Alcoa cuts Al demand forecast again

: Metals
19/07/18

US-based smelter Alcoa has cut back its aluminum demand forecast for a second time this year amid "trade tensions and macroeconomic headwinds."

The company revised its expectations for 2019 global aluminum growth to 1.25-2.25pc in its second quarter earnings report, down from a previous estimate of 2-3pc growth in demand.

Factors inside and outside China contributed to the more modest expectations.

In the first quarter, it revised 2019 growth projections to 2-3pc growth from 3-4pc growth.

Alcoa's forecast for the 2019 deficit between aluminum production and consumption was also reduced again, narrowing to 1mn-1.4mn metric tonnes (t) from a first quarter estimate for a shortfall of 1.5mn-1.9mn t.

Still, the company said that it expects global inventories of primary aluminum, measured in days, "to reach levels not seen in more than a decade, since before the global financial crisis," by the end of the year.

Alcoa's predictions for its own 2019 shipments of primary aluminum were steady at 2.8mn-2.9mn t.

Second-quarter shipments of primary aluminum slid by 15pc to 724,000t from a year earlier, partially reflecting the curtailment of two Spanish smelters in Avilés and La Coruña in February.

The company is in the process of trying to sell the facilities to Parter Capital Group and expects to record charges ranging from $100mn-140mn in the third quarter, relating to the restructuring.

Alcoa's most recent cost-cutting initiative occured in June, when it announced it was divesting itself of a stake in the Saudi Arabia-based Ma'aden Rolling Company (MRC) joint venture. The company will remain invested in the industrial cluster's primary aluminum, bauxite and alumina operations though.

Second-quarter revenue fell by 24pc to $2.7bn from a year earlier, driven mostly by lower alumina and aluminum revenues.

Realized aluminum prices dropped by 17pc to $2,167/t in the second quarter from a year earlier, while realized alumina pricing fell by 19pc to $376/t over the same period.

The company posted a loss of $402mn for the quarter, compared with a $10mn profit in same quarter a year earlier. A $319mn charge related to the divestiture of future obligations to MRC joint venture was the largest contributor to the loss.

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25/12/19

Viewpoint: Indonesia’s MHP surge to hit nickel prices

Singapore, 19 December (Argus) — Indonesia is likely to expand its mixed-hydroxide-precipitate (MHP) plant capacity further in 2026, supported by record-high cobalt prices and strong production economics, a move that could deepen nickel oversupply and weigh on prices. Current output Indonesia's MHP output is projected to reach 482,000t in nickel metal equivalent this year — almost a 50pc rise from 2024, according to Argus estimates. Argus -assessed 37pc nickel payable MHP prices have fallen by 2.6pc on the year to $127.40/metric tonne unit (mtu) so far in 2025, while Class 1 nickel prices have dipped from $17,000/t to around $15,350/t over the same period. Nickel prices will likely remain depressed in the low-$15,000s/t range in 2026 because supply expansion is outpacing demand growth. Demand has slowed as the electric vehicle (EV) market growth has cooled in recent years, with annual growth in global EV car sales slowing from 26pc in 2024 to 23pc in 2025. Nickel demand growth could also face further headwinds from increasing competition from other battery types such as nickel-free lithium-iron-phosphate and high-manganese chemistries. This could increase the nickel surplus, further weighing down on overall nickel prices. Indonesia has consolidated its position as the leading global MHP supplier after most Western plants halted operations in late 2023. The country currently hosts around 10 operating MHP projects with a combined designed capacity of about 440,000 t/yr of nickel. Most projects are owned by Chinese giants Ningbo Lygend, Green Eco-Manufacture (GEM), and Huayou, in collaboration with local producers Merdeka, Harita Nickel, and PT Vale Indonesia (PTVI). MHP capacity expansion More MHP projects are expected in the near-term, bolstered by elevated cobalt prices, as MHP typically contains 2-5pc of cobalt. Refineries have been seeking cobalt alternatives because of constrained supply following export restrictions imposed by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) since February. Indonesia's cobalt feedstock capacity is projected to hit around 65,000 t/yr in 2026, while global cobalt supply is expected to hit 210,000t over the same period, according to Argus data. The lucrativeness of MHP in comparison with other nickel products, such as nickel pig iron (NPI), is another driver for investment. MHP production cost: $10,500–11,000/t (December estimate) Processing cost to convert MHP into nickel metal: $3,000–3,500/t Total cost for MHP to nickel metal: $13,500–14,500/t NPI to nickel metal cost: $14,000–14,500/t Additionally, cobalt by-product sales (around $2,000/t) help offset MHP production costs, effectively reducing net costs to $11,500–12,500/t, making MHP more lucrative than NPI. Outlook Concerns are mounting that rapid expansion of Indonesia's MHP capacity will further pressure on nickel prices. Argus forecasts Indonesia's MHP capacity to nearly double on the year to 862,000 t/yr in 2026, as several HPAL projects are scheduled to be commissioned in 2026. While not all capacity will translate into production, any additional output will add to an already oversupplied market, intensifying the glut. The overall nickel surplus is estimated at 212,000t in 2025 and is projected to reach 288,000t in 2026, according to Argus data. Indonesia has tightened its efforts to regulate nickel pricing and oversupply this year, reverting the validity period for RKAB mining quotas to one year. The government also suspended some nickel mines due to a lack of reclamation and post-mining guarantees, while lands were seized from Weda Bay Nickel and Tonia Mitra Sejahtera for lacking forestry permits. These policy changes have yet to significantly impact nickel prices, but remain critical factors that could disrupt supply and influence the price outlook. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US inflation slows to 2.7pc in November

