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Viewpoint: Capesize peaks to be limited by low Panamax

  • Spanish Market: Freight
  • 31/12/24

Capesize rates on the key routes are set to finish 2024 close to their lowest levels in two years, in stark contrast to most of this year.

Volatility in the market increased throughout 2024 and this is likely to continue into 2025. But low rates for the Panamax class and below will likely temper any probable future spikes in Capesize rates, as charterers will look to split cargoes rather than hike their Capesize bids.

The average annual Capesize freight rate from west Australia to Qingdao, China, surged in 2024 year on year by 16pc to $10.09/t. And on the Tubarao, Brazil, to Qingdao route by 18.5pc to $24.95/t. But there was significant volatility throughout the year as the average voyage time increased significantly on the back of more traffic between west Africa and east Asia, which meant that short-term shortfalls of tonnage in specific regions was increasingly common.

The only sustained rally for Capesize rates this year was from late-August to early-October. But this was when the market first started to split Capesize cargoes onto smaller vessels, which remained inexpensive. This primarily took place in the coal segment, and Capesize tonne miles (tmi) for coal cargoes dropped in October by 37pc to 103.4 trillion tmi, compared with October 2023, Kpler data show. At the same time, Panamax tmi for coal cargoes rose by 14.6pc to 200.5 trillion tmi.

This trend is also likely to ramp up in 2025 as Panamax rates have been under sustained pressure in 2024 and are likely to remain a cheap alternative when Capesize rates surge. But this will affect coal to a greater extent than iron ore as coal companies can switch between Capesizes and Panamaxes quickly, while for iron ore producers in Australia and Brazil this option is typically not viable.

The most pressing question now is: how long will any particular period of low Capesize rates last? Capesize rates fell sharply in early 2024, reaching a low in January before rallying again in early February. But a repeat of this pattern is unlikely in 2025 because it was driven in 2024 by the late onset of the rainy season and low precipitation in Brazil. This year's rainy season started earlier and precipitation is ample. Also, China's and India's lower currency rates and high stocks in China's ports will probably cap trading activity for some time.

Iron ore exports from Brazil could remain low until the end of the rainy season, likely in March-April. This is despite the recovery of the Carajas railway after a December blockade and the expected restart of Vale's CPBS terminal in Itaguai in January following maintenance. As a result, the Capesize market is expected to follow seasonal patterns and remain low in the first quarter of 2025.

But a rebound may occur in the second quarter. In Brazil, when the rainy season ends, increased iron ore volumes on the long-haul route will push Capesize tmi higher. This could trigger a rally in the Capesize market, as the order book is still low and the tonnage supply remains inelastic.

The Capesize market saw several brief rapid jumps, followed by equally rapid crashes, at year end. This trend will likely continue in the second quarter of 2025 after the market recovers from the usual first-quarter malaise. Along with the propensity to split coal cargoes, the historically low dry bulk order book and increased shipments from west Africa to east Asia have also been a key factor as it limits tonnage availability and has made supply increasingly inelastic, driving up rate volatility.

Every time iron ore demand climbs quickly — especially in the Atlantic — or adverse weather conditions occur in the Pacific and cause disruptions on the route from China to Australia — a new spike in Capesize rates occurs as the tighter vessel supply is unable to quickly respond.

This Capesize-Panamax tangent might be broken under certain circumstances: if Capesize rates fall back to 2023 levels (like now) or if next year's grain harvest is higher (particularly if China increases its buying of South American grain and decreases its buying of US grain in response to Donald Trump's upcoming tariffs), which pushes Panamax rates up.

The Red Sea could also be a factor in pushing Capesize tmi lower next year if it reopens, but this is highly unlikely. Shipping association Bimco assumes it may happen in 2025 or 2026, but it may last much longer, even in the case of a possible ceasefire between Israel and Palestine.

Capesize rates in 2025 will also likely be supported by higher demand, along with increasingly inelastic supply. Shipbroker Howe Robinson expects global iron ore trade to reach around 1.67bn t in 2024, up from around 1.64bn t in 2023.

"Volumes may further increase in 2025 as Vale and CSN commercialise their planned expansion projects," Howe Robinson said. China's rising steel and automobile exports can still offset slow domestic steel demand. The market potentially sees the first Simandou, west Africa iron ore cargoes in 2025, greatly increasing the average sailing distance for iron ore cargoes, according to industry forecasts.

