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Latest news
23/10/24

Brazil's drought: River levels rise after declines

Brazil's drought: River levels rise after declines

Sao Paulo, 23 October (Argus) — Brazilian grain and fertilizer shipments remain at risk from low river levels along key waterways, as the worst drought in Brazil's history continues to hamper inland navigation. But rivers have recovered this week, because of increased rainfall in the country, with their levels rising again after almost a month of extended declines. Madeira waterway The Madeira waterway links Rondonia state's capital Porto Velho to Itacoatiara port in Amazonas state, and is the second largest in the northern region. Itacoatiara is expected to receive around 70,634 metric tonnes (t) of fertilizers in October, according to line-up data from shipping agency Unimar. The Madeira river's depth at Porto Velho increased to 91cm on 23 October, from 46cm on 18 October, according to monitoring data from Brazil's geological survey SGB. But navigation remains suspended at the port after the state's ports and waterways authority SOPH halted operations on 23 September in response to the Madeira registering its lowest level since monitoring began in 1967. Amazon waterway The Amazon River is the main waterway in northern Brazil, handling around 65pc of the region's cargo, according to national transportation and infrastructure department DNIT. It links Amazonas state capital Manaus to Para state capital Belem. The Negro river's depth was at 12.56m at the SGB monitoring point in Manaus on 23 October, up from 12.46m on 18 October. This still exceeds the previous historic low of 12.7m over the past 121 years of monitoring. Tapajos waterway Tapajos is an important waterway for moving product from the northern part of Mato Grosso state to Santarem port in Para state. Santarem is expected to receive 130,234t of fertilizers in October, according to line-up data from Unimar. The Tapajos-Teles Pires waterway is also facing a dire situation. National water and sanitation agency ANA declared a water shortage on the Tapajos river on 23 September. Drier than usual weather has reduced river levels — especially between Itaituba and Santarem cities, in Para state — to below the historic minimum. The depth of the Tapajos at the Itaituba monitoring point, where the transfer point for the Miritituba waterway is located, was 1.03m on 23 October, up from 92cm on 18 October but still below the previous record low of 1.32m, according to SGB data. At the Santarem monitoring point, the Tapajos was at 27cm, a level considered to be dry. The level was 28cm on 18 October. The historic minimum at the location is -55cm below the port's reference point. A level below zero does not mean the river is dry, but indicates extremely low levels. Tocantins-Araguaia waterway The Tocantins-Araguaia waterway encompasses the Araguaia and Tocantins rivers. It runs from Barra do Garcas city, in Mato Grosso, into the Araguaia river, or from Peixes city, in Tocantins state, into the Tocantins river to the port of Vila do Conde, in Para state. Soybeans, corn, fertilizers, fuels, mineral oils and derivative products are transported along the northern waterways. Vila do Conde is expected to receive 245,500t of fertilizers in October, according to Unimar. The SGB has two monitoring points on the Araguaia river. In Nova Crixas city, in Goias state, the river was at 3.11m on 23 October, up from 2.85m on 18 October, surpassing the previous historic minimum of 3.10m. In Sao Felix do Araguaia city, in Mato Grosso state, the Araguaia was at 2.71m, up from 2.56m on 18 October, recovering from extreme drought-like levels and moving away from the historic low of 2.51m. By João Petrini Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Latest news