25/12/18

US inflation slows to 2.7pc in November

Houston, 18 December (Argus) — US inflation unexpectedly slowed in November, according to the government's first monthly report following a federal shutdown that led to no data reported for October. The consumer price index (CPI) in November rose by 2.7pc from a year earlier, the smallest gain since July and down from 3pc in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Thursday. The BLS did not collect survey data for October due to a lapse in appropriations because of the 43-day federal government shutdown that ended on 12 November. President Donald Trump sacked the BLS director in August after labor market revisions revealed unexpected job losses in prior months. "November's CPI data have to be treated cautiously, given that CPI data collection resumed only on the 14th after the end of the shutdown," Pantheon Macroeconomics said in a note after the report. CME's FedWatch tool after the report showed a 26.6pc chance the Federal Reserve will cut its target rate in January, up from 24.4pc on Wednesday. The Fed last week cut its target rate by a quarter point, the third such reduction this year, and penciled in only one such cut next year and in 2027. So called core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy, slowed to a 2.6pc annual pace in November from 3pc in September. Services less energy services, a measure of core services inflation, rose by 3pc in November compared with a 3.5pc gain in September. The energy index rose by 4.2pc on the year, up from a 2.8pc gain in September, BLS said. The gasoline index rose by an annual 0.9pc in November compared with a 0.5pc decline in September. The fuel oil index rose by 11.3pc in November, surging from a 4.1pc gain in September, and the energy services index rose by 7.4pc in November, accelerating from a 6.4pc gain in September. The shelter index rose by 3pc in November, slowing from 3.6pc in September New vehicles rose by 0.6pc in November while used vehicles rose by 3.6pc. The food index rose on the year by 2.6pc in November following a 3.1pc gain in September. Meats, poultry, fish and eggs rose by 4.7pc in November. Medical care services rose by 3.3pc in November after a 3.9pc gain in September. Household furnishings and decorations, which are affected by import tariffs, rose by 4.6pc after a 4.1pc gain in September. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Traders offer CBAM paid import at discount to NW EU HRC

