Viewpoint: Trade disputes threaten US ethanol exports

  • : Biofuels, Oil products
  • 18/07/20

Escalating trade disputes threaten to disrupt US ethanol exports, even as lower corn prices strengthen profit margins.

US ethanol producers have become increasingly reliant on rising export demand to maintain growth as domestic demand has plateaued. Domestic ethanol consumption is not expected to increase in 2018 compared to 2017 levels, according to the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Consumption is forecast to rise by 10,000 b/d to 950,000 b/d in 2019.

Shipments in the first five months of 2018 have risen nearly 30pc when compared to the same period in 2017, according to US Department of Agriculture (USDA) data. Export growth is likely to be stifled in the second half of 2018 amid ongoing changes to US trade policy and threats of retaliatory measures from global trading partners.

China increased tariffs on ethanol imports from the US by an additional 25pc to 70pc in June, which effectively ended further shipments to the country.

Brazil, the largest foreign consumer of the US blendstock, has considered eliminating an exemption for the first 2,600 b/d of imports each quarter from a 20pc tariff in response to US tariffs on steel and aluminum.

US exporters have sought new outlets amid a wave of protectionist policies. Exports to South Korea in 2018 have risen by 84pc year-to-date compared to the year prior.

In India, the government has reduced a tax on goods and services on ethanol to boost blending and meet a state mandate of 10pc blending. Exports to the country have fallen by 42pc year to date compared to 2017.

A Mexican court has lifted a restriction on blending gasoline with 10pc ethanol on most of the county. The three largest cities have been excluded from the ruling but ethanol exports to the country have grown 15pc year to date.

It is unclear whether exports will rise in the short-run amid lack of market penetration.

Rail logistical issues have added further complications to exporting ethanol as biofuel shippers have seen prices in the northeast increase nearly 5pc since 25 June. Market participants have complained of slow turnaround times and railcar shortages at production facilities. Already-congested terminals have had to deal with longer trains as major railroads seek to cut costs.

It is not clear if rail issues will be resolved in the short-run as the rail industry enters peak demand season this autumn.

Chinese tariffs on US corn have provided some relief to ethanol producers as the ethanol crush spread margin has risen by 26¢/bushel since the announcement on 16 June of a 25pc levy by the Chinese government, which took effect on 6 July. Ethanol production margins reached the highest level since November 2017 at 62¢/bushel, and margins averaged 60¢/USG in 2017.


