

Ammonia
Overview
The ammonia market is undergoing a period of rapid and dramatic change. Conventional or ‘grey’ ammonia is traditionally produced almost exclusively for its nitrogen content. However, the urgent need to decarbonise the global economy and meet ambitious zero-carbon goals has opened up exciting new opportunities.
Ammonia has the potential to be the most cost-effective and practical ‘zero-carbon’ energy carrier in the form of hydrogen to the energy and fuels sectors. This has led to rapid growth of interest in clean ammonia and a flurry of new ‘green’ and ‘blue’ ammonia projects.
Argus has many decades of experience covering the ammonia market. We incorporate our multi-commodity market expertise in energy, marine fuels, the transition to net zero and hydrogen to provide existing market participants and new entrants with the full market narrative.
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Latest ammonia news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global ammonia industry.
Q&A: Norway’s Scatec targets rare H2 demand ‘pockets’
Q&A: Norway’s Scatec targets rare H2 demand ‘pockets’
London, 4 February (Argus) — Norwegian renewables developer Scatec is pursuing opportunities in hydrogen production, particularly in the Middle East. The firm in 2023 quit a joint venture in Oman, but is progressing in Egypt and has secured an offtaker in Germany's state-backed H2Global auction initiative. Chief executive Terje Pilskog shared his views on the state of the hydrogen industry in the Middle East and the company's approach to near-term challenges. Edited highlights follow: Has the outlook for renewable hydrogen shifted in the past 12-18 months? There is more realism about the industry's growth rate, but the fundamentals haven't changed — green hydrogen is still important for decarbonising several industries. But clearly the pace is slower than expected and we must recognise there was some hype. In the end, securing offtake drives projects forward. Demand is moving significantly slower than what was assumed a couple of years ago. Delivery time for the first H2Global project is late 2027, and for larger projects towards 2030 is more realistic. Why did Scatec exit Oman, which others consider the place to be? Oman has the key requirements for producing green hydrogen and ammonia competitively, and its government has enabled development. But not much can happen, as most companies won't take final investment decisions (FIDs) without offtake deals. There's a lot of support from the authorities, but massive greenfield projects are complicated, with infrastructure for hydrogen, ammonia and shipping needed. When we pulled out of the project we were involved in, it was because we didn't see the demand coming. And we didn't feel comfortable with the timelines relative to when we expected to see demand coming in. Why did Scatec advance its project in Egypt? We've been in Egypt a long time and we are familiar with the country and the regulation. Egypt has mostly the same fundamentals as Oman, like available land and great renewable resources — even better wind conditions. Egypt is nicely located if green ammonia is used as marine fuel and because it is near Europe as an offtaker. The good thing about Egypt is its existing ammonia industry, with 3-4 large facilities. Our logic was that — because demand was coming slowly — in Egypt we could build incrementally at a scale that is possible to secure offtake. And the required investment would be lower because the ammonia export facility already has storage and port infrastructure. To be completely greenfield, you must target 700,000-1mn t/yr of green ammonia to be cost-competitive. Our joint project with Fertiglobe is for 70,000-75,000 t/yr — relatively small compared with the volumes people have talked about, but still of a size where it's possible to get offtake. The project secured an award from the H2Global tender last year, so now we are completing the FEED and financing, and we plan to reach FID in the first half of 2025. The capital costs are $0.5bn — not as much as everybody dreamed, but still sizeable. We are building 300MW of renewables and 100MW of electrolysis, so it's still going to be among the largest projects in 2027-28. What are Scatec's priorities over the next 12-24 months? We are developing a similar project at Damietta on the north coast of Egypt with Mopco and Echem that is 2-2.5 times larger. We have signed heads of terms with Yara and we aim to conclude the deal over the next 6-12 months so the project can move forward. We have focused very narrowly over the past two years to ensure these two projects succeed. We have been asked by countries to start development. It's the usual suspects, especially in north Africa. You have fundamentals for green hydrogen in Morocco, in Tunisia — countries that we know. Those are candidates. But my perspective is that the train, on a global basis, is