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US Jan factory activity growth 1st in a year
US Jan factory activity growth 1st in a year
Houston, 2 February (Argus) — Economic activity in the US manufacturing sector expanded in January for the first time in a year, as new orders and production surged following 26 months of contraction for the factory segment. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 52.6 in January, up from 47.9 in December, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Readings above 50 signal growth while readings below that level signify contraction. The January reading was the highest since February 2022, and the first expansion reading since January 2025. ISM's new manufacturing orders index rose to 57.1 in January from 47.4 in December, while the production index rose to 55.9 from 50.7. New export orders rose to 50.2 from 46.8 in December. Imports rose to 50 from 44.6. President Donald Trump's heavy use of tariffs in the past year to wrest trade and other concessions from trading partners, allies and adversaries alike, has skewed trade flows, corporate planning and investment decisions, especially among manufacturers. "Confused and uninformed tariff policies continue to plague small companies, making long-term planning pointless," a fabricated metal products executive said in comments in the survey. "Companies are not making capital commitments beyond 30 days." While the January results show signs of improvement, underlying conditions continue to be troubling, according to other survey respondents. "Business conditions remain soft as we continue to miss sales, orders and profits as result of increased costs from tariffs, continued fallout from the government shutdown, and increased global uncertainty," a miscellaneous manufacturing executive said. The employment index rose to 48.1 in January, signaling a slowing pace of contraction, from 44.8 in December. The price index edged higher to 59 from 58.5. The inventories index rose to 47.6 in January from 45.7, signaling diminishing pace of contraction. Order backlogs rose to 51.6 from 45.8. Services, the largest part of the economy, expanded in December, marking a tenth month of expansion, according to ISM's December survey. ISM will report the services PMI in two days By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Qatar sees LNG demand accelerating on AI, Europe pivot
Qatar sees LNG demand accelerating on AI, Europe pivot
Doha, 2 February (Argus) — QatarEnergy expects global LNG demand to rise faster and last longer than previously anticipated, driven by artificial intelligence (AI), data centres and Europe's structural pivot away from Russian supply, Qatar's energy minister and QatarEnergy's chief executive, Saad Sherida al-Kaabi, said. Speaking at the LNG2026 conference in Doha, Al-Kaabi said QatarEnergy has expanded aggressively in LNG on the conviction that gas demand will not only endure but accelerate, with expectations revised higher in recent years as power demand from AI and digital infrastructure emerges. This follows other LNG sellers pivoting their growth market focus over the past year away from southeast Asian demand and coal to gas switching and towards power-demand driven by AI. "The expectation of demand going forward has increased," al-Kaabi said. "Not only because of economic growth, but now with AI and data centre requirements, which are sustained, baseload power requirements. That has stepped up the need for gas much more than we thought in the past." QatarEnergy is positioning itself to meet that demand through scale, shipping flexibility and trading optionality, as Europe cements its role as a long-term LNG market following the loss of Russian pipeline gas. QatarEnergy is expanding its LNG capacity from 77mn t/yr to 126mn t/yr by 2027 and is developing a global LNG portfolio that includes about 18mn t/yr at the US' Golden Pass LNG export terminal . QatarEnergy also expects to operate a fleet of about 200 LNG vessels by 2035, allowing it to redirect cargoes across regions and arbitrage between markets, al-Kaabi said. "That gives us flexibility, durability and longevity of supply for our customers around the world," he added. Europe as a target market Europe's emergence as a structural LNG buyer is reshaping long-term market balances, with QatarEnergy increasingly targeting the region alongside Asian demand growth. EU ministers on 26 January formally adopted a regulation to phase out imports of Russian pipeline gas and LNG. Al-Kaabi said QatarEnergy always expected a period of market looseness in the second half of the 2020s, but warned that rising power demand could tighten balances sooner than many forecasts suggest. "We always thought there would be some oversupply between 2025 and 2030, and a shortage beyond that," he said. "But with what we are seeing in Europe, AI, data centres and demand in Asia, that oversupply could turn into a shortage by 2030." He also pointed to China and India as core demand anchors, with India looking to raise the gas share of its energy mix from about 6–7pc towards 15pc, alongside rising demand across southeast Asia and Japan, where data centres are becoming a major driver of baseload power needs. Energy mix Al-Kaabi also pushed back against earlier calls to phase out hydrocarbons, saying recent years have exposed a gap between policy rhetoric and physical energy realities. "A few years ago, some organisations were talking about a ‘cancel culture' for oil and saying demand would disappear by 2030," he said. "Those voices have disappeared. You need oil, you need gas and you need electricity for a very long time." Al-Kaabi added that even they, in Qatar, are looking for additional oil locally or through exploration licences abroad. "Oil is going to be needed for a very, very long time," he said. Al-Kaabi said that electrification alone cannot meet global energy needs, noting that petrochemicals, transport fuels and aviation will continue to rely on liquids for decades. "Gasoline, coal and jet fuel will not disappear any time soon," he said. On climate policy, al-Kaabi said engagement with European regulators has become more pragmatic, particularly around corporate sustainability and due-diligence rules, but warned against policies detached from commercial and technical realities. "If you put in place legislation that is theoretical and not workable, it damages the final consumer," he said. "If you penalise us, it passes through to the European customer." QatarEnergy remains committed to lowering emissions through carbon capture, efficiency gains and technology, he said, but argued that energy security, affordability and decarbonisation must advance together. QatarEnergy is expanding its carbon capture and sequestration capacity, targeting CO2 capture of 9mn t/yr by 2030 and 11mn–13mn t/yr by 2035, as part of efforts to lower the emissions intensity of its LNG supply. But Al-Kaabi warned that large-scale deployment of low-carbon fuels and carbon abatement technologies remains constrained by high costs. "Blue and green products need a premium, and today nobody is willing to pay for it," he said. "We need energy addition, not slogans." By Bachar Halabi and Irfan Jaafar Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US, Iran signal readiness to talk
