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Mexican GDP outlook dims on tariffs: IMEF
Mexican GDP outlook dims on tariffs: IMEF
Mexico City, 21 May (Argus) — Mexico's association of finance executives IMEF lowered its 2025 growth forecast for a fourth consecutive month, citing the growing impact of US tariffs on the economy. GDP is now expected to grow just 0.1pc in 2025, according to IMEF's May survey, down from 0.2pc estimates in April, 0.6pc in March and 1pc in February. The number of respondents forecasting a contraction in GDP rose to 16, or 37pc of the sample, from nine in April. While the US has granted some exemptions and discounts for Mexican goods meeting regional content rules, IMEF said the effective tariff rate on Mexican exports remains higher than that for Canada, Brazil, India, Vietnam and others. "We're already seeing the [tariffs'] impacts," said IMEF economic studies director Victor Herrera, adding that May trade data will likely show a sharp drop in Mexican exports to the US. Trade is also being hit by a screwworm outbreak in cattle that led to port closures last week and curtailed beef exports, which account for $1.3bn in annual exports. More automakers could relocate or scale back production in Mexico, Herrera said, after Stellantis confirmed plans to shift some operations to the US and recent reports Nissan may close one or both of its Mexican plants. In response, Mexico this week sent deputy economy minister Luis Rosendo Gutierrez to Tokyo to meet with Mazda, Nissan, Toyota and Honda executives. IMEF cut its 2025 job creation forecast to 200,000 in May from 220,000 in April. Mexico's social security administration IMSS reported only 43,500 new jobs over the past 12 months as of 5 May. Beyond trade, IMEF flagged uncertainty from recent constitutional reforms and the potential for a US tax on remittances as additional risks to growth. The group held its 2025 inflation forecast steady at 3.8pc, despite Mexico's consumer price index rising to 3.93pc in April from 3.80pc in March . IMEF noted concerns about a potential rebound in inflation later this year after the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 9pc on 8 May — the third such cut in 2025. The group now sees the end-2025 rate at 7.75pc, down from 8pc previously. IMEF expects the peso to end the year at Ps20.80/$1, slightly lower than the Ps20.90/$1 forecast in April. The peso recently strengthened to Ps19.34/$1, though Herrera said this reflected dollar weakness more than peso strength. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EPA to set biofuel mandate 'very soon': Zeldin
EPA to set biofuel mandate 'very soon': Zeldin
New York, 21 May (Argus) — Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) administrator Lee Zeldin stressed Wednesday that the US is working quickly to propose and finalize new biofuel blend mandates. EPA last week sent proposed Renewable Fuel Standard volumes for 2026 — and likely at least one future year — to the White House Office of Management and Budget for review, the final step before a draft rule can be released. Zeldin referenced that process at a Senate hearing Wednesday and said "we expect the proposed rule to be finalized and released very soon." Asked by US senator Pete Ricketts (R-Nebraska) whether the agency was planning on releasing something by summer or fall, Zeldin said he was eyeing a "much, much faster" timeline. "We'll finalize this as quickly as we possibly can," he said. Zeldin has stressed at recent House and Senate hearings that the agency is expediting the months-delayed rulemaking. Under the Renewable Fuel Standard, EPA requires oil refiners and importers to blend annual amounts of different types of biofuels into the conventional fuel supply. EPA decisions on volume mandates — and on requests for exemptions from small refiners — are highly influential for crop feedstock demand, biofuel production margins and retail fuel prices. Zeldin said last week at a House subcommittee hearing that EPA was also weighing what to do with a backlog of requests from small refiners for exemptions from program requirements. "None of these were getting approved at all in the last administration," Zeldin said. "We want to get caught up as quickly as we can." EPA has not commented more recently on its specific timeline and plans, but the agency said earlier this year that it wanted to get the frequently delayed biofuel program back on its statutory timeline. The Clean Air Act requires new volumes to be finalized 14 months in advance of a compliance year, which in this case would require proposed volumes for 2027 to be released soon for public comment and then finalized before November this year. A coalition of industry groups, including the American Petroleum Institute and Clean Fuels Alliance America, have pushed the agency to hike the biomass-based diesel mandate from 3.35bn USG this year to a record-high 5.25bn USG next year. Other groups, including fuel marketers, have urged more caution given a sharp drop in biofuel production to start 2025 and uncertainty about the future of a federal clean fuel tax credit being renegotiated in Congress. As part of the White House process, outside groups can seek meetings with the Trump administration to present their views on a pending regulation. Meetings are scheduled through 4 June on the proposed volumes — and through 9 June on a related rule to cut last year's cellulosic biofuel quota — though the US has expedited the process before. Last year, President Joe Biden's administration cancelled previously scheduled meetings on the initial proposal to cut cellulosic targets as a way to more speedily exit the review process. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Weather, crush margins to cushion RSO from UK-EU deal
Weather, crush margins to cushion RSO from UK-EU deal
