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Paraguayan president resigns on banking scandal
Paraguayan president resigns on banking scandal
Sao Paulo, 5 November (Argus) — Paraguay is in the grips of its worst political crisis in years, with President Santiago Pena submitting his resignation on Thursday following a banking scandal. Pena said in a recording that he was resigning, "with the stability of our country, social peace, and the need to preserve our democratic institutions in mind". The crisis could undermine Paraguay's image as a stable economic bet in the region, with the country trying to court investment in energy and mining, including critical minerals. In late October, it joined the US-led US Pax Silica program to secure supply chains that include critical minerals. In August, it began talks with the US to sign an agreement on nuclear energy. The government has also been working to attract the first private investment in power, with a 140MW tender for solar power scheduled for the first quarter of 2027. The crisis, months in the making, exploded on 2 November when the central bank said that it would intervene in digital bank Ueno. The bank had 2.94mn clients, equivalent to 63pc of Paraguay's adult population. Pena has been closely linked to the bank since the previous decade, when he was finance minister. After his election to a five-year term in 2023, he named Ueno chief executive Carlos Carvallo to head the central bank. The president tried to distance himself from the bank, but the scandal only deepened. He called for Carvallo's resignation and submitted emergency legislation to the legislature to ensure deposits were honored. Adding to the problem, the government under Pena moved a large amount of the state's pension funds to Ueno. At the time of the intervention, Ueno held 11pc of pension funds, one point above the legal limit. Opposition lawmakers threatened to impeach him and might still try, with senator Esperanza Martinez calling on colleagues to reject Pena's resignation and hold impeachment hearings for him and vice-president Pedro Alliana. It is a long shot, with Pena's Colorado party holding 48 of the 80 seats in the lower house and 23 of 45 seats in the senate. Alliana will serve out the term through the next elections in 2028. The Ueno scandal is not the only international issue Alliana would inherit. It faces arbitration from UK-listed Atome after the government reneged on a power purchase agreement (PPA). Atome secured more than $600mn in financing earlier this year for a 260,000 metric tonnes/yr project to produce calcium ammonium nitrate fertilizer. It was contingent on a 145MW PPA agreed to with the state-owned power utility Ande, but Pena in June repealed decrees that allowed Atome to sign a contract. Atome arbitration claim states that Paraguay violated its bilateral investment treaty with the UK. Markets pause Paraguay's fuel importers, distributors and traders have adopted a wait-and-see approach following Pena's resignation, suspending new negotiations for both fossil fuels and biofuels. Market participants said it is too early to assess the crisis' impact, especially on the foreign exchange rate. One importer said the sharp decline in Nymex heating oil and RBOB futures contracts currently more than offsets the effect of the weaker Paraguayan currency. Paraguay has no domestic crude production or refining capacity and relies entirely on imports to meet its fuel demand. Ethanol market participants expect the situation to prompt pricing increases on both corn and sugarcane-based volumes. Producers are closely monitoring any blending policy changes promoted by the new administration. By Lucien Chauvin, Flavia Alemi and Pedro Consoli Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil central bank pauses at 13.75pc, cites war risks
Brazil central bank pauses at 13.75pc, cites war risks
Sao Paulo, 4 November (Argus) — Brazil's central bank held its target rate unchanged at 13.75pc on Wednesday, citing "prolongation" of conflicts in the Middle East and their impacts on energy prices and more restrictive monetary policy in advanced economies. Policymakers paused after cutting by a quarter point in September, a fifth consecutive cut that brought the rate down from a cyclical high of 15pc in March, where it had held since June 2025, as policymakers battled to bring down inflation. The target rate at 15 was its highest rate since 2006. "The external environment has become more adverse given the prolongation of armed conflicts, with upward impacts on oil and derivatives, and a more restrictive monetary policy in advanced economies," policymakers said in their statement. "Such a scenario requires greater caution on the part of emerging economies." The bank cited "gradual moderation of economic activity, mainly in more cyclical sectors, although still at a resilient level, and a heated labor market." Policymakers warned that inflation may top the target of 5.2pc for this year and 4.8pc for 2027. It also cited concerns over higher prices for crude, due to supply effects from the conflicts in Middle East, and electricity, due to climate effects on agriculture. The Brazilian real depreciated more than 10pc to as low as R5.5/$1 after Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was reelected president on 25 October, defeating right-wing challenger senator Flavio Bolsonaro. The real had strengthened about 5pc in the last month before voting and was little changed over the past 12 months. Brazil's inflation accelerated to an annual 4.58pc in September led by higher transport costs fueled by the US-Iran war, from 4.22pc in August, after falling the prior two months. Brazil's GDP growth rose to an annual 1.9pc in the second quarter from 1.8pc in the previous quarter, according to IBGE data. Concerns about a lack of fiscal adjustment have intensified amid uncertainty over the choice of a new finance minister and Lula's re-election and his tax policy for his fourth mandate. Financial markets also reacted to Lula's win , with Bovespa stock index futures falling by nearly 15pc and interest rate futures rising. Lula has been consulting economists on ways to enable lower borrowing costs, and is seeking candidates to fill four seats on Brazil's central bank's board, that he can fill by February 2027. The central bank's decision to hold its rate unchanged came on the heels of similar hold decisions last week by the US Federal Reserve and the European central bank. By Mariana Funchal Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Trump to face new limits after midterms blowout
