Overview
Fuels for road transportation continue to drive the refining industry. But gasoline and diesel use is coming under increasing pressure from the introduction of low-carbon targets around the world.
Global oversupply, new regulatory measures and rapidly increasing competition for export markets are affecting refining margins. The need for accurate insight and data is more critical than ever.
Argus road fuels coverage includes price assessments and key insights into conventional fuels — gasoline, middle distillates and blending components — as well as biofuels, in each key region. Our trusted prices are delivered alongside the latest market-moving news, in-depth analysis, supply and demand dynamics, price forecasts and forward curves data.
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Q&A: JetBio to produce renewable diesel from ethanol
Q&A: JetBio to produce renewable diesel from ethanol
Sao Paulo, 22 October (Argus) — Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) producer JetBio has redesigned its first planned plant, to be built in Paulinia, in Brazil's southeastern Sao Paulo state, to include renewable diesel production from ethanol. The company's chief executive, William Moore, said the project will be the first facility in the world capable of producing renewable diesel from ethanol at a commercial scale. The project will use Honeywell UOP's technology to convert ethanol into those two renewable fuels. The new model will allow the plant to switch from maximum sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production to maximum renewable diesel production, both with no co-products, and the switch can be made within a few hours, according to Moore. At maximum SAF output, the facility would produce close to 770,000 metric tonnes (t)/yr from approximately 1.4mn t of ethanol (31,068 b/d). In maximum renewable diesel mode, output would be closer to 700,000 t/yr. JetBio plans to invest $2bn in the project, with a final investment decision expected in the first quarter of 2027 and start-up potentially from mid-2030. Edited highlights from the interview follow. Is JetBio planning to direct renewable diesel output primarily to Brazil's domestic market, or is it also eyeing international markets? We are applying to create a ZPE (Brazilian free-trade zone) and the requirement is 80pc of our product has to be exported. We are going to be living within those constraints, but even in that 20pc for both SAF and renewable diesel, we think there is strong demand in Brazil for both. The beauty of renewable diesel, while it may be a little bit more expensive, you can still get to greater than 66pc GHG reduction all the way down to 95pc-100pc, depending on what ethanol we are sourcing and if we are using biomethane instead of natural gas for heat and hydrogen. It offers the decarbonization benefits to the local market in Brazil without those companies having to make big capital investments to change over their fleets to burn ethanol or change over their bunkering infrastructure or their fueling infrastructure in order to utilize it. So far, we have seen strong interest from maritime — that would be bunkering in Santos and Paranagua —, from mining, heavy on-road transportation and agriculture. Brazil imports fossil diesel, and there is a strong argument that why would Brazil want to import all that fossil diesel when they could use locally produced renewable diesel that has a much lower carbon footprint? Now it all comes down to price, but our goal is to be the lowest-cost producer of SAF and now renewable diesel in the world at the lowest carbon intensity that has access to Brazilian markets and export markets. When we are in service, we think that Brazilian ethanol will be the most competitive green molecule in the world. And we're just converting it into two other products that can be utilized by hard-to-abate industries. Have ethanol producers shown interest in this part of the project? One thing that we are talking to ethanol producers about is would they be interested in a tolling model where they would supply the ethanol to our plant in Paulina, and for an upgrading fee we would deliver back to them renewable diesel or sustainable maritime fuel that they could sell directly to consumers that they have already established a relationship with. It has just been transformed into a much more energy-dense and pure drop-in fuel that does not require any blending and does not have storage limitations. It is a perfect replacement for the fossil diesel that they are already consuming. Is this technology adaptation driven by a change in the outlook for the SAF market? Are you seeing any bottlenecks in that market? Our view has not changed on the SAF market. We are just excited that we can access the renewable diesel market as well. We see the world being structurally short of SAF, especially non-HEFA SAF, in 2030 and beyond. I think what you have to remember here is this is the largest biorefinery of its kind that is going to be built anytime soon. From an addressable market standpoint, this just gives us an additional optionality that we can provide. By Maria Lígia Barros Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Iran claims end to gasoline imports despite shortfall
