Road fuels
Overview
Fuels for road transportation continue to drive the refining industry. But gasoline and diesel use is coming under increasing pressure from the introduction of low-carbon targets around the world.
Global oversupply, new regulatory measures and rapidly increasing competition for export markets are affecting refining margins. The need for accurate insight and data is more critical than ever.
Argus road fuels coverage includes price assessments and key insights into conventional fuels — gasoline, middle distillates and blending components — as well as biofuels, in each key region. Our trusted prices are delivered alongside the latest market-moving news, in-depth analysis, supply and demand dynamics, price forecasts and forward curves data.
Latest road fuels news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global road fuels industry.
German cabinet passes EU RED III
German cabinet passes EU RED III
Hamburg, 10 December (Argus) — The German cabinet on 10 December approved legislation to implement the EU's Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) into national law. This will adjust the greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction quota and abolish double counting of advanced fuels from 2026. But it is unlikely to pass remaining legislative processes in time for the EU's 1 January deadline. The bill passed by the cabinet largely follows a draft dated 29 October that was leaked in November. The overall quota level will rise to 59pc by 2040. Aviation and marine fuels are exempt from the quota obligation. The law will end the eligibility of palm oil products, most notably palm oil mill effluent (Pome), for compliance towards the GHG quota. This exclusion, and a requirement for fuel producers to allow on-site audits, will not come into effect until 2027, leaving 2026 as a transitional year. The end of double counting for advanced biofuels removes a key point of market uncertainty. Under current rules, advanced biofuels can be counted as twice their energy value towards the GHG quota, provided the minimum sub-mandate for advanced fuels has been met. But the change to end double counting will apply to the entire compliance year and all subsequent years, meaning it will be retroactive to 1 January. The only exception is for fuels supplied prior to 1 January 2026. The law will enter into force on the second day after publication in the Federal Law Gazette, with selected sections taking effect a day earlier for procedural reasons. Before that can happen, the bill must be submitted to the Germany's lower and upper parliaments for debate. The lower house's approval is not required, and the upper house could initiate changes. The bill can only be submitted to the Federal President for his signature once the upper house has given approval. This process is likely to conclude in the first quarter of 2026. Changes to sub-quotas, RFNBOs, biomethane The sub-mandate for advanced biofuels, made from feedstocks listed in Annex IX of RED III, will rise to 9pc by 2040. The mandate for renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBOs) — such as e-fuels and green hydrogen — is higher will rise to 2.5pc of an obligated company's energy mix in 2034, and then to 8pc in 2040. The penalty for non-compliance is €120/GJ. Imported biomethane can be counted towards the GHG quota, provided it meets certain conditions, such as a connection to the EU gas grid. The baseline emissions value is 94kg CO2e/GJ, aligned with the rest of the EU. The registration deadline with the main customs office is 1 June. The market for GHG certificates reacted immediately. Other certificates for 2025 are trading around €20/t CO2e higher than the previous day, and prices for 2026 certificates are rising. Prices for 2025 certificates are rising, although they are unaffected by the change. They are seen as a substitute for 2027 certificates because excess 2025 compliance will be carried over. Hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) could now play a central role in meeting the GHG quota, which can influence certificate prices. Demand for advanced HVO could increase significantly, as it can be counted without limit towards the GHG quota as a blending component and as a pure fuel and can be used in most of the existing diesel vehicle fleet. The end of double counting could increase demand for non-advanced biodiesel grades, such as rapeseed-based RME and used cooking oil-based Ucome. Although the eligibility of these is capped to a certain percentage of a company's energy mix, this limit has not always been fully utilised in the past. by Max Steinhau and Chloe Jardine Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Funds’ Ice gasoil long position down from 45-month high
Funds’ Ice gasoil long position down from 45-month high
