Potash
Overview
The potash market has been disrupted from its traditional trade flows and typically slow-moving price cycles, affected by new entrants, new mines, military conflicts and political tensions in countries that either produce or consume some of the largest quantities of potash in the world. The need for accurate insight and data is more acute than ever.
Our extensive potash coverage includes MOP, SOP and NOP. Argus has many decades of experience covering the potash market and we incorporate our multi-commodity market expertise to provide potash price assessments, analysis and data that provides the full narrative.
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Latest potash news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global potash industry.
Fertilizer affordability weakens in 1Q24 on higher N, P
Fertilizer affordability weakens in 1Q24 on higher N, P
London, 25 March (Argus) — Global fertilizer product affordability trended lower through most of the first quarter of 2024, as crop prices slid on higher expected global supplies, while nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers remained at high levels before coming under pressure in the second half of March. The decline in nutrient affordability this quarter comes at a time when farmers start preparing for the spring fertilizer application season in the northern hemisphere. The Argus fertilizer affordability index — a global assessment calculated using the ratio between the fertilizer and crop price index — fell to the lowest quarterly average since the fourth quarter of 2022. Nutrient affordability weakened by 10 percentage points since the start of the year, to 1.03 points in March from 1.13 points in January. An affordability index above 1 indicates that fertilizers are more affordable compared with the base year, which was set in 2004, while below 1 indicates lower nutrient affordability. High urea, phosphate prices weigh on affordability The fertilizer index — which includes international prices for urea, DAP and potash adjusted by global usage — has reached the highest quarter average since 1Q23, owing to high urea and phosphate prices. Urea prices surged through the second half of January, following a bearish end to 2023, initially spurred by short-covering and fresh demand from European markets in the wake of an Indian purchase tender. Levels out of Egypt jumped by around $70/t through the month to over $400/t fob for European markets. Prices remained firm through the first half of February, supported by strong demand from Australia and Thailand, as importers warily eyed rising prices. The supply-demand balance east of Suez was also tightened by plant closures in Iran and Malaysia, as well as restrictions on Indonesian shipments prior to the elections on 14 February. But a return of urea supply east of Suez, a slowdown in buying and weaker gas prices pressured urea levels through the second half of February and into March across most markets, apart from the US, resulting in prices to weaken on the month. For phosphates, DAP/MAP prices remained high on tight supply through the first quarter, while China refrained from exporting product. Also strong demand in Australia and the US diverted cargoes away from other markets. Limited MAP supply and emerging demand encouraged suppliers to raise their offers in March in the west. Meanwhile, in the east, the imminent reopening of China is adding to expected supply, and has turned DAP markets bearish. Traders have started to short Chinese DAP with India's RCF awarding its latest buy tender at $575/t cfr — $20/t lower than the last reported cfr sale into India. But for now, prices remain far above the breakeven price of around $509/t cfr, given the reduced Indian DAP subsidy of 21,676 rupees/t for the April-September kharif season. Crop prices under pressure High fertilizer prices so far in the quarter coincided with a decline in grain prices for wheat, corn and soybeans owing to expectations of higher global supplies in the coming season. This has led to the crop price index — the key element of the affordability index — falling to its lowest point since the fourth quarter of 2020. Global wheat output is forecast to reach 799mn t in the 2024-25 season (July-June), according to the International Grains Council (IGC), up by 10mn t from the IGC's 2023-24 projection, but consumption is expected to be flat on the previous season. Global corn production is also expected to rise in 2024-25, up by 6mn t on the year to 1.233bn t in 2024-25. And global corn consumption is forecast to increase, up by 18mn t to 1.23bn t in 2024-25. Carryover corn stocks for major exporters are set to increase by 7mn t on the year to 78mn t, according to the IGC. As for soybeans, the IGC forecasts global production to rise by 23mn t to 413mn t in 2024-25 because of larger acreages and improved yields. Global consumption is projected to rise by 21mn t on the year to 404mn t, according to the IGC. The council also expects higher carryover stocks at 75mn t in 2024-25, up by 9mn t on the year. By Lili Minton, Harry Minihan and Tom Hampson Global Fertilizer Affordability Index (points) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Brazil's 2024 grain, ferts freights unusually low
Brazil's 2024 grain, ferts freights unusually low
Sao Paulo, 22 March (Argus) — The slow pace of farmer selling for Brazil's 2023-24 soybean crop and lower liquidity in the fertilizer market have contributed to lower demand for transport services in early 2024, also raising concerns about a possible logistical bottleneck. Demand to transport grains in Brazil usually peaks in the first quarter — increasing freight rates — because of the soybean crop harvest. Works in the current cycle have proceeded at a satisfactory pace, despite climatic problems brought by the El Nino weather phenomenon. The harvest in Mato Grosso state — Brazil's largest oilseed producer — reached 95.6pc of planted areas by the week ended 15 March, only 0.9 of a percentage point below the previous harvest and 0.6 of a percentage point below the five-year average for the period, according to the state's institute of agricultural economy Imea. But crop sales have been slow. Farmers in Mato Grosso sold 46.3pc of the 2023-24 soybean crop by early March, 5.9 percentage points less than in the previous crop and 19 points behind the five-year average for the period, according to Imea. Lower oilseed prices in the international market have encouraged producers to slow the pace of sales. As a result, grain freight rates during harvest time fell — which is unusual for this time of year — on lower demand for transportation services. Freight rates on the Sorriso-Rondonopolis route, bound for the rail terminal in Rondonopolis, reached R153/metric tonne ($31/t) in the first week of March, from R200/t in the same period in 2023. In the corridors towards Miritituba, in