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Últimas noticias sobre productos del petróleo
Últimas noticias sobre productos del petróleo.
Global warming set to exceed 1.5°C by 2030: Scientists
Global warming set to exceed 1.5°C by 2030: Scientists
London, 11 June (Argus) — The rise in global temperature is projected to surpass 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels — the limit sought by the Paris climate agreement — "in about four years", an international team of more than 70 scientists said today. "Human-induced warming reached 1.37°C" in 2025, compared with the 1850-1900 average, the latest Indicators of Global Climate Change report found. The Paris agreement seeks to curb the global rise in temperature to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursues a 1.5°C limit. "The rate at which heat is accumulating in the earth system suggests high levels of future warming", the report found. "The rate of human-induced warming remains at the all-time high of around 0.27°C per decade, driven primarily by record-high greenhouse gas levels." It estimated the remaining global carbon budget — the amount of CO2 that can still be emitted before the 1.5°C threshold is exceeded — is 130bn t/CO2, from the start of 2026. This estimate, which is a central one, "will be exhausted in around three years at current levels of CO2 emissions", the report found. Global greenhouse gas emissions reached a record high 56.8bn t/CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2024, according to the report, "mainly from the burning of fossil fuels." "Although we still have record high levels of emissions, the growth of those CO2 emissions is slowing," the EU Copernicus programme's strategic lead for climate Samantha Burgess said today. "That doesn't mean we're on track yet, but it does mean that policy, technology, and societal choices are starting to bend the curve." Burgess was speaking at climate talks underway in Bonn, Germany, hosted by UN climate body the UNFCCC. El Nino weather conditions have now developed in the tropical Pacific, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed today. The weather pattern, which is naturally-occurring, typically leads to higher global temperatures. Current forecasting suggest it is "likely to be a very strong event", the UK's Met Office said today. Some forecasts suggest "values that would be of record strength", the Met Office said. "It is also highly likely that the El Nino will cause a temporary spike in global annual temperature with the residual heat potentially making next year the hottest in the global series from 1850", Met Office head of long-range forecasting Adam Scaife said. The hottest year on record to date is 2024. The past three years, 2023-25, are the hottest three years recorded. The average temperature across 2023-25 was 1.48°C above pre-industrial levels — with a margin of uncertainty of 0.13°C — data consolidated by the World Meteorological Organisation show. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Produktion in Europa lukrativ, Deutschland überversorgt
Produktion in Europa lukrativ, Deutschland überversorgt
Hamburg, 10 June (Argus) — Die rechnerischen Margen europäischer Raffineure sind derzeit vor dem Hintergrund fehlender Import-Mengen aus der Golf-Region auf dem höchsten Stand seit dem sanktionsbedingten Wegfall von russischem Rohöl und Ölprodukten im Sommer 2022. Gleichzeitig übersteigt das heimische Angebot in Deutschland vielerorts die Nachfrage, was die Margen im Inland vergleichsweise drückt. Durch den Krieg in Nahost müssen Importeure weiterhin auf beispielsweise Diesel oder Kerosin aus der Region verzichten und stattdessen auf andere Bezugsquellen zurückgreifen, insbesondere die Vereinigten Staaten . Durch diese Verknappung des internationalen Angebots und die entsprechende Umstellung der Lieferwege sind die Produktpreise innerhalb Europas seit Anfang März deutlich gestiegen. Neben den raffinierten Produkten verteuerte sich auch Rohöl — allerdings vergleichsweise weniger stark (siehe Grafik). Dies resultiert in höheren Profitmargen für europäische Raffineure: Die rechnerischen Margen sind zuletzt wieder leicht gesunken, bleiben aber weiterhin knapp viermal so hoch wie im Durchschnitt der Jahre 2010 bis 2019 (siehe Grafik). Für diese Berechnung nimmt Argus an, dass Raffineure aus acht Barrel Rohöl in Europa drei Barrel Diesel, zwei Barrel Benzin und jeweils ein Barrel