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Carbon — In Focus: EU ETS in political crosshairs
Carbon — In Focus: EU ETS in political crosshairs
London, 13 February (Argus) — Political focus on the EU emissions trading system (ETS) has intensified noticeably in the past two weeks, weighing on prices, as leaders and policymakers consider how the scheme's approaching review can be used to address its implications for industrial competitiveness in the bloc. The benchmark front-year EU ETS contract dropped by almost 6pc on the day on 5 February, in reaction to media reports suggesting that the European Commission was planning to weaken the system. EU officials were quick to express "surprise" at a "mix-up" in reports on the possible extension of free allowance allocation beyond 2034, emphasising that the trajectory and ways of aiding industrial decarbonisation will be part of the EU ETS review, legislative proposals for which are expected to be published by the European Commission early in the third quarter. The EU ETS is increasingly under scrutiny as politicians look to address the high costs local industries are facing, threatening its competitiveness on the world stage. Emissions prices in reality only contribute a portion of such rising costs, which are driven by numerous factors feeding into higher energy costs and uncertain market outlooks. The global macroeconomic prospects are constantly exposed to geopolitical risks such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict — which has had a large impact on natural gas supply, or US tariff threats. But as the EU ETS is a political instrument, set to undergo a major review later this year, it is seen as a much easier opening to address costs than wider energy markets, which are at the whim of wider economical and political factors. Discussions came to a head as industrials and politicians gathered in Belgium for the European Industry Summit on 11 February — where industry seized the opportunity to lobby for adjustments to the system — and an informal EU leaders' summit the following day. "After 20 years in the ETS we might have gone in the wrong direction," said Marco Mensink, director general of chemical industry association Cefic, which organised the summit. German chancellor Friedrich Merz — whose CDU party is staunchly pro-business — weighed in on the matter, stating that "this system is not the system to generate new revenues". "We should be very open to revise it or at least to postpone" the ETS, he said, without specifying what such a revision or postponement would entail. He softened his comments the next day at the end of the leaders' summit, terming the ETS as an "effective instrument" in need of frequent revision to make sure it continues to work effectively. But carbon prices had already fallen in reaction to his initial statement, dropping another 7pc in all on 12 February to stand at their lowest levels since August. And comments by other EU leaders following the summit reinforced a general push to reform the system, even if details on how to do so were scant. French president Emmanuel Macron said he wants "concrete" solutions from the European Commission in March to reduce the ETS price burden. Belgian prime minister Bart De Wever urged "intelligent" adaptations to industry's "too high" CO2 costs. And Czech prime minister Andrej Babis reiterated his position that ETS allowances are "destroying" his country's industry. Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, who also attended the meeting, defended the ETS's "clear benefits", and pointed to its market stability reserve as an option to "modulate" the price. She had at the industry summit the previous day already emphasised that member states invest less than 5pc of ETS revenues in industrial decarbonisation, saying that "this will be a core focus of the upcoming reform of our ETS this summer." A review of the system is not a surprise — it has been written into the EU ETS's governing directive since 2023. But lack of visibility on which changes member states will push for has left participants with an uncertain outlook. "The events of the last two days have amply demonstrated that confidence requires political as well as regulatory stability," the International Emissions Trading Association said. "The EU ETS must remain protected from ad hoc political interventions that risk undermining investor confidence and weakening Europe's decarbonisation pathway." The still significant long position held by speculative participants leaves prices open to extensive downside risk. Investment funds held an outright long position of 118.3mn allowances in the EU ETS at the Intercontinental Exchange (Ice) in the week ending 6 February, commitment of traders data published by the platform on Wednesday show. UK ETS tumbles Despite not being at the centre of political discussions, allowances under the UK ETS have seen even larger losses this week as wider uncertainty surrounding the tenure of prime minister Keir Starmer prompted some participants to close out positions in the market. The benchmark front-year contract declined by 19pc cumulatively over the past three sessions. Similarly to the EU ETS, investment funds have built up a substantial outright long position of 22.1mn permits in the UK ETS at the Ice, posing downside risk. And price moves tend to be exaggerated in the UK ETS compared with the EU ETS because of the former market's relative lack of liquidity. By Victoria Hatherick EU, UK ETS front-year contracts €/t CO2e Investment fund long positions on Ice '000 allowances Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US inflation slows to 2.4pc in January