25/12/18

Traders offer CBAM paid import at discount to NW EU HRC

London, 18 December (Argus) — Some traders are starting to offer imported hot-rolled coil at varying discounts to Argus ' benchmark north EU HRC index inclusive of the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), suggesting they do not believe they will have to pay default values for the material. One trader was this week offering Indian HRC at a discount of €10/t to the monthly average of the Argus index for May 2026. Indian fixed-price cfr offers are around €470/t, while April is currently trading around €665/t on the CME Group's north EU HRC contract, for which Argus ' index is the cash-settlement basis. This suggests the trader believes it will not have to pay default values for the material; India's default value of 4.7t and the relevant benchmark of 1.37 would imply a CBAM cost of almost €270/t and an all-in cost of €740/t, assuming a carbon price of €80/t. Another trader reportedly offered Indonesian material at a steeper discount to the index for April arrival. Indonesia's default value of over 9t, against the benchmark of 1.37/t, would imply a carbon cost alone of over €617/t, suggesting it also assumes it will not pay the default value. The mill in question has informed market participants its direct emissions intensity is around 1.2t. The offers suggest, unsurprisingly, traders expect CBAM costs to be factored into the domestic market price, as reflected by Argus ' index. They also suggest traders believe domestic material will retain a premium to imports: at a recent Eurometal conference in Dusseldorf, some buyers suggested domestic material from one or two mills may in effect become the marginal tonne, as CBAM increases import costs. Increased complexity in importing — predominantly driven by CBAM and revisions to the EU safeguard — is steadily pushing the market towards buying on delivered duty paid terms, meaning buyers run no duty risk. This is typically being absorbed by traders. Most ddp offers have risen in recent weeks, in response to a flurry of leaked CBAM documents. Traders had been offering around €570/t ddp a few weeks back, but these offers have now mainly climbed to €600-620t ddp, reflecting more prohibitive default values and an expectation that prices will rise in the first quarter, enabling traders to book more profit. There was an offer reported yesterday at €585/t ddp Antwerp from Asia for April-May. The origin of the material was unclear, but some said it was from Vietnam. The rise in ddp offer volumes and prices has led to an increase in trading on the CME Group's north EU HRC contract in the last week or two. A 15,000t deal traded on 16 December for the fourth quarter of 2026 at €684/t, which derivatives traders said was likely an attractive buying price. Over the first three days of this week, around 36,700t traded on the CME contract, compared with just over 41,000t the whole of last week and 11,260t the preceding week. By Colin Richardson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Copper supply tightness beckons in Europe

25/12/17

Viewpoint: Copper supply tightness beckons in Europe

London, 17 December (Argus) — Europe's copper market heads into 2026 carrying the imprint of an extraordinary 2025, a year in which price signals, physical flows and geopolitics diverged sharply. What emerged was not a simple story of shortage or surplus, but a fractured global market in which Europe briefly found itself competing for metal with the US, while China's smelting overcapacity distorted upstream fundamentals. While European supply has stabilised, a projected tightness in 2026 promises higher premiums, particularly if underlying metal prices remain at record highs. Fractured fundamentals in 2025 Copper prices surged through 2025, with London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month values repeatedly achieving record territory above $11,000/t and briefly approaching $12,000/t in December. On the surface, the rally appeared to signal a classic supply crunch, driven by mine disruptions at assets such as Grasberg, in Indonesia, and Kamoa-Kakula, in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and structurally strong demand from grids, electrification and data centres. But the deeper story was more complex. Demand growth was uneven. China's apparent consumption slowed sharply in the second half of the year as stimulus effects faded, while manufacturing activity in Europe remained weak. Yet prices continued to rise, reflecting not so much booming end-use demand as a geopolitical and logistical reshaping of supply. The decisive factor was the growing pull of copper into the US market on the threat of import tariffs on refined copper. The widening price premium on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) contract relative to the LME opened a powerful arbitrage that drew metal out of LME warehouses and, by extension, away from Europe. By late 2025, CME stocks accounted for more than half of global exchange inventories, while LME registered stocks fell below 100,000t at points — levels historically associated with acute tightness in deliverable supply. For Europe, this mattered more than headline global balances. Even as total exchange inventories rose above 700,000t worldwide, availability became tighter in non-US regions, pushing spot and term premiums sharply higher. LME-CME arbitrage: the key swing factor The LME-CME arbitrage, which is governed by several interlinked factors — relative interest rates, currency moves, logistics costs, warehouse accessibility and above all, US trade policy — is expected to remain in 2026. As long as the CME price commands a premium of several hundred dollars per tonne over the LME, the incentive to ship metal into the US persists. In 2025, that premium regularly exceeded estimated freight and financing costs, keeping the arbitrage wide open. In 2026, tariff-driven uncertainty could trigger further pre-emptive inflows into the US early in the year, sustaining tightness elsewhere — including Europe — before potentially easing later once inventories are built and global supply recovers from 2025 shocks. Conversely, a delay or dilution of tariffs could narrow the spread, allowing some metal to remain or return to LME locations. European supply and premiums: a new baseline? European spot premiums eased in September-November as the scramble for cathode outside the US eased, but as major producers have responded to 2025 events by lifting 2026 term premiums aggressively, European spot premiums also surged as sellers look to mirror the new market baseline in the spot market. Chilean supplier Codelco announced a near 40pc increase in its European premium for 2026 deliveries, taking it to the mid-$300s/t over LME, with Aurubis following with similarly high offers. The Argus assessment for copper cathode grade A cif Rotterdam rose to $210-220/t on 2 December, increasing by more than a third relative to September-November levels. Trading groups and producers surveyed by Argus indicate a reassessment of risk — producers are pricing in the possibility that Europe becomes structurally "second in line" behind the US for deliverable cathode. Whether these elevated premiums are sustainable through the whole of 2026 depends on how quickly arbitrage-driven stock movements stabilise. But even if LME stocks rebuild later in the year, the premium reset of 2025 may have established a higher floor for Europe. Bank forecasts: surplus, but not comfort Major banks mostly agree that the global copper market remains in surplus in 2026, although the size of that surplus is shrinking. Goldman Sachs projects a surplus of about 160,000t in 2026, down from roughly 500,000t in 2025, and expects prices to average $10,000-11,000/t. But the International Copper Study Group points to a possible deficit of 150,000t in 2026, keeping the market on watch. Chinese market participants are expecting non-US supply to tighten significantly as material flows in the US, but some US market participants point to an easing trend. On paper, these numbers argue against a classic shortage. But the experience of 2025 shows that regional tightness can coexist with a global surplus. For Europe, the key takeaway is that surplus metal may not be available where it is needed, when it is needed, if arbitrage and policy continue to redirect flows. In that sense, 2026 could resemble 2025 — balanced or a surplus globally, but intermittently tight in Europe. By Raghav Jain Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