A further driver to overall Capesize demand will be bauxite exports from Guinea that could rebound, especially if EGA finally solves its customs problems, which is yet to be solved at year end, according to market participants. China's bauxite imports surged in August by 41pc year on year to a new record high of 15.5mn t, shipbroker Ifchor-Galbraiths said. And the volumes will keep rising as China's alumina industry needs more raw material.

Global coal trade will continue to be less significant as Capesize trade, in spite of the fact that is projected to increase in 2024 by 1.9pc to 1.47mn t, according to Howe Robinson. Bimco predicts that the trade may start shrinking next year and beyond, falling by 1-2pc in 2025 and by 1.5-2.5pc in 2026, as the use of renewables in China rises and Indian domestic output increases. But coal will likely continue as a balancing factor between Capesize and Panamax markets.

In summary, the Capesize market may continue to be slow in the first quarter of 2025, while the market fundamentally remains inflexible and undersupplied. This could trigger a series of new rallies around March-May, when the rainy season in Brazil ends and demand typically increases. But cheap Panamaxes will probably create a ceiling for any future rallies, setting a trend for a more disrupted Capesize trade for 2025, until the new harvest comes.


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04/02/25

EU maritime emissions continue to rise: EMSA

EU maritime emissions continue to rise: EMSA

London, 4 February (Argus) — Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the EU's maritime sector have continued to rise since 2015, the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA) found in its 2025 environmental report, although "promising progress" has been made in some areas. Maritime activity was responsible for 26pc of methane emissions and 39pc of NOx emissions in the EU transport sector in 2022, as well as for 14.2pc of CO2 emissions from the sector, the report said. Methane emissions from maritime "at least doubled" from 2018-23, the report found, pushed up by growth in the LNG fleet. NOx emissions rose by 10pc from 2015-23, while CO2 emissions totalled 137mn t in 2022, having risen by 8.5pc from a year earlier. But sulphur oxide (SOx) emissions fell by approximately 70pc in 2023 compared with 2014 levels, EMSA said. This was driven mainly by the implementation of Sulphur Emission Control Areas (SECAs) in the Baltic and North seas, while the tightening of maximum sulphur levels in marine fuel in 2020 further contributed to the fall in SOx emissions. EMSA expects SOx emissions to drop further once a SECA is established in the Mediterranean Sea. And the northeast Atlantic countries may set up an emission control area by 2027. Biofuels are an "immediate, attractive and cost-effective solution" to cutting GHG emissions in the maritime sector, EMSA said. And synthetic and other drop-in fuels, which can be blended with fossil fuels, could help the shipping sector transition to lower emissions. But their costs could prove an obstacle because they are still "significantly higher" than for marine fossil fuels, the report said. Further electrification of ships could assist in decarbonising short-range waterborne transport, the report said. And the establishment of green shipping corridors — zero-emission maritime routes — could further encourage investment in sustainable fuels and supply chains, EMSA added. The EU emissions trading system-financed Innovation Fund has already supported more than 300 shipping projects, the report said, with funding to be deployed out to 2030. By Navneet Vyasan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Canadian oil transferred at PAL not subject to tariffs


03/02/25
03/02/25

Canadian oil transferred at PAL not subject to tariffs

Houston, 3 February (Argus) — Shipments of Canadian crude that are transferred onto very large crude carriers (VLCCs) at the Pacific Area Lightering zone (PAL) en route to Asia-Pacific will not be subject to tariffs. PAL lies in the US' exclusive economic zone (EEZ), which provides the US with sovereign rights over natural resources within the zone but permits all countries the right to freely navigate the surface waters, including crude tankers, according to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. US president Donald Trump's 10pc tariffs on Canadian energy, set to begin on 4 February, could reroute crude exports out of Vancouver, British Columbia, the Aframax-restricted terminus of the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline system. Since the first cargo from the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline project in May 2024, Canada has exported about 350,000 b/d from Vancouver through 31 January, according to Vortexa data. About 165,000 b/d went to the US west coast, and the other 185,000 b/d went to Asia-Pacific. The tariffs could price Canadian crude out of the US west coast and push more barrels across the Pacific. Shippers have shown a preference for direct voyages from Vancouver to Asia, sending about 115,000 b/d directly on Aframaxes and 70,000 b/d via VLCCs at PAL, Vortexa data show. By Tray Swanson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