Iran claims end to gasoline imports despite shortfall
Dubai, 22 October (Argus) — Iran's president said this week that the country no longer needs to import gasoline to meet domestic demand, thanks to a renewed push by the authorities to curb fuel consumption. But refinery outages and continued fuel smuggling cast serious doubt on those claims. President Masoud Pezeshkian said that "fuel conservation and management measures" had ended the country's need for gasoline imports, saving it $12bn/yr. The measures Pezeshkian referenced rest largely on a tiered pricing system that Tehran has tightened in stages since December, cutting subsidised allocations and raising prices for the heaviest users (see table) . The latest change, introduced in early September, doubled the price of gasoline bought above the subsidised quota to 100,000 rials/l ($0.04/l) from IR50,000/l. The higher prices do appear to have curbed consumption. Domestic demand has fallen to around 134mn l/d this month from about 144mn l/d in August-September, according to state-owned products distributor NIOPDC. Part of the decline reflects a shift towards compressed natural gas (CNG). Daily CNG consumption rose to 16.7mn m³ in October from 14.7mn m³ in August, displacing an estimated 2mn l/d of gasoline demand, according to Iranian officials. At the same time, domestic gasoline production increased. Output averaged 135mn l/d in late August and early September, according to official figures, up from an average of 122mn l/d in the first five months of the Iranian year, corresponding to late March to late August. The increase resulted from higher refinery runs and reconfiguration projects, NIORDC head Mohammad-Sadegh Azimifar said last month. These included sending surplus naphtha from the Persian Gulf Star (PGS) condensate splitter to underused gasoline units at the 375,000 b/d Isfahan, 220,000 b/d Tehran and 110,000 b/d Tabriz refineries. Even at those elevated levels, production remained about 10mn l/d below peak summer demand of 145mn l/d, although it would have broadly matched current demand. Refinery outages, however, have since reduced production capacity. An explosion at the 700,000 b/d Abadan refinery in late September cut gasoline production capacity to about 8mn l/d from 11mn l/d, with repairs expected to take at least two months. The disruption added to broader supply losses, including at the 55,000 b/d Lavan refinery, which lost about half of its 3mn l/d gasoline capacity after it was hit on the first day of the US-Iran ceasefire in April, forcing other plants to raise runs. Iran also continues to face a chronic smuggling problem, with subsidised fuel diverted to neighbouring countries where prices are significantly higher. Tehran has responded by introducing identity checks for motorists using emergency fuel cards at filling stations. The cards previously allowed anonymous purchases and accounted for 40-45pc of refuelling transactions, well above the government's 5pc ceiling. But Iranian officials estimate that around 25mn l/d of petroleum products continue to be smuggled across the country's borders, with diesel accounting for most of the illicit trade. Limited options Iran also has little scope to raise gasoline production further. Feedstock availability is already under pressure following damage sustained during the early stages of the US-Iran war to facilities linked to the South Pars gas field, which supplies condensate to PGS. And two new splitters, the South Adish and Mehr Persian Gulf units, are not expected to start operations before the end of the Iranian year in March at the earliest. Against that backdrop, market participants say Iran still needs to import between three and seven Medium Range (MR) gasoline cargoes a month to cover its near-term supply gap. This is equivalent to around 0.9mn-2.1mn bl/month, or 4.7mn-11mn l/d. But sanctions and the US naval blockade imposed on Iran since July make those volumes difficult to secure. Market participants say some gasoline is being transferred between vessels off Shinas, Oman, before US-sanctioned tankers carry it through the strait of Hormuz to Iran. The trade, however, is constrained by a shortage of ships willing to take part in the transfers and deal with sanctioned tankers serving Iranian ports, one shipbroker said. By Rithika Krishna Iran gasoline quota and price changes liters Effective Tier 1 quota Price (IR/l) Tier 2 quota Price (IR/l) Total quota (l/mo) Above-quota price (IR/l) Dec-25 60 15,000 100 30,000 160 50,000 Mar-26 60 15,000 70 30,000 130 50,000 Jul-26 60 15,000 50 30,000 110 50,000 Sep-26 60 15,000 50 30,000 110 100,000 Price in Iranian rials/litre (IR/l) Source: Ministry Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
