Road fuels
Overview
Fuels for road transportation continue to drive the refining industry. But gasoline and diesel use is coming under increasing pressure from the introduction of low-carbon targets around the world.
Global oversupply, new regulatory measures and rapidly increasing competition for export markets are affecting refining margins. The need for accurate insight and data is more critical than ever.
Argus road fuels coverage includes price assessments and key insights into conventional fuels — gasoline, middle distillates and blending components — as well as biofuels, in each key region. Our trusted prices are delivered alongside the latest market-moving news, in-depth analysis, supply and demand dynamics, price forecasts and forward curves data.
Latest road fuels news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global road fuels industry.
Indonesian pres inaugurates Balikpapan refinery:Correct
Indonesian pres inaugurates Balikpapan refinery:Correct
Corrects headline to clarify this was an inauguration, not the unit's startup Singapore, 12 January (Argus) — Indonesia's president Prabowo has inaugurated the Balikpapan Refinery Development Master Plan (RDMP) project, according to the country's energy ministry. The upgrade is planned to raise the refinery's capacity to 360,000 b/d from 260,000 b/d and added a new 90,000 b/d RFCC unit. Product quality will also improve from Euro 2 to Euro 5 standards. The refinery is expected to begin operations in the first-quarter, said sources familiar with the matter. Pertamina has invested 120 trillion rupiah ($7.4bn) in the project. The RFCC start-up coupled with the adoption of E10 blending is expected to cut Indonesia's gasoline import requirements, capping regional gasoline crack spreads, traders said. Indonesia is Asia-Pacific's largest gasoline importer, with typical demand at 10mn-11mn bl/month. At full capacity, the RFCC could cut imports by around 40,000 b/d, analysts said. Indonesia may also see a diesel surplus when it implements mandatory 50pc biodiesel (B50) blending and ramps up Balikpapan output, the country's energy minister Bahlil Lahadalia said in November. The start-up will also reduce exports of low-sulphur waxy residue, which will be used as RFCC feedstock. The refinery may instead export slurry or residual RFCC material, although this could be used for domestic bunkering if volumes are small, a source close to operations said. The inauguration was initially scheduled for 10 November but was delayed, traders said. By Aldric Chew Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US naphtha market braces for disruption
US naphtha market braces for disruption
London, 12 January (Argus) — US naphtha and fuel oil markets moved in opposite directions against a backdrop of higher expected Venezuelan crude supplies to the US following its capture of the country's president, Nicolas Maduro. Venezuela's role in the products markets is concentrated in high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) export and naphtha import trade. US naphtha differentials firmed after energy secretary Chris Wright announced on 7 January that the US is negotiating with Caracas to "indefinitely" take over oil sales by state-owned PdV and supply the diluents and equipment needed to enable a boost in Venezuelan output. The US has a long history of selling naphtha as a diluent to Venezuela for use in transporting the heavy crude produced there, although sanctions and political tensions have undermined the trade. Heavy-virgin naphtha differentials gained 1.75¢/USG against the Nymex Rbob pricing basis on 7 January, with many sellers withholding offers in anticipation of renewed opportunities to export to Venezuela should there be any changes to the current sanctions regime. US naphtha exports to Venezuela have lagged its exports to other South American countries such as Brazil and Colombia, as well as to Asia-Pacific, as sanctions have curtailed the trade. But a six-month sanctions waiver from October 2023-April 2024 and a special licence issued to Chevron as a joint-venture partner with PdV have helped reinvigorate some naphtha trading activity. US Gulf coast naphtha exports to Venezuela fell to just over 40,000 b/d last year from above 55,000 b/d a year earlier, according to oil analytics firm Vortexa. But shipments waned in the second half of last year, as the US flip-flopped over whether to renew Chevron's special licence. No visible US naphtha exports have gone to Venezuela this year. Venezuela has turned elsewhere in the face of the lower US deliveries. Of its 88,000 b/d of naphtha imports last year, US shipments accounted for 47pc, while Russian receipts made up 41pc, or 36,000 b/d, while China shipped 8,000 b/d. That represents a potential opportunity for US shippers to supply an additional 30,000-40,000 b/d of naphtha to the Latin American country. When they go high, it stays low US HSFO