Atlantic coking coal: Outlook firms for high vol
US coking coal prices have been flat to slightly stronger early this week ahead of current third-quarter spot requirements in Europe closing. But confidence is growing among US high-volatility coal suppliers as some are seeing more buying interest than expected in the third quarter, particulary from Europe.
The daily Argus-assessed low-volatility coal price is unchanged today at $107.50/t fob Hampton Roads, while the high-volatility A price is up by 50¢/t to $113.50/t fob Hampton Roads and the high volatility B price is up by 50¢/t as well to $107.50/t.
"While we're still working on third-quarter deals, momentum is clearly on the upside," said one US miner, citing improved interests from Europe, India and Brazil. Prices may not be going up quickly but they are supported, said the miner.
Slowly recovering steel prices have also supported the mood in Europe, where there are expectations among suppliers for a high-volatility A spot requirement to emerge this quarter.
Expectations of Brazilian demand continue to improve following the restart of CPS and Gerdau Acominas' blast furnaces, with another steelmaker expected to restart blast furnaces that were idled in April amid the coronavirus outbreak in Brazil.
There is likely to be a high-volatility B requirement emerging for September delivery and possibly further demand in the fourth quarter, said market participants. But this increase in spot demand does not necessarily point to a growth in overall demand, but rather a shift towards more frequent or quarterly procurements by Brazilian mills. Still Brazilian demand is coming in above expectations for some suppliers. "We have seen some laycans adjusted to bring forward deliveries to Brazil," said one miner.
There has been reduced demand for Colombian coking coal and met coke, but one trader indicated that Colombian producers have been able to sell cargoes to China recently as long as they have stayed at around $210-215/t. "That is a viable price for Colombian suppliers," said the trader. "I think Chinese met coke prices have been a bit overhyped." Last week, Chinese domestic spot deals were concluding at around Yn2,020/t for 62 CSR and Yn2,120/t for 65 CSR at north China ports, equivalent to around $293/t and $308/t on a fob basis, respectively, for export. Coke plants in China are operating with gross margins of around Yn500/t.
While the restrictions on China's imports of Australian coking coal have continued to weigh on prices, particularly in Asia-Pacific, the restrictions do not appear to apply to US miners, traders said. Large Chinese mills and those with remaining import quota allocations have still be able to maintain their imports.
But the appeal of US coals among Chinese mills is limited to select miners. While few US miners have managed to transact with Chinese buyers recently, suppliers of Russian coal have made several shipments to China, but with a degree of uncertainty attached. "They are booking cargoes but it's not relaxed — you might have to take it through a different port for example," said one trader. "The freight routes only take three to four days, which is an advantage over other coals, and there might be a political factor as well."
New Covid-19 infection cases have been on the rise in the US, but US miners that are still slowly restarting operations since their Covid-19 linked stoppages earlier this year have yet to indicate any change in their plans. "We are not running at 100pc at the moment and the period after 4 July is typically a holiday period for miners anyway, so there are no plans to cut back. But we are not going to push up production either to produce coal to keep it in our inventory," said a miner.
Related news posts
Oversupply and fragmentation challenge steel market
Oversupply and fragmentation challenge steel market
London, 30 April (Argus) — Participants in the Turkish and European long steel markets at a major industry event this week anticipated a difficult remainder of 2024, expecting demand to be generally supplied by local capacities. With the Chinese Metallurgical Industry Institute forecasting a 1.7pc drop in Chinese steel demand in 2024 and the country's steel output expected to remain stable, Chinese exports are likely to continue putting pressure on global rebar prices. China's overall steel exports this year so far are on course to exceed the 91.2mn t shipped in 2023. Traders were concerned over the Chinese real estate sector, which, along with infrastructure construction, drives the bulk of Chinese steel demand but has been plagued by a mismatch between housing demand and supply in recent years. Markets outside of China are also likely to be well-supplied for the rest of the year or longer, with a weak construction outlook in Europe and with steel capacity on an upward trend in India and southeast Asia. Government investment in construction projects is likely to drive Indian steel demand to at least 190mn t by 2030, said Somanath Tripathy of the Steel Authority of India Limited (SAIL). But in the near term Indian demand growth has been sluggish while output has increased, with steelmakers Tata and JSW both reaching record steel output in the financial year of 2023-2024. Meanwhile, participants had weak expectations for the European and Turkish rebar markets for the rest of the year. Expectations of a recovery in the European steel sector have largely been pinned on the likelihood the European Central Bank will reduce interest rates at some point in the second half of the year. But a German trader noted while this move would lend some support, high interest rates are far from being the only challenge for the sector. The EU construction sector faces increasingly high costs, partly caused by sustainability requirements, participants noted, slowing investment and weighing on property demand by pushing up prices. The combination of high interest rates and inflation in Turkey, as well as dwindling export options, means several Turkish steel mills are currently running at near 50pc of capacity. Turkish rebar exporters face stiff competition in most export markets from Chinese suppliers, whose fob prices are currently around $70/t lower than Turkey, as well as from north African producers. The challenge for Turkish exporters is structural, with the business model of importing scrap and exporting steel no longer as viable due to higher scrap demand from other regions as well as the significantly lower energy costs of north African and Middle Eastern producers. Some market participants noted in this context, the introduction of the European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) could favour Turkish EAF mills in the long run, who are no longer competitive in terms of price in most markets, but whose use of scrap versus direct reduced iron (DRI) makes their production less carbon-intensive than other EAF-based producers in the region. Turkish producers are working to make sure they will be compatible with EU environmental requirements, a Turkish mill source said. But government support for these efforts has been lacking, he added. Overall, protectionist measures have significantly harmed Turkey's export options, as has the outbreak of conflicts and tensions in the region over the past two years. Some Turkish mills have lost up to half of their regular export sales as a result of the halt of exports to Israel and a slowdown in sales to Yemen as a result of the conflict in Gaza and Houthi vessel attacks. Until European prices pick up significantly and north Africa is selling at capacity, Turkish long steel exports will not be competitive in the near future, a trader noted. By Brendan Kjellberg-Motton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Climate change to heavily disrupt mining: PwC
