Brazil’s inflation quickens to 4.58pc in September

Spanish Market: Agriculture, Biofuels, Electricity, Oil products
09/10/26

Brazil's inflation accelerated to an annual 4.58pc in September, on broad-based gains led by higher transport, food and beverage costs.

The consumer price index IPCA accelerated from 4.22pc in August, national statistics agency IBGE said on Friday. The latest move puts inflation slightly above the central bank's target range of 1.50-4.5pc.

Food and beverage costs increased to an annual 4.66pc in September, up from 3.53pc in August.

Transport costs increased to an annual 3.94pc in September from 3pc in August. Vehicle fuel inflation rose to 4.97pc from 4.41pc, as global fuel costs surged on the Mideast Gulf war.

Housing inflation decelerated to an annual 4.22pc from 4.9pc a month earlier, pushed down in part by the end of the Itapu bonus, which launched in July and reduces electricity bills for residential and rural consumers.

Personal expenses slowed to 5.9pc from 6.16pc.

Brazil's central bank expects inflation to end 2026 at 5pc, above its 1.5-4.5pc targeted range.

Brazil's economic growth has accelerated to an annual 2pc in the second quarter from 1.8pc in the prior three quarter after dropping from a recent high of 4.1pc in the third quarter of 2024.

Meanwhile, Brazil's central bank lowered its target rate to 13.75pc in late September.

By Mariana Funchal

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08/10/26

Mexico’s inflation quickens to 3.45pc in Sept.

Mexico City, 8 October (Argus) — Mexico's annual inflation accelerated to 3.45pc in September, the highest level since May, driven by upward pressure in the non-core index led by rising fruit and vegetable prices. The consumer price index (CPI) accelerated from an annual 3.26pc in August, according to statistics agency Inegi. While moving further above the central bank's 3pc inflation target, CPI has kept within the central bank's 2pc-4pc inflation tolerance range since May. September inflation came slightly below analyst forecasts, with Mexican banks Banorte and Banamex projecting 3.46pc and 3.5pc, respectively. Responding to the result, both banks revised their full-year 2026 estimates for the headline to 3.9pc from 4.0pc Core inflation eased further to 3.75pc in September from 3.88pc a month earlier. Within that, consumer goods slowed to 3.21pc from 3.41pc in August, and services inflation fell to 4.27pc from 4.33pc the previous month. September's faster headline rate was mainly fueled by the more volatile non-core index of prices, which accelerated to an annual 2.45pc from 1.13pc in August, largely because fresh fruit and vegetable prices expanded by an annual 8.78pc in September from 4.1pc in August. Energy inflation drove the non-core as well, accelerating sharply to 1.48pc from 0.81pc, despite government caps on LPG, regular gasoline and diesel retail prices to mitigate volatility stemming from the ongoing US conflict with Iran. Premium gasoline prices , which are not capped, maintained 11pc annual inflation in September. Price growth also accelerated for transportation, climbing to 3.51pc from 3.43pc in August, and for housing and utilities at 3.33pc in September from 3.06pc the previous month. In contrast, inflation for restaurants and hotels slowed to 6.19pc from 6.27pc in August. From the previous month, consumer prices rose 0.42pc, accelerating from a 0.20pc increase in August, Inegi reported. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Hurricane heads for US Gulf coast: Update

08/10/26

Hurricane heads for US Gulf coast: Update

Updates shut-in production data; port information Houston, 8 October (Argus) — Hurricane Isaias, the first named hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season, is moving toward the US Gulf coast near Alabama, threatening an area with significant refining assets and causing 1.3mn b/d of oil production to be shut in. Landfall is expected Friday night or early Saturday along the Florida-Alabama border, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The storm will be a strong Category 2 storm at landfall with sustained winds of up to 110 mph, according to AccuWeather. The NHC issued a hurricane warning with heavy rain and winds of 74 mph or higher from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the borders of Bay County and Gulf County in Florida. NHC also issued a tropical storm warning with winds between 39-73mph for a wider area stretching west to the Jefferson/Plaquemines parish borders in Louisiana and east to the Aucilla River in Florida. Isaias is currently in the Gulf of Mexico about 170 miles north of Progreso, Mexico, with sustained winds of 85 mph with higher gusts, according to the NHC. Oil and gas producers in the Gulf of Mexico have evacuated workers and curbed output ahead of the storm. As of 12:30pm ET Thursday, 1.3mn b/d of US oil production, or 63pc of total offshore output, was offline, according to the Marine Minerals Administration. About 1.1 Bcf/d of natural gas production, or 57pc of total US Gulf output, also was shut. Shell said earlier this week it was evacuating all staff and shut production at its Mars, Olympus, Ursa, Vito, and Appomattox assets as a precaution. Shell also moved non-essential personnel from its Stones platform. Chevron said it had shut in production at five of its operated facilities in the region. The onshore areas threatened by the storm include several large oil refineries, such as Chevron's 356,000 b/d Pascagoula, Mississippi, plant, PBF Energy's 190,000 b/d Chalmette, Louisiana, refinery, Marathon's 617,000 b/d Garyville, Louisiana, refinery, Shell's 231,000 b/d Norco, Louisiana, refinery and Valero's 125,000 Meraux and 215,000 b/d St Charles facilities also in Louisiana. Power outages and flooding could impact refinery operations at a time when US refiners are operating at levels above 90pc amid global fuel shortages caused by the wars in the Middle East and Russia. The current NHC projected trajectory of Isaias would likely spare most of the refineries in Louisiana from the most severe hurricane impacts. The US Coast Guard set the port of Mobile, Alabama, under condition Yankee, meaning gale force winds (39-54mph) were expected within 24 hours. Traffic restrictions were in effect Thursday morning allowing vessels to enter the port only with Coast Guard permission. The port said it would suspend vessel operations at its public berths at 1pm ET Thursday. The Coast Guard on 7 October set condition X-ray for the ports of Plaquemines, New Orleans, and St Bernard in Louisiana, which means gale force winds were forecast within 48 hours. Those ports remain open to commercial traffic. By Eunice Bridges and Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Hurricane heads for US Gulf coast, causing shut-ins