not leaving the station. If we get to the FID stage on the first two projects, with the competence we are building we're going to have other opportunities. That does not mean that we wait until 2027 to do anything else, but it's clear what our first, second and third priorities are at this time. Do you like the land allocation model of countries such as Oman and Morocco? Each country has its own approach. From a developer's point of view, auctioning land is a bit challenging, as it adds costs, especially if you pay up-front. You might take two years before FID and a lot can happen in two years, so it's challenging to take on that exposure up-front. But it sets a certain standard in terms of who can participate, and if you want to attract the big guys, those are the ones that have the capability to go for that kind of opportunity. These are big projects, so it's important to screen a bit. But from my point of view, the key thing is creating the optimal framework for projects in your country. That's about making sure infrastructure is in place, things move quickly and projects are cost-competitive. It is a competition, as everybody in this region wants to become a green hydrogen hub. What H2 infrastructure should the Middle East region prioritise? Port facilities — storage and loading. It can be bunkering facilities, if you believe it could be a significant fuel for the marine industry. Enabling production near ports is important. The other factor is electricity infrastructure. Our project in Egypt needs grid availability, but others operate in ‘island mode'. Many countries in the region need more renewable energy, and you can end up with hydrogen facilities competing with other initiatives. So thinking through how to provide stable renewable electricity is important. Investors need plans to be clear, predictable and actually implemented. Our experience in Egypt is good. The authorities are implementing structures and regulations that enable us to advance projects. What is your biggest ask from governments? What is holding back development today is not the possibility of doing projects. It's the demand side. As long as it is free to emit CO2, it will be difficult to close the gap between green and grey hydrogen. It might be wishful thinking, but a global price for emitting CO2 would be ideal. Regional CO2 pricing is helpful and creates demand in pockets. But it adds costs for that region, which — from a global competition perspective — is not good. Europe's H2Global mechanism is helpful to cover the difference. There might be other pockets, like dual-fuel engine ships that can run partly on clean fuels. Obviously, you need global regulation, as companies cannot move alone. But for end consumers, transporting a pair of sneakers on a ship that uses green ammonia adds insignificant cost. Wouldn't customers for Tesla cars want them transported to Europe in an environmentally-friendly way? And they aren't the most price-sensitive. So, while you cannot do it on a global basis, there are pockets where you can start. How could the change of US administration impact hydrogen? It's a bit difficult. President Trump will not do anything that hurts American business, and climate is far down on his list of priorities. He will support hydrogen to the extent that it benefits US companies to be at the forefront of an industry, but he will not implement specific things in the US. That puts the US hydrogen industry at a disadvantage relative to the rest of the world. He will not lead the change with the US in front. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Study calls for e-fuels bunker subsidies, GHG tax
Study calls for e-fuels bunker subsidies, GHG tax
New York, 30 January (Argus) — E-fuel subsidies and a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions tax is needed for e-fuels to compete as a bunkering fuel before 2044, said a study by maritime consultancy University Maritime Advisory Services (Umas) and the UCL Energy Institute. The study found that adding a multiplier of the GHG intensity credit given to e-fuels could help to make e-fuel use financially competitive, but it would have to be set at high levels at the start. Using a multiplier of two, where one ship running on zero emissions e-fuel could generate credits to offset three other similar ships operating on conventional fossil fuels, was not able to make e-fuels more competitive before 2041. The multiplier would have to be set initially at 15 in 2030, falling to 10 by 2035, to enable the competitiveness of e-fuels, concludes the study. Additionally, levying a GHG tax or fee of $150-$300/t of CO2-equivalent would also make e-fuels more competitive. A tax of $30-$120/t CO2e is close to the aggregate level of subsidies, and would not create a sustained promotion of e-fuels. Under the current marine fuel standards, a combination of fossil fuels, including LNG, biofuels and carbon capture and storage