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US recalls workers from furlough for oil, gas work

  • : Crude oil, Natural gas
  • 19/01/15

President Donald Trump's administration is bringing employees it sent home for the government shutdown back to work to prepare for offshore lease sales and to open new waters to drilling.

The US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), in an revised contingency plan, says it is taking 40 workers off furlough to conduct lease sales, issue permits for seismic surveys and take the next step toward finishing a plan that would open more than 90pc of federal waters to oil and gas development.

The decision represents the latest effort by the Trump administration to avoid slowing down its energy agenda during a partial government shutdown in its 24th day. The US Bureau of Land Management has continued to process oil and gas drilling permits and hold meetings to open land in Alaska to oil and gas development.

That approach has raised red flags for environmentalists who say the administration is crossing the line on what activities can continue without appropriations from the US Congress. But it has softened the shutdown's effect on oil and gas companies hoping to gain a foothold in new federal areas before the end of the first term of the Trump administration.

BOEM in its contingency plan cited the need to achieve the administration's "America First energy strategy" to justify why it has exempted staff to work on offshore leasing plan that would open nearly all federal waters to drilling. It says 10 employees will work on the next step in that plan, which was expected in mid-January.

BOEM said it would designate more workers as exempt after today to complete work for an oil and gas lease sale in the US Gulf of Mexico scheduled in March. The agency said failure to hold that sale, and to prepare for another lease sale later this year, would have a "negative impact" on government revenues and negatively affect investment in the Gulf.

BOEM is also exempting staff to process permits required to conduct seismic oil and gas surveys in the US Atlantic. The administration already took a preliminary step to approve permits for five companies last year, by authorizing the "incidental harassment" of marine mammals, but surveys cannot begin until regulators issue an additional permit.

The shutdown has not spared the oil and gas industry entirely. The lapse in appropriations halted work needed to approve projects such as some pipelines. A continued shutdown could also delay environmental impact statements (EIS) required to build LNG export facilities, said Center for LNG executive director Charlie Riedl.

"If this thing drags on, you could see an EIS schedule slide because of that," he said.

The administration last week delayed meetings on a plan to allow oil and gas leasing in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. It also canceled a 31 January meeting of its Royalty Policy Committee, which is advising the US Interior Department on revisions to oil and gas policies on federal land.


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24/10/15

IEA points to oil stocks in case of supply disruption

IEA points to oil stocks in case of supply disruption

London, 15 October (Argus) — The world can draw on global oil stocks and rely on Opec+ spare production capacity in case of a supply disruption erupting from the conflict between Iran and Israel, the IEA said today. In its latest Oil Market Report , the Paris-based watchdog said it was "ready to act if necessary." It said IEA public stocks alone stood at over 1.2bn bl in addition to 500mn bl held under industry obligations. The IEA also said non-member China held 1.1bn bl of crude stocks, enough to meet 75 days of domestic refinery runs. The IEA co-ordinated two emergency stock releases in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. The world's reliance on stocks would become more pronounced if any supply disruption extended beyond Iran's oil industry to include flows through the Strait of Hormuz. This would threaten most Opec+ spare production capacity of more than 5mn b/d as members such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE are highly reliant on the waterway to export their oil. But as long as supply keeps flowing, the IEA said that the market faces a "sizeable surplus" next year. The agency's latest balances show a supply surplus of 1.11mn b/d in 2025, up by 50,000 b/d compared with its estimates last month. For this year, the agency now sees a slight surplus of 90,000 b/d, compared with a slight deficit last month. In the final quarter of this year, the IEA sees a surplus of around 200,000 b/d. Concerns over the strength of oil demand have been rising in recent months, with the IEA once again trimming its oil consumption forecast for this year. The IEA cut its 2024 global oil demand growth forecast by another 40,000 b/d this month to 860,000 b/d, with China once again the main driver. A slowdown in China's economy remains the key drag on oil consumption growth. The IEA sees China's oil demand this year increasing by 150,000 b/d compared with 180,000 b/d in its report last month. At the start of the year the agency was guiding for growth of 710,000 b/d from China. The IEA also downgraded its estimated growth from China for next year to 220,000 b/d from 260,000 b/d last month, despite the country's recently announced stimulus packages. For next year, the agency sees oil demand growth slightly higher at 1mn b/d, up by 40,000 b/d from last month's report. But growth for both 2024 and 2025 is set to remain well below 2023's post-pandemic surge in growth of just under 2mn b/d. On global supply, the IEA kept its growth estimate broadly unchanged at 660,000 b/d. But it expects global growth to be just above 2mn b/d next year even if all Opec+ cuts are maintained. Some members of Opec+ are due to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of voluntary cuts starting in December — although this is dependent on market conditions. The IEA said that the 500,000 b/d fall in Opec+ crude production in September — led by Libya — could make it easier for the alliance to implement its plan to raise output, although healthy non-Opec+ supply growth next year will remain a concern. The agency said global observed oil stocks declined by 22.3mn bl in August, led by a 16.5mn bl draw on crude. It also said preliminary data showed stocks fell further in September. By Aydin Calik Global oil supply/demand balance mn b/d Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Guyana crudes pressured by end of Libya blockade, TMX


