Overview
Fuels for road transportation continue to drive the refining industry. But gasoline and diesel use is coming under increasing pressure from the introduction of low-carbon targets around the world.
Global oversupply, new regulatory measures and rapidly increasing competition for export markets are affecting refining margins. The need for accurate insight and data is more critical than ever.
Argus road fuels coverage includes price assessments and key insights into conventional fuels — gasoline, middle distillates and blending components — as well as biofuels, in each key region. Our trusted prices are delivered alongside the latest market-moving news, in-depth analysis, supply and demand dynamics, price forecasts and forward curves data.
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Petrobras cuts spending in updated 5-year plan
Petrobras cuts spending in updated 5-year plan
Sao Paulo, 28 November (Argus) — Brazilian state-controlled Petrobras cut its spending plans by $7bn to $91bn in its 2026-2030 business plan, it said on Thursday. Petrobras outlined $109bn in overall capital spending in the current plan, down from $111bn in the previous five-year plan . The firm envisages $69.2bn in upstream spending over the next five years, of which around 62pc — about $42.6bn — is earmarked for pre-salt assets and $7.1bn for exploration. The figures represent an overall decrease from the $77.3bn in the previous plan. Pre-salt assets increased its share in the spending from 60pc, but their investments decreased from $46bn in the 2025-29 plan. Petrobras set $18bn to its evaluation portfolio. Of the total, $9bn will go for upstream activities, $5bn for refining and other activities, and $5bn for natural gas and low-carbon initiatives. The upstream figure is nine times higher than the envisioned amount in the previous plan, while refining figures increased slightly from $4bn. But gas and low-carbon initiatives decreased from $8bn from the previous plan. Exploration spending of $7.1bn is split between offshore fields in Brazil's south and southeast, the equatorial margin and foreign assets such as Colombia, Sao Tome and Principe, and South Africa. Petrobras received the environmental license to drill a well in the environmentally-sensitive equatorial margin in October . The company expects eight new projects to come on line by 2030, with seven new floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) platforms — most of them in the pre-salt — and the Raia project , which Petrobras does not operate. The firm also expects 16 complimentary projects in the pre-salt, 15 in the post-salt and eight in onshore regions. The new FPSOs include the P-79 , P-80 , P-82 , P-83 units in the Buzios field, P-84 in the Atapu field and P-85 in the Sepia 2 field. All units have capacity of 225,000 b/d and all fields are in the pre-salt Santos basin. Petrobras included the deepwater oil and natural gas project Sergipe Aguas-Profundas in the plan, expecting its partial conclusion by 2030. Mines and energy minister Alexandre Silveira said this week that the executive veto on the new crude royalties formula was "a way to push Petrobras to maintain its investments from its previous plan," including the Seap and the Campos field revamp project. The firm expects oil and natural gas production to hit 3.3mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) by 2030, with peak production at 3.4mn boe/d in 2028-29. The figures represent an overall increase from 3mn boe/d in the previous plan and an increase from 3.2mn boe/d for the 2028-29 timeframe. Petrobras' plan considered Brent crude prices at an average of $63/bl for 2026 and $70/bl for 2027-2030. It also considered average US dollar-Brazilian real exchange rate of R5.80/$1 in 2026-2030, it said. Refining, fertilizers Combined spending on refining, transportation, sales, petrochemicals and fertilizers is set to fall by over 19pc from the previous five-year cycle to $15.8bn, despite a forecast increase in diesel production. The company aims to prioritize 10ppm diesel over 500ppm. It will produce the fuel mainly in 21mn m³/d Boaventura Energy Complex, in southeastern Rio de Janeiro state, and in its recently upgraded 230,000 b/d Abreu e Lima plant in northeastern Pernambuco state, it said. Petrobras plans to focus investments on expanding and upgrading refineries with low-carbon fuels production, it said. The company aims to increase its installed processing capacity to 2.1mn b/d by 2030, up from 1.8mn b/d today, without acquiring or building new refining assets, it said. The firm also plans to increase logistics in the center-west and north, it said. Those plans include spending $2bn to build 20 cabotage vessels, 18 barges and charter other 40 supporting vessels for oil and gas production. The nitrogen fertilizers plant UFN-III in Tres Lagoas, in central-western Mato Grosso do Sul state, is the main investment in the sector, it said. Spending on the fertilizer sector is stable from the previous five-year plan. Energy transition in the corner Energy transition investments decreased by nearly 20pc from the previous plan to $13bn. While investments in bioproducts — including ethanol, biodiesel and biomethane — rose by over 11pc to $4.8bn, planned spending for decarbonization operations fell by 19pc to $4.3bn. Investments in low-carbon energies almost halved to $3.1bn. But spending on research and development initiatives grew by 20pc to $1.2bn. The plan earmarks $4bn in spending on natural gas and low-carbon energy projects, up by 54pc from the previous plan. Petrobras will prioritize ethanol, biodiesel, biomethane production through partnerships and shared assets, in tandem with its own projects for renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel and biobunker prompted by regulatory advances, it said. By Maria Frazatto and João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Propane–naphtha spread tightens to eight-month low
Propane–naphtha spread tightens to eight-month low