London, 21 May (Argus) — The establishment of a UK-EU Sanitary and Phytosanitary Zone (SPS), announced at the UK-EU summit this week, could boost flows of UK-origin rapeseed oil (RSO) to the bloc. But pressure from increased availability on fob Dutch mill RSO prices could be somewhat offset by lower crush margins in Europe and international weather markets. The UK's share in the EU's RSO import mix fell markedly after the country exited the bloc in 2020. The UK accounted for just 7pc of extra-EU imports across the last two marketing years (July-June) to date, customs data show, compared with an average of 41pc between 2016 and 2020 (see chart). Agreed removals of some certifications and routine checks on EU-bound UK exports are likely to boost the volumes of UK RSO going to the EU, market participants said. But the pressure of increased supply from the UK on cargoes loading in the Netherlands could be cushioned by less attractive crushing margins and a wait-and-see approach to farmer selling. Relatively low rapeseed crush margins — which have fallen by around €10/t on the year for August-September-October positions, market participants told Argus — has weighed on EU domestic crushing activity. This has largely offset price support from thin biofuel-sector demand in Europe and could limit the impact of greater supply potential from the UK. And UK rapeseed supply is set to fall below previous years' levels, with planted areas forecast at a record-low 240,000 hectares (ha) in 2025-26 by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA)'s local attache. Farmers have been deterred from rapeseed production by unattractive margins and unfavourable growing conditions in the prior season, according to the USDA. This, paired with forecast firming domestic demand, could limit available supply to the EU compared with pre-Brexit marketing seasons. Participants across the rapeseed market are now monitoring crop conditions in producing regions, with many farmers holding back from committing to new-crop sales. UK crop conditions are rated 59pc good-to-excellent as of April, latest Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board data show — roughly in line with the previous three-year average of 61pc for this stage in the season. But recent dry weather across the UK and Europe could lead to some uncertainty, with producers awaiting forecast rainfall later this week to offer greater clarity on crop conditions. Further afield, global RSO supplies could come under some pressure from a deteriorating Ukrainian production outlook and low Australian soil moisture levels. By Megan Evans UK share of extra-EU RSO imports '000t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Phillips 66 shareholders split board vote
Phillips 66 shareholders split board vote
Houston, 21 May (Argus) — Activist hedge fund Elliott Investment Management is set to win two seats on Phillips 66's board of directors, short of its goal of four seats, according to preliminary results. Two Phillips 66 nominees were also elected in the vote, a positive result for the US refiner and midstream operator. Elliott, which has amassed a $2.5bn stake in Phillips 66, had put forth four nominees for the board in a proxy fight which culminated today at an annual meeting of shareholders. Both sides declared victory after the split vote on the four open seats. Phillips 66 said the vote reflects a belief in its integrated strategy of holding assets in different sectors, while Elliott said the vote "sends a clear message" that shareholders demand meaningful change at Phillips 66. The two Elliott nominees elected to the 14-member Phillips 66 board are Sigmund Cornelius, former chief financial officer of ConocoPhillips and Michael Heim, former chief operating officer of Targa Resources, according to preliminary voting results. The two Phillips 66 nominees elected to the board are Nigel Hearne, a 35-year veteran of Chevron, and Robert Pease, a former Motiva and Cenovus downstream executive who was appointed to the board in 2024 to address Elliott's concerns about a shift in focus from refining to midstream. Phillips 66 also said today that shareholders "overwhelmingly" rejected an Elliott proposal requiring annual director resignations, according to the preliminary results. The voting tally will be tabulated and certified by an independent inspector and final results will be reported to the US Securities and Exchange Commission. The two Elliott nominees for the Phillips 66 board who were not elected are Brian Coffman, former chief executive at Motiva, and Stacy Nieuwoudt, former energy analyst at Citadel. The two Phillips 66 nominees to the board that were not elected are current director John Lowe, who was up for re-election, and Howard Ungerleider, a former Dow president and chief financial officer. Long-running battle over direction Elliott contends that Phillips 66 has consistently trailed its industry peers and needs to streamline operations, including spinning off or selling its midstream business, selling its 50pc stake in Chevron Phillips Chemical (CPChem), and possibly other assets. Elliott has waged an aggressive campaign, launching a website dubbed "Streamline 66" with power point presentations, podcasts, biographies of its dissident board nominees, press releases and information on how shareholders can vote. Phillips 66 has told shareholders that its board and management team are implementing a transformative strategy that has delivered results. The company has expanded its NGL business, improved its refining cost structure and continues to position CPChem as the lowest cost producer of ethylene, Phillips 66 said. Phillips 66 told shareholders that Elliott was pushing "an aggressive short-term agenda" that would cause disruption, slow momentum and jeopardize shareholders' investment capital. Phillips 66 has made some adjustments since Elliot started to agitate for change. In addition to adding Pease to the board, the company recently agreed to sell off some of its European retail business , and expects about $1.6bn in pre-tax cash proceeds from the sale that it will use toward debt reduction and shareholder returns. But the refiner has resisted the other major Elliott recommendations to divest its midstream business and sell its 50pc share of CPChem, saying earlier this month that the Phillips board has evaluated them and "came to the conclusion that neither action is in the best interest of long-term shareholders at this time". Meanwhile, Chevron has advised Phillips 66 of its interest in acquiring the other half of CPChem "at a reasonable value for both parties", Chevron chief executive Mike Wirth said on 2 May. Three top shareholder advisory firms [backed the Elliott nominees] (https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2687988) in the proxy fight. Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) and Egan-Jones recommending all four of Elliot's dissident nominees, while Glass Lewis backed three of the four. By Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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