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Viewpoint: Brazil ethanol imports may double in Dec-Mar
Viewpoint: Brazil ethanol imports may double in Dec-Mar
Sao Paulo, 22 December (Argus) — Brazil ethanol imports may accelerate in the next three months, reflecting favorable arbitrage for foreign product and a need to boost supply during a period of high prices and tight domestic inventories. Market participants estimate ethanol imports of 230mn-250mn liters (l) (12,000-13,100 b/d) in the four months through March 2026, the off-season for sugarcane in Brazil's top producing central-south region. That would mark the largest volume imported for the four-month period since the 2020-21 crop, when it totaled 274.7mn l, according to data from Brazilian trade ministry Mdic. Ethanol imports totaled almost 243.4mn l between April and November 2025, according to official data. Argentina and Paraguay are expected to be the main suppliers of the product in the coming months. Under the Mercosur agreement, imports from these countries are exempt from an 18pc import levy, which are applied on volumes from the US. The shipments would meet part of domestic demand, which is coming up against smaller inventory levels than in years past. On 30 November, available stocks of hydrous ethanol totaled 4.9bn l, according to data from the agriculture and livestock ministry Mapa. This is 26pc less than in the same period in 2024. Anhydrous ethanol stocks totaled 3.5bn l, 15pc lower than the previous year. Lower stocks are partly due to a sugarcane crop whose development and quality were negatively affected by drought and fires in 2024. The result was lower sugarcane crushing and ethanol production in 2025-26 than in the previous crop. The central-south region produced 29.5bn l of ethanol between the start of the crop in April and 1 December, 5pc lower than the same period in 2024, according to the latest data from the sugarcane and bioenergy industry association Unica. The current cycle had already begun with lower carryover stocks , thanks to strong ethanol consumption through 2024-25. Supply concerns grew with this year's 1 August increase in the percentage of anhydrous blended with gasoline at the retail stage, which grew to 30pc (E30) from 27pc (E27). Throughout the second half of 2025, producers signaled their reluctance to exercise flexibility clauses in anhydrous contracts — which usually allow for an increase of up to 30pc in the volume purchased during the crop-year. Additionally, weather conditions remain a source of concern heading into the new year. A rainy March and April next year could delay the start of the 2026-27 harvest, making supply even tighter. A calming supply mix adjustment A successful shift in the output mix towards ethanol this quarter —and towards anhydrous in particular in the last few weeks — have helped ease supply concerns. The current crop started with expectations that recent investments in crystallization capacity would lift the share of feedstock directed to sugar production to 52pc. But by mid-year sugar was proving less profitable than ethanol , making producers review their strategy and maximize alcohol production . The central-south mix stood at 64.48pc ethanol and 35.52pc sugar in the second half of November, according to Unica. This compares with 55.36pc ethanol and 44.64pc sugar in the same period in 2024. Anhydrous production was also boosted following the E30 announcement. Some corn ethanol mills shifted 100pc of their production to anhydrous ethanol. In the central-south, anhydrous ethanol production totaled 457mn l in the second half of November, up by 10pc from a year earlier, according to Unica. This relief caused the market to adjust its import estimates to more conservative figures. The outlook of approximately 500mn l of ethanol imports in 2025-26, considering the volume realized plus the estimate of 230mn-250mn l, is closer to the lower end of July's forecasts, when participants penciled in imports of 400mn-800mn l in the cycle . By Maria Lígia Barros Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
German fuel demand rises before 2026 price increase
German fuel demand rises before 2026 price increase
