Ammonia
Market moving insight on clean and conventional ammonia – delivering robust price assessments, actionable commentary, powerful data, vital analysis and outlooks
Overview
The ammonia market is undergoing a period of rapid and dramatic change. Conventional or ‘grey’ ammonia is traditionally produced almost exclusively for its nitrogen content. However, the urgent need to decarbonise the global economy and meet ambitious zero-carbon goals has opened up exciting new opportunities.
Ammonia has the potential to be the most cost-effective and practical ‘zero-carbon’ energy carrier in the form of hydrogen to the energy and fuels sectors. This has led to rapid growth of interest in clean ammonia and a flurry of new ‘green’ and ‘blue’ ammonia projects.
Argus has many decades of experience covering the ammonia market. We incorporate our multi-commodity market expertise in energy, marine fuels, the transition to net zero and hydrogen to provide existing market participants and new entrants with the full market narrative.
Our industry-leading price assessments, powerful data, vital analysis and robust outlooks will support you through:
- Ammonia price assessments (daily and weekly), some of which are basis for Argus ammonia futures contracts, Ammonia forward curve data and clean ammonia cost assessments and modelled weekly prices
- Short and medium to long-term forecasting, modelling and analysis of conventional and clean ammonia prices, supply, demand, trade and projects
- Bespoke consulting project support
Latest ammonia news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global ammonia industry.
CBAM documents outline preliminary ammonia values
CBAM documents outline preliminary ammonia values
London, 17 December (Argus) — CBAM documents outline preliminary ammonia values Preliminary documents from the European Commission released today confirm details for the ammonia free allocations benchmark and country-specific default values in the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). The documents outline that the ammonia free allocations benchmark is being revised lower to 1.522t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e), down from 1.57t, in line with leaked documentation seen last week . This will be subject to a 2.5pc reduction in 2026, lowering it to 1.484t. The documents are likely to be made official in 2026. The preliminary documents also confirm that the default emissions value for US ammonia is being revised to 3.44t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2026, with most other key supply regions to Europe in line with previous estimates. Algeria is valued at 2.10t CO2e in 2026, Trinidad is higher at 2.44t CO2e, and Egypt is 2.07t CO2e. The default emissions values apply if there are no verified emissions data available for the imported product. The default value for US anhydrous ammonia has increased because the production route for US ammonia has changed from natural gas to petroleum coke, which has resulted in the steep rise to the emissions value. The commission has outlined a 1pc mark-up for all country default values in 2026. Theoretical default costs range up to $196/t for ammonia supplied from the US into Europe, with Trinidad supply at $96/t, Algeria valued at $62/t, and Egypt at $59/t. This is based on the prompt emissions trading system (ETS) price of $100.35/t on 16 December. The Argus Fertilizer CBAM calculator can be accessed here . By Ruth Sharpe Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump unlikely to reinstate Canada ferts tariffs: TFI
Trump unlikely to reinstate Canada ferts tariffs: TFI
Houston, 11 December (Argus) — US fertilizer industry group The Fertilizer Institute (TFI) expects US president Donald Trump does not intend to reinstate reciprocal tariffs on imported Canadian fertilizer products after previously commenting he could. Earlier this week when asked what action the Trump administration may take to bolster domestic fertilizer output and the US's reliance on imports from countries like Canada, Trump relayed that the US could impose severe tariffs "if we have to" and with those tariffs the US could be making its own fertilizer "very soon." "Based on information that we have at this time, including conversations with USDA officials, these comments do not indicate a change in current policy," TFI said Wednesday. "An open, fair, predictable, and transparent trading environment with key partners like Canada is vital to maintaining a stable, affordable supply of the crop nutrients US growers rely on," TFI noted. Following Trump's comments, several market participants agreed that it seemed unlikely tariffs would be reimposed on Canadian fertilizer imports given their status of being USMCA compliant and that tariffs would do little to improve the near-term fertilizer production outlook. The fertilizer market is "numb" to these kinds of comments, one distributor said. On a nutrient basis the US imported 98pc of its potash in 2023 and about 85pc of those imports came from Canada, according to TFI. The US imported 33pc of its urea consumption on a nutrient basis in 2023; 15pc of imports came from Canada, according to estimates from TFI. For ammonia, the US imported 12pc of its consumption, 50pc of which came from Canada. Also, 35pc of US ammonium sulfate imports came from Canada in 2024, according to US Census Bureau data. By Taylor Zavala Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Q&A: GH2 Solar outlines gaps slowing India’s H2 plans
