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Últimas noticias sobre productos del petróleo
Últimas noticias sobre productos del petróleo.
IMF warns of major risk to growth from US-EU tensions
IMF warns of major risk to growth from US-EU tensions
London, 19 January (Argus) — The IMF has upgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2026 but warned an escalation in trade tensions between the US and Europe is a "major risk." US president Donald Trump on 17 January threatened tariffs on several European countries in a bid to acquire the Danish territory of Greenland. This has raised concerns about a potential trade war between Europe and the US. "If we were to enter a phase in which there would be escalation and tit-for-tat policies… that would certainly have even more of an adverse effect on the economy, both through direct channels, but also through confidence, investment, and potentially through a repricing by [financial] markets," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said at the launch of the IMF's World Economic Outlook Update (WEO) today. The IMF raised its global growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3pc, citing improvements in the US and China, and kept its projection for 2027 unchanged at 3.2pc. It puts 2025 economic growth at 3.3pc, from a previous 3.2pc. IMF forecasts are used by many economists to model oil demand projections. The IMF has repeatedly upgraded its growth projections since April 2025 and now sees 2025 and 2026 growth higher than when US-led tariff disruptions started in early 2025. The outlook's economic assumptions are current as of 31 December so do not take into account the US' latest tariff threat against European countries. It assumes an effective tariff rate of 18.5pc for US imports from the rest of the world. Any change to this would be a major risk," Gourinchas said. "This is something that could materially impact growth if we have higher levels of tariffs, if we have higher levels of geopolitical tension." The IMF said the US-led investment boom in AI and strong fiscal stimulus in China and Germany was offsetting economic losses associated with higher tariffs. But Gourinchas warned that debt financing in the AI sector was becoming more prevalent, and this could "amplify shocks if returns failed to materialise." He said any correction in AI stock market valuations would have far reaching negative effects or the global economy. The IMF said fiscal discipline is weakening across the globe, particularly in advanced economies. "The risk here [is] that countries will be unable to face the significant challenges ahead in terms of population aging, climate transition, national security or ability to support the economy, should a large shock occur," Gourinchas said. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
API, ethanol groups clinch deal on US biofuel bill
API, ethanol groups clinch deal on US biofuel bill
New York, 17 January (Argus) — The American Petroleum Institute (API) and ethanol groups have agreed on reforms to US biofuel policy that they would like to see, teeing up a last-minute lobbying campaign to get the provisions included in federal budget legislation this month. API and ethanol supporters that include the Renewable Fuels Association and Growth Energy have aligned around limiting refineries' future exemptions from biofuel mandates and making some changes to a bipartisan bill that would permit a higher-ethanol gasoline blend, according to four people familiar with the deal and draft text shared with Argus . The groups' final framework — which they will pitch to lawmakers in the hopes of swiftly adding it to government spending bills this month — would authorize sales of up to 15pc ethanol gasoline (E15) year-round. Summertime sales of ethanol blends above 10pc are restricted in most of the US because of rules meant to minimize smog. If passed into law, the deal would be a major victory for ethanol producers who have long claimed wider access to the typically-cheaper blend would benefit farmers and drivers alike. Oil majors have grown more comfortable with E15 too, preferring consistent nationwide rules to costly workarounds like a looming shift in the midcontinent to a boutique fuel blend that would allow more ethanol. While the E15 fix would take effect immediately, the energy groups want to keep existing rules around biofuel quotas and exemptions in place through 2027. Under the current system, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) requires oil companies to blend minimum volumes of biofuels while allowing hardship exemptions for some small refineries that annually process no more than 75,000 b/d of crude. Starting in the 2028 compliance year, relief would be awarded only to companies that process 75,000 b/d or less across all their refineries and that also maintain that eligibility each year. These smaller facilities would win automatic 75pc exemptions from biofuel quotas starting in 2028 without having to apply each year, effectively ending discretion for regulators to choose which refineries deserve exemptions. Under the proposal, EPA starting in 2028 also would not require larger oil companies blend more biofuels to offset exemptions granted to their smaller rivals. This longer phase-in would address concerns from some energy lobbyists that more immediate changes could delay EPA's work to finalize new blend mandates. The agency wants to finalize new blend quotas for 2026 and 2027 in the coming weeks. Fuel fight The draft bill's text could change as lobbyists pitch the agreement to lawmakers and try to minimize backlash from oil refiners, people familiar with the matter said. But there is little time for more negotiations, with advocates of the deal pushing Congress to include it in legislation to fund government agencies after 30 January. Lawmakers have expressed similar urgency. There may be "news soon" on updates to the existing E15 bill draft, bill sponsor and US senator Deb Fischer (R-Nebraska) said in an online interview with Brownfield Ag News this week. The current deal would be a substantial blow to refiners that have won exemptions for small units in the past but run too many larger facilities to qualify under the proposed rules, including independent refiners Delek and Par Pacific. Other merchant refiners worry that the biofuel lobby will use wider ethanol access as a pretext to push for higher blend mandates in future years, which they say risks refinery closures. The American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers chief executive told Argus this week that his refinery members were divided over E15 talks. API had surprised its traditional oil refining allies last year by teaming up with ethanol interests on a larger biofuel policy package . Other biofuel producers have long wanted tighter restrictions on hardship waivers than the latest deal, another hiccup for negotiations. Particularly controversial among farm advocates is a holdover provision from the current E15 bill to grant some small refiners active credits they can use toward future mandates. API, the Renewable Fuels Association and Growth Energy as well as chief Senate bill sponsors Fischer and Shelley Moore Capito (R-West Virginia) did not immediately reply to requests for comment. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump threatens 10pc tariff against UK, EU members