Global LNG fleet to be well supplied in 2025-27


23/10/24
Latest news
23/10/24

Global LNG fleet to be well supplied in 2025-27

London, 23 October (Argus) — The global LNG fleet looks likely to be well supplied in 2025-27, as the addition of new LNG carriers is expected to outpace loading demand from new liquefaction capacity. Some 251 newbuild carriers are due to be delivered in 2025-27, according to data from the International Maritime Organisation (IMO). But loading demand from 124mn t/yr of new liquefaction capacity over the same period may only require 171 additional carriers ( see graphs and projects table ). This scenario assumes 160,000m³ loadings and a 17 knot sailing speed ( see scenario table ) . This scenario does not include loading demand from Nigeria LNG's 8mn t/yr seventh train at the 22mn t/yr Bonny terminal, as feedgas at present is lower than loading demand from the terminal's present liquefaction capacity, or loading demand or vessel additions linked to Russia's 19.8mn t/yr Arctic LNG 2 project, which has been placed under US sanctions. This scenario also assumes no Suez or Panama canal voyages. Should deliveries from the US Gulf to northeast Asia via the Cape of Good Hope rise to 50pc of loadings from the new liquefaction capacity instead of the assumed 33pc, then loading demand could rise by a further 20 carriers. And if each carrier had an average of five days of additional idle time between round trips, then loading demand could rise by a further 23 carriers. If both of the above scenarios turned out to be the case, and all newbuild carriers were delivered on time, then newbuild additions would still be more than sufficient to cover loading demand from new liquefaction capacity. And in the past few years, new LNG terminals have faced greater delays than new LNG carrier deliveries, suggesting scope for an even better supplied fleet in the coming years should this trend continue. The projections follow a well-supplied past year for the global LNG fleet, with 53 carriers delivered over the past 12 months, compared with new liquefaction capacity over the same period requiring a loading demand of around 6-7 LNG carriers. Charter rates have fallen to record lows this month, in large part because of newbuild additions outpacing loading demand from new facilities. Running out of steam The retiring of older steam turbine LNG carriers could limit growth in the global fleet, especially if owners are unable to secure ample employment to cover costs in a market with greater two-stroke and tri-fuel diesel-electric (TFDE) carrier availability. Some 86 carriers that are at least 20 years old are in operation, according to shipping data from Equasis. Scrappage of older carriers has been in the single digits in recent years, but could rise in the coming years, market participants have said. Many older carriers have been under long-term charters that are nearing expiry, and could be up for retirement upon the end of the charters. And carriers typically have maintenance around every five years that requires drydocking, which can be costly for shipowners against a prospect of potentially lower charter returns. An increased number of emissions-based shipping policies from the IMO and the EU, such as the FuelEU regulations starting in 2025, will add to the need for more modern and efficient LNG carriers, further weighing on demand for older steam turbine carriers. But the prospect of a tighter freight market after 2027, as more liquefaction capacity is due to come on line against an expected relative slowdown in carrier deliveries, could push some owners to keep hold of older carriers in the expectation of future employment, even if they are unable to fix their carriers in the short term. By Martin Senior 2025-27 liquefaction capacity additions mn t/yr Project Capactiy First exports Loading demand* Plaquemines LNG 20.0 Dec-2024 33.8 Corpus Christi stage 3 11.4 Jan-2025 19.4 Tortue 2.3 Feb-2025 1.1 LNG Canada 14.0 Apr-2025 13.3 Golden Pass LNG 18.1 Dec-2025 30.6 Congo LNG (2nd Phase) 2.4 Dec-2025 3.5 Qatar NFE expansion 32.0 Feb-2026 34.1 Energia Costa Azul 3.2 Mar-2026 3.8 Atlamira onshore 1.4 Dec-2026 2.4 Hilli FLNG 2.4 Feb-2027 4.6 PFLNG3 2.0 Jun-2027 0.8 Port Arthur T1 6.8 Jun-2027 11.4 Rio Grande T1 5.8 Sep-2027 9.9 Woodfibre LNG 2.1 Sep-2027 1.8 Total 124.0 170.5 — Argus * Number of vessels needed to serve loading demand from the terminal Delivery scenario assumptions pc deliveries NE Asia NW India NW Europe US Gulf 33 0 67 Pacific Canada 100 0 0 Pacific Mexico 100 0 0 Qatar 60 20 20 Congo 50 0 50 Senegal/Mauritania 0 0 100 Argentina 50 0 50 Malaysia 100 0 0 — Argus *all inter-basin voyages via Cape of Good Hope LNG carriers on order Loading demand from new capacity vs newbuild additions Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Range sees 6pc gain in realized 3Q NGL pricing