London, 4 December (Argus) — Sharp swings in European diesel prices in November were driven in part by entities with no physical exposure, as money managers briefly held their largest long positions in Ice gasoil futures in nearly four years. Funds have looked to gasoil futures because of increasing volatility in the contract when compared with Ice Brent crude futures, according to a senior participant in oil paper markets. The daily change in the value of front-month Ice gasoil has averaged 1.66pc so far this year, compared with 1.32pc for front-month Ice Brent. Money managers — hedge funds and pensions funds, along with other entities managing on behalf of clients — have increased their long positions in Ice gasoil futures as the year has progressed. This reached a 45-month high of 153,689 lots in the week to 18 November, according to Ice's Commitment of Traders report. Ice gasoil futures hit $777.50/t on 18 November, the third-highest of the year. Money managers trimmed 10pc of that position the following week, to 137,971 as of 25 November. Ice futures fell below $700/t on that date, pressured by reported progress on a plan to end the conflict in Ukraine. This led market participants to consider what peace would mean for diesel markets: a slow down in Ukraine's drone campaign against Russian energy infrastructure and, in the longer term, a possible European return to importing Russian diesel. Funds' long position is still almost double the 74,015 held at the start of 2025, and the average 75,398 held in 2024. Long and the short of it Before peace talks started to progress, money managers' net long positions were the highest in more than three-and-a-half years. An analyst said funds have probably taken an overall position of being long diesel cracks — taking long positions in gasoil futures and short ones in Brent. Permanent cuts to refining capacity in Europe, as well as extensive temporary outages this year, have contributed to a disconnect between gasoil and Brent price movements. As gasoil prices rise, refiners can hit capacity limits, which has capped their crude buying and kept Brent steadier. Managed money held the biggest short position in Brent since at least 2015 on 21 October at 190,639 lots. This has fallen since, but did rebound to 163,975 on 25 November, the eighth shortest since 2015. Funds' involvement in futures has further increased volatility, as they tend to buy and sell futures more quickly than entities with physical exposure. That volatility increases potential losses as well as potential gains. Some funds may have made very large losses this year because of unexpected swings, the paper market participant said. European diesel often prices on a exchange-of-futures-for-physical (EFP) basis, using Ice gasoil futures, meaning the futures price can be an influence on the physical price. European physical diesel cargoes priced at a $45.64/bl premium against North Sea Dated on 19 November, the highest in nearly three years. The following week, when money managers were cutting their long positions, the physical diesel premium fell to $27.15/bl. Ice gasoil futures is a physically-delivered contract, so any price dislocation is generally soon closed as traders look to work an arbitrage between the futures and physical. By Josh Michalowski and Benedict George Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Petrobras cuts spending in updated 5-year plan
Petrobras cuts spending in updated 5-year plan
Sao Paulo, 28 November (Argus) — Brazilian state-controlled Petrobras cut its spending plans by $7bn to $91bn in its 2026-2030 business plan, it said on Thursday. Petrobras outlined $109bn in overall capital spending in the current plan, down from $111bn in the previous five-year plan . The firm envisages $69.2bn in upstream spending over the next five years, of which around 62pc — about $42.6bn — is earmarked for pre-salt assets and $7.1bn for exploration. The figures represent an overall decrease from the $77.3bn in the previous plan. Pre-salt assets increased its share in the spending from 60pc, but their investments decreased from $46bn in the 2025-29 plan. Petrobras set $18bn to its evaluation portfolio. Of the total, $9bn will go for upstream activities, $5bn for refining and other activities, and $5bn for natural gas and low-carbon initiatives. The upstream figure is nine times higher than the envisioned amount in the previous plan, while refining figures increased slightly from $4bn. But gas and low-carbon initiatives decreased from $8bn from the previous plan. Exploration spending of $7.1bn is split between offshore fields in Brazil's south and southeast, the equatorial margin and foreign assets such as Colombia, Sao Tome and Principe, and South Africa. Petrobras received the environmental license to drill a well in the environmentally-sensitive equatorial margin in October . The company expects eight new projects to come on line by 2030, with seven new floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) platforms — most of them in the pre-salt — and the Raia project , which Petrobras does not operate. The firm also expects 16 complimentary projects in the pre-salt, 15 in the post-salt and eight in onshore regions. The new FPSOs include the P-79 , P-80 , P-82 , P-83 units in the Buzios field, P-84 in the Atapu field and P-85 in the Sepia 2 field. All units have capacity of 225,000 b/d and all fields are in the pre-salt Santos basin. Petrobras included the deepwater oil and natural gas project Sergipe Aguas-Profundas in the plan, expecting its partial conclusion by 2030. Mines and energy minister Alexandre Silveira said this week that the executive veto on the new crude royalties formula was "a way to push Petrobras to maintain its investments from its