London, 28 November (Argus) — The gap between European propane and naphtha prices has narrowed to its tightest level in nearly eight months, eroding the cost advantage that had previously favoured propane in petrochemical feedstock slates. The spread contracted to -$39/t on 27 November from -$120/t earlier in the month, as rising propane and easing naphtha values squeezed the differential. Propane strengthened notably through November, with northwest European cif Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) prices climbing to a two-month high of $473/t on 27 November, up by nearly $25/t from the start of the month. Colder weather in recent weeks incentivised propane use as a heating fuel, lending support to prices that had hovered near $450/t for much of the past few months. This support became more pronounced as the broader energy complex came under pressure from concerns of oversupply sparked by Russia–Ukraine peace negotiations. Steady bidding inquiries for propane tightened prompt availability and encouraged buyers to lift their bids. Naphtha, meanwhile, drifted lower over the same period. European naphtha values slipped to $511.75/t on 27 November, down by around $35/t since the start of the month, as regional refineries gradually returned from a heavy maintenance cycle and added supply to a seasonally soft gasoline blending environment. The restart of units at Shell's 404,000 b/d Pernis refinery in the Netherlands, which is expected to return fully next week, could inject further supply into the system and deepen pressure on naphtha values. The simultaneous rise in propane and fall in naphtha pulled the inter-feedstock differential back to its narrowest since early April. The retreat of the propane discount from triple-digit lows to around –$39/t materially reduces the incentive for petrochemical operators to favour propane. Earlier in November, when the discount reached –$120/t, flexible crackers maximised propane intake to capture sizeable margin benefits. With the discount now far closer to parity, operators may gradually rebalance towards naphtha, particularly as more refinery capacity returns through December. If the spread narrows further, propane could face downward price pressure as its feedstock advantage erodes — especially if US imports remain strong and heating demand stays weak. By Efcharis Sgourou and Benedict George Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Transport, farm groups block highways in Mexico
Transport, farm groups block highways in Mexico
Mexico City, 24 November (Argus) — Truck drivers and agricultural workers in Mexico today blocked multiple roads around the capital and several states to protest over security issues and agricultural policy. Demonstrators blocked stretches of the Mexico City-Toluca highway early in the morning, leaving only one lane open toward Mexico City, while other groups targeted the Mexico City-Queretaro route and roads in Ecatepec, Tecamac, Texcoco and Acolman in the state of Mexico. Local authorities also reported multiple blockades and one march affecting key avenues in Mexico City. Organizers — including the national association of transporters and rural agricultural groups — demand measures to curb extortion and theft on highways, halt alleged corruption by security forces and improve conditions for the transportation sector. Farmers are calling for guaranteed prices for corn and wheat and greater support for rural development. Protesters warned that actions could extend to customs facilities and government offices if talks with federal authorities do not advance. Mexico's interior ministry on 23 November urged organizers to avoid actions that disrupt citizens and commercial activities, emphasizing its willingness to engage in dialogue. The ministry invited transportation sector representatives to a meeting on 24 November with officials from the agriculture and economy ministries, along with the national water commission, to review demands and reach agreements to support the transportation and farming sectors. Fuel impact limited The blockades caused traffic jams in affected areas, authorities said. But fuel supply in the Mexico City metropolitan area was not disrupted, as retailers stocked up ahead of the previously announced protest, one truck transporter told Argus . "There should not be fuel supply issues in Mexico City and elsewhere for this reason," he added. Truck transporters have asked the government "for years to guarantee road safety," the transporter said, noting he did not participate in the blockades. Fuel supply is expected to remain unaffected as the protests were announced for 24 November only, but Felipe Angeles International Airport (AIFA) warned travelers of possible delays because of road disruptions near the capital. By Cas Biekmann Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
South Korea's SKGC to explore feedstock shift to ethane
South Korea's SKGC to explore feedstock shift to ethane
Singapore, 20 November (Argus) — South Korea's SK Geocentric (SKGC) will explore using ethane as a feedstock at its naphtha cracking unit (NCC) in Ulsan, in a move away from naphtha feedstock, to enhance the cracker's competitiveness. SKGC signed a business agreement with SK Gas to "promote the ethane business", SK Innovation — the parent company of SKGC — said in a statement on 20 November. The two companies aim to establish a supply chain system from ethane imports to consumption, "thereby securing both price competitiveness and supply stability", according to the statement. SKGC's NCC at Ulsan can produce 680,000 t/yr of ethylene and 340,000t/yr of propylene, largely from naphtha. But SKGC is looking to diversity its "raw material structure", it said. Ethane is more cost competitive than naphtha, with lower price volatility and has a higher ethylene production efficiency, it added. Ethane is already widely used by major petrochemical companies in China, India and Europe, fuelled by an expansion of shale gas production in North America, the company said. US — the world's main exporter of ethane — is expected to continue growing its ethane exports by about 33pc in 2026 , compared with 2024, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Even after accounting for transport costs and terminal operating costs, ethane is still cost competitive compared with naphtha, said SKGC. Meanwhile, SK Gas will develop a terminal that can store and unload ethane, and aims to use this to supply the Ulsan complex. The two companies will specify ethane supply timing and volumes under the agreement, it said. But the timeline of this shift was not outlined. SK imports naphtha into the Ulsan and Incheon ports, taking in about 100,000-200,000 t/month of naphtha at the Ulsan port, according to data from trade analytics platform Kpler and market participants. Aside from SKGC's ethane project, South Korea's LG Chem, HD Hyundai Oilbank and Hanwha TotalEnergies Petrochemical had previously signed an agreement to look into joint ethane purchasing late last year. The three petrochemical companies had signed a memorandum of understanding to build ethane terminals and other infrastructure in Daesan, where their crackers are located, by 2028. By Cara Wong Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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