Trump to face new limits after midterms blowout
Washington, 4 November (Argus) — Democratic congressional leaders are promising to use their victories in the midterm elections on Tuesday to seek new restraints against President Donald Trump, while leaving an opening for legislative deals that would lower consumer prices for energy and other goods. Democrats on Capitol Hill have felt largely powerless for nearly two years as Trump and his administration unilaterally cut staffing at federal agencies, launched military strikes and stymied the development of clean energy projects. Democratic leaders say those dynamics will change with their midterm wins, as they try to bring the kind of accountability they say has been nearly nonexistent under the Republican-led Congress. "Whenever Trump defies the will of the American people or the law, we will launch investigations, take him to court, and entangle him in legislative razor wire," Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York) said on Wednesday. Democrats are on track to hold at least a four-seat majority in the Senate and a 39-seat majority in the House, although their final tallies may be even larger as more races are called. The party was able to leverage voter anger over the Iran war and inflation to achieve wins in Republican-led states such as Texas, Iowa, South Carolina, Kansas and Ohio. Democrats say although they will look into concerns about corruption and executive overreach, they intend to use their new powers to focus on affordability. "The American people don't want us to get even," said House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York), who almost certainly will become the next House speaker. "They want us to get things done on their behalf because life is way too expensive." Newly elected Democrats say they want to look at areas of compromise that could give relief to consumers struggling with high fuel prices. US senator-elect James Talarico (D-Texas) said he supported Trump's proposal to suspend federal excise taxes on gasoline and diesel. "If we suspend the federal gas tax, we could drop the price of gas by 18¢/USG immediately," Talarico told Fox News on Wednesday. The most immediate outcome from the midterms could be felt when the Senate reconvenes next week to vote on whether to advance the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act (BAAJA), a bill that aims to speed permitting for oil and gas, renewables and electric transmission. The Democratic outperformance is likely to "embolden" those who believe the bill gives too many concessions to oil and gas, investment bank TD Cowen said in a note to clients that cut the odds of the bill passing to 25pc, down from 40pc. Political analysts shared that sentiment. "It's an uphill road at this point, given the fact that there's the possibility of just getting a better deal in January," law firm Bracewell attorney Joseph Brazauskas said on Wednesday. Even if BAAJA clears the Senate, it still must pass the House, where Republicans have a narrow majority. Far-right Republicans want to use the lame duck session to "lock in" conservative wins and stop "the Green New Scam", House Freedom Caucus chairman Andy Harris (R-Maryland) said. Meanwhile, US representative Jared Huffman (D-California), who is likely to lead the House Natural Resources Committee next year, said there should be a hearing before "jamming through a deeply flawed" permitting bill. Democrats will only have so much power to constrain Trump, whose aggressive claims of executive power have found a receptive audience in the US Supreme Court, where conservatives hold a 6-3 majority. Even though Democrats could rein in the administration using spending bills, they still need Republican support on those bills to prevent a filibuster in the Senate. Trump could also block any bills that he believes are too restrictive, which would create the risk of a government shutdown. "l'll get along probably with the Democrats, unless they want to be destructive, but I have the power of the veto if we don't like what they're doing," Trump told reporters on Wednesday. Democrats next year will gain broad powers to launch investigations into the administration, including the ability to subpoena federal agencies and require administration officials to testify. Democrats are likely to push for details on foreign investment deals that Trump has negotiated, along with agreements related to the sale of Venezuelan crude and leasing rights. Senators have sought answers on hundreds of millions of dollars in tax savings the administration has given to LNG companies. "Subpoenas," Senate Finance Committee ranking member Ron Wyden (D-Oregon) said in a social media post on Tuesday as the Democratic victory became clear. Republicans are blaming the crushing midterm losses partly on the war in Iran, which angered voters who trusted Trump's anti-war campaign promises and ended up paying more for gasoline, diesel and fertilizer. US vice president JD Vance, who is considering a presidential run in 2028, said Republicans lost because of the war. "If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next six years was worth it, then do so," Vance wrote on social media. Trump said that explanation for Republican losses was "largely true" because the war drove up gasoline prices, but he defended the decision to go to war. "If I had it to do again, I'd have to do it again because long-term it's the only answer," Trump said. "You can't let Iran have a nuclear weapon." By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Cop 30 fossil fuel roadmap backs existing momentum
