costs/inputs analysis and forecasts
The service includes quarterly analysis and forecast of European natural gas markets, crude markets and capital cost inflation
Supplement: Methodology and Investment Analysis
The supplement is published once a year, and includes estimating LRMC, carbon-adjusted ammonia pricing, ETS carbon price methodology, renewable energy analysis for green ammonia supply, green LCOA and green ammonia LRMC modelling, blue ammonia production economics, demand modelling methodology
Best-in-class methodology
Our key methodologies include our demand forecasting model based on calorie and crop forecasts to guide our view of future fertilizer consumption and our Long-Run Marginal Cost (LRMC) multi-factor model to assess the level of prices beyond the current investment cycle
Quarterly reports
Narrative and graphical analysis of what is driving the ammonia market and how it is likely to evolve, ensuring you will be more confident in making critical decisions. Includes key insight on supply, demand, costs, trade and projects, with 15-year forecasts for supply, demand and prices
Customers that benefit
Subscribers of the service include: New entrants to the market such as energy players/utilities and players active in the shipping and marine fuels market, fertilizer producers, industrial users of ammonia (such as ACN, caprolactam and mining-grade AN), trading companies, importers and distributors, buying agencies, financial institutions, logistics companies, co-operatives, government agencies and associations around the world. Below are examples of clients that use this service:
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Producers and suppliers
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Traders
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Energy and utilities companies
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Shipping and port authorities
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Procurement teams
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Industry analysts
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Governments
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Financial institutions including bankers and investors
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Wholesalers
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Co-ops and retailers
Product specifications
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