previous plan," including the Seap and the Campos field revamp project. The firm expects oil and natural gas production to hit 3.3mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) by 2030, with peak production at 3.4mn boe/d in 2028-29. The figures represent an overall increase from 3mn boe/d in the previous plan and an increase from 3.2mn boe/d for the 2028-29 timeframe. Petrobras' plan considered Brent crude prices at an average of $63/bl for 2026 and $70/bl for 2027-2030. It also considered average US dollar-Brazilian real exchange rate of R5.80/$1 in 2026-2030, it said. Refining, fertilizers Combined spending on refining, transportation, sales, petrochemicals and fertilizers is set to fall by over 19pc from the previous five-year cycle to $15.8bn, despite a forecast increase in diesel production. The company aims to prioritize 10ppm diesel over 500ppm. It will produce the fuel mainly in 21mn m³/d Boaventura Energy Complex, in southeastern Rio de Janeiro state, and in its recently upgraded 230,000 b/d Abreu e Lima plant in northeastern Pernambuco state, it said. Petrobras plans to focus investments on expanding and upgrading refineries with low-carbon fuels production, it said. The company aims to increase its installed processing capacity to 2.1mn b/d by 2030, up from 1.8mn b/d today, without acquiring or building new refining assets, it said. The firm also plans to increase logistics in the center-west and north, it said. Those plans include spending $2bn to build 20 cabotage vessels, 18 barges and charter other 40 supporting vessels for oil and gas production. The nitrogen fertilizers plant UFN-III in Tres Lagoas, in central-western Mato Grosso do Sul state, is the main investment in the sector, it said. Spending on the fertilizer sector is stable from the previous five-year plan. Energy transition in the corner Energy transition investments decreased by nearly 20pc from the previous plan to $13bn. While investments in bioproducts — including ethanol, biodiesel and biomethane — rose by over 11pc to $4.8bn, planned spending for decarbonization operations fell by 19pc to $4.3bn. Investments in low-carbon energies almost halved to $3.1bn. But spending on research and development initiatives grew by 20pc to $1.2bn. The plan earmarks $4bn in spending on natural gas and low-carbon energy projects, up by 54pc from the previous plan. Petrobras will prioritize ethanol, biodiesel, biomethane production through partnerships and shared assets, in tandem with its own projects for renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel and biobunker prompted by regulatory advances, it said. By Maria Frazatto and João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Propane–naphtha spread tightens to eight-month low
Propane–naphtha spread tightens to eight-month low
London, 28 November (Argus) — The gap between European propane and naphtha prices has narrowed to its tightest level in nearly eight months, eroding the cost advantage that had previously favoured propane in petrochemical feedstock slates. The spread contracted to -$39/t on 27 November from -$120/t earlier in the month, as rising propane and easing naphtha values squeezed the differential. Propane strengthened notably through November, with northwest European cif Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) prices climbing to a two-month high of $473/t on 27 November, up by nearly $25/t from the start of the month. Colder weather in recent weeks incentivised propane use as a heating fuel, lending support to prices that had hovered near $450/t for much of the past few months. This support became more pronounced as the broader energy complex came under pressure from concerns of oversupply sparked by Russia–Ukraine peace negotiations. Steady bidding inquiries for propane tightened prompt availability and encouraged buyers to lift their bids. Naphtha, meanwhile, drifted lower over the same period. European naphtha values slipped to $511.75/t on 27 November, down by around $35/t since the start of the month, as regional refineries gradually returned from a heavy maintenance cycle and added supply to a seasonally soft gasoline blending environment. The restart of units at Shell's 404,000 b/d Pernis refinery in the Netherlands, which is expected to return fully next week, could inject further supply into the system and deepen pressure on naphtha values. The simultaneous rise in propane and fall in naphtha pulled the inter-feedstock differential back to its narrowest since early April. The retreat of the propane discount from triple-digit lows to around –$39/t materially reduces the incentive for petrochemical operators to favour propane. Earlier in November, when the discount reached –$120/t, flexible crackers maximised propane intake to capture sizeable margin benefits. With the discount now far closer to parity, operators may gradually rebalance towards naphtha, particularly as more refinery capacity returns through December. If the spread narrows further, propane could face downward price pressure as its feedstock advantage erodes — especially if US imports remain strong and heating demand stays weak. By Efcharis Sgourou and Benedict George Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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