systems would be most competitive up until 2036. After, blue ammonia dual fuel ships would be the lowest-cost solution until 2044. Ships that were more competitive from 2027-2035 would have at least 25pc higher operating cost from 2040 onwards. Thus, if ship owners order newbuild vessels to maximize short-term competitiveness, the sector is at a "major risk of technology lock-in" and will not be as cost-effective for reaching net zero by 2050. The study models a 2027-build, 14,000 twenty-foot equivalent unit container ship. The vessel sails between Asia and Latin America using different marine fuels such as bio-methanol, e-methanol, LNG, bio-LNG, e-LNG, bio-marine gasoil (MGO), e-MGO and very low-sulphur fuel oil. By Stefka Wechsler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Spain's Moeve joins FMC with net zero bunkers pledge
Spain's Moeve joins FMC with net zero bunkers pledge
Madrid, 21 January (Argus) — Spain-based integrated energy company Moeve, formerly Cepsa, has joined the First Movers Coalition — a group of large private-sector companies aiming to decarbonise hard-to-abate industries such as steel, aluminium and shipping — with a new target to increase the use of emission-free marine fuels in its own fleet. Moeve — Spain's largest supplier of conventional marine fuels — has pledged that at least 5pc of its deep-sea shipping fleet will run on emission-free marine fuels by 2030 as it expands capacity in low and zero emission bunkers. The company is developing a 300,000 t/yr e-methanol production facility with Danish shipping firm Maersk's affiliate C2X at its 220,000 b/d refinery in Huelva, Southern Spain. Maersk is also part of the First Movers Coalition. Moeve also plans to bring online a 750,000 t/yr green ammonia plant at its 244,000 b/d Algeciras refinery in 2027 as part of its plant to build 2GW of hydrogen electrolysis in southern Spain by 2030. Moeve joins other Spanish companies including power utility Iberdrola and steelmaker Egui in the First Movers Coalition. The First Movers Coalition was launched at the UN Cop 26 climate summit in Glasgow in November 2021. It is focussed on addressing sectors such as shipping, steel making and aviation, where emissions are hard to abate. These industries are responsible for around 30pc of global emissions, according to the coalition. By Jonathan Gleave Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Nutrient affordability remains weak into 2025
Nutrient affordability remains weak into 2025
London, 13 January (Argus) — Global fertilizer affordability is still weak into 2025 as high fertilizer prices — mainly for urea — continue to weigh on farmer affordability. Nutrient affordability fell to 0.94 points in the first week of January, unable to recover from a declining trend that started in October 2024. An affordability index — comprised of a fertilizer and a crop index — above one indicates that fertilizers are more affordable, compared with the base year, which was set in 2004. An index below one indicates lower nutrient affordability. The fertilizer index — which includes global prices for urea, DAP and potash, adjusted by global usage — reached the highest value since October, driven by firmer urea prices, which weighs heavily on the fertilizer index owing to the relatively higher global usage when compared with DAP and potash fertilizers. Prices for urea climbed to levels last seen in late 2023, with activity ramping up across the globe. Prices appear well supported through the month with India entering the market over the weekend, seeking 1.5mn t of urea for loading by early March. A slight increase in the crop index owing to a rise in the first week of January for corn and soybeans was unable to offset higher fertilizer prices as the new year started. Crop prices for corn and soybeans, which represent 52pc of global consumption for key crops, also rose into early January following lower production estimates made by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) for the upcoming crop campaign in the US. The USDA revised earlier estimates made for the 2024-25 corn and soybeans crop by 1.8pc and 2pc, respectively. By Lili Minton and Harry Minihan Global fertilizer affordability Index Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Global Ammonia market outlook
Insight papers - 28/11/24Integrating clean ammonia: Chain of custody approaches
Unique analysis of the ammonia industry’s efforts to decarbonise, focusing on the search for the most efficient and cost-effective way to integrate low-carbon molecules into an existing ammonia supply chain.
Podcast - 08/11/24Fertilizer Matters EP23: Asia Fertilizer Market, Nov 2024
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Related events
Argus Clean Ammonia Europe Conference
Argus Clean Ammonia Europe Conference
Argus Clean Ammonia India, Middle East & Africa Conference
Argus Clean Ammonia India, Middle East & Africa Conference