Rohbenzin, Flugzeugtreibstoff und schweres Bunkeröl gewinnen. Darüber hinaus basiert die Rechnung auf dem zweiten Monat der jeweiligen Produkt-Futures, was laut Marktteilnehmern eine bessere Entscheidungsgrundlage für Raffineriebetreiber darstellt als prompte Margen. Während die rechnerischen Margen also weiterhin auf hohem Niveau verweilen, fallen gleichzeitig die Aufschläge, die Käufer für die physische Lieferung von Rohöl gegenüber den Futures-Kontrakten zahlen. Diese Prämien erreichten am 9. April ein Allzeit-Hoch von knapp 34 $/bl, als viele Marktteilnehmer gleichzeitig nach Alternativen zu ihren Lieferanten in Nahost suchten. Entsprechend waren damals die realen Raffineriemargen teils deutlich niedriger, als eine Berechnung auf Basis von Futures-Kontrakten vermuten ließ. Inzwischen sind diese Zuschläge dramatisch zurückgegangen, was die Profitabilität von Raffinerien in Europa zusätzlich stützen dürfte — sie bleiben aber weiter knapp doppelt so hoch wie noch vor Beginn des Krieges in der Golf-Region (siehe Grafik). Deutscher Markt trotz Krise überversorgt Während die Auswirkungen der Nahost-Krise in vielen Regionen der Welt spürbar sind, kommt der deutsche Markt mit Blick auf die Produktverfügbarkeit bislang noch vergleichsweise ungeschoren davon. Ein Grund hierfür ist die hohe Raffinerieproduktion im Inland: Derzeit werden in keiner deutschen Raffinerie Wartungsarbeiten durchgeführt; Lediglich die Produktion in der PCK Raffinerie (204.000 bl/Tag) in Schwedt ist aufgrund fehlender Rohöllieferungen über die Druschba-Pipeline von zuvor knapp 90 % auf etwa 80 % gedrosselt. Das hohe Inlandsangebot trifft auf eine schwache Nachfrage angesichts deutlich gestiegener Preise, vor allem Heizölkäufer halten sich zurück und kaufen nur das nötigste — was das Überangebot von Gasöl in Deutschland verschärft. Dies zeigt sich auch in den an Argus gemeldeten Heizölvolumen: Nachdem die Angst vor weiter steigenden Preisen am 2. März noch mit 40.000 m³ zu dem absatzstärksten Tag seit Anfang Mai 2022 führte, brach die Nachfrage daraufhin deutlich ein. Im gesamten März 2026 wurden bundesweit knapp 138.000 m³ gemeldet. Dies entspricht einem Rückgang von mehr als 60 % gegenüber dem März 2025. Und auch im zweiten Quartal liegen die tagesdurchschnittlich an Argus gemeldeten Heizölvolumen bislang etwa 60 % unter dem Vorjahreszeitraum. Zusätzlich zum aktuen Nachfrageeinbruch sehen sich Anbieter in Deutschland auch mit einem strukturellen Rückgang des Gasölbedarfs konfrontiert: Die zunehmende Nutzung von E-Autos, der fortschreitende Umstieg auf Alternativen zur Ölheizung, sowie die Abwanderung von Industrie ins Ausland drücken den Bedarf hierzulande. So ist beispielsweise der Dieselbedarf in Deutschland zwischen dem Vorkrisenjahr 2019 und 2025 um knapp 12 % gesunken. Im gleichen Zeitraum ist der Heizölbedarf sogar um knapp 32 % eingebrochen. Das entstehende Überangebot in Deutschland zeigt sich unter anderem in den rechnerischen Margen für Gasöl-Importe aus dem Handelszentrum Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerpen (ARA) zu Standorten am Rhein und Main. Während sich zusätzliche Spot-Einfuhren per Barge bereits vor Beginn des Krieges nicht lohnten, sind sie seitdem zunehmend unattraktiver geworden (siehe Grafik). Dies führt in den vergangenen Wochen dazu, dass Anbieter ihr Gasöl teils nach ARA exportieren, um von den dort höheren Preisen zu profitieren anstatt wie üblich Produkt von dort zu importieren. Die Kombination aus Mengendruck im Inland und ungewöhnlichen Ausfuhren legen den Schluss nahe, dass die Raffineriemargen innerhalb Deutschlands tendenziell schlechter sind, als in der gesamteuropäischen Betrachtung. Eine detaillierte Betrachtung der generellen Profitabilität von Raffinerien innerhalb Deutschlands ist schwierig, da sich insbesondere der verwendete Rohölmix mit Blick auf Qualität und Produktausbeute teils deutlich unterscheidet. Zusätzlich beziehen Betreiber neben Cargo-Preisen auch Inlands-TKW-Preise in unterschiedlicher Gewichtung in ihre Kalkulationen mit ein — entsprechend groß sind wahrscheinlich die Unterschiede in den jeweiligen Margen. Von Johannes Guhlke Entkopplung Produktpreise von Rohöl seit Iran-Krieg Rechnerische Raffineriemargen Nordwesteuropa Aufschlag für physisches Rohöl gegenüber Futures Marge Barge-Import aus ARA nach Senden Sie Kommentare und fordern Sie weitere Informationen an feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . Alle Rechte vorbehalten.
