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Viewpoint: Copper supply tightness beckons in Europe
Viewpoint: Copper supply tightness beckons in Europe
London, 17 December (Argus) — Europe's copper market heads into 2026 carrying the imprint of an extraordinary 2025, a year in which price signals, physical flows and geopolitics diverged sharply. What emerged was not a simple story of shortage or surplus, but a fractured global market in which Europe briefly found itself competing for metal with the US, while China's smelting overcapacity distorted upstream fundamentals. While European supply has stabilised, a projected tightness in 2026 promises higher premiums, particularly if underlying metal prices remain at record highs. Fractured fundamentals in 2025 Copper prices surged through 2025, with London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month values repeatedly achieving record territory above $11,000/t and briefly approaching $12,000/t in December. On the surface, the rally appeared to signal a classic supply crunch, driven by mine disruptions at assets such as Grasberg, in Indonesia, and Kamoa-Kakula, in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and structurally strong demand from grids, electrification and data centres. But the deeper story was more complex. Demand growth was uneven. China's apparent consumption slowed sharply in the second half of the year as stimulus effects faded, while manufacturing activity in Europe remained weak. Yet prices continued to rise, reflecting not so much booming end-use demand as a geopolitical and logistical reshaping of supply. The decisive factor was the growing pull of copper into the US market on the threat of import tariffs on refined copper. The widening price premium on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) contract relative to the LME opened a powerful arbitrage that drew metal out of LME warehouses and, by extension, away from Europe. By late 2025, CME stocks accounted for more than half of global exchange inventories, while LME registered stocks fell below 100,000t at points — levels historically associated with acute tightness in deliverable supply. For Europe, this mattered more than headline global balances. Even as total exchange inventories rose above 700,000t worldwide, availability became tighter in non-US regions, pushing spot and term premiums sharply higher. LME-CME arbitrage: the key swing factor The LME-CME arbitrage, which is governed by several interlinked factors — relative interest rates, currency moves, logistics costs, warehouse accessibility and above all, US trade policy — is expected to remain in 2026. As long as the CME price commands a premium of several hundred dollars per tonne over the LME, the incentive to ship metal into the US persists. In 2025, that premium regularly exceeded estimated freight and financing costs, keeping the arbitrage wide open. In 2026, tariff-driven uncertainty could trigger further pre-emptive inflows into the US early in the year, sustaining tightness elsewhere — including Europe — before potentially easing later once inventories are built and global supply recovers from 2025 shocks. Conversely, a delay or dilution of tariffs could narrow the spread, allowing some metal to remain or return to LME locations. European supply and premiums: a new baseline? European spot premiums eased in September-November as the scramble for cathode outside the US eased, but as major producers have responded to 2025 events by lifting 2026 term premiums aggressively, European spot premiums also surged as sellers look to mirror the new market baseline in the spot market. Chilean supplier Codelco announced a near 40pc increase in its European premium for 2026 deliveries, taking it to the mid-$300s/t over LME, with Aurubis following with similarly high offers. The Argus assessment for copper cathode grade A cif Rotterdam rose to $210-220/t on 2 December, increasing by more than a third relative to September-November levels. Trading groups and producers surveyed by Argus indicate a reassessment of risk — producers are pricing in the possibility that Europe becomes structurally "second in line" behind the US for deliverable cathode. Whether these elevated premiums are sustainable through the whole of 2026 depends on how quickly arbitrage-driven stock movements stabilise. But even if LME stocks rebuild later in the year, the premium reset of 2025 may have established a higher floor for Europe. Bank forecasts: surplus, but not comfort Major banks mostly agree that the global copper market remains in surplus in 2026, although the size of that surplus is shrinking. Goldman Sachs projects a surplus of about 160,000t in 2026, down from roughly 500,000t in 2025, and expects prices to average $10,000-11,000/t. But the International Copper Study Group points to a possible deficit of 150,000t in 2026, keeping the market on watch. Chinese market participants are expecting non-US supply to tighten significantly as material flows in the US, but some US market participants point to an easing trend. On paper, these numbers argue against a classic shortage. But the experience of 2025 shows that regional tightness can coexist with a global surplus. For Europe, the key takeaway is that surplus metal may not be available where it is needed, when it is needed, if arbitrage and policy continue to redirect flows. In that sense, 2026 could resemble 2025 — balanced or a surplus globally, but intermittently tight in Europe. By Raghav Jain Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Libyan oil firms bypass government to sell crude
