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Crude tankers decline despite Yanbu demand
Crude tankers decline despite Yanbu demand
New York, 1 May (Argus) — A surge in crude shipments from the Red Sea port of Yanbu, bypassing the blockaded strait of Hormuz, has failed to stop a retreat in crude shipping rates, which are reeling from the loss of loadings out of the Mideast Gulf. Yanbu crude loadings rose to 4-4.2mn b/d in April, compared with 800,000 b/d prior to the start of the US-Israel war with Iran on 28 February, according to data from Vortexa and Kpler. Meanwhile, Mideast Gulf loadings fell to 1.8-1.9mn b/d in April, compared with the roughly 16mn b/d being loaded prior to the war when vessels freely transited the strait of Hormuz. Exporting from Yanbu, the terminus of the East-West pipeline across Saudi Arabia, is one of the few alternatives regional producers have of getting their crude to market after two months of stalled vessel traffic at the strait of Hormuz. In April, traders sent nearly all of the additional Yanbu shipments to Asian buyers via very large crude carriers (VLCCs), with China, India and South Korea topping that list. From a crude tanker demand-perspective, the increase in Yanbu loadings helps offset some of the drop in Mideast Gulf crude loadings, but the tanker market still faces a net loss in cargoes. This has caused the Yanbu-northeast Asia VLCC rate, which Argus launched on 4 March, to shrink to $4.79/bl, roughly a quarter of its 4 March level, tracking similar VLCC declines in the Atlantic basin in that time period. The high risk of transiting the strait of Hormuz in the face of the Mideast Gulf war has kept supply extremely tight for the Mideast Gulf-China VLCC route, holding the rate on the route slightly below its all-time high of $17.23/bl, reached on 8 April. New bookings on the route have been minimal since the war started. Looking ahead, these rate declines may extend. Shipyards are expected to deliver new tankers representing up to 6pc of the global tanker fleet this year. Adding this increased supply to a market potentially facing demand contraction means rates are likely to struggle to return near the all-time highs reached in early March. By Nicholas Watt Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US manufacturing grew in April amid war concerns
US manufacturing grew in April amid war concerns
Houston, 1 May (Argus) — US manufacturing activity grew in April for a fourth consecutive month, as order growth outpaced production and the Mideast Gulf war boosted prices. The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 52.7 in April, unchanged from March and growing for a fourth month following 10 months of contraction. The new orders index rose to 54.1 in April from 53.5 in March, while the production index eased to 53.4 in April from 55.1 the prior month, reflecting slowing growth. Readings above 50 signal growth while readings below that level signal contraction. The prices index surged to 84.6 in April, the highest reading since April 2022, from 78.3 the prior month and is up 25.6 percentage points in the last three months. The gains were driven by increases in steel and aluminum prices, tariffs, and "now increases in petroleum-based products as a result of Middle East conflict," ISM said. The new export orders index fell to 47.9 in April from 49.9 the prior month, showing deepening contraction. The imports index eased to 50.3 in April from 52.6, showing slowing growth. "Demand for manufactured goods is trending higher versus last year; however geopolitical uncertainty and rising oil and diesel prices continue to weigh on demand," a transportation equipment manufacturer wrote in a response to the ISM's monthly survey of purchasing managers and supply executives from 18 manufacturing industries. A machinery executive cited "general uncertainty" over the impact of the war but awareness that the impacts of fuel increases "are coming." Others cited the effects of "US tariffs." The employment index fell to 46.4 in April, showing deepening contraction, from 48.7 the prior month. "In this second month of the Iran war ..., 31 percent of the comments were positive and 69 percent negative," ISM said. "Among comments, the war was mentioned in 47 percent and tariffs in 18 percent." The supplier delivery index rose to 60.6 in April from 58.9, showing slower deliveries for a fifth month, while the inventory index rose to 49, showing slowing contraction, from 47.1 the prior month. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
European jet premiums slide as prompt supply fears ease
European jet premiums slide as prompt supply fears ease