US inflation slows to 2.4pc in January
Houston, 13 February (Argus) — US headline inflation slowed to an eight-month low in January, a sign that supply chains may have largely absorbed the effects of tariffs. The consumer price index (CPI) cooled to a 2.4pc annual pace in January, down from 2.7pc in December and November and below the 2.5pc forecast average in a Trading Economics survey. It was the lowest monthly reading since May last year. So-called core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rose at an annual 2.5pc pace, slowing from 2.6pc in December. "The downside surprise in the January CPI is welcome news for the Federal Reserve," Oxford Economics said in a research note. "Lingering distortions from the (partial government) shutdown in the price data, prospects for solid growth this year, and a stabilizing job market will keep the central bank on hold until June." The lack of typical January upside surprises, Oxford said, "is further reinforcing our view that tariff-induced price increases on the goods side are largely behind us." Services less energy services, considered a core measure of services, rose by 2.9pc in January, slowing from 3pc in December. Gasoline falls 7.5pc The energy index fell by a 0.1pc annual pace in January compared with a 2.3pc gain a month earlier. Gasoline declined by 7.5pc compared with a 3.4pc drop a month earlier. The fuel oil index fell at a 4.2pc annual pace after rising by 7.4pc in the prior month. Energy services rose by 7.2pc, slowing from a 7.7pc annual gain in December. Piped natural gas was up by 9.8pc compared with 10.8pc the prior month. Electricity rose by 6.3pc, slowing from a 6.7pc pace a month prior. Shelter rose by 3pc from a year earlier, slowing from a 3.2pc annual gain in December. Medical care services rose by 3.9pc compared with a 3.5pc annual gain a month earlier. Transportation services rose at a 1.3pc pace, compared with a 1.5pc gain a month earlier. New vehicles rose at a 0.4pc annual rate compared with a 0.3pc gain in December. Used vehicles fell by 2pc on the year compared with 1.6pc gain a month earlier. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Japan’s 50MW Tomato biomass unit begins operations
Japan’s 50MW Tomato biomass unit begins operations
Tokyo, 13 February (Argus) — Japan's 50MW Tomato biomass-fired power plant came on line, holding company Hokkaido Electric Power (Hepco) announced on 13 February. The biomass plant, located in Japan's northernmost Hokkaido prefecture, started commercial operations today. It will burn around 200,000t/yr of wood pellets, mainly imported from Vietnam and Indonesia. The facility is designed to generate up to 340GWh/yr of electricity, which will be sold under the country's feed in tariff (FiT) scheme at a fixed price of ¥24/kWh (16¢/kWh) for approximately 20 years, according to Hepco. The start-up was delayed from an initially scheduled date of April 2025 . The operating company, Tomato Biomass Power, is a joint venture 80pc owned by Singapore-based fund company Equis and 20pc by Japanese utility Hepco, which also handles plant maintenance. Hepco aims to install a carbon capture and storage (CCS) system — currently under development — onto the biomass plant around 2030-31 to achieve carbon-negative operations. Hepco is also researching technologies to produce methane from hydrogen and CO2 captured at power plants, the company said. Hepco further plans to pursue co-firing with coal and black pellets, which are also known as torrefied pellets, at its thermal power plant . Black pellets have a higher calorific value along with better water resistance and grindability compared with regular wood pellets, enabling them to be handled similarly to coal — although they remain more expensive than coal and conventional biomass fuels. By Takeshi Maeda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia should have CBAM on some commodities: Review
Australia should have CBAM on some commodities: Review