Libyan oil firms bypass government to sell crude
London, 17 December (Argus) — Libyan upstream operators have used a special contractual clause to sell some crude directly to international oil firms in recent months, bypassing the central government to directly access oil revenues, sources told Argus . Mellitah Oil & Gas, Akakus Oil, Zueitina Oil and Agoco sold crude worth more than $380mn between March and October, under this "proxy-payment" scheme, to Italy's Eni, Spain's Repsol, Austria's OMV and Libya's Arkenu Oil respectively, according to sources. The mechanism is legal under a clause in production-sharing contracts dating back to the time of former leader Muammar Gaddafi, which allows operators to sell crude directly to cover special funding needs, sources said. But sources and analysts say the mechanism is opaque, lacks checks and balances and could be exploited for personal gain. It also diverts oil revenues away from the central bank, the custodian of Libya's oil wealth. "The proxy payments occur outside the framework of the ministry of finance and the central bank [and] are not recorded as official revenues or expenditures," said an official at the ministry of finance. "It is being used as an unlawful tool for controlling oil revenues." NOC, Eni, Repsol and Arkenu have been contacted for comment. OMV declined to comment. State-owned NOC, which has stakes in the upstream operators, normally sells its equity crude production to international buyers with proceeds flowing to a ministry of finance account at the central bank in Tripoli. International oil firms with stakes in the operators, including Eni, Repsol and OMV, are allocated equity crude and pay royalties and taxes to the Libyan state. The crude being sold under the proxy payment mechanism is from Libya's equity production, and is separate from the equity crude allocated to international oil firms. The operators are usually reliant on the state to fund their operations. But Libya's political division, with rival governments in the east and west, has for years prevented a unified state budget, leaving operators with irregular and insufficient funding from the central government in Tripoli. "The mechanism was never supposed to be used in this way," said a source with knowledge of the matter. "You can't confirm where this money is being spent." "It's been heavily exploited now in the absence of a budget," said another source at a private Libyan oil firm. Libya's fragmented political framework has allowed powerful groups varying levels of control over the economy, including in the upstream sector. Enter Arkenu The most high-profile example of this is services firm Arkenu Oil, which the UN has said is controlled by Saddam Haftar, a son of east-Libya militia leader Khalifa Haftar. Arkenu has a contract with NOC subsidiary Agoco , operator of the Sarir and Mesla oil fields, to boost output in return for payments in crude. Industry figures and analysts question the capacity of Arkenu to carry out such work and have said the company may be part of an illicit revenue generating scheme. Arkenu has received crude valued at $200mn under the proxy payment mechanism, a source said. Libya's Tripoli-based government ordered a review of contracts related to Arkenu earlier this year, although analysts question the sincerity of the move. Sources and analysts say the use of proxy payments mechanism could spiral and further drain state revenues. Libya produces about 1.4mn b/d of crude and makes most of its income from oil exports, which were worth $28.7bn in 2024, according to Opec's latest Annual Statistic Bulletin. The heads of NOC, the central bank, audit bureau and the attorney general met in late November to discuss, among other issues, the proxy payment mechanism "and its implications for the state's general budget." By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EU's Hoekstra confident of CBAM export support
EU's Hoekstra confident of CBAM export support
