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Australia coal, Fe prices to fall; LNG up: Treasury
Australia coal, Fe prices to fall; LNG up: Treasury
Sydney, 17 December (Argus) — Australian iron ore, coking coal, and thermal coal prices are expected to decline by the end of December 2026, while LNG prices may rise from current levels, according to Treasury forecasts released on 17 December. Australian commodity prices are expected to return to long-run fundamental levels, Treasury said in its Mid-Year Fiscal and Economic Outlook for the 2025-26 financial year ending 30 June. Thermal Coal Australia's thermal coal prices have been supported by ex-China demand since Treasury released its July 2025-June 2026 budget on 25 March, Treasury said. But it does not expect this trend to continue. Treasury forecasts Australian thermal coal spot prices will fall to $70/t on a fob basis by the end of December 2026, down from current levels. Argus ' Australian NAR 6,000 kcal/kg fob Newcastle price was last assessed at $108.46/t on 16 December, up from $95.62/t on 25 March. Australian thermal coal exports to China fell 11pc on the year in January-October ( see table ), while shipments to Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and Malaysia rose, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show. Steelmaking Inputs Chinese economic policy support has lifted iron ore and metallurgical coal prices since March, Treasury said. But it expects Australian iron ore and coking coal spot prices to fall to $60/t and $140/t fob, respectively, by the end of 2026. Argus ' metallurgical coal premium hard low-volatile fob Australia price was last assessed at $215.10/t on 16 December, while its iron ore fines 61pc Fe (ICX) fob Australia netback price was last assessed at $90.55/t. Treasury also expects mining investment to remain unchanged over the next two years, largely because of the iron ore and coking coal sectors. Iron ore producers may invest in projects to maintain production, but coking coal producers are expected to run down their capital stock, Treasury said. Producers are looking to sell or finance around six Queensland coking coal mines, a market participant told Argus on 2 December. Petroleum LNG prices have declined since March because of China's shift toward non-Australian gas, Treasury said. Australian LNG spot prices are expected to reach $10/mm Btu by the end of December 2026, according to Treasury forecasts. Argus ' Gladstone fob price — an LNG netback indicator — was last assessed at $9.01/mm Btu on 16 December, down from $12.90/mm Btu on 25 March. China plans to prioritise pipeline and domestic gas over LNG imports in the coming years, PetroChina International's global head of LNG Yaoyu Zhang said on 4 December. Treasury also expects global oil prices to hover around $66/bl over the next four years, down from its March estimate of $81/bl. Australia's government will raise less revenue from its petroleum resource rent tax than previously expected because of the downgrade, the agency added. The tax is forecast to generate A$1.5bn in 2025-26, down from the earlier estimate of A$1.95bn. By Avinash Govind Treasury Commodity Forecasts (Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook) $ Commodity Argus Price (most recent)* Forecasted Price* Change (%) Coking Coal 215.1/t 140/t -35.0 Thermal Coal 95.62/t 70/t -26.8 Iron Ore 90.55/t 60/t -33.7 LNG 9.01/mm Btu 10/mm Btu 11.0 * Argus' Australian NAR 6,000 kcal/kg fob Newcastle; metallurgical coal premium hard low-volatile fob Australia; Argus' Gladstone fob; Iron ore fines 61pc Fe (ICX) fob Australia netback * fob Australia basis, at end of December 2026 Argus, Commonwealth of Australia Australian thermal coal exports mn t Market Jan - Oct '25 Jan - Oct '24 YTD Change (%) China 53 60 -11 India 2.9 3.4 -16 Japan 59 59 0.5 South Korea 11 9.7 12 Vietnam 13 9.6 37 Malaysia 5.9 5.4 11 Australian Bureau of Statistics Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US to blockade Venezuela oil flows: Trump
US to blockade Venezuela oil flows: Trump
Washington, 16 December (Argus) — US president Donald Trump dramatically escalated the conflict with Venezuela Tuesday night by declaring a blockade of most Venezuelan seaborne oil shipments. Trump, in a social media post, also demanded — without providing any credible explanation — that Venezuela return "all of the Oil, Land, and other Assets that they previously stole from us." Venezuelan oil flows to Cuba already have stopped and cargoes to other destinations were grinding to a halt, following the 10 December seizure of a Cuba-bound Venezuelan oil tanker by the US Coast Guard. "I am ordering A TOTAL AND COMPLETE BLOCKADE OF ALL SANCTIONED OIL TANKERS going into, and out of, Venezuela," Trump said. The tanker seized by the US was previously sanctioned for alleged involvement in transporting Iranian oil. More than 30 tankers could be within the reach of US naval forces positioned near Venezuela if Washington decides to continue seizing ships on its sanctions list. It is not clear what Trump meant by claiming that Caracas "stole" US-owned oil, land or assets, especially his reference to "land". Venezuela during the rule of former president Hugo Chavez nationalized assets of US and other western companies. The government of President Nicolas Maduro also faces claims of expropriation of mining and other western assets, and it has defaulted on sovereign debt obligations. All in all, almost $60bn worth of claims have been advanced against Caracas and state-owned PdV in US courts and international tribunals. A US federal court ordered the sale of PdV-owned US refiner Citgo to partially satisfy those claims. Trump's post concluded a day that featured his senior national security advisers briefing US lawmakers on the US military operations near Venezuela, without mentioning a possible escalation that likely requires congressional approval. The US has stationed a large naval force in the waters near Venezuela since early September as part of an effort ostensibly aimed at stopping waterborne drug shipments. The US Navy has reported having destroyed 25 boats allegedly carrying drugs near the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia since early September, killing 98 crew members. The most recent strikes, destroying three boats, took place on Monday. US lawmakers briefed by defense secretary Pete Hegseth and secretary of state Marco Rubio earlier on Tuesday said they were left wondering about the ultimate objectives of the US military operation. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil steel output may fall in 2026: Aco Brasil
