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Brazil steel output may fall in 2026: Aco Brasil
Brazil steel output may fall in 2026: Aco Brasil
Sao Paulo, 16 December (Argus) — Brazilian steel output may drop in 2026 as lower-priced imports keep pressure on the domestic market, industry chamber Aco Brasil said. The country's steel output will fall to 32.4mn metric tonnes(t) in 2026, down by 2.2pc from a year earlier, driven by a 10pc climb in imports to 6.6mn t in the period. These figures exclude the effects of anti-dumping duties expected to take effect in the first half of the year, Aco Brasil said. "Our mills are operating at a 66pc capacity rate because of predatory imports, but we should be at around 80–85pc output capacity", Aco's executive president Marco Polo de Mello Lopes said in a press conference on 16 December. Imports will also weigh on domestic sales, with shipments expected to decline to 20.8mn t next year, down by 1.7pc from 2025, the association said. Imports are expected to reach a record 6.6mn t, up by 3.9pc from the previous all-time high of 6.4mn t projected for 2025, Aco Brasil said. Apparent consumption, the sum of production and imports minus exports, will increase by 1pc on the year to 27mn t in 2026, mainly driven by rising import levels. Revised 2025 projections The chamber has cut its 2025 projection for import growth from 19pc to 7.5pc because domestic price declines are curbing a sharper rise in foreign metal. The revised outlook now sees rolled steel imports at 5.7mn t, up by 20pc instead of the previously estimated 32pc. Imports have already hit an all-time high of 6mn year-to-date November 2025, up by 7pc year on year. Total import volumes may increase to 6.4mn t by year-end, according to Aco Brasil. Despite reaching record levels, import inflows lost traction in the second half of the year. As a result, Aco Brasil's initial projection of 7mn t in imports for the year will likely fail to materialize. In addition to price declines, Brazil's quota policy helped reduce import volumes, sources told Argus . The regime imposes a 25pc tariff on volumes that exceed the quota threshold for 19 rolled steel products. Importers also became wary of anti-dumping duties set to take effect in a couple of months. Seaborne trade has become riskier, as duties of up to $600/t could apply upon discharge at Brazilian ports, market participants said. New anti-dumping duties could reverse import growth, with volumes likely to fall instead of rise if the measures take effect. Whether this will be enough to lift production levels remains uncertain. Aco Brasil has also revised its 2025 output outlook, now projecting a 2.2pc drop to 33.1mn t, compared with a previous estimate of a 0.8pc decline to 33.6mn t. Production cuts deepened despite imports falling short of expectations throughout the year, suggesting that factors beyond imports may be driving the reduction. By Isabel Filgueiras Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Venezuela crude flows slow, Cuba feels sting
Venezuela crude flows slow, Cuba feels sting
Caracas, 16 December (Argus) — Venezuelan oil flows to Cuba have stopped for now and cargoes to other destinations are grinding to a halt, sources tell Argus, as US pressure on Caracas continues to build. With the exception of crude cargoes chartered by Chevron and a few other foreign oil majors working with state oil firm PdV, very little crude tanker traffic is moving out of Venezuela's main ports, according to industry and government sources. The US seizure of a crude cargo earlier this month and US threats to strike targets in the country are leading some shippers to divert ships heading to pick up Venezuelan crude. Operational problems caused by a cyberattack on PdV systems over the weekend are also impeding cargo loadings. Since late September the US has stationed a large naval force in the waters near Venezuela as part of an effort ostensibly aimed at stopping waterborne drug shipments. Overall crude exports from Venezuela since the start of the operation are not significantly different from the same period a year ago — exports from the country averaged 785,000 b/d from 15 September-15 December, compared to 792,000 b/d during that same period in 2024, according to oil analytics firm Vortexa. But since the start of December the volumes have dropped more significantly, with only seven cargoes and average volumes of 258,000 b/d, versus 17 cargoes and 1.08mn b/d of flow in the first half of December 2024. Of