Brussels, 17 December (Argus) — European climate and taxation commissioner Wopke Hoekstra is "absolutely" confident that EU member states will give "full" support to an EU-wide temporary decarbonisation fund for carbon leakage in industrial sectors covered by the bloc's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). This is despite the European Commission proposing that 25pc of CBAM revenues originally earmarked for national budgets now finance the CBAM fund. "We're not going to make this part of the EU budget. This is money that immediately is going to be spent on the companies of member states," Hoekstra told Argus , noting that the fund is helping EU states' own industries. Financing the fund may still be contentious, especially for EU countries. In addition to proposing that the fund be financed by revenues currently earmarked for EU states' budgets, the commission leaves untouched the remaining 75pc earmarked for the EU budget. Hoekstra said that CBAM's increased scope, expanded to downstream products, "roughly" equates to the financing required for the fund. "We did not try to design it exactly that way. But it is convenient because it makes the conversation with member states even easier," Hoekstra said. The European Parliament and EU member states are likely to amend the revised CBAM regulation and accompanying laws before adoption. Under the proposal, over 140 CN goods categories produced by EU-based manufacturers will receive support from the fund. The commission does not propose any differentiation between support given to manufacturers' EU exports and locally sold goods. The commission is proposing extending CBAM to certain steel and aluminium-intensive downstream products from the start of 2028. A further 180 CN custom duty codes will include some 7,500 new importers under the mechanism. A wide range of iron and steel products are proposed for inclusion, including stranded wire, ropes, cables, washing machines, sawing machines and even metal furniture. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
CBAM verification to redefine Italian HRC pricing
CBAM verification to redefine Italian HRC pricing
London, 17 December (Argus) — Italian hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices could find stronger support in 2026 as the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) moves into its financial phase and safeguard quotas tighten, raising the cost and complexity of third-country supply. Default values under CBAM underscore the need for suppliers to have their emissions data verified, and perceptions of compliance and trustworthiness could reshape import flows in the year ahead. A modest recovery in real steel consumption could add to the upward pressure, even as buyers remain cautious after four years of contraction. European steel association Eurofer forecasts EU real steel consumption will rise by 1.1pc in 2026, following declines of 4.2pc in 2024 and an expected 2.1pc this year, weighed down by weak automotive demand. The improvement coincides with stricter import regulation: CBAM charges will vary by origin, and quota management will become critical, as volumes drop. The origin of import material is likely to only grow in importance for purchasing decision-making. Argus currently publishes seven HRC origin differentials to its cif Italy HRC assessment. Low-CBAM, short-haul origins could tighten spreads to domestic offers, while higher-CBAM volumes will need deeper discounts to remain competitive, which would be exacerbated by expectations of pro-rated safeguard duties once the post-safeguard mechanism enters into effect. Beyond carbon intensity and quota considerations, the ability of suppliers to demonstrate verified CBAM compliance could become a decisive factor in purchasing decisions. Mills perceived as lacking robust internal processes for emissions reporting may face reduced buyer confidence, while those with transparent systems could command a premium. In a market where regulatory risk is rising, trustworthiness and preparedness are emerging as value drivers, influencing origin differentials and potentially narrowing the gap between suppliers perceived as compliant and domestic offers. Domestic Italian mills, by contrast, are positioned to hold premiums over 2025 average prices as imports lose some of their cost advantage, and as volumes are likely to be cut. The Argus Italian HRC ex-works assessment has averaged €583.71/t so far in 2025, down from €620.13/t in 2024, while cif Italy has averaged €530.39/t against €578.47/t a year earlier. Lower averages reflected subdued demand and steady import arrivals through to mid-year, when ample offers from Indonesia, India and Turkey, combined with a firm US dollar, pulled cif Italy lower and forced mills to discount. Domestic HRC values slid into the summer on thin buying and cheaper imports, hitting a low monthly average of €535.75/t in July. Prices rebounded sharply in October to average €608.75/t ex-works as expectations of tighter import rules and CBAM-linked costs lifted sentiment, even as downstream demand stayed muted. With carbon intensity and quotas shaping trade flows, Italian HRC in 2026 could trade higher than in 2025: not on demand strength alone, but on the rising premium for certainty in a more regulated import landscape. By Lora Stoyanova Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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