Hamburg, 22 December (Argus) — German consumers increased fuels orders in the last full working week of 2025 to fill their tanks ahead of a probable price increase at the start of the new year. Low prices also boosted heating oil demand. Fuel demand rose significantly in the week ending 21 December, after stockbuilding failed to materialise in the previous week. Diesel spot sales for truck loading submitted to Argus increased by almost 50pc on the week, and E5 gasoline sales by 35pc. Diesel sales on 17 December were the highest in four months, while gasoline sales were the highest since September 2023. Gasoline filling stations, freight forwarders and other large-scale consumers waited until the last minute to fill their tanks before higher costs from the CO2 tax and greenhouse gas (GHG) quota take effect in 2026. Sellers recently offered B7 diesel for loading in January with premiums of €10-13/100l, and gasoline prices rose by a similar amount. Gasoline filling stations built up stocks ahead of the holidays, because the few remaining working days until the end of the year restrict logistics. Low prices also drove heating oil demand, at least in the first half of the week. The national average heating oil price reached its lowest point for the year on 16 December. This motivated consumers to buy, although the premiums for the new year are much lower than for road fuels at around €3-4/100l because of the CO2 tax increase. But some can only be delivered in January because of logistical bottlenecks. Heating oil spot volumes in 2025 so far are around 10pc above the 2024 level, mainly because consumers stocked up when the front-month Ice gasoil futures contract reached its lowest level since the end of 2021 in early April. The heating oil price fell to its lowest level in more than three years. Prices were subdued by the prospect of a global economic slowdown as a result of the trade conflict between the US and China and the so-called reciprocal duties for some of the US' most important trading partners. Lower Ice gasoil futures also triggered additional purchases at the end of November. Diesel spot volumes in 2025 were around 5pc below the previous year, probably because of a weak manufacturing sector. The average production index in January-October was almost two percentage points below the same period in 2024 and about six points below 2023. The truck mileage index lagged behind previous years in most months, with a noticeable affect on industrial demand for diesel. By Gabriele Zindel and Johannes Guhlke Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: Biogas growth uneven, shipping drives 2026
Viewpoint: Biogas growth uneven, shipping drives 2026
London, 22 December (Argus) — Europe's biomethane market faces uneven growth in 2026, with numerous unsolved policy hurdles and as adoption of the EU's revised renewable energy directive (RED III) reshapes national compliance frameworks. Shipping demand will remain a key driver, particularly for certified subsidised product. RED III's overall 2030 target gives EU member states the option to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs) by 14.5pc, or reach a 29pc renewable energy share. RED II only required countries to reach a 14pc renewable energy share. Some states have already transposed RED III, including the Netherlands and Germany , and pivoted incentive schemes to reward fuels on a GHG reduction basis. This is setting up biomethane with low or negative carbon intensity (CI) as a fuel of choice for suppliers obligated to comply with the regulation in the Netherlands, where previously it lagged behind cheaper, energy-intense biofuels. Another EU regulation that favours biomethane use is FuelEU Maritime, which came into effect in January 2025 requiring shipowners to reduce fleet emissions by 2 pc/yr in 2025 and 2026. Over-compliance can be sold under pooling schemes — which have proven profitable for bio-LNG bunkering. The mandate became a major market price driver for renewable gas guarantees of origin (RGGOs) — certificates issued to companies producing gas made from non-fossil fuel sources — and this should continue into 2026. New schemes, either under RED III or domestic obligations, that will come into effect in 2026 will compete with maritime demand for supply. Most 2026 Dutch and Danish supply has already been sold to the maritime sector. Growing Netherlands As well as a pivot to GHG-based compliance with a new ERE ticket system under RED III, the Netherlands began work on a Green Gas Blending Obligation in November. While implementation before late 2027 seems unlikely, progress should boost RGGO forward pricing. Dutch biomethane liquidity could be bolstered if the government approves mass-balancing , a method to track and verify biomethane when it is injected into the gas grid system and becomes indistinguishable from conventional gas. A motion was proposed in parliament in November, but a recent government response indicates this is unlikely. Bio-LNG must be unsubsidised, certified and physically delivered to qualify for ERE tickets, otherwise it will be treated with a fossil gas CI of 94g CO2e/MJ when calculating a fuel supplier's overall mandate level. Steady Germany, France Germany will remove double-counting for waste-based biofuels under its GHG reduction quota (THG) in 2026, but