Ammonia
Market moving insight on clean and conventional ammonia – delivering robust price assessments, actionable commentary, powerful data, vital analysis and outlooks
Overview
The ammonia market is undergoing a period of rapid and dramatic change. Conventional or ‘grey’ ammonia is traditionally produced almost exclusively for its nitrogen content. However, the urgent need to decarbonise the global economy and meet ambitious zero-carbon goals has opened up exciting new opportunities.
Ammonia has the potential to be the most cost-effective and practical ‘zero-carbon’ energy carrier in the form of hydrogen to the energy and fuels sectors. This has led to rapid growth of interest in clean ammonia and a flurry of new ‘green’ and ‘blue’ ammonia projects.
Argus has many decades of experience covering the ammonia market. We incorporate our multi-commodity market expertise in energy, marine fuels, the transition to net zero and hydrogen to provide existing market participants and new entrants with the full market narrative.
Our industry-leading price assessments, powerful data, vital analysis and robust outlooks will support you through:
- Ammonia price assessments (daily and weekly), some of which are basis for Argus ammonia futures contracts, Ammonia forward curve data and clean ammonia cost assessments and modelled weekly prices
- Short and medium to long-term forecasting, modelling and analysis of conventional and clean ammonia prices, supply, demand, trade and projects
- Bespoke consulting project support
Latest ammonia news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global ammonia industry.
UK's Atome takes FID on Paraguay green fertilizer plant
UK's Atome takes FID on Paraguay green fertilizer plant
Paris, 24 April (Argus) — UK fertilizer company Atome has taken a final investment decision (FID) on its 260,000 t/yr Villeta green fertilizers project in Paraguay. The decision follows several delays to the project, caused by engineering-phase setbacks. Atome listed on the London Stock Exchange in December 2021 and initially aimed to reach FID by mid-2022. Construction is planned to start "shortly" following FID and full production is expected to begin in or before October 2029, Atome said. The $665mn Villeta project is the largest electrolysis project to pass FID in Latin America. It will have a 120MW electrolyser, which will be powered by hydropower from state-owned utility Ande. Atome has secured financing for the Villeta project from a number of multilateral institutions and development banks, including the World Bank, the Green Climate Fund and the Inter-American Development Bank. But unlike most hydrogen projects globally, Atome has managed to reach FID without government subsidies. The project's equity investment is led by French hydrogen-focused fund Hy24 . Fertilizers produced in Villeta will be supplied to Norway's Yara under a binding 10-year offtake deal agreed last year , aiming to serve demand in South America. By Pamela Machado Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Costly fertiliser could weigh on Polish power use
Costly fertiliser could weigh on Polish power use
London, 23 April (Argus) — The higher cost of natural gas due to the US-Iran war could limit production of fertilisers and chemicals in Poland, weighing on the industry's power consumption. Polish chemicals company Grupa Azoty — which has a 48pc share of the Polish fertiliser market — is still running at capacity, unlike during the energy crisis of 2022, the firm told Argus . But high gas prices could eventually weigh on production. Chemical industry power use Poland's chemical industry — covering fertilisers, oil products, petrochemicals and other products — consumed 7.3TWh of electricity in 2024, accounting for 4.42pc of Polish demand, according to the latest data from Statistics Poland. Consumption rose by 2pc/yr in 2014-21, reaching 8.27TWh in 2021. But production dropped in 2022, when the energy crisis hit, falling by 5pc and then by a further 13pc in 2023. And while consumption increased in 2024, it only recovered to 2016 levels. The increase in oil and gas prices because of the Middle East conflict since late February has pushed up producers' fuel and raw material costs. Energy can account for 50–80pc of chemical sector production costs, according to industry chamber PIPC. Nitrogenous fertilisers — which made up 75pc of Polish fertiliser production in 2021-25 — use gas as a feedstock and a fuel. The TTF everyday price has risen by 37pc since the start of the conflict and was 23pc up on the year in March. And the price of German CAN fertiliser — indicative of nitrogenous fertiliser prices in the region — has risen by €95/t to €437.50/t since 26 February . Continued disruption could curb demand if farmers use less fertiliser on crops in the face of rising costs, Grupa Azoty said. In 2022, Polish fertiliser output fell because of surging energy prices. Nitrogenous fertiliser production fell by 17pc in 2022 and by 15pc in 2023. But Polish producers might now be in a stronger position, as they face less competition from imports made with cheaper gas owing to new EU tariffs. And since the start of 2026, the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism adds a carbon charge to imports of fertilisers. Poland's fertiliser output was up by 2pc on the year to 411,000t in January-February, although output is still lower than pre-2022 levels. March figures have yet to be released. Little change in production methods Electricity demand in