Inside Fertilizer Analytics: Green ammonia, Jun. 2021

Author Argus

The currently embryonic but potentially huge market for ammonia as a low or zero carbon energy carrier is generating high levels of interest in the global energy industry and across multiple commodity markets.

Join Andrea Valentini, Principal – Projects and Tim Cheyne, VP – Fertilizers as they discuss the key questions facing the exciting green ammonia sector. We start with a high level view on green ammonia pricing, the commercial application of green ammonia and how it could be priced. We discuss similarities to how the LNG market first developed (at least in the short term), with pricing linked to project economics. We then review what green ammonia could cost per tonne in terms of levelized cost, in comparison to grey ammonia production costs. We assess the potential for carbon tax, regulation or incentives to bridge the gap in production costs – perhaps the key initiative to unlocking the potential of green ammonia projects. We analyse whether the green ammonia market will impact grey ammonia pricing and capacity, and assess how blue ammonia could fit into the market with the potential for parallel markets – including the role of certification of origin. We finish with a look at how far away we are from the first production and contracts for green ammonia.



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