London, 1 May (Argus) — European jet fuel premiums to Ice gasoil futures have fallen to their lowest since the early days of the US-Iran war as confidence builds that near-term supply is adequate. But the outlook for the summer peak remains uncertain. Argus assessed jet fuel delivered to northwest Europe at a $200/t premium to front-month Ice gasoil futures on 30 April, the lowest since 2 March — the first session after the war began on 28 February. Jet fuel traded at $67.80/bl above the North Sea Dated crude benchmark on 29 April, marking the narrowest crack spread in more than two weeks. Market participants said values held steady on 1 May. Premiums have eased steadily over the past week as fears of supply shortfalls in Europe have receded, at least in the short term. Several airlines and producers played down the risk of shortages. Ryanair and Air France-KLM executives dismissed concerns this week, while refiners including Spain's Repsol and Austria's OMV said they are meeting supply commitments. Some market participants now view supply as secure until at least the second half of May. Improved sentiment has been underpinned by rising imports from sources outside the Mideast Gulf. Europe sharply increased jet fuel inflows from the US and Nigeria in April, with arrivals from both countries hitting monthly record highs. Although these volumes are not large enough to fully replace supply lost as a result of the US-Iran war, their rapid arrival after Mideast Gulf cargoes dried up has helped stabilise prompt availability. European refiners have also responded by maximising jet fuel output and postponing maintenance to cash in on strong margins and safeguard supply. The UK has asked its refiners to prioritise jet fuel production, while Sweden and Germany said strong domestic refining capacity is supporting the market. At the same time, Europe has relied heavily on inventories to offset the loss of Middle East supply. Stocks are replacing more than half of the missing volumes, according to Argus Consulting. But this buffer is finite. Independent jet fuel inventories in the ARA hub have fallen to six-year lows of about 550,000t, while stock cover varies widely across European countries. The IEA expects Europe to hold an average of 23 days of jet fuel stocks by June — a level it classifies as a shortage. Market participants also point to higher Chinese jet fuel exports in May , which will support global balances even if most volumes do not flow directly to Europe. Beyond early summer, however, fundamentals become less clear. Near-term supply relief comes ahead of the seasonal peak in aviation demand, which the IEA does not believe current supply levels can meet, particularly given Europe's reliance on inventories. Some participants expect demand destruction later in the year if high prices persist. The jet fuel market remains structurally tight. Global balances are still undersupplied because the strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal commercial flows. Outright jet fuel prices in Europe are close to double pre-war levels, reflecting ongoing geopolitical risk and fragile supply. Most market participants do not expect the market to stabilise until Hormuz flows resume and inventories can be rebuilt. In the meantime, high prices are needed to keep arbitrage flows from the US and Nigeria viable, participants said. By Amaar Khan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Hunt, Crossover sign Orinoco exploration deals
Hunt, Crossover sign Orinoco exploration deals
Caracas, 1 May (Argus) — Two independent US oil and gas producers have agreed to work with Venezuela's state-owned PdV in the Orinoco heavy oil belt. Representatives for privately held Hunt Oil and Crossover Energy Holdings signed memorandums of understanding in Caracas on Thursday in a ceremony with acting Venezuelan president Delcy Rodriguez. Details of the projects were not released, but Rodriguez said they were in Monagas state and were rich in both oil and natural gas. Jarrod Agen, executive director of the White House's National Energy Dominance Council, said at the event the deal would include up to $2bn in investments. Agen arrived in Venezuela with a delegation on Thursday. US charge d'affaires for Venezuela John Barrett also attended the signing event. The agreements are the latest in a series of deals with energy companies including Eni, Repsol, Chevron and BP in recent days. The US has controlled the flow and funds of Venezuela's energy trade since it seized former leader Nicolas Maduro and his wife on 3 January and is now working closely with the remainder of his administration. By Carlos Camacho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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