energy-intensive sectors, such as the manufacture of fertilisers and basic chemicals, is "expected to increase" in the longer term, driven by electrification and hydrogen production, PIPC told Argus, although it noted that Poland is constrained by a lack of "affordable renewable electricity and supporting infrastructure". So far, Grupa Azoty says there have have been no changes to production that would "materially" increase its electricity consumption. For now, it is focusing on efficiency improvements that could reduce gas use. Grupa Azoty is "analysing" the viability of partial electrification and adoption of low-emission and green ammonia in operations, but stressed that changes are contingent on "competitively priced" renewable energy. Wind and solar accounted for a combined 27pc of Polish generation last year. But 68pc was from gas, coal or lignite. Outlook for hydrogen in Polish fertilisers Hydrogen — a key component in ammonia — can be produced from natural gas or by electrolysis. Producing ammonia with hydrogen from electrolysis increases power input requirements to 9–12MWh per tonne, compared with roughly 1MWh needed for natural gas-based hydrogen, according to IEA estimates. Poland aims to build 2GW of electrolysis capacity by 2030. But none of Poland's industrial sectors has adopted electrolysis at scale yet, the climate and environment ministry has told Argus . Electrolysis capacity currently stands at 7.5MW. National development bank BGK agreed subsidies in October for five projects with a combined electrolysis capacity of 343MW. But no renewable hydrogen project has reached a final investment decision in Poland to date. Renewable power supply, grid infrastructure and storage capacity might not be sufficient to meet existing targets, PIPC told Argus . And the higher cost of renewable hydrogen relative to fossil-based hydrogen could further "weaken the competitiveness" of Poland's chemical industry. By Jessamy Guest Chemical power, gas use TWh (power LHS, gas RHS) Power consumption, fertiliser output TWh, mn t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Japan's Shikoku exits clean power auction on NH3 lack
Japan's Shikoku exits clean power auction on NH3 lack
Tokyo, 23 April (Argus) — Japanese power utility Shikoku Electric Power decided to withdraw from the country's clean power auction because it failed to procure ammonia for co-firing at its 500MW Saijo No.1 coal-fired power generation unit in Ehime prefecture. Shikoku had planned to upgrade its Saijo No.1 unit and begin 20pc ammonia co-firing from the April 2030-March 2031 fiscal year, following a successful bid in the 2025 clean power auction . The auction aims to spur investment in clean power sources by securing funding for fixed costs in advance to drive the country's decarbonisation by 2050. But Shikoku decided to exit the auction because it does not expect to procure fuel ammonia as planned, the firm said on 23 April. Shikoku did not disclose details of its original plan, including the supply source and procurement schedule. But the utility partnered with domestic trading house Mitsubishi, refiner Taiyo Oil, car maker Mazda and industrial gas supplier Nippon Sanso in April 2023 to explore handling 1mn t/yr of ammonia at Namikata terminal in Ehime. And Mitsubishi agreed to purchase blue ammonia from ExxonMobil's Baytown project in Texas in the US. But ExxonMobil has suspended its plans to build the production facilities because of weaker than expected demand. Shikoku will continue to explore ammonia co-firing at its Saijo No.1 unit. The utility declined to disclose further details, including potential fuel sources and a renewed schedule. The company is unsure if it will join the auction again after securing an ammonia supply. By Nanami Oki Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brunei’s BFI to explore ammonia export expansion
Brunei’s BFI to explore ammonia export expansion
London, 20 April (Argus) — State-owned fertilizer producer Brunei Fertilizer Industries (BFI) is exploring the possibility of building an ammonia export terminal for its 759,000 t/yr plant at Sungai Liang Industrial Park. The plant currently feeds a 1.35mn t/yr granular urea unit, with minimal surplus capacity for ammonia exports. BFI has yet to indicate any plans to expand ammonia production capacity in order to facilitate future exports, but could export small volumes of ammonia during downstream maintenances. Engineering firm Thyssenkrupp Uhde has been chosen to undertake a front-end engineering design study for the project, which will include a cryogenic ammonia storage tank, a dedicated ammonia export facility, jetty integration and a ship-loading system, all with the aim of allowing "large-scale exports to global markets", Thyssenkrupp said in a press release. A timeline for the project was not provided. BFI's integrated ammonia and urea unit came on line in 2021, ramping up to full capacity the following year. The producer typically exports 1-2 lots of 30,000 t/month of granular urea to global markets from Muara port. BFI also has a jetty at the Sungai Liang site from which it loads small cargoes of granular urea, typically up to 6,000t. Trading activity for smaller 4,000-6,000t ammonia shipments has increased in east Asia over the past few years and any additional supply from Brunei could potentially deliver to import regions such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, Taiwan and South Korea. By Lizzy Lancaster Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