24/10/14
24/10/14

Guyana crudes pressured by end of Libya blockade, TMX

Houston, 14 October (Argus) — The restoration of Libyan crude production and an influx of heavy-sour Canadian grades to the US west coast has pressured light sweet Guyana crudes to their widest differential against Argus North Sea Dated since the assessments launched in February. Values for Guyana crudes Liza, Unity Gold and Payara Gold fell by 20-80¢/bl last week as offer levels fell swiftly. Liza reached a $1.20/bl discount against North Sea Dated, Unity Gold fell to a 35¢/bl discount and Payara Gold a 33¢/bl discount. Liza and Unity Gold fell to their lowest value since Argus began to assess the grades, while Payara Gold fell to its lowest level since mid-March. European refiners had turned toward Guyana after the 26 August start of the Libyan oil blockade , with imports rising by around 200,000 b/d to almost 456,000 b/d in September, according to data analytics firm Vortexa, reflecting the highest flows on that route since March. Libya has since recovered to more than 1mn b/d of production after the country's oil blockade ended on 3 October, according to data from state-owned oil company NOC published last week. Output in September was less than half of pre-blockade levels, with Libya's crude exports down to 460,000 b/d in that month compared with 1.02mn b/d in August, according to Kpler data. Projected October Guyana exports to Europe are 205,000 b/d lower than September at only 193,000 b/d, Vortexa data shows. TMX takeover Guyana prices also could be under pressure from added competition on the Americas Pacific coast from crude exported via the 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline. In May, before the startup of TMX, Guyanese exports to the US totaled 68,000 b/d, data from Vortexa shows. Refiners did not purchase any Guyanese grades in June and August, and imports in July and September were more than halved from May levels at 32,000 b/d and 29,000 b/d, respectively. Vortexa estimates October deliveries will only amount to less than 29,000 b/d, a 57pc decrease since the start of TMX. TMX has quickly become a valuable crude source to US west coast refiners, displacing many Latin American grades in the process. Ecuadorean crude imports have trended lower since May, and were down by 30pc from June-September compared to a year earlier. Crude volumes arriving at Panama's PTP pipeline from Colombia — a common way US west coast refiners receive Colombian crude — have also trended lower since July. September crude receipts of Colombian grades into Panama have fallen from 173,000 b/d in July to 50,000 b/d in September. By Rachel McGuire and Joao Scheller Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Permian producers face new headwinds


24/10/14
24/10/14

Permian producers face new headwinds

London, 14 October (Argus) — Growing associated gas production and rising breakeven prices for new oil wells are creating fresh challenges for Permian producers. Oil output in the Permian basin in Texas and New Mexico is growing more slowly than expected. The EIA revised down forecasts for 2024 Permian production in this month's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) following changes to historical output data. Permian production is now forecast to rise by 6.1pc this year and 3.6pc next, down from 7.8pc and 3.9pc, respectively, a month ago. Activity in the Permian oil and gas sector edged down in the third quarter, firms participating in the Dallas Fed Energy Survey say. Low Waha natural gas trading hub prices prompted about a third of 23 active exploration and production (E&P) firms to curtail production, and another third to either delay and defer drilling or well completions. Permian gas prices were negative — meaning that sellers pay buyers to take gas — for most of the six months before early September, as associated gas production exceeded pipeline capacity to move it to market. But Waha prices turned positive again last month as gas began to flow out of the region along the new Matterhorn Express pipeline. Deliveries on the 2.5bn cf/d (25bn m³/yr) Matterhorn pipeline have averaged about 600mn cf/d this month, Gelber & Associates analysts say. Flows are expected to ramp up to full capacity before the end of 2024, but robust associated gas production in the Permian remains a constant factor. The Permian basin now accounts for around a fifth of US natural gas production and is the fastest-growing source of new supply, as rising oil output adds increasing volumes of associated gas (see graph). The GOR — the average ratio of gas output ('000 cf) to oil production (bl) — in the Permian has increased from around 2 to over 3.5 since 2012, data from analysts Novi Labs show. The GOR for Permian wells typically rises during the life of a well. The GOR for Midland wells trebles from 1 to 3 after five years of production and nearly doubles for Delaware wells from just over 2 to just over 4. So the GOR inevitably rises as the share of legacy wells in overall output grows. Tiers for fears Firms are also using up the better drilling locations. Shale is not a uniform resource. Despite impressive advances in productivity over the past decade, rock quality remains the most important driver of well performance. Operators target high-quality (tier 1) wells first if they can, leaving lower-quality tier 2–4 wells for later, hoping that improvements in drilling and completion technology and efficiency will offset poorer yields. Less than two-fifths of the 25,000 drilling sites estimated to remain in the Midland basin offer a breakeven below $60/bl over a two-year period, according to a new assessment by Novi Labs using detailed rock quality data and incorporating the impact of infill well spacing patterns (see graph). Results reflect huge geologic variation within the basin and yield a weighted-average breakeven of $74/bl for the potential inventory of undrilled Midland wells. "Average tier 1 rock breaks even on average at $60/bl, but that number for tier 4 rises to $96/bl," Novi's Ted Cross says. For comparison, breakeven WTI prices for drilling a new oil well in the Midland basin ranged from $40-85/bl and averaged $62/bl, according to 87 E&P firms surveyed by the Dallas Fed in March (see graph). Over the past five years, average breakeven prices for new Midland oil wells from the Dallas Fed Energy Survey increased by a just over a third from $46/bl. In 2020, Midland breakeven prices ranged from $30-60/bl. Midland basin remaining well locations Permian oil and gas production Breakeven prices for new wells survey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec again lowers oil demand growth forecasts