LNG freight market to stay oversupplied until mid-2026


31/01/25
31/01/25

LNG freight market to stay oversupplied until mid-2026

London, 31 January (Argus) — A rebalancing of the LNG shipping market beyond mid-2026 may hinge on the rate of vessel demolition this year and next, as growth in the global fleet of LNG carriers is on course to outpace the ramp-up in global liquefaction capacity by mid-2026. LNG shipping capacity continued to outgrow global exports in 2024. The ratio between global LNG exports and operational LNG carriers fell to a multi-year low in the third quarter last year as a result of low scrappage, limited output additions, and seasonally lower LNG output before winter ( see chart ). Total operational LNG carriers rose to 739 by the end of 2024, up by 9pc on the year, while LNG loadings in the fourth quarter only edged up by 1.4pc on the year. The ratio between LNG exports and operational LNG carriers is set to rebound from summer 2026, when three of four phases of state-run QatarEnergy's 32mn t/yr North Field East LNG capacity expansion are expected to come on line, and assuming all new additions can ramp up to designed capacity within three months of their respective start. In contrast, any delays would prolong the present oversupply of shipping capacity. But the capacity balance in the shipping market is unlikely to recover to 2021-23 levels, unless vessel demolition rates pick up to around seven vessels each quarter in 2025, up from eight vessels during the whole of 2024 ( see chart ). For market dynamics to be similar to those in 2021-23, this ratio would need to be even higher than at that time, given that newbuilds are typically bigger in capacity — meaning fewer vessels are needed to transport the same amount of LNG. Most newbuilds coming into operation in 2024 had a capacity of 174,000m³ or more, compared with the average for the global LNG fleet of 146,000m³ at the end of 2023, according to LNG importers association GIIGNL. Many market participants had expected demolition rates to accelerate in 2024, especially for the older fleet of steam turbine vessels. Tighter emissions rules from the International Maritime Organisation have put pressure on this part of the LNG fleet , and these smaller vessels have become increasingly incompatible with new and bigger loading berths. The steam turbine fleet has the highest rate of idling. There are roughly 40 steam turbine vessels available in the spot market at present, out of 270 vessels in total, according to shipbrokers and Kpler. In contrast, only around 20 two-stroke vessels are available, out of 370 operational vessels in total. Slow steam release The number of vessel demolitions fell short of expectations in 2024 because many shipowners still hoped to sell their steam vessels for conversion, and many expect demolition rates to pick up in 2025 given prevailing low freight rates. Steam turbine vessels are often bought for conversion into floating storage units (FSUs) or floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs). Buying interest in 2024 was also driven partially by Dubai-based Nur Global Shipping, which acquired a number of ships that were later put under US sanctions for their apparent links with Russia's 19.8mn t/yr Arctic LNG 2 export terminal. The scrap metal market has seen more supply than demand since early 2022, which has weighed on cost recovery for shipowners from old vessels and even delayed decisions for demolition. The monthly average delivered price for containerised ferrous scrap metal in India — a key area for vessel demolition — has fallen steadily, to $376/t in January from more than $600/t in early 2022, although the current price is still higher than the historical low of $255/t in spring 2020. But many continue to expect demolition rates to pick up in 2025-27. Shipbroker BRS expects 123 vessels to be scrapped in 2025-27 because almost 75 steam turbine vessels are due to finish their term charters in the coming two years. The current spot freight rate for steam turbine vessels of $2,000-3,000/d is way below their operational cost of around $17,000/d, which may incentivise shipowners to send them to be scrapped. The present supply of steam turbine vessels at 270 also remains far higher than total conversion demand, although demand for FSUs and FSRUs is expected to increase towards the end of the decade, when LNG supply is poised to increase. By Xiaoyi Deng Global LNG exports vs shipping capacity Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