Q&A: GH2 Solar outlines gaps slowing India’s H2 plans
Mumbai, 9 December (Argus) — Indian renewable energy firm GH2 Solar recently began construction of an alkaline electrolyser manufacturing plant in Madhya Pradesh, with an initial capacity of 105 MW/yr that it aims to expand to 500 MW/yr. The plant is developed with South Korea's AHES and UK-based Rhizome2, and received roughly 1.6bn rupees ($17.8mn) under India's second electrolyser manufacturing subsidy round. GH2 Solar also plans to build its own renewable hydrogen production facilities, having secured three-year subsidies for 10,500 t/yr of output. Argus spoke with managing director Anurag Jain and vice-president of business development and corporate strategy Sanjeev Sharma about the company's plans, views on Indian policy and localisation of key components for electrolysers. Edited highlights follow: What are the main challenges that GH2 Solar and other Indian companies face in bringing hydrogen and electrolyser projects to fruition? The challenges are quite multifaceted. For GH2 Solar, and most other Indian developers, the biggest hurdle is project bankability. The policy direction is clear, but long-term offtake certainty and stable price signals are still evolving, making lenders cautious. These are highly capital-intensive projects that combine renewable generation, balance-of-plant and storage, which means long financing cycles. Another issue is the intermittency of renewable energy, which affects electrolyser efficiency and utilisation. Managing that through batteries, round-the-clock power or hydrogen storage adds cost and complexity. India still imports critical components such as membranes and catalysts, so building a resilient domestic supply chain will take time. Add to that the need for skilled manpower, unified standards and insurance frameworks — it's a steep but achievable learning curve. How do you view India's tenders? Are they effective in driving adoption? The tenders have created momentum. The production-linked incentives (PLIs) and the National Green Hydrogen Mission bids have drawn strong private participation and signalled government commitment. But we must recognise they are first-generation schemes. Some frameworks expect immediate commercial viability and deep localisation, which can be unrealistic early on. We need longer offtake tenors, payment security mechanisms and phased localisation milestones. But the direction is right. The tenders have put India firmly on the global hydrogen map. What additional policy or regulatory measures could accelerate the sector? India should move quickly to introduce contracts for difference (CfDs) or carbon CfDs to bridge the cost gap between grey and green hydrogen. That single mechanism can transform project bankability. A national hydrogen exchange or government-anchored offtake pool would aggregate demand and provide transparent price discovery. We also need a payment security fund, harmonised pipeline and grid codes, and continued fiscal support for electrolyser research and development, especially for membranes and catalysts. What are the biggest challenges for developing a fully indigenous electrolyser manufacturing ecosystem in India? True localisation goes far beyond assembly. The challenge lies in mastering advanced materials — membranes, coated bipolar plates and catalysts — and building high-precision chemical and metallurgical capabilities. Domestic demand must scale enough to justify the capital intensity of these facilities. We also need accredited testing and certification centres in India to validate stack life and performance so that Indian-made systems are globally bankable. How can project financing for green hydrogen become more viable? Financing will follow predictability. Mechanisms such as CfDs, minimum-volume guarantees or sovereign-backed payment windows can provide stable revenue floors. Blended finance — mixing concessional debt and DFI [development finance institutions] participation — will lower the cost of capital. Allowing hydrogen assets to earn ancillary-service revenue from the grid can also enhance project economics. And finally, standardised project templates and due-diligence protocols will shorten financial-closure timelines. Offtake remains a bottleneck. What measures could resolve this? We need an aggregated demand framework. A government-backed platform that bundles demand from refineries, fertilisers, city-gas networks and even corporate buyers could issue unified offtake tenders. Sectoral mandates — such as blending targets in piped natural gas or compressed natural gas and substitution quotas in refineries — will anchor baseline