those seven cargoes that have left Venezuela so far this month, four are on their way to the US, one is destined to Malaysia, another to China and another to Cuba, according to Vortexa, although the final destinations may change. Following the US tanker seizure, market participants said they have adopted a "wait-and-see" approach that may be contributing to an overall slowdown in charterers in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Rates for 2mn bl very large crude carriers (VLCCs) loading out of the US Gulf coast fell on Monday, though levels remain near three-year highs and firmly above the lows reached months prior during the summer months. Asian buyers of Venezuelan crude are unlikely to see a curtailment in flows immediately, according to market sources, since Venezuela exported a relatively steady volume of crude in early fall that has yet to be offloaded. Among the reasons for the overhang is that refiners in the Chinese refining hub of Shandong did not get their import quotas until late November. Cuba, which relies heavily on Venezuela for crude, has been the first to feel the pinch in constrained flows. Cuban premier Miguel Diaz-Canel said this week the disruption of crude supplies from Venezuela — including from the ship seized by the US earlier this month that appeared to be en route to Cuba — is creating a dire economic situation on the island. Dolores Dobarro, a former oil vice minister, told Argus that some China-bound tankers laden with Venezuelan oil previously made quick stops in Cuba to offload some crude volumes, but that traffic has largely stopped following the US seizure operation on 10 December. By Carlos Camacho, Joao Scheller and David Haydon Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US House clears hurdle to pass permitting bill
US House clears hurdle to pass permitting bill
Washington, 16 December (Argus) — Republicans in the US House of Representatives have overcome an initial obstacle to passing a marquee permitting overhaul bill after committing to vote on key amendments that would strip out potential benefits for offshore wind. Republicans in the House voted 215-209 in a vote on Tuesday to approve a rule that will dictate the terms of debate for votes later this week on the SPEED Act, which has become the focus of bipartisan efforts to fast-track the permitting process for pipelines, electric transmission lines, railroads and other infrastructure. A group of far-right conservatives initially voted against the rule, but most reversed course during the vote in exchange for revisions that have yet to be made public. The Tuesday vote was one of the last remaining hurdles to House passage of the SPEED Act, which is expected to pick up some Democratic votes when it comes up for a final vote later this week. The House majority typically is responsible for putting up all the votes for a rule, meaning it would only take a few Republicans to block bill debate. Republicans were uncertain they would have enough votes for the rule, as far-right conservatives such as US representative Andy Harris (R-Maryland) and others were lobbying for changes. On Monday, US representative August Pfluger (R-Texas) urged attendees of a conference to put as "much effort as you possibly can" into persuading wavering Republicans to support the permitting bill. Pfluger is the chair of the Republican Study Commission, a caucus that represents a majority of House Republicans. "Go talk to them and let them know how important this is," Pfluger said during an event organized by the think tank the Conservative Coalition for Climate Solutions. Ahead of the vote, an industry coalition on Tuesday released a joint letter offering "strong support" for the bill. Among the signatories were the American Petroleum Institute, the US Chamber of Commerce, the Association of American Railroads and the US LNG Association. President Donald Trump has yet to take an explicit position on the SPEED Act, but administration officials are optimistic permitting legislation could be enacted. "I think we are at a time where the chance of a real permitting reform bill is higher maybe than it's ever been," US energy secretary Chris Wright said at the event on Monday. The SPEED Act would focus on the implementation of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), a decades-old law that requires federal agencies to prepare environmental reviews of infrastructure projects. Pipeline companies and renewable energy developers alike blame the law for costly