New York diesel falls on DOE reserve loan
New York diesel falls on DOE reserve loan
Houston, 21 October (Argus) — The US Energy Department's offer to loan 315,000 bl from the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve (NEHHOR) pressured New York diesel markets on Wednesday, easing some concerns over near-term supply availability ahead of the winter heating season. The offer seeks to loan out nearly a third of NEHHOR supplies , which consist of 1mn bl of ultra-low sulfur heating oil held in leased commercial storage tanks in Portland, Maine; Boston, Massachusetts; and New Haven, Connecticut. The deliveries, scheduled to be completed by 13 November, are intended to bolster regional fuel supplies as inventories remain historically tight. The announcement sparked a bearish reaction in the New York Harbor distillates market. Buckeye ultra-low sulphur diesel (ULSD) for prompt delivery traded at a 3¢/USG premium to November Nymex, pulling cash differentials down by 4¢/USG from Tuesday's levels to their lowest midpoint in four weeks. Market participants view the reserve loan as an additional source of supply for the northeast US, reducing some of the scarcity premium that had been supporting diesel values. Falling futures prices added to the pressure on cash markets. The November Nymex ULSD contract fell by nearly 16¢/USG at around noon ET Wednesday, accelerating losses in physical markets. Buckeye cash ULSD values were on track to settle near $4.79/USG, the lowest level in two weeks. Even after the decline, prices remained more than double year-earlier levels of $2.22/USG. Rising inventories also weighed on prices. ULSD and ultra-low sulphur heating oil (ULSH) stocks in the US central Atlantic coast region, which includes the New York Harbor market, rose by 1.3mn bl last week to 9.8mn bl, according to Energy Information Administration (EIA) data released Wednesday. Still, inventories remain historically low, with regional stocks more than 19pc below the 12.1mn bl held during the same week last year. That suggests the market could remain vulnerable to supply disruptions, cold-weather demand spikes, or logistical constraints later this winter, despite the recent increase in available supplies. By Craig Ross Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Germany's Merz says France deal ends EU ICE phase-out
Germany's Merz says France deal ends EU ICE phase-out
Brussels, 16 October (Argus) — The EU's planned phase-out of new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2035 is "history", German chancellor Friedrich Merz said today, citing a new Franco-German agreement on future CO2 standards for cars. A draft text of the German-French proposals circulating would retain the EU's 2035 target of a 90pc reduction in CO2 emissions without offsetting, while allowing greater use of renewable fuels. The text indicates support for a new category of zero-emission vehicles powered by renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBOs), sustainable EU-produced biofuels and biogas from advanced feedstocks, waste and residues listed in Parts A and B of Annex IX. "We would also enable the use of biofuels as a means of achieving carbon neutrality," Merz said, arguing that technological neutrality is needed to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions. Merz said the agreement has backing from other member states, but needs to pass the EU legislative process. The proposal was criticised by German Green MEP Michael Bloss, the group's negotiator on car CO2 standards. "Just when many people want to buy an electric car, a further weakening of EU rules creates uncertainty and hesitation," Bloss said. "China has already gone electric, and that is precisely where European manufacturers are losing substantial market share." German EPP MEP Peter Liese welcomed the proposal, saying scrapping the ban on ICE cars can be done "without missing our climate targets." Use of "climate-friendly" fuels such as E20 should be expanded, he said. Liese backed the creation of a dedicated vehicle category for climate-friendly fuels, including e-fuels. He said there is broad support in the European Parliament for the European Commission's proposal to allow 7pc green steel to count towards compliance targets. Industry group European Biodiesel Board (EBB) welcomed the agreement but wants clarity on fuels eligibility. "Leaving out any RED-compliant feedstocks would hamper solutions that are already contributing to decarbonisation," said EBB secretary general Xavier Noyon. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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