Para state, via the BR-163 highway to the waterway transshipment point, the Sorriso-Miritituba route was at R253/t in early March, from R315/t last year. The Querencia-Palmeirante route, to Tocantins state and then via rail to the port of Itaqui in Maranhao state, reached R260/t in early March, from R335/t last year. The Rondonopolis-Paranagua route, bound south, was at R338/t in the beginning of March, down from R390/t in the same period in 2023. Demand for fertilizer freights was also unusually lower in the first quarter. At this time of year, farmers typically receive large volumes of fertilizers to attend to their soybean harvest and corn planting activities. But the purchase of inputs was also delayed as farmers postponed crop sales. With lower liquidity in the nutrient market, demand for transportation services was also lower. In Paranagua, freight rates to Rondonopolis reached R234/t in early March, from R276/t in 2023. Freight costs to Sorriso stood at R318/t, from R348/t in 2023. Freight demand for routes originating in the Santos and Cubatao ports, in Sao Paulo state, and bound to Mato Grosso, was also lower. Freight rates to Sorriso reached R365/t in March, from R385/t a year earlier. Costs to Rondonopolis stood at R255/t in the period, from R280/t a year prior. In the Northern Arc, trends on routes from Sao Luis, at Itaqui, were similar. The Sao Luis-Querencia route reached R260/t, from R336/t in the same period in 2023. The Sao Luis-Porto Nacional stretch stood at R202/t, from R249/t last year. This scenario concerns market participants, as it could create a logistical bottleneck. Soybeans will need to be shipped for exports eventually. In parallel, fertilizers arriving in Brazilian ports will have to be delivered to the domestic market. That could lead to increased competition for trucks and a significant increase in freight rates, as well as longer queues at ports for loading and unloading ships, raising the logistics costs. By João Petrini Grain freight rates - Rondonopolis-Paranagua R/t Fertilizer freight rate - Sao Luis-Porto Nacional R/t Fertilizer freight rate - Paranagua-Rondonopolis R/t Grain freight rates - Sinop-Miritituba R/t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US bill would make phosphate, potash critical minerals
US bill would make phosphate, potash critical minerals
Houston, 19 March (Argus) — The US Senate on 14 March introduced a bill that would include key fertilizers phosphate and potash on the list of critical minerals by the US Department of Interior. The designation could streamline permitting for new production sites in the US by consolidating the permit process to a single agency, said industry advocacy group The Fertilizer Institute (TFI). US sanctions on Belarusian potash and US import duties on Moroccan and Russian phosphate disrupted trade flows in recent years and created supply uncertainty in US markets that contributed to volatile fertilizer prices and occasionally tight availability. "The events of the past few years have shown us that food security is national security and now is the time to change how we talk about these vital resources," TFI chief executive Corey Rosenbusch said. Both potash and phosphate fertilizers are vital to agricultural production in the US. MOP imports — a key potash fertilizer — totaled 11.8mn t in 2023, alongside key phosphate fertilizers DAP and MAP, which together accounted to 2.3mn t of deliveries to the US, according to US Census data. Russia and Belarus, two of 14 potash-producing countries, together represented more than 40pc of global production in 2023 and output of both countries is expected to grow in 2024. For phosphate rock, a necessary feedstock for phosphate fertilizer production, Morocco and China accounted for about half of global output in 2023. The US Geological Survey previously listed potash on the critical minerals list but removed it around 2022 during its last update. The Department of Energy's prior list of critical minerals in 2023 did not include potash or phosphate. Minerals are added and detracted from the list depending on their affect on national security, the economy, and role in critical infrastructure, according to Interior. Senators Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina), Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Roger Marshall (R-Kansas), Pete Ricketts (R-Nebraska), Rick Scott (R-Florida) and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisconsin) proposed the bipartisan bill, SB 3956, to the committee on Energy and Natural Resources. An analogous bill was put forth by the House on 13 June but has not received attention since then. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Intrepid to up 2024 potash output 10-15pc
Intrepid to up 2024 potash output 10-15pc
Houston, 8 March (Argus) — US fertilizer producer Intrepid Potash plans to increase its output this year by 10-15pc after seeing a large decline in 2023. Intrepid last year produced 224,000 short tons (st) of potash, down by 17pc from 2022, and during the fourth quarter of 2023 produced 79,000st, down from 25pc in the fourth quarter of 2022. The declining trend was the result of higher producing costs and lower potash prices, but the company expects the spring application season to increase demand. The failure of an extraction well in New Mexico was also attributed to the output decline and is currently being replaced. After this year's planned 10-15pc increase, the company plans an additional 10-15pc increase in 2025. "Market potash pricing has also recently stabilized at levels that are 35pc higher than the previous cycle, and we expect our sales to remain steady ahead of spring applications," said to Intrepid chief executive Robert Jornayvaz. Intrepid expects to sell 65,000-70,000st of potash in the first quarter of 2024. The producer sold 45,000st during the fourth quarter, down by 10pc from the fourth quarter in 2022, and sold 258,000st in 2023, up by 16pc from 2022. Total sales for the fourth quarter were $56.7mn, down from $66.7mn a year earlier. Full year 2023 sales were $279.1mn, down from $337.6mn a year earlier. Intrepid posted a net loss of $37.3mn for the fourth quarter, compared with a net profit of $4mn a year earlier. Capital expenditures for 2023 were on the lower end of Intrepid's guidance at $65.1mn while 2024 spending guidance will range from $40mn-50mn. The slowdown in spending will be a result of the company focusing to complete projects such as the HB Solution Mine and the Intrepid South sand project in New Mexico and the Brine Recovery Mine in Utah. "Our growth capital is focused on improving the production rates at our solar solution potash assets, which on a combined basis, have had a declining production profile since 2017," the company said. By Taylor Zavala Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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