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24/05/20

Q&A:Shipping needs cultural shift to decarbonise: Total

Q&A:Shipping needs cultural shift to decarbonise: Total

Amsterdam, 20 May (Argus) — A cultural change in buying behaviour and supply patterns is necessary for the shipping sector to meet its decarbonisation targets and may be the biggest hurdle to overcome, strategy and projects director for TotalEnergies' marine fuels division Frederic Meyer told Argus. Edited highlights follow: What is the biggest challenge standing in the way of the maritime industry in meeting decarbonisation targets and the fuel transition ? A cultural change is required — for decades the maritime sector has relied on by-products with high energy density from the crude refining process such as fuel oil. The industry will now have to pivot its attention towards fuels developed for the purpose of consumption within the maritime industry. This will also require time as the sector looks to level up, and it remains to be seen whether there will be enough time to meet the International Maritime Organisation (IMO)'s net-zero by or around 2050 targets. But we have seen some good progress from cargo owners who are seeking scope 3 emissions related documents. How does TotalEnergies see marine biodiesel demand moving in the short term? In the short term, there is little incentive for the majority of buyers in the market. This is due to a lack of any regulatory mandates, as well as limited impact from existing regulations such as the IMO's carbon intensity indicator (CII) and the EU's Emissions Trading System (ETS). Despite providing a zero emission factor incentive for biofuels meeting the sustainability criteria under the EU's Renewable Energy Directive (RED), EU ETS is still on a staggered implementation basis beginning with only 40pc this year, rising to 70pc next year and 100pc in 2026. Further, EU ETS prices have been quite low, which also weighed on financial incentives for marine biodiesel. Therefore, many buyers are currently waiting for further incentives and signals from the regulators before purchasing marine biodiesel blends. Another point impacting demand is the current edition of ISO 8217, which does not provide much flexibility when it comes to marine biodiesel blend percentages and specifications. The new 2024 edition will likely provide greater flexibility for blending percentages, as well as a provision for biodiesel that does not meet EN14214 specifications. This will provide greater flexibility from a supply point of view. However, there remains stable demand from buyers who can pass on the extra costs to their customers. And how do you see this demand fluctuating in the medium to long term? If the other alternative marine fuels, such as ammonia and methanol, that are currently being discussed do not develop at the speed necessary to meet the decarbonisation targets, then marine biodiesel demand will likely be firm. Many in the market have voiced concerns regarding biofuel feedstock competition between marine and aviation, ahead of the implementation of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandates in Europe starting next year. With Argus assessments for SAF at much higher levels than marine biodiesel blends, do you think common feedstocks such as used cooking oil (UCO) will get pulled away from maritime and into aviation? With regards to competition among different industries for the same biofuel feedstock, suppliers may channel their feedstock towards aviation fuels due to the higher non-compliance penalties associated with SAF regulations as opposed to those in marine, which would incentivise greater demand for SAF. An area that can be explored for marine is the by-product when producing SAF, which can amount to up to 30pc of the fuel output. This could potentially feed into a marine biodiesel supply pool. So it's not necessarily the case that the two sectors will battle over the same feedstock if process synergies can be found. Regarding fuel specifications, market participants have told Argus that the lack of a marine-specific fuel standard for alternatives such as marine biodiesel is feeding into uncertainty for buyers who may not be as familiar with biofuels. What impact could this have on demand for marine biodiesel blends from your point of view? Currently, mainstream biodiesel specifications in marine biodiesel blends are derived from other markets such as the EN14214 specification from road diesel engines. But given the large flexibility of a marine engine, there is room to test and try different things. For "unconventional" biofuels that do not meet those road specifications, there needs to be a testing process accompanied by proof of results that showcase its safety for combustion within a marine engine. Some companies may not have the means or capacity to test their biodiesel before taking it into the market. But TotalEnergies always ensures that there are no engine-related issues from fuel combustion. Suppliers need to enact the necessary testing and take on the burden, as cutting out this process may create a negative perception for the product more generally. Traders should also take on some of the burden and test their fuels to ensure they are fully compatible with the engine. With many regulations being discussed, how do you see the risk of regulatory clashes impacting the industry? The simple solution would be an electronic register to trace the chain of custody. In the French markets, often times the proof of sustainability (PoS) papers are stored onto an electronic database once they are retired to the relevant authority. This database is then accessible and viewable by the buyer, and the supplier could also further deliver a "sustainability information letter" which mirrors the details found in the PoS. It is important for the maritime sector to adopt an electronically traceable system. What role could other types of fuels such as pyrolysis oil potentially play in the maritime sector's decarbonisation targets? We have teams in research and development at TotalEnergies which are studying the potential use of other molecules, including but not limited to pyrolysis oil, for usage in the maritime sector. It may become an alternative option to avoid industry clashes, as pyrolysis oil would not be an attractive option to the aviation sector. We are currently exploring tyre-based pyrolysis oil, but have only started doing so recently so it remains an untapped resource. We need to figure out the correct purification and distillation process to ensure compatibility with marine engines. For the time being we are specifically looking at tyre-based pyrolysis oil and not plastic-based, but we may look at the latter in a later stage. The fuel would also have to meet the RED criteria of a 65-70pc greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction compared with conventional fossil fuels, so we are still exploring whether this can be achieved. By Hussein Al-Khalisy Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Houston refiners weather hurricane-force winds: Update


24/05/17
24/05/17

Houston refiners weather hurricane-force winds: Update

Adds Calcasieu comment, update on flaring reporting Houston, 17 May (Argus) — Over 2mn b/d of US refining capacity faced destructive winds Thursday evening as a major storm blew through Houston, Texas, but the damage reported so far has been minimal. Wind speeds of up to 78 mph were recorded in northeast Houston and the Houston Ship Channel — home to five refineries with a combined 1.5mn b/d of capacity — faced winds up to 74 mph, according to the National Weather Service . Further South in Galveston Bay, where Valero and Marathon Petroleum refineries total 818,000 b/d of capacity, max wind speeds of 51 mph were recorded. Chevron's 112,000 b/d Pasadena refinery on the Ship Channel just east of downtown Houston sustained minor damage during the storm and continues to supply customers, the company said. ExxonMobil's 564,000 b/d Baytown refinery on the Ship Channel and 369,000 b/d Beaumont, Texas, refinery further east faced no significant impact from the storm and the company continues to supply customers, a spokesperson told Argus . Neither Phillips 66's 265,000 b/d Sweeny refinery southwest of Houston nor its 264,000 b/d Lake Charles refinery 140 miles east in Louisiana were affected by the storm, a spokesperson said. There was no damage at Motiva's 626,000 b/d Port Arthur, Texas, refinery according to the company. Calcasieu's 136,000 b/d refinery in Lake Charles, Louisiana, was unaffected by the storm and operations are normal, the refiner said. Marathon Petroleum declined to comment on operations at its 593,000 b/d Galveston Bay refinery. Valero, LyondellBasell, Pemex, Total and Citgo did not immediately respond to requests for comment on operations at their refineries in the Houston area, Port Arthur and Lake Charles. A roughly eight-mile portion of the Houston Ship Channel from the Sidney Sherman Bridge to Greens Bayou closed from 9pm ET 16 May to 1am ET today when two ships brokeaway from their moorings, and officials looked in a potential fuel oil spill, according to the US Coast Guard. The portion that closed provides access to Valero's 215,000 b/d Houston refinery, LyondellBasell's 264,000 b/d Houston refinery and Chevron's Pasadena refinery. Emissions filings with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) are yet to indicate the extent of any flaring and disruption to operations in the Houston area Thursday evening, but will likely be reported later Friday and over the weekend. Gulf coast refiners ran their plants at average utilization rates of 93pc in the week ended 10 May, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), up by two percentage points from the prior week as the industry heads into the late-May Memorial Day weekend and beginning of peak summer driving season. The next EIA data release on 22 May will likely reveal any dip in Gulf coast refinery throughputs resulting from the storm. By Nathan Risser Houston area refineries Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul reallocates gas supply