CBAM verification to redefine Italian HRC pricing

25/12/17

CBAM verification to redefine Italian HRC pricing

London, 17 December (Argus) — Italian hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices could find stronger support in 2026 as the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) moves into its financial phase and safeguard quotas tighten, raising the cost and complexity of third-country supply. Default values under CBAM underscore the need for suppliers to have their emissions data verified, and perceptions of compliance and trustworthiness could reshape import flows in the year ahead. A modest recovery in real steel consumption could add to the upward pressure, even as buyers remain cautious after four years of contraction. European steel association Eurofer forecasts EU real steel consumption will rise by 1.1pc in 2026, following declines of 4.2pc in 2024 and an expected 2.1pc this year, weighed down by weak automotive demand. The improvement coincides with stricter import regulation: CBAM charges will vary by origin, and quota management will become critical, as volumes drop. The origin of import material is likely to only grow in importance for purchasing decision-making. Argus currently publishes seven HRC origin differentials to its cif Italy HRC assessment. Low-CBAM, short-haul origins could tighten spreads to domestic offers, while higher-CBAM volumes will need deeper discounts to remain competitive, which would be exacerbated by expectations of pro-rated safeguard duties once the post-safeguard mechanism enters into effect. Beyond carbon intensity and quota considerations, the ability of suppliers to demonstrate verified CBAM compliance could become a decisive factor in purchasing decisions. Mills perceived as lacking robust internal processes for emissions reporting may face reduced buyer confidence, while those with transparent systems could command a premium. In a market where regulatory risk is rising, trustworthiness and preparedness are emerging as value drivers, influencing origin differentials and potentially narrowing the gap between suppliers perceived as compliant and domestic offers. Domestic Italian mills, by contrast, are positioned to hold premiums over 2025 average prices as imports lose some of their cost advantage, and as volumes are likely to be cut. The Argus Italian HRC ex-works assessment has averaged €583.71/t so far in 2025, down from €620.13/t in 2024, while cif Italy has averaged €530.39/t against €578.47/t a year earlier. Lower averages reflected subdued demand and steady import arrivals through to mid-year, when ample offers from Indonesia, India and Turkey, combined with a firm US dollar, pulled cif Italy lower and forced mills to discount. Domestic HRC values slid into the summer on thin buying and cheaper imports, hitting a low monthly average of €535.75/t in July. Prices rebounded sharply in October to average €608.75/t ex-works as expectations of tighter import rules and CBAM-linked costs lifted sentiment, even as downstream demand stayed muted. With carbon intensity and quotas shaping trade flows, Italian HRC in 2026 could trade higher than in 2025: not on demand strength alone, but on the rising premium for certainty in a more regulated import landscape. By Lora Stoyanova Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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