differentials recorded the largest day-to-day losses since July 2025 in the US Gulf coast and New York Harbor markets on 7 January, driven by the developments in Venezuela, as prices fell to their lowest since January 2021. HSFO cash prices fell by $3.50/bl to a 60-month low of $47.20/bl on the Gulf coast and by $3.70/bl to a 59-month low of $50.90/bl in New York Harbor. The potential for more Venezuelan heavy sour crude to enter the US had more of an effect on HSFO than low-sulphur fuel oil (LSFO), as heavier grades yield more HSFO when refined and an abundance of heavy crude can lead to HSFO oversupply. US control of Venezuelan crude supply is expected to increase US HSFO availability as more Venezuelan crude would be refined in the US, rather than sent to Asia, market sources say. In addition to producing more HSFO when refined, an abundance of heavy crude also reduces refinery demand for HSFO as a feedstock, which increases HSFO supply and exerts further pressure on prices. HSFO has been supported in the Asia-Pacific market by expectations of a reduction in Venezuelan supplies to the region. Venezuela exported about 150,000 b/d of HSFO last year, based on Kpler data, with Singapore and Malaysia taking roughly a third of those flows. But a potential waiver enabling US firms to take Venezuelan product could redirect flows away from Asia. Any redirection of Venezuelan crude to the US away from China could also bolster demand from Chinese refiners for straight-run fuel oil as a refinery feedstock. By Daphne Tan USGC naphtha differential US HSFO prices Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Germany’s green rules open fuel tax loophole
Germany’s green rules open fuel tax loophole
Hamburg, 9 January (Argus) — The introduction of increasingly stringent rules aimed at reducing CO2 emissions in Germany has opened a tax loophole that creates scope for and may have already given rise to fraud, according to market participants. The country has led the way in Europe's drive to cut emissions: it has both a greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction quota and a CO2 levy, which combined add up to levies worth some €250/t for diesel in 2025, and which could reach €415/t or more in 2026, Argus calculates. The CO2 levy was €25/t CO2e in 2021, when it was first imposed. In 2025 it was €55/t CO2e, while in 2026 the obligation will be auctioned between €55/t CO2e and €65/t CO2e with a fallback non-auction price of €68/t CO2e. The GHG reduction obligation, meanwhile, was at 10.6pc of emissions in 2025 and has risen to 12pc this year. Under Germany's implementation of the EU's latest Renewable Energy Directive (RED III), the obligation will rise to 59pc by 2040, with increases every year. Most fuel suppliers build these costs into their prices at source. But the rules for payment of the levies do not make it compulsory to do so. The GHG and CO2 duties apply to sales of fossil diesel and gasoline within each calendar year, but do not have to be paid immediately — proof of GHG compliance was due on 15 July in previous years and is now due by 1 June of the year following actual fuel sales, while CO2 emissions certificates must be submitted by 30 September. In addition, it is not clear how quickly the authorities would take legal enforcement action should these deadlines be missed. The current regulatory framework creates, at minimum, a timing gap with regard to compliance obligations and, at worst, a serious loophole — a window of opportunity allowing businesses to sell discounted diesel with no GHG compliance or CO2 duties factored into the price, and exit the market ahead of compliance deadlines and ensuing legal enforcement. Clearly, the higher the renewable tax burden, the larger the financial value of exploiting the loophole becomes. The emergence of new suppliers in 2025 offering diesel at steep discounts to prevailing market prices is therefore raising questions. Since the start of 2025, established market players say a handful of new suppliers have regularly offered and sold diesel delivered by rail and for truck loading at specific import locations at discounts of up to €60/t (for truck loading), subtracted from the previous day's inland price assessments for finished-grade product. This equates at times to discounts of about 4pc to prevailing market levels, which have ranged on average from around €1,345/t to €1,549/t over the year. The actual volume of diesel sold at such discounts last year is around 30,000t, Argus estimates — the equivalent of about 1,000 truckloads of fuel. That is less than 0.1 pc of total German deliveries for the period, but because the sales occur only in specific regions they have had a disproportionate impact in local markets. Traders say it is difficult to see how such large discounts could be the result of factors other than delayed payment of greenhouse levies. Regular energy taxes must be paid monthly, and