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16/03/26

European ethanol prices up on indirect war effects

European ethanol prices up on indirect war effects

London, 16 March (Argus) — European ethanol prices have risen by more than 10pc since the start of the US-Israel war with Iran, with a number of indirect effects pushing values to the highest in four months. Last week, prices for 75pc GHG savings crop-based ethanol rose to €754/m³, up by €72/m³ from 27 February, the day before the US and Israel attacked Iran, and the highest since 11 November. While the conflict has not directly affected ethanol supply, there has been consequential volatility and disruption through higher freight rates, limited arbitrage opportunities and increased production costs. The war looks likely to tighten supply in what was, already, a structurally short European ethanol market. Arbitrage economics for suppliers in North and South America to export to Europe have closed because of higher specialised freight rates and domestic prices. The EU is heavily reliant on ethanol flows from the Americas, with the bloc's largest suppliers of undenatured ethanol in the fourth quarter 2025 being Peru with 43,101t, Brazil with 26,747t, Canada with 21,819t, and the US with 18,822t. The Americas represented 71pc, or 133,275t, of all EU imports that quarter. Specialised freight has become more expensive since the war began beginning and it could be difficult to book vessels. The war has almost entirely halted ships from passing through the strait of Hormuz, which has mostly stopped shipments of diesel from the Mideast Gulf to Europe and prompted European buyers to turn to the US Gulf Coast for cargoes. Revenues from these have been high enough to keep most IMO2/3 'swing tonnage' tankers away from ethanol, biofuels, and petrochemicals cargoes, supporting specialised tanker rates. Tanker availability in the Americas was already very tight, and strong revenues in the regional products freight market and high numbers of Contracts of Affreightment have left even fewer available specialised tankers for biofuels. Charterers have faced high competition in the spot market which has sent specialised tanker rates surging. The higher price of bunker fuel has also pushed up shipowners' costs to move cargoes and further supported freight rates. Ethanol prices in the US and Brazil have also risen, which has disincentivised exports. US ethanol prices rose between 4-13 March in line with gains in oil products and agricultural futures. In-tank transfers at Kinder-Morgan's Argo terminal and for Chicago Rule 11 railcars rallied by more than 6pc, to €436.77/m³ (189.2¢/USG) and €427.19/m³ (185¢/USG) respectively, per Argus assessments. Barge values at New York Harbor rose by 5.5pc to €449.13/m³ (194.50¢/USG). Brazilian ethanol prices were already supported pre-war by reduced domestic supply, a result of the major producing centre-south region being in the December-March sugarcane off season, coinciding with historically low stocks. Brazil's domestic demand for ethanol could grow if state-controlled Petrobras adjusts domestic fuel prices higher then consumers will look to fill up their flex-fuel vehicles with more ethanol. Argus ' price for hydrous ethanol traded on an ex-mill basis in the state of Sao Paulo reached 3,805 reals/m³ (€632.80/m³or 280.1¢/USG) on 23 January, the highest since 24 January 2022. The price has since reversed some of the gains but it is still trading at levels last seen four years ago. EU ethanol production margins fell at the start of the conflict. Between 2-4 March, margins for corn fell by €94.49/m³ to €187.22/m³ and for wheat they fell by €95.49/m³ to €181.20/m³, according to Argus calculations that exclude variable costs of yeasts, enzymes, chemicals and denaturants. In 2025, the average production margin was €197.58/m³ for corn and €198.50/m³ for wheat. Market participants attributed the lower margins to higher prices for natural gas used in the production process. With the war closing off some global LNG supply, the natural gas has gone from 20pc of production costs to 30pc, according to Argus calculations. Prices for grains have also risen, with the EU's corn production down in recent seasons, and imports have become more expensive because of higher shipping costs. By Toby Shay, Leonard Fisher-Matthews, Maria Lígia Barros, Thompson Corpus, Aleksandra Godlewska and Anna Harouni Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Iraq eyes idled pipe, trucks for crude exports: Update