23/10/24
Latest news
23/10/24

Range sees 6pc gain in realized 3Q NGL pricing

Houston, 23 October (Argus) — Marcellus gas producer Range Resources received a 6pc higher premium versus Mont Belvieu, Texas, on its natural gas liquids (NGL) production in the third quarter owing to its access to markets in Europe and Asia. The Fort Worth, Texas, based producer received on average $25.96/bl for its NGLs, excluding derivatives, up 6pc versus last year. That exceeded average NGL prices at Mont Belvieu, Texas, by $4.10/bl. "Our ability to market ethane propane and butane into the international markets drove the highest NGL premium in company history, at over $4/bl over the Mont Belvieu index," said chief executive Dennis Degner. Range reported its natural gas liquids (NGL) production rose 5pc year over year to 10.2mn bl, or 111,465 b/d, in the third quarter as its gas production rose by 4pc to 1.5 bcf/d. Range updated its full-year guidance on its NGL pricing to Mont Belvieu plus $2.10-$2.35/bl, up from the 75¢/bl to $1.50/bl estimated in the second quarter, owing to gains in propane and butane prices at Mont Belvieu, Texas and higher spot premiums for exported cargoes out of the US. Range's average NGL estimates assumes 53pc of its production is ethane, 27pc propane, and 8pc normal butane. Mont Belvieu, Texas, LST propane averaged 72.9¢/USG in the third quarter, higher than the average of 68.9¢/USG in the third quarter of 2023. Mont Belvieu butane prices averaged 97.25¢/USG in the third quarter, up versus 83.47¢/USG last year. Range credited its term commitments on Energy Transfer's Mariner East system, which pipes NGLs from Range and other Marcellus producers to its export facility at Marcus Hook, Pennsylvania, with its higher realized prices on NGLs, particularly propane and butane, given higher netbacks from Europe and Asia. "International demand and pricing for NGLs remained robust in the third quarter, leading to near maximum US export capacity utilization," Degner said. "Improving Panama Canal throughput access, and a growing global fleet of LPG ships improved waterborne freight rates, and these factors combined to drive export price premiums to new levels relative to the Mont Belvieu index, and Range's portfolio of transportation and sales contracts provided reliable access to these premium markets." Argus-assessed prices for spot propane cargoes on a fob basis rose above Mont Belvieu +30¢/USG in mid-September, a multi-year high. Degner noted higher premiums on spot cargoes are expected to remain until US Gulf coast terminals expand capacity there in late 2025. By Amy Strahan Netback to Northwest Europe vs Mont Belvieu $/t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Latest news

Feyzin refinery issue impacts bitumen supply


23/10/24
Latest news
23/10/24

Feyzin refinery issue impacts bitumen supply

Total Energies' Feyzin refinery issue impacts bitumen supply London, 23 October (Argus) — Bitumen production at the 109,300 b/d Feyzin refinery near Lyon, France has been hit following an issue with its sulphur recovery unit. The problem lies in a sulphur recovery unit, with bitumen production limited for the time being while the issue is resolved, according to sources. One market participants told Argus they had seen no bitumen production or supply available from Feyzin for the past week as a result of the issue. Feyzin previously had a reformer unit out due to a fire at the refinery in late August. By Fenella Rhodes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Latest news

UK bitumen demand outlook downbeat ahead of budget


23/10/24
Latest news
23/10/24

UK bitumen demand outlook downbeat ahead of budget

London, 23 October (Argus) — The outlook for UK road construction and bitumen demand is downbeat, with no clear prospects of a recovery from years of weakening consumption ahead of the government's budget announcement on 30 October. Construction sector buyers and refinery suppliers at the recent Highways UK conference said road and highway spending, and resulting bitumen demand, is likely to remain slow, with the government unlikely to commit larger sums as it looks to tackle a £22bn ($28.6bn) "black hole" in government finances it says was left behind by the previous administration. A European construction firm with a UK project portfolio said a number of major highway projects it had expected to begin in 2025 will probably be postponed to 2026, as a start next year would have required funding to be allocated to them well before now. A firm with extensive UK project work said its activity and volumes had dropped this year but that it was hoping for no further falls in 2025. Some of the funds due to have been switched from the UK's ambitious high-speed rail (HS2) programme into road building could end up plugging the financial gap. The previous goverment in November last year pledged £8.3bn from a massively curtailed HS2 would be spent on resurfacing more than 5,000 miles (8,000km) of roads over an 11-year period. Some market participants pointed to the government's commitment to a major housebuilding programme as something that could, if public and private funds are forthcoming, generate a significant boost to bitumen demand for associated paving and roofing work. Fixing potholes Additional demand could be generated from pothole repair work, after the most recent annual Local Authority Road Maintenance (Alarm) survey showed a further deterioration in road surfaces because of real-term cuts in local authority maintenance budgets. Transport secretary Louise Haigh pledged in October to fix a "pothole plague" as part of a government plan to repair up to 1mn more a year. An October 2021 spending review by the previous government had pledged more than £2.7bn of local highway maintenance funding over the three tax years from 2022 to 2025 to local authorities outside London and the eight largest city regions. The funds, including monies to fix potholes, have failed to arrest a decline on UK roads. Motorist body AA said that up to September this year pothole related breakdown call-outs have increased by 2pc compared with the same period of 2023. The other leading UK body representing road users, RAC, said its pothole-related breakdown numbers went up by 10pc in the 12 months to 31 March. Government data show UK bitumen consumption slipped to 1.54mn t in 2023, the lowest since 2016 . Consumption was 1.89mn t in 2021 and 1.56mn t in 2022. In the first seven months of this year consumption was 835,000t, 9pc down from 917,000t in the same period of 2023. By Fenella Rhodes and Keyvan Hedvat Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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