Ammonia
Overview
The ammonia market is undergoing a period of rapid and dramatic change. Conventional or ‘grey’ ammonia is traditionally produced almost exclusively for its nitrogen content. However, the urgent need to decarbonise the global economy and meet ambitious zero-carbon goals has opened up exciting new opportunities.
Ammonia has the potential to be the most cost-effective and practical ‘zero-carbon’ energy carrier in the form of hydrogen to the energy and fuels sectors. This has led to rapid growth of interest in clean ammonia and a flurry of new ‘green’ and ‘blue’ ammonia projects.
Argus has many decades of experience covering the ammonia market. We incorporate our multi-commodity market expertise in energy, marine fuels, the transition to net zero and hydrogen to provide existing market participants and new entrants with the full market narrative.
Our industry-leading price assessments, powerful data, vital analysis and robust outlooks will support you through:
- Ammonia price assessments (daily and weekly), some of which are basis for Argus ammonia futures contracts, Ammonia forward curve data and clean ammonia cost assessments and modelled weekly prices
- Short and medium to long-term forecasting, modelling and analysis of conventional and clean ammonia prices, supply, demand, trade and projects
- Bespoke consulting project support
Latest ammonia news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global ammonia industry.
Global fertilizer affordability near three-year low
Global fertilizer affordability near three-year low
London, 2 July (Argus) — Global affordability for fertilizers has dropped to its lowest in nearly three years on a sustained increase in fertilizer prices — as strong global demand competes for limited supply — while crop values have dipped to the lowest since September 2020. Nutrient affordability fell to 0.75 points in June, the lowest since September 2022, Argus data show. An affordability index — comprising a fertilizer and crop index — above one indicates that fertilizers are more affordable compared with the base year set in 2004. An index below one indicates lower nutrient affordability. The fertilizer index fell in June owing to higher fertilizer prices for phosphates while an increase in urea prices in June added further support to the index. The Israel-Iran conflict firmed market sentiment across all nutrients in June, which has also added some volatility to freight rates. Phosphate prices saw the largest gains, with June prices at the highest since September 2022 on persistent demand from India in the absence of inflows of Chinese DAP supply. DAP prices have kept moving up as tight supply has kept driving the market at both sides of the Suez Canal. Chinese suppliers have been sitting comfortably with limited supply availability, which enabled them to increase offers in the face of African and southeast Asian demand. In the west, buyers have been struggling to secure limited MAP supply, also supporting prices. On potash, MOP prices have reached the highest in two years driven by geopolitical uncertainty and robust demand in all major markets, particularly in southeast Asia, where affordability levels have been supported by excellent palm oil prices. Meanwhile, on the potash supply side, availability was expected to be reduced from three major producers — Uralkali, Belaruskali and Eurochem — as they underwent maintenance works. Together, these works were expected to reduce MOP output by 1.3mn t across the first half of the year, further underpinning prices. Urea prices rose to the highest in four months as the Middle East conflict pushed prices up on output curtailment while strong fundamentals — driven by Indian demand — continued to support prices. On the other hand, the crop index — which includes global prices for corn, wheat, rice and soybeans adjusted by output volumes — have fallen to a near five-year low. By Lili Minton and Elena Mataro Global fertilizer affordability index Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia’s BHP charters ammonia-fuelled carriers
Australia’s BHP charters ammonia-fuelled carriers
Sydney, 2 July (Argus) — Australian miner BHP and China's largest shipping company Cosco have signed a deal to charter two ammonia dual-fuelled Newcastlemax bulk carriers, expected to be delivered in 2028, BHP announced today. The vessels will be used as part of BHP's 255mn-265.5mn t/yr iron ore trade on shipments between Western Australia (WA) and northeast Asia, the miner said on 2 July. Ammonia-fuelled transport will cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 50-95pc per voyage compared with traditional bunker oil, BHP said. BHP will continue to work on an ammonia bunkering plan in WA ahead of delivery, it said. Several companies are eyeing blue and green hydrogen opportunities in the Pilbara iron ore mining region to meet expected maritime demand. Cosco in January ordered eight Newcastlemax bulk carriers with methanol- and ammonia-ready class notation, allowing for bunkering using either fuel once an engine is selected. The Pilbara region's proximity to offshore gas fields and local port authority Pilbara Ports' status as the world's largest bulk operator has led firms including blue ammonia developer NH3 Clean Energy to plan bunkering facilities in WA. Norwegian firm Yara, which operates the 800,000 t/yr Pilbara ammonia plant, is exploring carbon capture and storage deals to cut its GHG emissions, while jointly developing a 10MW, 640 t/yr green hydrogen facility at the site due to come on line in late 2025 . Danish investment fund CIP's Murchison Green Hydrogen project was awarded A$814mn ($535mn) in federal government production credits in March for a proposed green ammonia export facility expected to commence operations in WA's Mid West region in 2032. Ammonia bunkering on the WA-China iron ore corridor could meet up to 5pc of total shipments annually by 2030 , but this would require 23 vessels operating around 70 Newcastlemax voyages by 2028, according to a 2023 Global Maritime Forum feasibility study. Fellow member of the "big four" iron ore producers in Pilbara Australian miner Fortescue signed an initial agreement with Cosco in 2024 for green ammonia-powered vessels . It signed a chartering agreement with shipowner Bocimar in April 2025 for an ammonia-fuelled carrier to be delivered by late 2026. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Alternative-fuel ship orders fall in 1H 25: DNV