24/05/17
24/05/17

Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul reallocates gas supply

Sao Paulo, 17 May (Argus) — Natural gas supply in Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul had to be redistributed because of the historic floods in the state, with diesel potentially making its way back as an power plant fuel to leave more gas available for LPG production. Gasbol, the natural gas transportation pipeline that supplies Brazil's south, does not have capacity to meet demand from the 201,000 b/d Alberto Pasqualini refinery (Refap), state-controlled Petrobras' Canoas thermal power plant and natural gas distributors in the region, according to Petrobras' then-chief executive Jean Paul Prates said earlier this week. The Santa Catarina state gas distributor has adjusted its own local network to meet peak demand in neighboring Rio Grande do Sul via the pipeline transportation network. The Canoas thermal plant is running at its minimum generation at 150GW, with 61pc coming from its gas turbine. The plant was brought on line to reinstate proper power supply after transmission lines in the south were affected by the floods. Petrobras plans to use a diesel engine to increase power generation. The current approved fuel cost (CVU) for diesel in the Canoas plant is of R1,115.29/MWh. Petrobras is also operating Refap at 59pc of its maximum installed capacity, at 119,506 b/d. Heavy showers in Rio Grande do Sul since 29 April brought unprecedented flooding to the state, causing a humanitarian crisis and infrastructure damage. The extreme weather has left 154 people dead, 98 missing and over 540,000 people displaced, according to the state's civil defense. By Rebecca Gompertz Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Houston area refiners weather hurricane-force winds


24/05/17
24/05/17

Houston area refiners weather hurricane-force winds

Houston, 17 May (Argus) — Over 2mn b/d of US refining capacity faced destructive winds Thursday evening as a major storm blew through Houston, Texas, but the damage reported so far has been minimal. Wind speeds of up to 78 Mph were recorded in northeast Houston and the Houston Ship Channel — home to five refineries with a combined 1.5mn b/d of capacity — faced winds up to 74 Mph, according to the National Weather Service . Further South in Galveston Bay, where Valero and Marathon Petroleum refineries total 818,000 b/d of capacity, max wind speeds of 51 Mph were recorded. Chevron's 112,000 b/d Pasadena refinery on the Ship Channel just east of downtown Houston sustained minor damage during the storm and continues to supply customers, the company said. ExxonMobil's 564,000 b/d Baytown refinery on the Ship Channel and 369,000 b/d Beaumont, Texas, refinery further east faced no significant impact from the storm and the company continues to supply customers, a spokesperson told Argus . Neither Phillips 66's 265,000 b/d Sweeny refinery southwest of Houston nor its 264,000 b/d Lake Charles refinery 140 miles east in Louisiana were affected by the storm, a spokesperson said. There was no damage at Motiva's 626,000 b/d Port Arthur, Texas, refinery according to the company. Marathon Petroleum declined to comment on operations at its 593,000 b/d Galveston Bay refinery. Valero, LyondellBasell, Pemex, Total, Calcasieu and Citgo did not immediately respond to requests for comment on operations at their refineries in the Houston area, Port Arthur and Lake Charles. A roughly eight-mile portion of the Houston Ship Channel from the Sidney Sherman Bridge to Greens Bayou closed from 9pm ET 16 May to 1am ET today when two ships brokeaway from their moorings, and officials looked in a potential fuel oil spill, according to the US Coast Guard. The portion that closed provides access to Valero's 215,000 b/d Houston refinery, LyondellBasell's 264,000 b/d Houston refinery and Chevron's Pasadena refinery. By Nathan Risser Houston area refineries Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Texas barge collision shuts GIWW section: Correction


24/05/16
24/05/16

Texas barge collision shuts GIWW section: Correction

Corrects volume of oil carried by barge in fourth paragraph. Houston, 16 May (Argus) — Authorities closed a six-mile section of the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway (GIWW) near Galveston, Texas, because of an oil spill caused by a barge collision with the Pelican Island causeway bridge. The section between mile markers 351.5 and 357.5 along the waterway closed, according to the US Coast Guard. A barge broke away from the Philip George tugboat and hit the bridge between Pelican Island and Galveston around 11am ET today. Concrete from the bridge fell onto the barge and triggered an oil leak. The barge can hold up to 30,000 bl oil, but it was unknown how full the barge was before the crash, Galveston County county judge Mark Henry said. It was unclear when the waterway would reopen. An environmental cleanup crew was on the scene along with the US Coast Guard and Texas Department of Transportation to assess the damage. Multiple state agencies have debated the replacement of the 64-year-old bridge for several years, Henry said. The rail line alongside the bridge collapsed. Marine traffic does not pass under the bridge. By Meghan Yoyotte Intracoastal Waterway at Galveston Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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