the only other variables in the price are the actual import cost of the fuel, and logistical expenses — storage and transportation. Some wholesalers and retailers say they are now declining to buy from suppliers who consistently offer steep discounts because of concerns about potential legal repercussions — fearing they might be held accountable if their supplier does not ultimately pay the CO2 duties and/or GHG compliance costs, or even concerned they might be regarded as accessories to fraud. A number of established players in the domestic diesel market have called on German customs authorities to be more vigilant and thoroughly audit new suppliers to prevent any possible CO2 tax or GHG compliance-related fraud. The authorities could also order obligated fuel suppliers to provide a bank assurance for the payment of CO2 tax and the GHG quota, some companies suggest. Officials with German customs authorities have told Argus that they are aware of the concerns but declined to comment on what steps they are taking or might take in response. Non-payment of CO2 levies on 30,000t of diesel would have cost the government about €5.2mn in 2025, Argus calculates, while the non-compliance with GHG savings targets would reduce GHG savings demand by 14,000t of CO2e, worth around €2.2mn, reducing biofuels demand and undermining Germany's energy transition goals. Cases of proven fraud involving diesel have been reported in a number European countries in recent years, including Italy, Spain, Portugal and Romania as well as Germany, often involving designer fuels schemes or VAT fraud. Widespread fraud relating to non-compliant biofuels with faked credentials has also been of concern. But the rise in Germany's CO2 taxes and GHG obligations since 2021, and the way the government has framed the rules, may well have created a whole new set of problems. These problems may replicate themselves in other EU countries, as governments in the Netherlands and elsewhere move to emulate Germany's lead in setting emissions reductions targets. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Mexico inflation slows to 3.7pc in Dec
Mexico inflation slows to 3.7pc in Dec
Mexico City, 8 January (Argus) — Mexico's inflation decelerated to an annual 3.69pc in December, the lowest reading for the month since 2020, mainly driven by slowing agriculture and energy prices, alongside some easing in core inflation. The consumer price index (CPI) eased from 3.80pc in November, statistics agency Inegi said Thursday, after accelerating from 3.57pc in October. Inflation has trended higher since July, when it stood at 3.51pc — the lowest annual headline reading since December 2020. The annual figure was down from 4.21pc in December 2024 and marked the lowest year-end reading since 3.15pc in December 2020. The result came in below the 3.6pc forecast by Mexican bank Banamex, "interrupting the upward trend recorded since August, which we anticipate will resume in January." The bank added that full-year inflation for 2025 was below the historical average of 4.4pc. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, slowed to 4.33pc in December from 4.43pc in November, after accelerating from 4.28pc in October. This marked an eighth consecutive month above 4pc — the upper bound of the central bank's target range. Within core inflation, consumer goods eased to 4.30pc from 4.37pc in November, while services slowed to 4.35pc in December from 4.49pc. Among the largest contributors to CPI in December, weighted by Inegi, were tourism-related components, particularly airfare and long-distance bus fares ahead of the holiday season. Non-core inflation decelerated to 1.61pc in December from 1.73pc in November, remaining below 2pc in five of the past six months. Agriculture prices — especially fruits and vegetables — have been subdued this year by favorable weather conditions, although pressures are beginning to build. Annual inflation for fruits and vegetables contracted by 5.62pc in December, compared with contractions of 7.79pc in November and 10.27pc in October. The segment has faced rising inflationary pressure, Mexican bank Banorte said, driven by extreme rainfall in several states in November and nationwide roadblocks organized by freight truck associations in December. Energy price inflation slowed to 0.18pc in December from 0.54pc in October and 1.07pc in September. Inflation in the segment has remained contained since President Claudia Sheinbaum in early September renewed an agreement with fuel retailers to maintain a voluntary regular gasoline price cap of Ps24/l ($5.05/USG) for six months. Looking ahead, Banamex expects an increase in merchandise inflation at the start of 2026 due to higher tariffs and taxes, forecasting headline and core inflation to end 2026 at 4.3pc and 4.2pc, respectively. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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