Cop 30 fossil fuel roadmap backs existing momentum
Edinburgh, 4 November (Argus) — Brazil's international roadmap on transitioning away from fossil fuels sets the scene for productive informal talks on the topic at the UN Cop 31 climate conference in Antalya next week, after discussions among voluntary countries gathered pace this year. Brazil presented its global roadmap this week — a blueprint for countries to act at supply and demand levels to cut dependency on oil, gas and coal and reduce planet-warming emissions — having pledged to do so when it hosted Cop 30. Brazil hopes this will inspire more countries to publish roadmaps, after a year of discussions on the fossil fuel transition among so-called coalitions of the willing, boosted by the crisis in the Middle East. France, Germany and the Netherlands have published roadmaps and more could do so at Cop 31, according to Dutch climate minister Stientje van Veldhoven. Three of nearly 200 parties to the Paris agreement is small, but sends a signal on fossil fuel demand, observers said. Some said the roadmaps could have been more ambitious, however, considering the world is on course to exceed the accord's temperature goal . Fossil fuel emissions accounted for 74pc of carbon emissions in 2025, mostly from power generation, industry and transport, according to EU data. Cutting fossil fuel emissions is key to meet the 1.5°C temperature limit pursued by the Paris agreement and reinforced at Cop 28 in Dubai. For countries particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, keeping to the goal is an imperative, and Pacific island states have begun talks on a roadmap. Fossil fuel producer talks No roadmaps have been published by major fossil fuel producing countries, although some appear in the making. Brazil said it would release one this year, and Norway is due to publish its sustainable transition strategy in 2027, saying "the work must be viewed in the light of prospects for lower petroleum activity in the decades ahead". The UK government is discussing how to represent what it has in place and could constitute a roadmap, according to UK climate envoy Rachel Kyte. Producers are increasingly part of the discussion. The UK and Norway, along with Canada, Angola, Mexico, Brazil, Senegal and Australia, were among 60 countries gathered at the first conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels, in Santa Marta, Colombia, in May. These represented about 20pc of global oil production and a third of oil consumption, according to the organisers. The effects of the US-Iran war have increased the focus on domestic renewable energy in importing countries, and in producing countries whose revenue depend on energy commodities. The energy crisis resulting from the war could "act as an accelerator of the energy transition", TotalEnergies said this week. Some nations' economic dependency on fossil fuels needs to be recognised in transition discussions, Cop 30 chief executive Ana Toni said, echoing the views of many developing fossil fuel producers in Latin America and Africa, which have called on developed nations to lead the way. Mexico said this year that transitioning requires an orderly and gradual approach, because of the implications on country's economy and employment. The Cop 30 fossil fuel transition roadmap and discussions throughout this year have started to address this and the need for countries to work on different timelines. Countries can begin acting regardless of their starting point, but the transition requires careful co-ordination. Importer-producer The Cop 30 presidency said in its roadmap that fossil fuel production needs to decline alongside demand, highlighting the importance of co-operation between producing and importing countries in future planning. In July, the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (Boga), an international alliance launched at Cop 26 and spearheaded by Denmark and Costa Rica, convened a high-level dialogue on responses to the fossil fuel crisis. It included EU countries, fossil fuel producer Ghana and Sierra Leone where Shell has an exploration agreement for several offshore oil blocks. Discussions touched on how "producer-consumer co-ordination" could build resilience. The meeting followed Boga's closed-door major producer dialogue with the EU where producer-consumer co-ordination was also a topic. Boga also works through a $20mn fund with oil and gas producers Brazil, Colombia, Nigeria, Kazakhstan, Chad and Trinidad and Tobago on transition planning and economic diversification and has opened another call for interest with the NDC partnership aimed at fossil fuel producers. "Consumer-producer" discussions were also at the heart of a dialogue organised by the UK and Brazil after the Santa Marta conference. The event explored how to mobilise co-ordinated international support for developing fossil fuel-producing countries, building on the Cop 30 presidency roadmap work. Developing countries want to work on "the complicated elements of the transition" such as managing fossil fuel assets as demand declines, according to the UK's Kyte. By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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