Bunker lead times grow since US–Iran war began
Bunker lead times grow since US–Iran war began
Sao Paulo, 10 June (Argus) — Shipowners and traders have been booking spot bunker fuel supplies further in advance since the start of the Iran–US conflict, according to data collected by Argus . The longer lead times, between the placing of a bunker fuel order and the fuel being supplied, reflect concerns about potential supply disruptions and strategies to deal with price volatility. Disruption to shipping through and around the strait of Hormuz has encouraged buyers to secure fuel as far as four to six weeks ahead rather than risk encountering shortages, market participants said. Argus ' bunker assessments are typically for deliveries with a maximum of 9-12 days and up to 14 days for certain African ports. The shift reflects concerns about reduced availability, with around 20pc of global crude having previously transited the strait now missing and therefore restricting supply of bunker grades. Higher freight costs have also reduced the economic incentive for suppliers to import fuel, which further reduced availability. Very-low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) prices have strengthened sharply across major bunkering hubs since the start of the US-Iran war, reflecting tightening feedstock availability and growing supply concerns. Delivered VLSFO indications in Rotterdam have rose by around 45pc from 28 February to 31 May, prices in Panama increased by 49pc and in Singapore by 47pc. The tightening market has been particularly evident in Fujairah, the world's fourth-largest bunkering hub, where an acute supply shortage has left most suppliers without prompt VLSFO availability until mid-June. Market participants said disruptions to regional feedstock flows and the loss of supply from Kuwait's al-Zour refinery sharply reduced local blending activity, pushing Fujairah VLSFO premiums to record highs of $500-700/t against front-month Singapore cargo values in early June. The change in buying patterns has been happening worldwide. Delivery times for VLSFO in Singapore have extended to about 10-15 days forward in some cases, depending on supplies given tight blendstock availability, traders said this week. Typical delivery periods of about 7-10 days forward remain possible. Singapore loadings for low-sulphur marine gasoil (LSMGO) have also slowed, with market participants expecting this to ease only in the second half of June. LSMGO supplies are tight because of delays in cargo arrivals from South Korea, and most current availability will go towards previously booked orders. The lead time for high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) has been steady at around 4-5 days, as supplies are ample in Singapore. In Gibraltar, the average lead time in the three months before the war started was around five days. This is now 10 days. In Rotterdam the average booking period is up to 10 days from seven. In South America, rising vessel traffic through the Panama Canal has increased congestion and lengthened waiting times. The tighter transit window has pushed bunker buyers in Balboa and Cristobal to secure fuel further in advance, with market participants reporting a shift away from prompt procurement toward longer lead-time bookings to ensure product availability and align deliveries with delayed canal crossings. The average bunker fuel lead time in the Panama Canal increased to 14 days in March-May, from 10 days in the three months ending 28 February. In Brazilian ports, longer lead times have also been driven by rising fuel oil export flows to Singapore, where demand for Brazilian supply has increased because of the disruption linked to the strait of Hormuz. The additional export pull has reduced feedstock availability for VLSFO blending in Brazil, tightening prompt supply at key ports like Santos and Paranagua. Santos' average bunker fuel lead times increased to 10 days in March-May, from eight days in the three months to 28 February. In Paranagua, average lead times rose to 13 days from 10 days over the same period. By Gabriel Tassi Lara, Natália Coelho and Cassia Teo Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Kuwait eyes regional pipeline tie-ups to bypass Hormuz