Sydney, 13 February (Argus) — Australia should consider introducing a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), starting with imports of cement and clinker and potentially expanding to products such as hydrogen, steel, and ammonia and derivatives like urea and ammonium phosphate, according to a key report released by the government today. The identified commodities face risk of future carbon leakage from imports, which could lead to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions being relocated from Australia to overseas. The carbon leakage review , led by Australian National University professor Frank Jotzo between July 2023 and March 2025, assessed leakage risks in 2030 for all 75 trade-exposed commodities under Australia's safeguard mechanism across 42 commodity groups. The review was announced as part of the 2023 reform of the safeguard mechanism While current safeguard mechanism settings are effective at mitigating carbon leakage risk in the short- to medium-term, the declining emissions baselines under the scheme could put some of the identified sectors at a "more significant" risk over time, according to the report. Cement and clinker first, others to follow Risks are higher for cement and clinker, and the implementation of a border carbon adjustment for these products "is likely to be simplest," according to the report. Australian production of lime and glass, on the other hand, is only partially covered under the safeguard mechanism, and a CBAM application would face more complexity. Hydrogen, steel, and ammonia and derivatives carry material carbon leakage risks, but feature more complexity with respect to production methods, supply chains, and product diversity. Some of these products are also only partially covered by the safeguard mechanism. The government should also consider potential risks for a second group of commodities, consisting of aluminium and alumina, refined petroleum, and pulp and paper. These products face mixed evidence related to leakage risk indicators and analysis of trade and investment leakage, but the government could assess them in the forthcoming review of the safeguard mechanism scheduled for the July 2026-June 2027 financial year and consider particularly the suitability of arrangements for emissions-intensive trade-exposed activities for all commodities under the scheme. Preference for fees instead of ACCU surrenders The safeguard mechanism covers over 200 individual facilities emitting more than 100,000t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in a compliance year across the oil and gas, mining, manufacturing, transport and waste sectors. Facilities earn Safeguard Mechanism Credits (SMCs) if their reported scope 1 emissions fall below their baselines, and must surrender SMCs or Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) if emissions exceed the threshold. If the Australian government decides to pursue a CBAM, it should consider applying liabilities only to scope 1 emissions that exceed the relevant safeguard mechanism baseline at the time of import. The assessment should be based on explicit carbon prices only, and the liability should account for the differences between the effective carbon price paid in the originating country and an Australian benchmark price. While importers could, in principle, clear the liability by paying a fee or surrendering ACCUs, there was "broad support" for the fee option during the consultation, according to the report. Surrendering ACCUs would more closely reflect domestic requirements, but trading in ACCUs has legislative requirements that would have to be met by importers which would require careful consideration, the report warned. The ACCU purchase option would create additional demand for the product, raising prices. But stakeholder feedback "reflected concerns about the potential impact on ACCU supply" if these carbon credit units were used to meet carbon border adjustment liabilities. The government should not consider a carbon border adjustment that provides rebates for exports, as that would be inconsistent with Australia's emissions reduction targets and could raise considerable international trade law concerns. "Rebating emissions obligations to exports would effectively exempt production for export from emissions reductions obligations, running counter to overall policy objectives towards net zero and increasing the required emissions reductions elsewhere in the economy," the report read. Teba provisions could be removed Trade-exposed, baseline-adjusted (Teba) facilities operating in emission-intensive sectors that might face unfair competition from imports from countries with weaker or no emission reduction policies currently benefit from discounted baseline decline rates under the safeguard mechanism. Decline rates can be as low as 2pc for non-manufacturing sectors or 1pc for manufacturing sectors, compared with the standard 4.9pc/yr declining rate until 2030. The Teba provisions for a commodity should be removed once a border carbon adjustment is fully implemented for that commodity, according to the review. Limited impact on downstream activity The report also noted that analysis indicates the impact of a carbon border adjustment on downstream activity, such as construction, would be "very limited". "The review's analysis suggests that the maximum price impacts on final goods that incorporate commodities that may be subject to a border carbon adjustment, such as wind farms, house construction and crops like wheat, would be vanishingly small as a share of product prices," the report said. The government said today it will continue to consult on carbon leakage with affected industries, and will consider the report's recommendations in the safeguard mechanism review. By Juan Weik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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