РЖД насчитала 400 тысяч невостребованных вагонов


31/01/25
31/01/25

РЖД насчитала 400 тысяч невостребованных вагонов

Moscow, 31 January (Argus) — Объем подвижного состава, необходимый для вывоза грузов, заявленных к перевозке на февраль, составляет 970 тыс. вагонов, сообщил на брифинге заместитель генерального директора — начальник Центральной дирекции управления движением РЖД Михаил Глазков. Количество вагонов вычислено по Методике расчета потребного парка, согласованной с Союзом операторов железнодорожного транспорта. Всего на сети находится около 1,38 млн вагонов всех родов, это абсолютный исторический рекорд для нашей страны. Таким образом, в феврале уже порядка 400 тыс. единиц — это излишний парк, который занимает инфраструктуру, не имея задачи, — отметил Глазков. Вместе с тем каждые 50 тыс. вагонов на инфраструктуре общего пользования, не подкрепленные спросом, становятся причиной замедления участковой скорости примерно на 1—1,2 км/ч, по данным РЖД. А это, в свою очередь, замедляет оборот подвижного состава на сети, что требует для обеспечения вывоза того же объема грузов дополнительно 120—140 локомотивов и 600—650 локомотивных бригад. С октября мы начали тщательнее нормировать нахождение порожнего подвижного состава на рейсе. В результате на конец прошлого года нам удалось временно отставить от работы 75 тыс. вагонов. Это дало нам улучшение участковой скорости на 2 км/ч, увеличение погрузки на 2%, рост выгрузки на 1,7 тыс. вагонов в сутки, поднятие 458 брошенных груженых поездов. По состоянию на конец января средняя участковая скорость выросла относительно середины октября на 5 км/ч, до 39,3 км/ч, — сообщил Глазков. По его словам, в текущем году работа продолжается, в частности, 28 января госкомпания разослала железнодорожным администрациям пространства 1520 факсограмму, запрещающую с 2 февраля вход порожнего парка на сеть РЖД. Ограничение не распространяется на вагоны с российской припиской, однако оно касается иностранного парка, находящегося в аренде у российских компаний. Цель решения — максимизация эффективности использования отечественного подвижного состава для перевозок по сети РЖД. Срок запрета не определен, но мы уже видим, что в феврале его отмена нецелесообразна, — заявил Глазков. Константин Мозговой ___________________ Больше ценовой информации и аналитических материалов о рынке транспортировки навалочных, генеральных грузов и контейнеров — в ежемесячном отчете Argus Логистика сухих грузов . Подписаться на аналитический дайджест Вы можете присылать комментарии по адресу или запросить дополнительную информацию feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Группа Argus Media . Все права защищены.

W Australia iron ore exports plummet because of cyclone


28/01/25
28/01/25

W Australia iron ore exports plummet because of cyclone

London, 28 January (Argus) — Combined iron ore exports from four of the largest producers in Western Australia (WA) were disrupted by cyclone Sean in the week to 25 January and fell to the lowest since April 2023 when cyclone Ilsa disrupted operations. BHP, Fortescue, Roy Hill and Rio Tinto loaded vessels with a combined capacity of 11.16mn deadweight tonnes (dwt) over 19-25 January, down from 14.72mn dwt a week earlier. The deadweight volume is the maximum capacity of a vessel and typically overestimates shipments by about 5pc. Exports dropped to the lowest since the week to 15 April 2023 — when volumes plummeted to 10.28mn dwt because of cyclone Ilsa. Rio Tinto's shipments dropped to 3.05mn dwt from 4.46mn dwt and below its 12-month weekly average of 6.39mn dwt. BHP loadings fell to 4.55mn dwt from 5.33mn dwt — well below its 5.92mn dwt 12-month weekly average. Fortescue's loadings dropped to 2.97mn dwt from 3.44mn dwt a week earlier and below its 3.83mn dwt 12-month average. Roy Hill's exports collapsed to just 590,000dwt dwt from 1.49mn dwt during the week to 25 January, far above its 12-month weekly average of 1.19mn dwt. Spot freight rates in the Pacific dropped recently after a short rebound in early January as iron ore demand remains slow ahead of the lunar new year holiday. Capesize rates on the key west Australia to north China route for cargoes loading from the end of January fell to $5.85/t on 28 January from a recent high of $6.60/t on 13 January. Overall iron ore shipments from the four main west Australia ports — Hedland, Walcott, Dampier and Onslow — fell to 61.89mn dwt on 1-28 January from 66.06mn dwt a year earlier, provisional shipping data indicate. Shipments to China — where most cargoes are destined for — dropped to 50.85mn dwt from 52.88mn dwt a year earlier. Exports to Japan and South Korea slid to 7.50mn dwt from 9.56mn dwt. By Andrey Telegin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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