08/10/26

Hurricane heads for US Gulf coast, causing shut-ins

Houston, 8 October (Argus) — Hurricane Isaias, the first named hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season, is moving toward the US Gulf coast near Alabama, threatening an area with significant refining assets and causing offshore oil and gas production shut-ins. Landfall is expected Friday night or early Saturday along the Florida-Alabama border, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The storm will be a strong Category 2 storm at landfall with sustained winds of up to 110 mph, according to AccuWeather. The NHC issued a hurricane warning with heavy rain and winds of 74 mph or higher from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the borders of Bay County and Gulf County in Florida. NHC also issued a tropical storm warning with winds between 39-73mph for a wider area stretching west to the Jefferson/Plaquemines parish borders in Louisiana and east to the Aucilla River in Florida. Isaias is currently in the Gulf of Mexico about 170 miles north of Progreso, Mexico, with sustained winds of 85 mph with higher gusts, according to the NHC. Oil and gas producers in the Gulf of Mexico have evacuated workers and curbed output ahead of the storm. As of 12:30pm ET Wednesday, about 512,000 b/d of US oil production, or 25pc of total offshore output, was offline, according to the Marine Minerals Administration. About 350mn cf/d of natural gas production, or 16pc of total US Gulf output, also was shut. The onshore areas threatened by the storm includes several large oil refineries, such as Chevron's 356,000 b/d Pascagoula, Mississippi, plant, PBF Energy's 190,000 b/d Chalmette, Louisiana, refinery, Marathon's 617,000 b/d Garyville, Louisiana, refinery, Shell's 231,000 b/d Norco, Louisiana, refinery and Valero's 125,000 Meraux and 215,000 b/d St Charles facilities also in Louisiana. Power outages and flooding could impact refinery operations at a time when US refiners are operating at levels above 90pc amid global fuel shortages caused by the wars in the Middle East and Russia. The current NHC projected trajectory of Isaias would likely spare most of the refineries in Louisiana from the most severe hurricane impacts. By Eunice Bridges and Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