Trump threatens 10pc tariff against UK, EU members
Houston, 17 January (Argus) — President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened to impose a 10pc tariff on US imports from the UK and seven key members of the EU, citing their participation in a military mission in Denmark's Greenland territory, which he is threatening to annex. US imports from the UK, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, The Netherlands, Norway and Sweden would be subject to a 10pc tariff from 1 February, rising to a 25pc tariff from 1 June, Trump announced via his social media platform. The tariff would remain in place until "such time as a Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland", Trump said. Trump has stepped up discussion of taking over Greenland — a self-governing island under Denmark's control — following a US special forces raid that captured Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro on 3 January. Denmark and Greenland have rejected US overtures to buy the island, as well as Trump's threat to take over the island by force. Trump is citing Greenland's alleged lack of military protection as the latest justification for his threats. He has denigrated Denmark's commitment to the island's defense against alleged threats from Russia and China. "They currently have two dogsleds as protection, one added recently," Trump said on Saturday. Denmark's foreign minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen, who traveled to Washington on 14 January to meet Trump administration officials, pushed back against that accusation. "Denmark has already stepped up our own contribution by committing additional funds for military capabilities — not [dogsleds], but ships, drones, fighter jets," Rasmussen said. The countries threatened with new tariffs by Trump joined Denmark to dispatch troops and military experts to Greenland on a mission to assess the island's security needs. Trump on Saturday said that the reconnaissance mission "journeyed to Greenland, for purposes unknown." EU leaders expressed solidarity with Denmark and called for dialogue, but they omitted mention of possible retaliation if Trump makes good on his threat to impose new tariffs. "Tariffs would undermine transatlantic relations and risk a dangerous downward spiral," European Council president Antonio Costa and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said in response to Trump's post. "Europe will remain united, coordinated, and committed to upholding its sovereignty." "Applying tariffs on allies for pursuing the collective security of Nato allies is completely wrong," UK prime minister Keir Starmer said on Saturday. "We will of course be pursuing this directly with the US administration." US imports from the UK already are subject to a 10pc import tariff, and imports from the EU face a 15pc tariff. While Trump is threatening tariffs against seven out of 27 EU members, the bloc collectively negotiates trade matters and sets tariffs. Trump is scheduled to attend the Davos Economic Forum in Switzerland on 21-22 January. A bipartisan delegation of 11 US senators and members of the House of Representatives traveled to Copenhagen on 16 January to express support for Denmark's government and push back against Trump's designs on Greenland. "There is no need, or desire, for a costly acquisition or hostile military takeover of Greenland when our Danish and Greenlandic allies are eager to work with us on Arctic security, critical minerals and other priorities under the framework of long-standing treaties," said US senators Jeanne Shaheen (D-New Hampshire) and Thom Tills (R-North Carolina), who were part of the congressional delegation. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Mexico says trade pact will hold despite Trump doubts
Mexico says trade pact will hold despite Trump doubts
Mexico City, 16 January (Argus) — Mexico remains confident that the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will be extended, even as US president Donald Trump questions the value of the pact that functions as a foundation for much of North America's trade. The three countries are working on the treaty's scheduled review this year and aim to meet the 1 July deadline to conclude the process, Mexico's economy minister Marcelo Ebrard said Thursday during president Claudia Sheinbaum's daily press conference. Negotiators have made steady progress on issues raised by each side, he said Ebrard's remarks come after Trump again put the USMCA's future in question earlier this week. During a visit to a Ford plant in Michigan, Trump dismissed the treaty as offering "no real advantage". The agreement, which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 2020, is a key driver of Mexico's economy, supporting trade and manufacturing supply chains tied to the US and Canada. This year's review cycle foresees a 16-year extension to the treaty if all three countries agree. Without an extension, the USMCA would shift to annual reviews, which analysts see leading to further uncertainty about trade and investment planning. Tariffs on some Mexican exports would probably remain in place even if the agreement is renewed, analysts have said. Bilateral relations have grown tense in the past year following Trump's repeated threats to pursue military action against criminal groups in Mexico. The US has also pressed Mexico to deliver faster progress on illegal drug traffic enforcement. Mexico's foreign minister Juan Ramon de la Fuente and US secretary of state Marco Rubio spoke by telephone on Thursday and reaffirmed the "importance of the US-Mexico partnership", both governments said in a joint statement. Following the call, the US State Department posted on X that "incremental progress" on border security is "unacceptable", and that upcoming engagements will require measurable results to dismantle trafficking networks and disrupt alleged fentanyl flows from Mexico into the US. Sheinbaum said earlier this week that she had ruled out any US military intervention following a "good conversation" with Trump on security issues. By Cas Biekmann Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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