demand. Tradeable green-molecule certificates would let corporates purchase decarbonisation credits even if they don't consume hydrogen physically. Internationally, India should also participate in global offtake auctions with the EU, Japan and Korea. What is GH2 Solar's long-term strategy for green hydrogen and its derivatives? Our strategy is to create an end-to-end green hydrogen ecosystem — from renewable electrons to green molecules. We're setting up a 105 MW/yr electrolyser manufacturing facility in Madhya Pradesh. Civil works are progressing, equipment orders are being worked out and pilot production is planned for late 2026, with full-scale operations set for 2027. We are simultaneously developing green hydrogen production facilities. In the short term, our focus is on domestic decarbonisation — supplying green hydrogen to refineries, fertiliser and industrial clients. In the medium term, we will expand into green ammonia — we have already announced a 100,000 t/yr green ammonia facility with two partners — and e-methanol and SAF [sustainable aviation fuel], especially for export markets. What is your view on the use of Chinese electrolysers in Indian projects? It is a pragmatic bridge. Chinese systems are currently cost-competitive and available quickly, which helps early adopters prove the business case. But India must avoid long-term dependence. Every import should come with localisation and technology-transfer clauses so that we can build domestic capability over the next 3-5 years. Our goal should be cost parity and self-reliance, not permanent import dependence. GH2 Solar was awarded the support for the electrolyser capacity with high local-value-addition (LVA) targets. How will you achieve these? We have created a detailed localisation roadmap. In the first year, we will source and assemble all balance-of-plant, frames, power electronics and casing domestically, importing only few specialised components, achieving 80pc LVA. From year two onwards, we will indigenise stack components through technology partnerships with Indian material suppliers, reaching more than 90pc localisation. Which components still need to be imported? At present, we still need to import membranes, catalysts and coated bipolar plates — the high-tech core of the stack. Domestic production of these components should start in the next 18-36 months through our joint venture and targeted PLI support. With consistent policy and demand visibility, India can achieve full indigenous capability within five years. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Pattern Energy pauses Newfoundland green H2 plan
Pattern Energy pauses Newfoundland green H2 plan
Houston, 26 November (Argus) — US clean energy developer Pattern Energy has suspended plans to build a renewable hydrogen and ammonia facility in Newfoundland and will instead move forward with a standalone wind farm. Pattern's Canadian subsidiary, Argentia Renewable Wind LP, withdrew an environmental-assessment request from the province's Department of Environment, Conservation and Climate Change for a project that would have harnessed wind energy to produce hydrogen and green fuels like ammonia for export to northwest Europe. Pattern will submit a new request in the coming weeks for a wind farm to provide power to the local grid, the company said in an email. "We are preparing a new Environmental Assessment (EA) that reflects a phased approach," said Frank Davis, head of Canada for Pattern Energy in a statement to Argus . "The revised EA outlines a wind-generation project designed to deliver energy to Newfoundland & Labrador." Six companies have received permission from the province to pursue wind power-to-hydrogen projects to export either hydrogen or ammonia to buyers in Europe. Project time lines have slipped or stalled as that demand has failed to materialize as expected, sparking speculation that developers could pivot to projects providing only wind power. Pattern did not comment on what factors lead to its decision to withdraw the hydrogen project for consideration. Pattern originally conceived building a 300MW wind farm to power the production of hydrogen and green ammonia in partnership with the Port of Argentia. Earlier this year, the Port signed a letter of intent with the Hamburg Port Authority to collaborate on a so-called "hydrogen export/import corridor" between Newfoundland and Germany. The facility would have included storage and distribution infrastructure for an initial capital investment of around C$1.4bn, according to company documents. The company is now looking to build 150MW of wind power as a first phase and said "potential future phases" involve hydrogen and green fuels. In July, utility Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro issued a request for expressions of interest to supply energy and/or capacity to the province's Island Interconnected System, seeking 150mw of firm capacity and up to 500GWh of firm energy. By Jasmina Kelemen Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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