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Iraq denies Opec exit reports, seeks higher output cap

Iraq denies Opec exit reports, seeks higher output cap

Dubai, 25 June (Argus) — Iraq's oil ministry on Thursday denied reports that Baghdad had considered leaving Opec, saying claims of a possible withdrawal "do not reflect the official position" of the government. Neither prime minister Ali al-Zaidi nor the government had proposed leaving, the ministry said. The clarification follows reports claiming Iraq had weighed exiting the group and is keeping all available options open if its crude production quota is not raised significantly. In response, the ministry said Iraq continues to advocate a reassessment of production ceilings within the framework agreed by Opec and its allies in the wider Opec+ alliance, to better reflect members' sustainable production capacity. It said the assessment should take account of Iraq's security and economic circumstances. The ministry was referring to the agreed independent maximum sustainable capacity assessment process within Opec+, which is designed to recalibrate production baselines from 2027 onwards. The assessment process is underway, Iraq is taking part and it is being conducted by an independent US consulting firm according to the agreed timetable, the ministry said. While the review will shape baselines and quotas from next year, Iraq's production target has been steadily rising this year as Opec+ restores previously curtailed output. The alliance "expects all voluntary cuts to be fully unwound over the coming months", the ministry said. Seven core Opec+ members agreed on 8 June to another 188,000 b/d increase in their collective production target for July, despite conflict in the Middle East continuing to disrupt supplies from several of the group's biggest producers. The increase is part of a wider process to unwind 1.65mn b/d of previous production cuts. As part of that process, Iraq's production target has risen to 4.35mn b/d for June and 4.38mn b/d for July. But the higher targets do not yet mean higher Iraqi output. The country remained well below its Opec+ target in May after the US-Israel war on Iran disrupted exports through the strait of Hormuz and forced Mideast Gulf producers to rein in output. Iraq produced just 1.55mn b/d in May, compared with a target of 4.33mn b/d, according to Argus estimates. Baghdad reiterated that future discussions over production ceilings and sustainable capacity would continue through the alliance's established technical and consensus-based mechanisms. Long-running campaign The ministry's statement reinforces a position successive Iraqi governments have advanced for several years. Former prime minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani repeatedly argued that Iraq's production quota should better reflect the country's reserves, production capacity, population and reconstruction needs. Before taking office in October 2022, al-Sudani criticised Opec+ production agreements as unfavourable to Iraq and pledged to seek a review of the country's allocation if appointed prime minister. He continued pressing that case while in office, most recently calling in October last year for a formal review of Iraq's production quota after arguing the country's existing allocation no longer reflected its resource base or development requirements. Iraqi officials contend the country's reserves, production potential and reconstruction needs justify a greater role within the alliance over the longer term. The UAE's exit from Opec earlier this year is seen in Baghdad as an opportunity to advance that goal, Argus understands. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2026. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.