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17/06/26

Iranian oil likely to return to mainstream fleet

Iranian oil likely to return to mainstream fleet

New York, 17 June (Argus) — The non-sanctioned crude tanker market could see a surge in demand if the pending peace deal between the US and Iran lifts penalties that have weighed on Iranian oil for years, according to shipowners at the Marine Money Conference in New York this week. Iranian crude is commonly transported on "shadow fleet" vessels, older, poorly insured ships that are used to bypass western sanctions to transport sanctioned crude to global markets. The draft of the 14-point memorandum between the US and Iran, leaked yesterday, included the lifting of western sanctions and the issuance of waivers for exports of Iranian crude , petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services, including banking, insurance and transportation. "Part of the agreement is that Iranian oil comes back into the fold, and that would certainly mean, over time, this oil will be transported on (mainstream) vessels," Capital Tankers chief executive Jerry Kalogiratos told the conference. Once Iranian oil is treated the same as other non-sanctioned crude, there will be no incentive for importers to use the "sub-standard ships", he said. Iranian oil that may be relieved of sanctions under the US-Iran agreement is a completely "new barrel" to the compliant fleet, shipowner Frontline's chief executive Lars Barstad said on the panel. Heightened demand for Iranian crude transported on mainstream fleet tankers could help support rates for crude tankers. The US Office of Foreign Assets Control's (OFAC) issuance of a general license on Venezuelan crude earlier this year — after the US captured the country's president and the subsequent increase in Venezuelan exports carried by compliant ships — has had a similar supportive effect on crude rates out of the US Gulf coast . "It's an exceptional deal for Iran," said OFAC's former head of policy Stephanie Connor at the same conference. Before the US-Iran conflict, China's independent refining industry was one of the main importers of Iranian crude, despite the US sanctions. With the issuance of a general license on Iranian export, countries that were sanctioned by the US would be incentivized to buy Iranian crude . "If OFAC issues a general license on Friday, that's great, for some people," Connor said. "Mostly US adversaries who are already trading in Iran, despite US sanctions." By Delfina Marchese and Charlotte Bawol Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Latest news

Brazil's Cibra sells blending unit in Parana state


17/06/26
Latest news
17/06/26

Brazil's Cibra sells blending unit in Parana state

Sao Paulo, 17 June (Argus) — Brazilian fertilizer firm Cibra will sell its blending unit in southern Parana state to Brazilian fertilizer firm Inpek Fertilizantes, which is part of US fertilizer firm Nitron. The transaction has been submitted to Brazil's antitrust watchdog Cade and involves physical assets and operating licenses of a unit focused on blending mineral fertilizers, which is operating at reduced capacity. The transaction is part of Cibra's strategy of focusing investments on operations that offer greater efficiency, the company told Argus . The unit's production capacity and transaction values were not disclosed. By Bruno Castro Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US Fed holds rate steady, signals hike this year


17/06/26
Latest news
17/06/26

US Fed holds rate steady, signals hike this year

Houston, 17 June (Argus) — US Federal Reserve policymakers held the target interest rate unchanged Wednesday, citing "elevated uncertainty" partly due to the Mideast Gulf war. The Fed, in its median economic projections, penciled in one possible quarter-point rate hike for this year, compared with a previously estimated quarter-point cut by the end of this year. The Fed's rate-setting Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75pc in its fourth meeting of 2026, following quarter-point cuts in September, October and December last year. "Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty owed, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East," the FOMC said after the first meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh, the recently Senate-confirmed new Federal Reserve chairman. "Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. "Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's two-percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability," the statement said. The economic projections see PCE inflation ending the year at 3.6pc, up from 2.7pc in the March projection, with it falling to 2.3pc by the end of 2027. Fed officials see gross domestic product growth ending the year at 2.2pc, down from 2.4pc in the March projection. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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EU FeSi trends lower as safeguard quotas left unfilled


17/06/26
Latest news
17/06/26

EU FeSi trends lower as safeguard quotas left unfilled

London, 17 June (Argus) — European ferro-silicon prices have trended down since the EU's safeguard quotas renewed in May, as plentiful supply in European warehouses weighed on import demand. European ferro-silicon prices have fallen by 3.6pc since the start of the third safeguard period on 18 May. Argus last assessed prices at €1,240-1,280/t ddp NWE on 16 June, after holding rangebound for three weeks on sluggish spot trade. An overhang of low-priced inventory imported ahead of the initial safeguard implementation in November 2025 has eased the pressure to import material and fill the quota. Much of this material remains in European warehouses as sellers anticipate higher prices once safeguard quotas begin to fill. "There are still a lot of cheap units in the system," a trader said. "Those holders are waiting for better numbers." The EU's smaller quota allocations for material from Brazil and other countries have already filled but larger quotas such as Norway and Iceland are taking more time. Many suppliers have withdrawn offers at current levels and delayed sales in expectation of stronger pricing later in the year, market participants said. Near-term trading is expected to remain muted because of slow underlying steel demand and a seasonal slowdown in July-August. "People are not offering at these levels," a trader said. "They are waiting for the quotas to fill further before selling." But considering the cost impact from a recent jump in silico-manganese prices , after quotas for material from India and other countries filled in May, buyers may push to secure low-cost units before ferro-silicon prices can follow the same trajectory. Once the allocated safeguard quotas are exhausted, ferro-silicon importers will have to pay a minimum import price, which is fixed at €2,408/t. This is much higher than the minimum import prices for other alloys included in the safeguard measures such as silico-manganese, which stands at €1,392/t. The minimum import cost for ferro-silicon is almost double current spot prices, making out-of-quota material particularly risky. This would leave trading firms that import beyond the allocated quota exposed to a significant loss unless prices in Europe increase. Silicon metal presents an alternative Silicon metal, which is also used as a source of elemental silicon and can partially substitute ferro-silicon, has become more attractive to buyers seeking to avoid higher ferro-silicon prices entirely. Some buyers have chosen silicon as a substitute because of lower cost imports coming from Angola and China, a ferro-silicon producer explained. Silicon metal, which was investigated but ultimately excluded from the safeguard measures in November, is a point of concern for European ferro-silicon producers that are unable to compete against lower-priced imports from third countries. Historically, silicon has traded at a premium to ferro-silicon, but the spread between the two has narrowed since 2022, making substitution more attractive despite silicon's higher absolute price. Argus last assessed European 5-5-3 grade silicon prices at €1,475-1,600/t ddp Europe works on 16 June. By Lauren Hadeed Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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GCC steel trade sees slow recovery