biomethane should remain the cheapest compliance route for fuel suppliers, as rising mandates will support demand. Most German imports come from the UK or Denmark. The former may benefit from Danish prices inflated by maritime demand, despite questions about UK eligibility with German schemes. France's biogas production certificate (CPB) blending mandate starts in January, which should significantly boost domestic demand. But the country has delayed its RED III transposition , which includes a new GHG-based IRICC ticket system, to 2027. The current energy-based TIRUERT transport ticket system will remain in place for a year, limiting transport-sector uptake. It is unclear if IRICCs can be generated from biomethane in 2027, but 3pc renewable gas obligations for transport will start in 2028, increasing thereafter. Cross-border trade and bio-LNG bunkering should remain limited. French biomethane can only be exported as an ex-domain cancellation , the cancellation of RGGOs in one country's registry for use in a different country. This carries risk to buyers, as ownership is not necessarily transferred. Subsidised biomethane cannot be liquefied at French LNG terminals for use outside the country. French bio-LNG must be exported via mass-balancing to other terminals in the EU, for use under FuelEU Maritime. Uncertain UK The UK's access to EU markets hinges on access to the Union Database for gaseous Biofuels (UDB), now targeted for launch by end-summer 2026. Uncertainty about third-country treatment could restrict EU trade — a critical issue given the UK exported more than half its RGGOs in the first three quarters of 2025, mostly to Germany, Norway and Switzerland. The UK is consulting on replacing volume-based RTFC tickets with a GHG-based system, but any changes would not be enacted until 2027. Overall in Europe, biomethane remains well positioned in GHG-based systems, but policy implementation delays will probably slow overall market growth. The Netherlands, Denmark and Germany should remain anchors for European pricing, and Spain should consolidate its role as a maritime hub. But several countries risk lagging behind without RGGO registries, export hub access, policy incentives and subsidy reform. By Madeleine Jenkins Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Mexico central bank cuts target rate to 7pc
Mexico central bank cuts target rate to 7pc
Mexico City, 19 December (Argus) — Mexico's central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7pc, its lowest level since June 2022, maintaining a slower pace in the easing cycle on inflation concerns. The decision marked the eighth rate cut this year and the fourth quarter-point reduction following four consecutive half-point cuts. This year's cuts follow five quarter-point cuts in 2024 from a cyclical peak of 11.25pc in March. The board approved the cut in a 4-1 vote, with deputy governor Jonathan Heath dissenting in favor of holding the rate at 7.25pc. Heath has been the lone dissenter in the past five decisions, consistently urging greater caution. The central bank said the decision reflected "the behavior of the exchange rate, the weakness of economic activity and the possible impact of changes in global trade policies," repeating language used in its last four statements. Gabriela Siller, chief economist at Banco Base, pointed to a "significant change" in the bank's forward guidance, noting a shift toward a less dovish tone. The board said it "will consider when to make further adjustments" to the policy rate, replacing the "will consider cutting" language used in November. Mexican bank Banorte also said the central bank struck a less dovish tone, pointing to a change in its forward guidance. Annual inflation rose to 3.8pc in November from 3.57pc in October, according to statistics agency Inegi. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, accelerated to 4.43pc from 4.28pc. The central bank now sees headline inflation ending 2025 at 3.7pc, up from 3.5pc in its November forecast, while core inflation is projected at 4.3pc, revised from 4.1pc. It also raised its headline and core forecasts for the first two quarters of 2026, while maintaining that both will converge to its 3pc target by the third quarter. The bank said the revisions mainly reflect a "more gradual-than-expected" easing in services inflation, along with a smaller contribution from accelerating consumer goods prices. The board also addressed recent tax reforms, which it expects will have a temporary and not necessarily proportional impact on prices, adding it will update its forecasts as it conducts a comprehensive assessment of the revised tax code's effects. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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