Alternative-fuel ship orders fall in 1H 25: DNV
Sao Paulo, 1 July (Argus) — Orders for new alternative-fuelled vessels fell in the first half of 2025 from a year earlier, according to Norway-based classification agency DNV. It said 151 new alternative-fueled vessels were ordered, down from 179 in the same period in 2024. These orders represented 19.8mn gross tonnes (GT), up by 78pc from the same period in 2024. LNG-fueled vessels accounted for 87 of the new orders in the first half, followed by methanol-fueled ships, with 40. DNV said 17 were LPG-fueled vessels, followed by hydrogen with four orders and ammonia with three. Orders for alternative-fueled vessels totaled 19 in June, up from 16 in May. The orders included 11 LNG-fueled vessels, four methanol-fueled ships, two hydrogen-fueled vessels, and two LPG carriers. By Natália Coelho New orders, 1H 2025 Fuel Number of vessels LNG-fueled 87 Methanol-fueled 40 LPG-fueled 17 Hydrogen-fueled 4 Ammonia-fueled 3 DNV Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Potential Hormuz closure threatens ferts, sulphur trade
Potential Hormuz closure threatens ferts, sulphur trade
London, 23 June (Argus) — Iran's threat to "close" the strait of Hormuz in response to the US military attack on its nuclear sites over the weekend risks disrupting 20-50pc of international trade in urea, sulphur, phosphate and ammonia. The risk is primarily to buyers of fertilizer and associated raw materials outside the Mideast Gulf as, with the exception of sulphuric acid, potash and some niche products, the flow of trade is dominated by exports. Fully half of global seaborne sulphur trade originates from the Mideast Gulf — 20mn t this year, according to Argus Analytics — which goes primarily to China, Morocco and Tunisia, and for mining users in southern and central Africa. Sulphur is a key raw material for making phosphate fertilizers. Some substitution for sulphur by merchant sulphuric acid is possible but the sulphuric acid markets are already tight. Urea markets also have a substantial degree of exposure to potential disruption to shipments from the Mideast Gulf, with around a third of seaborne trade supplied from the region. Exports from the Mideast Gulf are forecast at around 18mn t this year by Argus Analytics , from a global total of 56mn t. The major destinations for Middle East urea during the third quarter each year are typically Brazil, India, Thailand and Australia. Ammonia exports from the Mideast Gulf account for around a fifth of global trade. Shipments this year from Mideast Gulf producers averaged around 365,000 t/month, according to Argus ' tracking of loaded vessels, with the main buyers being fertilizer producers in India and Morocco, which have taken 830,000t and 315,000t, respectively, and mostly industrial buyers in South Korea, which have taken 335,000t. For phosphates, the main risk is to the supply of MAP and DAP from Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia's Ma'aden produces around 20pc of the 17mn t/yr of seaborne trade in MAP and 14pc of the 12mn t/yr of DAP trade, with India typically the largest recipient of the latter, in terms of quantity, during the third quarter. All DAP and MAP shipments, plus some NPS, are loaded from Ras al-Khair. On the import side, the greatest impact from any disruption to shipments in the region would be on sulphuric acid. Ma'aden is expected to import around 700,000t of sulphuric acid through Ras al-Khair in 2025, and line-up data show nearly 500,000t of acid will be shipped in the first seven months of the year, mainly from Asia-Pacific origins such as west coast India and China. Few alternative loading mechanisms are available to bypass any disruption to the strait of Hormuz. The UAE port of Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman can load bulk cargoes, but in the event of significant regional disruption the port might not be able to prioritise fertilizer exports over other commodities. It is also on the far side of the country from the urea and sulphur production facilities. Saudi Arabia has several Red Sea ports, but distances overland from production sites close to the Mideast Gulf make this route operationally and commercially challenging. The threat of disruption has so far not prevented trade in and stevedoring of cargoes within the region — including shipments from Iran's ports of Bandar Imam Khomeini and Asaluyeh — which continued over the weekend. By Bede Heren Mideast Gulf fertilizer and related raw material exports Product Exports ('000 t/yr) % of seaborne trade Sulphur 20,058 50 Urea 17,978 32 Ammonia 3,635 21 MAP 3,480 20 includes exports from Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE — Argus Analytics Mideast Gulf ports Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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