US, Iran signal readiness to talk
Washington, 2 February (Argus) — US president Donald Trump and senior Iranian officials are signaling that Washington and Tehran may restart diplomatic talks, despite US threats of a new military strike on Iran. Trump, who had ordered a US naval build up in the Middle East, said on 31 January that Iran was "seriously talking to us." Iran's supreme national security council secretary Ari Larijani on the same day noted via a social media post that "arrangements for negotiations are progressing". March Nymex WTI was at around $62/bl as of 11:15am ET Monday, down by 5pc from the 30 January settle. Whether or not US-Iran talks will resume or succeed in averting another round of US strikes against Iran remains to be seen. Diplomats from the two countries last engaged in talks in April-June 2025, before Trump ordered a bombing raid against nuclear facilities in Iran. Trump, speaking with reporters on Sunday, downplayed a warning from Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei about the US strikes triggering a regional war. "We have the biggest, most powerful ships in the world over there," Trump said. "And hopefully we'll make a deal. If we don't make a deal, then we'll find out whether or not [Khamenei] was right." Trump's administration has offered several justifications for a possible military strike against Iran. Iran's nuclear program is the subject of talks, even though Trump says the US military strikes obliterated it last year. Trump has also suggested that the purpose of a US raid is to support nationwide protests in Iran. US secretary of state Marco Rubio offered another justification for the US naval build up last week, saying it was needed to "defend against what could be an Iranian threat against our personnel" in the Middle East. The key, and unknown, factor is how Tehran would react to a US attack. Tehran did not retaliate in force after a limited US strike in June. But it has the capacity to hit back against tankers and vital oil infrastructure in the Mideast Gulf, as it did in 2019. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Slow UN carbon market advance on removals
Slow UN carbon market advance on removals
Berlin, 2 February (Argus) — The emerging UN carbon market under Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement, Pacm, saw slow progress last week on draft rules for carbon removals accounting, as experts tasked with working on new Pacm methodologies convened at the UN climate arm's headquarters in Bonn, Germany. The panel made some decisions on the so-called reversal assessment tool, which aims to determine the number of Pacm credits to contribute to the market's reversal risk buffer account, acting as a form of insurance for removal projects. The tool will help calculate individual risk factors, combined risks and the reduction in reversal risk factors, based on any remediation measures implemented by activity proponents. A buffer factor, expressed as a percentage of credited carbon, would then be calculated, depending on the choices made by project proponents. The higher the percentage, the more credits must be set aside for an activity. The panel will also determine specific activity risks, with an initial focus on forest carbon storage, geological carbon storage and biochar. These are not only the most prevalent removal activities in the carbon market, but also dominate those transitioning from Pacm's precursor, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The panel and the Article 6.4 supervisory body were tasked by countries at the UN Cop 30 climate summit in Brazil in November with prioritising CDM transitions . The panel will consider other types of removal activities at a later stage. More progress was made last week on the draft rules for renewable electricity generation, on which the panel released a draft methodology for supervisory body approval. It would become the second approved Pacm methodology, if adopted. The first methodology for generating carbon credits, on flaring or use of landfill gas, is regarded as substantially stricter than its CDM predecessor. Pacm's downward adjustment factor ensures that baseline emissions decline more significantly over time than under the CDM. South Korea-based carbon project developer Ecoeye said under the Pacm landfill gas methodology, flaring-only projects carried out in host countries outside least developed countries are likely to experience a 52–76pc reduction in credited emission reductions, compared with CDM-based estimates, over a five-year period, while for electricity generation and heat production it projects a 34–42pc reduction. The potential third Pacm methodology to be adopted, on clean cooking, considers new submissions while carrying over some elements from an existing CDM methodology. Another methodology under consideration, on nitrous oxide abatement from nitric acid production, might also see a draft proposal at the next expert panel meeting in March. Six new Pacm methodologies in total are under consideration. The latest entry is on fertiliser production with renewables-based ammonia, for which a call for public input closed on 27 January. The panel is considering merging this methodology — the development of which was financed by the Germany-supported International Hydrogen Ramp-Up Programme — with another for ammonia production through electrolysis. By Chloe Jardine Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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