HVO-Absatz nimmt durch Preisvorteil stark zu

08/10/26

HVO-Absatz nimmt durch Preisvorteil stark zu

Hamburg, 8 October (Argus) — Die Handelsaktivität für HVO100 in Deutschland dürfte sich im laufenden Jahr nach Einschätzung mehrerer Marktteilnehmer gegenüber dem Vorjahr etwa verdoppeln. Ausschlaggebend hierfür ist, dass HVO zur TKW-Verladung bundesweit derzeit mit einem Abschlag zu B7-Diesel gehandelt wird, sodass Endverbraucher vermehrt auf das günstigere Produkt umsteigen. Verbraucher haben in diesem Jahr Händlern zufolge deutlich mehr HVO100 angefragt als im Vorjahr. Insbesondere Kunden aus der Landwirtschaft und gewerbliche Flottenbetreiber hätten ihre Beschaffungsmengen ausgeweitet. So berichtet ein Händler aus dem Süden Deutschlands, dass die verkauften HVO-Mengen in den ersten neun Monaten des Jahres 2026 bereits klar über dem Gesamtjahresniveau von 2025 liegen. Auch andere Marktteilnehmer berichten von einem deutlich lebhafteren Handel und sprechen von einer erwarteten Verdopplung der Marktaktivität im Jahr 2026 gegenüber dem Vorjahr. Grund für diesen Anstieg ist zum einen der Wegfall der Doppelenrechenbarkeit fortschrittlicher Biokraftstoffe . Zuvor konnten fortschrittliche Biokraftstoffe aus Abfall- und Reststoffen doppelt auf die Treibhausgasminderungsquote angerechnet werden. Darüber hinaus ist auch die zunehmende Wettbewerbsfähigkeit von HVO gegenüber fossilem Diesel ausschlaggebend: So stiegen die deutschen B7-Inlandsdurchschnittspreise im Zuge des Iran-Krieges im Vergleich zum 27. Februar um bis zu rund 48 % an. HVO ist von dieser Entwicklung weniger stark betroffen, da der Kraftstoff nicht auf fossilen Rohstoffen basiert und anderen Preisbildungsmechanismen folgt. Zum anderen wird diese Entwicklung durch historisch hohe Erlöse aus dem Handel mit Treibhausgasminderungen (THG-Minderungen) gefördert, welche durch das Inverkehrbringen von HVO generiert werden. Diese THG-Erlöse können genutzt werden, um die Großhandelspreise von HVO zu senken und das Produkt wettbewerbsfähig zu machen. So erreichten die aus dem Inverkehrbringen von fortschrittlichem HVO generierten THG-Erlöse in den vergangenen Wochen Rekordwerte und verharren weiterhin auf einem hohen Niveau (siehe Grafik). Begründet ist der höhere THG-Erlös im anhaltenden Niedrigwasser auf dem Rhein: Ein erheblicher Anteil der deutschen Biokraftstoffversorgung gelangt über das Handelszentrum Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerpen nach Deutschland gelangt, weshalb die niedrigen Pegelstände die Verfügbarkeit von Biokraftstoffen im Inland einschränken. Hierdurch wird die physische Erfüllung der THG-Quote erschwert, weshalb verpflichtete Unternehmen verstärkt auf den Erwerb von THG-Minderungen ausweichen müssen. Dieser Nachfrageanstieg hat den Wert von Minderungen steigen lassen und somit trotz reduzierter Produktverfügbarkeit die Wirtschaftlichkeit des Inverkehrbringens von HVO verbessert. Daher nahm der traditionelle Aufschlag von HVO zu B7-Diesel zunächst ab. Seit Mitte August wird HVO bundesweit erstmals mit einem Preisabschlag gegenüber B7 gehandelt. Bei allgemein hohen Kraftstoffpreisen zeigen sich Verbraucher preissensibler, weshalb Kunden vermehrt zum günstigeren erneuerbaren Dieselkraftstoff greifen. Der daraus resultierende Preisvorteil von HVO100 gegenüber B7-Diesel im Großhandel kommt mittlerweile zunehmend auch bei Endverbrauchern an. Während HVO100 an deutschen Tankstellen lange Zeit mit Aufschlägen von mehr als 20 ct/l gegenüber fossilem Diesel verkauft wurde, berichten Marktteilnehmer inzwischen von einer deutlichen Annäherung der Preise. Vielerorts bestehen inzwischen Aufschläge von 4 ct/l bis 8ct/l; an einzelnen Standorten wird HVO100 bereits günstiger angeboten als fossiler Diesel. Von Marcel Pott THG-Erlös durch Inverkehrbringen von fortschrittlichem HVO Preisdifferenz HVO100 gegenüber B7-Bundesschnitt Senden Sie Kommentare und fordern Sie weitere Informationen an feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . Alle Rechte vorbehalten.

Increase in Iran ship attacks follows rise in targets

08/10/26

Increase in Iran ship attacks follows rise in targets

New York, 8 October (Argus) — Iran's recent increase in vessel attacks in the strait of Hormuz is likely the result of an increase in the number of targets in the region, but it is unclear whether this resurgence of attacks will hamper rising oil flows through the strait. Iran has increased the pace of its attacks against commercial shipping in the last week, with increasingly deadly results. Two attacks occurred around the strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, including the first attack inside the Mideast Gulf in a month, which resulted in multiple casualties . The number of casualties in the incident has not yet been confirmed. "Iran has seemingly more targets to shoot at now, which could mean that the same probability of impact is resulting in higher raw numbers of successful attacks," Joshua Tallis, research program director at the Center for Naval Analyses, told Argus . It is difficult to assess if Iran has improved its ability to target ships without the coastal radar capabilities the US claims it destroyed as part of its increased strikes in July, Tallis said. But it is reasonable to assume the country has adapted. "Higher traffic creates more opportunities for exposure, while shuttle operations send the same ships repeatedly through the risk area," Claire Jungman, director of maritime risk and intelligence at vessel tracking firm Vortexa, told Argus . Through 24 September, Vortexa identified 148 tankers involved in shuttle operations, with 85 tankers active during September, up from 11 in April, with 42 of those tankers completing four or more runs through the strait of Hormuz. "That repeat participation is important: this has become a regular operating model for a core group of ships," Jungman said. It is unclear if the recent increase in attacks against tankers will stymie the recovery of crude exports that are making their way — albeit very expensively and inefficiently — through the strait of Hormuz. "It's still a bit too early to say whether the most recent salvos would have an impact, but in the past we've seen attacks did not deter the main actors in the shuttle trade," Tomer Raanan, senior maritime intelligence analyst at Lloyds List Intelligence told Argus . By Charlotte Bawol Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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