24/10/14
24/10/14

Opec again lowers oil demand growth forecasts

London, 14 October (Argus) — Opec has cut its global oil demand growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 for a third month in a row, bringing its projections slightly closer to other outlooks that have long seen much lower consumption. In its latest Monthly Oil Market Repor t (MOMR) the producer group revised down its 2024 demand growth projection by 110,000 b/d to 1.93mn b/d, driven by China and the Middle East. This is 320,000 b/d lower than the 2.25mn b/d growth Opec had been forecasting until it made its first downward revision for 2024 in August. The biggest reason for the latest downgrade was China, where Opec now sees demand growing by 580,000 b/d in 2024 compared with 650,000 b/d in its previous report. But Opec's demand growth forecasts remain bullish when compared with other outlooks. The IEA projects oil demand will increase by 900,000 b/d in 2024, while the EIA sees growth of 920,000 b/d. The story is similar for 2025. While Opec today lowered its oil demand growth forecast by 100,000 b/d to 1.64mn b/d, this is still much higher than the IEA's forecast of 950,000 b/d and the EIA's 1.29mn b/d. Expectations of weaker demand this year dragged on oil prices in recent weeks. Front-month Ice Brent crude futures prices fell to the lowest this year on 10 September at $69.19/bl, although rising tensions in the Middle East have more recently pushed the price closer to $80/bl. On the supply side, the group kept its non-Opec+ liquids growth estimate for 2024 unchanged at 1.23mn b/d. It nudged up its forecast for next year by 10,000 b/d to 1.11mn b/d. Opec+ crude production — including Mexico — fell by 557,000 b/d to 40.104mn b/d in September, according to an average of secondary sources that includes Argus . This is about 2.7mn b/d below Opec's projected call on Opec+ crude for this year, which stands at 42.8mn b/d. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Feds probing fatal Pemex Deer Park accident


24/10/11
24/10/11

Feds probing fatal Pemex Deer Park accident

Houston, 11 October (Argus) — The US Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board (CSB) and Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) are both launching independent investigations into this week's fatal accident at Pemex's 312,500 b/d Deer Park, Texas, refinery. A hydrogen sulfide (H2S) release that killed two workers and injured dozens more occurred on Thursday evening at the plant located near Houston. It also led to shelter-in-place orders for surrounding communities, which have since been lifted. The CSB will investigate the causes of the fatal release, the agency said Friday. The CSB is responsible for investigating industrial accidents in the US, such as the deadly 2022 explosion at BP's Toledo refinery in Ohio and a probe into operations at Marathon's Martinez renewable diesel plant after several fires earlier this year . A representative for CSB was not immediately available for comment. OSHA — charged with enforcing compliance with federal workplace safety laws — is also investigating the incident, and has "up to six months" to complete the investigation, according to an OSHA representative. OSHA would not stop company operations during the duration of the investigation, but "could not speak for other agencies at the site," an OSHA official told Argus. The Harris County Sheriff's department has also opened an investigation into the incident. The release occurred as workers began planned maintenance on a unit. An H2S leak was detected, resulting in several units being shut down as staff sought to secure the leak. The Deer Park refinery had previously been damaged in a February 2023 fire, resulting in two weeks of repairs. A slew of accidents at Deer Park and several other Mexican state-owned Pemex's refineries in part led Fitch Ratings to downgrade Pemex's credit rating in July 2023 . By Gordon Pollock Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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