delays, both because of the time it takes for agencies to issue reviews and then the risks that permits will be thrown out because of lawsuits. The bill would narrow the scope of environmental reviews, aligning with a unanimous US Supreme Court ruling this summer. But the bill's most significant changes would make permits more durable. Even if a court found a NEPA review was flawed, the bill would keep permits intact during further analysis. And in a last-minute change, the bill would offer more permit "certainty" by limiting the government's ability to rescind prior approvals. That could protect pipeline permits such as the now-canceled Keystone XL pipeline, while also stopping Trump from halting more offshore wind projects. But the permit certainty language drew concern from far-right conservatives who oppose offshore wind. House Republicans in response agreed to vote on an amendment sponsored by Harris and others that would remove the "permit certainty" changes. Two other amendment votes also backed by Harris would stop expedited permitting treatment in the SPEED Act for offshore wind or any project that Trump has sought to block. Passage of those amendments could cost some Democratic support for the bill. Even if the bill passes, it is expected to be subject to major changes in the US Senate to attract enough support from Democrats to prevent a filibuster. Senate Democrats are hoping to insert language that would prevent what they describe as a "solar ban" being enforced by the Trump administration. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EU-Kommission möchte Verbrenner-Aus abschwächen
EU-Kommission möchte Verbrenner-Aus abschwächen
Hamburg, 16 December (Argus) — Die Europäische Kommission hat einen neuen Vorschlag für eine Reduzierung der Flottenemissionen von Pkw um 90 % bis 2035 vorgelegt. Damit ersetzt sie das zuvor vereinbarte Ziel von 100 %, das faktisch das Aus für Fahrzeuge mit Verbrennungsmotor bedeutet hätte. Der Plan würde erlauben, dass einige Fahrzeuge mit Verbrennungsmotor auch nach 2035 weiter genutzt werden dürfen — neben Plug-in-Hybriden, Reichweitenverlängerern und Mild-Hybriden sowie Elektro- und Wasserstoffautos. Die verbleibenden 10 % der Emissionen müssten laut Kommission durch den Einsatz von CO2-armen Stahl, eFuels oder Biokraftstoffen ausgeglichen werden. Die Vorschläge müssen sowohl vom Europäischen Parlament als auch von den EU-Mitgliedstaaten mehrheitlich angenommen werden. Automobilhersteller könnten dann zwischen 2030 und 2032 Emissionsgutschriften "ansparen und ausleihen", um das bestehende Ziel einer 55 %igen Reduzierung gegenüber 2021 zu erreichen. Nach den neuen Vorschlägen müssten Hersteller, die diese Möglichkeiten nutzen, nur eine durchschnittliche Reduzierung von 40 % erreichen — statt der bisher geplanten 50 %. Die Kommission erklärte, dass Gutschriften für Treibhausgaseinsparungen durch eFuels und Biokraftstoffe bis zu 3 % der Ziele für 2035 ausgleichen können, während Gutschriften für CO2-armen Stahl weitere 7 % kompensieren dürfen. Verkehrskommissar Apostolos Tzitzikostas sagte, das Gutschriftensystem werde die Nutzung nachhaltiger Kraftstoffe fördern: "Dies ist ein klares Signal, dass auch andere Technologien als batterieelektrische Fahrzeuge (BEV) nach 2035 auf den Markt gebracht werden können." Erweiterte Kriterien für CO2-Neutralität würden es ermöglichen, dass nachhaltige Biokraftstoffe zur Erreichung der derzeit ab 2035 geforderten 0 g/km beitragen. Der europäische Interessenverband für erneuerbares Ethanol ePure erklärte, dass die Emissionen von Ethanol im Jahr 2024 um 79 % niedriger lagen als bei fossilen Brennstoffen – wie bereits in den Vorjahren. Der Europäische Biodieselverband setzt Einsparungen von 77 bis 81 % für Biodiesel an, basierend auf dem offiziellen Vergleichswert für fossile Brennstoffe von 94 g CO2e/MJ. Der deutsche Europaabgeordnete Peter Liese kritisierte das ursprüngliche Verbot von Verbrennungsmotoren, sagte jedoch, die Probleme der Industrie seien auf Marktveränderungen zurückzuführen, nicht auf Brüssel. "Die Industrie muss aufhören, Brüssel für ihre eigenen Fehler und für Marktentwicklungen, etwa in China, verantwortlich zu machen", sagte er — und fügte hinzu, dass er sich für die Anerkennung von grünem Stahl vor 2035 einsetzen werde. Von Dafydd ab Iago und Johannes Guhlke Senden Sie Kommentare und fordern Sie weitere Informationen an feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . Alle Rechte vorbehalten.
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