Brazil steel output may fall in 2026: Aco Brasil
Sao Paulo, 16 December (Argus) — Brazilian steel output may drop in 2026 as lower-priced imports keep pressure on the domestic market, industry chamber Aco Brasil said. The country's steel output will fall to 32.4mn metric tonnes(t) in 2026, down by 2.2pc from a year earlier, driven by a 10pc climb in imports to 6.6mn t in the period. These figures exclude the effects of anti-dumping duties expected to take effect in the first half of the year, Aco Brasil said. "Our mills are operating at a 66pc capacity rate because of predatory imports, but we should be at around 80–85pc output capacity", Aco's executive president Marco Polo de Mello Lopes said in a press conference on 16 December. Imports will also weigh on domestic sales, with shipments expected to decline to 20.8mn t next year, down by 1.7pc from 2025, the association said. Imports are expected to reach a record 6.6mn t, up by 3.9pc from the previous all-time high of 6.4mn t projected for 2025, Aco Brasil said. Apparent consumption, the sum of production and imports minus exports, will increase by 1pc on the year to 27mn t in 2026, mainly driven by rising import levels. Revised 2025 projections The chamber has cut its 2025 projection for import growth from 19pc to 7.5pc because domestic price declines are curbing a sharper rise in foreign metal. The revised outlook now sees rolled steel imports at 5.7mn t, up by 20pc instead of the previously estimated 32pc. Imports have already hit an all-time high of 6mn year-to-date November 2025, up by 7pc year on year. Total import volumes may increase to 6.4mn t by year-end, according to Aco Brasil. Despite reaching record levels, import inflows lost traction in the second half of the year. As a result, Aco Brasil's initial projection of 7mn t in imports for the year will likely fail to materialize. In addition to price declines, Brazil's quota policy helped reduce import volumes, sources told Argus . The regime imposes a 25pc tariff on volumes that exceed the quota threshold for 19 rolled steel products. Importers also became wary of anti-dumping duties set to take effect in a couple of months. Seaborne trade has become riskier, as duties of up to $600/t could apply upon discharge at Brazilian ports, market participants said. New anti-dumping duties could reverse import growth, with volumes likely to fall instead of rise if the measures take effect. Whether this will be enough to lift production levels remains uncertain. Aco Brasil has also revised its 2025 output outlook, now projecting a 2.2pc drop to 33.1mn t, compared with a previous estimate of a 0.8pc decline to 33.6mn t. Production cuts deepened despite imports falling short of expectations throughout the year, suggesting that factors beyond imports may be driving the reduction. By Isabel Filgueiras Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Venezuela crude flows slow, Cuba feels sting
Venezuela crude flows slow, Cuba feels sting
Caracas, 16 December (Argus) — Venezuelan oil flows to Cuba have stopped for now and cargoes to other destinations are grinding to a halt, sources tell Argus, as US pressure on Caracas continues to build. With the exception of crude cargoes chartered by Chevron and a few other foreign oil majors working with state oil firm PdV, very little crude tanker traffic is moving out of Venezuela's main ports, according to industry and government sources. The US seizure of a crude cargo earlier this month and US threats to strike targets in the country are leading some shippers to divert ships heading to pick up Venezuelan crude. Operational problems caused by a cyberattack on PdV systems over the weekend are also impeding cargo loadings. Since late September the US has stationed a large naval force in the waters near Venezuela as part of an effort ostensibly aimed at stopping waterborne drug shipments. Overall crude exports from Venezuela since the start of the operation are not significantly different from the same period a year ago — exports from the country averaged 785,000 b/d from 15 September-15 December, compared to 792,000 b/d during that same period in 2024, according to oil analytics firm Vortexa. But since the start of December the volumes have dropped more significantly, with only seven cargoes and average volumes of 258,000 b/d, versus 17 cargoes and 1.08mn b/d of flow in the first half of December 2024. Of those seven cargoes that have left Venezuela so far this month, four are on their way to the US, one is destined to Malaysia, another to China and another to Cuba, according to Vortexa, although the final destinations may change. Following the US tanker seizure, market participants said they have adopted a "wait-and-see" approach that may be contributing to an overall slowdown in charterers in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Rates for 2mn bl very large crude carriers (VLCCs) loading out of the US Gulf coast fell on Monday, though levels remain near three-year highs and firmly above the lows reached months prior during the summer months. Asian buyers of Venezuelan crude are unlikely to see a curtailment in flows immediately, according to market sources, since Venezuela exported a relatively steady volume of crude in early fall that has yet to be offloaded. Among the reasons for the overhang is that refiners in the Chinese refining hub of Shandong did not get their import quotas until late November. Cuba, which relies heavily on Venezuela for crude, has been the first to feel the pinch in constrained flows. Cuban premier Miguel Diaz-Canel said this week the disruption of crude supplies from Venezuela — including from the ship seized by the US earlier this month that appeared to be en route to Cuba — is creating a dire economic situation on the island. Dolores Dobarro, a former oil vice minister, told Argus that some China-bound tankers laden with Venezuelan oil previously made quick stops in Cuba to offload some crude volumes, but that traffic has largely stopped following the US seizure operation on 10 December. By Carlos Camacho, Joao Scheller and David Haydon Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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