16/03/26
Latest news
16/03/26

Iraq eyes idled pipe, trucks for crude exports: Update

Adds plan to truck crude to Syria and Jordan in paragraphs 5 and 12 Dubai, 16 March (Argus) — Iraq is seeking alternative export routes for its crude to the north, to ports in Turkey, Jordan and Syria, the country's oil minister has said. With its 3.4mn b/d of southern Basrah exports shut in by the de facto closure of the strait of Hormuz, and with the country relying heavily on oil revenues to fund government spending, Baghdad is aware that a prolonged shutdown of exports could place severe strain on state finances and economic and political stability. Baghdad has cut crude production to 1.5mn-1.6mn b/d to prioritise domestic refining and electricity generation, Abdulghani said. Argus estimates production at around 1.2mn b/d. Iraq was expected to produce 4.273mn b/d under its Opec+ quota in March, meaning it has shut in around 3mn b/d. One export option is to begin pumping crude from northern Kirkuk fields to Turkey's Ceyhan port through a long-closed pipeline that will allow it to do so independently of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), oil minister Hayyan Abdulghani said today. Other options are to truck crude to Syria's Banias port and Aqaba in Jordan, he said. The pipeline to Ceyhan, which has been closed by damage since 2014, could initially carry 200,000-250,000 b/d, Abdulghani said. He said final inspections on the rehabilitated pipeline segment are expected to be completed within about a week. The attempt to restart northern exports comes as a dispute between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) intensifies over the use of the pipeline that crosses the Kurdistan region to Turkey. The pipeline, also to Ceyhan, is currently shut , and has been only intermittently operating, at far below its 900,000 b/d capacity, since the war began. Iraq's oil ministry said on 15 March it had repeatedly asked Erbil to allow the resumption of exports from federal fields at up to 300,000 b/d. The KRG has also previously exported around 200,000 b/d. The ministry said the KRG refused to restart exports and attached conditions unrelated to the oil flows. The KRG's ministry of natural resources (MNR) rejected this, saying Baghdad was attempting to shift blame. The MNR said production in Kurdistan had already been halted following repeated missile and drone attacks on energy infrastructure carried out by militia groups. The KRG also accused Baghdad of imposing what it described as a "suffocating economic blockade" on the region through restrictions on dollar access and trade flows. KRG leader Masoud Barzani called on both governments to meet and resolve their differences, warning Iraq faces multiple crises as the regional war continues. "Opportunists seeking to deepen divisions must be stopped," Barzani said on 16 March. Earlier proposals from Erbil suggested a broader political settlement linking customs systems, dollar access for local traders and the resumption of oil exports through the Ceyhan pipeline. Iraq has also issued several tenders for the supply of crude from Syria's Banias and Jordan's Aqaba ports, Abdulghani said. The tender awards are expected within the next two days and the crude will be moved to the two ports by truck. Some market sources said the supplies could head to Mediterranean refiners, given the ports' proximity, but doubted they will be able to offset the region's looming shortfall of Iraqi crude through the strait of Hormuz. By Bachar Halabi and Ellanee Kruck Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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UK extends £50mn energy subsidy to LPG users


16/03/26
Latest news
16/03/26

UK extends £50mn energy subsidy to LPG users

London, 16 March (Argus) — The UK government's £50mn energy subsidy for low-income households will also apply to LPG users, according to the finance ministry. The support package was originally announced to tackle the rising cost of heating oil as a result of the war in the Middle East. Some UK homes use 1,000ppm sulphur kerosine for heating and hot water, and the war has caused jet-kerosine to trade around double the price of crude. LPG was omitted from the announcement as the wholesale cost has not seen the same dramatic surges, the ministry told Argus . But it recognised the increase in the product price and has directed the legal authorities to support energy for all fuels that are used for the purpose of domestic heating, cooking or lighting. Northwest European large cargo propane benchmark hit a four-year high at $817.75/t on 13 March, marking a 45pc increase since the conflict started. Europe does not take LPG from the Middle East, but the de-facto closure of the strait of Hormuz — the main route for Mideast Gulf oil exports — is intensifying Asian competition for US cargoes, a critical source of supply for Europe. Prices of both LPG and heating oil are not capped by energy regulator Ofgem, meaning those consumers are exposed to significantly higher energy bills Around 200,000 households in the UK use LPG for heating, according to the industry association Liquid Gas UK. By Waldemar Jaszczyk Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Canada pledges 24mn bl to IEA oil stabilization


16/03/26
Latest news
16/03/26

Canada pledges 24mn bl to IEA oil stabilization

Calgary, 16 March (Argus) — Canada's oil industry will increase production by 23.6mn bl in the coming months for its contribution to the massive price stabilization effort by the IEA, according to the federal government. The coordinated effort by members of the Paris-based IEA would make about 412mn bl of additional crude and refined products available to the market after the de facto closure of the strait of Hormuz cut off Mideast Gulf exports. The IEA's 11 March decision to tap into stockpiles was made unanimously by its 32 member states, including Canada. But with no strategic petroleum reserves, Canada's offering will come in the form of production increases, mostly from Alberta's oil sands, and will be coordinated with the federal and provincial governments, Natural Resources Canada said. The 23.6mn bl will start to reach the market in April with the entire volume taking three-to-six months, the federal agency told Argus . That translates into a range of about 128,000-260,000 b/d. Canada produces about 5.3mn b/d with nearly 4mn b/d of that coming from Alberta's oil sands. The US will contribute about 172mn bls from its strategic petroleum reserves for the IEA effort. IEA secretary general Fatih Birol said Monday the agency's members still have more than 1.4bn bl of inventory, meaning "we can do more later if needed." By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US in talks to boost Kazakh coal sector


16/03/26
Latest news
16/03/26

US in talks to boost Kazakh coal sector

London, 16 March (Argus) — Kazakhstan's energy ministry is in talks with the US over developing the country's coal sector and other ways to maintain energy security, according to an official Kazakh government release. Kazakh energy minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov today met the US ambassador to Kazakhstan, Julie Stufft, to discuss increasing co-operation between the two countries in the energy sector. Discussions included ways in which Kazakhstan can develop its coal processing and expand "clean coal" technologies to boost the efficiency of coal-fired generation and reduce environmental impacts. The parties also discussed partnerships with US firms, including oil majors Chevron and ExxonMobil, to develop oil and gas projects at three of the country's major producing fields — Tengiz, Kashagan and Karachaganak. Other topics for discussion were how to maintain stable export routes from Kazakhstan and developing projects to produce ammonia, urea, synthetic gas and diesel. Kazakhstan has in the past year received investment from China and Russia to develop its coal sector, but the meeting today marked the first sign of official interest from the US in the rapidly growing Kazakh sector. Global energy security concerns have been pushed to the fore by the US/Israel-Iran war , with oil and gas supplies from the Mideast Gulf disrupted by the effective closure of the strait of Hormuz. Kazakhstan has been focusing on ways to utilise its 33bn t of coal reserves as part of the country's national project to expand coal-fired power capacity starting this year. By Shreyashi Sanyal Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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