17/06/26
Latest news
17/06/26

GCC steel trade sees slow recovery

London, 17 June (Argus) — Steel market participants in the Middle East do not expect prices to normalise immediately, or for raw material inflows to recovery quickly, following the announcement of a potential US-Iran peace deal. Market sentiment has improved but expectations for an imminent peace deal have not yet changed the physical steel market, participants said. Freight costs and insurance premiums will probably ease gradually, and buyers are cautious after production and shipment delays, stoppages and force majeure notices during the conflict. Metallics and pellets A peace deal that results in the reopening of the strait of Hormuz will likely first affect steelmaking raw materials, before any impact is felt in the finished steel market. Steel mills in Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries have faced tighter availability of iron ore pellets, direct reduced iron (DRI), hot-briquetted iron (HBI) and scrap since trade through Hormuz was disrupted, with DRI-based production in the region heavily dependent on seaborne raw material flows. Iran was a key supplier of merchant DRI and HBI to the GCC before the conflict, leaving Gulf producers exposed. The UAE has been less affected than some other GCC markets because mills have been able to source some pellet and DRI from Oman. Pellets cannot be moved easily by road and need vessel access through specific ports. Major pellet supplier Bahrain Steel's iron ore cargoes were delayed outside the strait of Hormuz, docked at Madagascar and later discharged in India, sources said. Traders expect some of this material to be brought back to the Gulf once the strait reopens. Saudi Arabia has also faced scrap shortages but this will not be resolved quickly after the strait reopens, market participants said. Domestic scrap generation is limited and collection usually slows during the summer. Saudi scrap availability is unlikely to improve in June-September, regardless of whether Hormuz reopens, a regional market participant said. Semi-finished steel The disruptions to raw material flows have increased demand for semi-finished steel, because billet can be moved more easily than pellets or other bulk raw materials. This has made billet a more workable replacement for mills that cannot secure enough metallics, even if inland transport costs remain high. Saudi buyers have bought significant amounts of billet in recent weeks, including a large cargo from India. Billet cargoes are being discharged at western Saudi ports and transported by truck to a major production site in the east of the country, because of the effective closure of the strait and despite elevated trucking costs. Iranian billet has continued to move in small volumes, even though Iranian flat steel supply was disrupted by earlier restrictions on slab exports following attacks in late March that led to production stoppages. Some Iranian billet has been sold into Saudi Arabia outside the regular channels, but sales to UAE have been scarce because of import certification requirements. Around 50,000-60,000t of Iranian billet is currently on vessels and could be sold to Turkey or Syria, sources said. Sellers are waiting for higher prices before closing deals, with Iranian billet heard at $410-420/t fob. Finished steel output, exports Long steel prices in the GCC have risen since the start of the conflict, with the Argus UAE ex-works rebar index rising by 325 dirham/t ($90/t) to Dh2,750/t from 4 February-4 June. Major Saudi producer Hadeed hiked its rebar offers by 670 riyals/t ($180/t) to SR2,930/t. Meanwhile, Argus ' hot-rolled coil (HRC) cfr UAE import assessment rose by $110/t from late February to $600/t cfr on 21 May. Hadeed increased its HRC offers by SR490/t to around SR2,800/t in late May compared with before the war started. Saudi prices are expected to fall once raw material supply improves and output normalises, but any decline is unlikely to be immediate. Mills first need to rebuild their inventories, clear delayed cargoes and confirm that freight costs are decreasing, sources said. No immediate market change took place after the latest political announcements, a UAE flat steel producer said. Steel prices do not move like equities, as buyers need to see whether a deal is signed, whether it holds and whether Hormuz opens fully before treating Middle Eastern cargoes as normal again, the producer said. Finished steel exports from the GCC are unlikely to recover quickly. Buyers outside the region are expected to apply a risk discount to Middle Eastern material after recent delays and cancellations. EU sales are also limited by uncertainty surrounding country-specific safeguard quotas and carbon border adjustment mechanism requirements. Some Saudi export orders are on hold while sellers wait for clarity on EU quotas for the next quarter. By Elif Eyuboglu and Amruta Khandekar Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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