Kuwait eyes regional pipeline tie-ups to bypass Hormuz
Dubai, 10 June (Argus) — Kuwait's state-owned KPC is exploring potential tie-ups with fellow Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries Saudi Arabia and the UAE that could help move its crude and oil products in the event of any future disruptions to flows through the strait of Hormuz. Kuwait is totally dependent on the strait to export its crude and oil products, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pipelines that allow them to divert a share of their oil to ports outside the strait. That has helped them better navigate the more than three-month closure of Hormuz triggered by the start of the US-Iran war on 28 February. "We are in discussions with our brothers in Saudi Arabia and in the Emirates to look at how to expand the pipeline system that they have to accommodate Kuwaiti barrels coming up," KPC chief executive Sheikh Nawaf al-Sabah told the Atlantic Council Global Energy Forum. Saudi Arabia's 7mn b/d capacity East-West pipeline can carry crude from the Abqaiq oil processing complex in the Eastern Province to the Yanbu terminal on the Red Sea for export. The UAE's 1.7mn b/d Adcop pipeline carries crude from Habshan in Abu Dhabi to Fujairah, outside the strait of Hormuz. Sheikh Nawaf said the GCC typically has a mechanism that if one member cannot export oil for whatever reason, another with additional capacity could export on their behalf "and tally it up afterwards." But since "nobody has that capacity" given the situation in the strait, "instead, we are working with our brothers to look at pipeline capacity that can grow out," he said. He did not specify which projects Kuwait was studying with its neighbors. The KPC chief did caution, however, that an alternative export route would not totally insulate Kuwait, or any other country, from risk. Pipelines "are only as safe as the export facility at the end of it," Sheikh Nawaf said. "And you've seen how Iran has targeted both the Saudi and Emirati pipelines, and how those [attacks] have been effective, to a certain degree." Fujairah was targeted on five separate occasions between late February and early June, according to Argus tracking, Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port was targeted once, and the East-West pipeline was targeted once , temporarily reducing throughput capacity by around 700,000 b/d. "A long pipeline needs compression. So, if you hit one node of that compression, you've got to rebuild that," said Sheikh Nawaf. "The easiest thing to rebuild or replace is the pipeline itself. But if you hit the compression facility, that takes more time." "And worse yet, is if you hit the export facility, because then, the pipeline is essentially useless," he said. "And we would have to work together with our partners [to recover]." Swift-ish recovery The disruption of oil flows through the strait of Hormuz forced Kuwait to scale back its crude production capacity to about 25pc of pre-conflict levels. "We took our production levels down at the beginning of the war, carefully and methodically, to what is only required for local consumption in Kuwait, because we could not export anything," Sheikh Nawaf said. Latest Argus estimates put Kuwaiti crude output at 580,000 b/d in May, compared with 2.59mn b/d in February. Many weeks of on-and-off diplomacy between Iran and the US has not led to clarity on when marine traffic could meaningfully recover, but Sheikh Nawaf said when it does Kuwait should be able to resume the majority of its production within less than a month. "We could get back to 80pc of our shut-in production [back] in less than a month, probably three weeks, because we have resilient reservoirs," he said. With around 2mn b/d of crude output shut-in, this would imply a return of 1.6mn b/d within weeks, lifting output to around 2.1mn b/d. Sheikh Nawaf suggested the shut-in of some reservoirs may have "benefited" them because it "allowed them to settle and recharge, essentially, the underground pressure." But he said the final 20pc "is always the hardest," which could take another "three to four months" to recover. By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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