Climate change to heavily disrupt mining: PwC
London, 30 April (Argus) — More than 70pc of the world's production of copper, cobalt and lithium could face significant or high drought risks by 2050, up from less than 10pc currently and posing a significant challenge to future supply growth, according to accounting firm PwC. Under a low-emissions scenario — which imagines global carbon emissions rapidly decreasing — more than 70pc of cobalt and lithium production and around 60pc of the world's bauxite and iron production will be at risk by 2050, according to PwC's 2024 Climate Risks to Nine Key Commodities Report . More than half of the world's copper production will be disrupted by 2050 in a low-emissions scenario and over 70pc in a high-emissions scenario. PwC warns that unless commodity producers and buyers take preventive action now, their operations are likely to be increasingly disrupted. "Climate change is already fracturing the stability of the natural world, and it will increasingly fracture the stability of global supply chains unless adaptive measures are taken," said global sustainability leader Will Jackson-Moore. Some companies are responding to the growing drought risk by investing in water management systems to prevent wastage. Others are considering infrastructure adaptations, such as building elevated storage facilities in flood-prone areas. Several mining companies in Chile have invested in desalination plants, the report notes. According to PwC's 2024 Annual Global CEO Survey , 47pc of chief executives have taken proactive measures to safeguard their workforces and physical assets from climate change. To continue building resilience and adapting to climate risks, businesses must assess impacts, work with suppliers and communities, establish a climate strategy, make transparent disclosures, leverage adaptive products and services and participate in multi-stakeholder efforts, the latest report concludes. By Cristina Belda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Milei's bid to open Argentina's economy passes
Milei's bid to open Argentina's economy passes
Montevideo, 30 April (Argus) — Argentina's congress today approved the government's sweeping economic legislation that could open the door to more private-sector investment in energy and commodities. The bill passed on a 142-106 vote, with five abstentions, after a marathon 20-hour debate. Changes include privatizing some state-owned companies, controversial labor reforms and measures to promote LNG development. The omnibus legislation, which includes 279 articles, is an important victory for President Javier Milei's administration and will change the way many sectors, including energy, operate in the country. Lawmakers aligned with Milei's Liberty Advances party swiftly moved to the second stage of the process, which requires approval of individual articles. The omnibus bill was initially approved in February, but the administration withdrew it after congress failed to approve several key individual articles. That original version included 664 articles. Several of the more controversial articles were brought up immediately after the blanket approval and easily passed. They included an article allowing for privatization of state-run enterprises — national power company Enarsa is on the list — and another delegating to the administration the power to eliminate state agencies without having to consult with congress. Also approved was the article on labor reform. The country's oilseed industry and port workers' unions called a strike the previous day to pressure congress to modify the labor reform. That did not happen. It passed in a separate 136-113 vote. The strike started to fizzle with approval of the legislation. Approval of the package includes several articles the administration says will open the door to major investments in the energy sector. Chapter II specifically covers natural gas, and introduces new regulations for LNG. The chapter includes five articles that allow for 30-year contracts for LNG export projects and guarantees that gas supply cannot be interrupted for any reason. The energy secretariat has six months to design the implementing rules for LNG. The government wants to speed up monetization of the Vaca Muerta unconventional play, which has an estimated 308 trillion cf of natural gas reserves. It is pushing for Malaysia's Petronas to fully commit to a large-scale LNG facility that would start with a $10bn investment. Chapter IX of the legislation creates a new framework, known as the Rigi, for investments above $200mn. It offers tax, fiscal and customs benefits. Companies have two years from implementation of the legislation to take advantage of the Rigi. The chapter on this framework is one of the most complex in the bill, including 56 articles. It includes specific references to energy projects, from power generation to unconventional oil and gas development. The administration claims the legislation will help tame inflation and stabilize the economy. Inflation was 276pc annualized through February, but is declining, and Milei announced that monthly inflation would be in single digits when the March numbers are announced. The country recorded a 0.2pc quarterly fiscal surplus in the first quarter of this year, something not achieved since 2008. By Lucien Chauvin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Higher C919 adoption to boost China's Ti demand
Higher C919 adoption to boost China's Ti demand
Beijing, 30 April (Argus) — Higher adoption of the C919 airliner, China's first self-developed single-aisle passenger jet, is likely to boost demand for titanium mill products in the coming years, according to market participants. China Southern Airlines, one of the country's top three airlines, ordered 100 C919 aircraft from its manufacturer Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (Comac) yesterday. These aircraft will be delivered in 2024-2031. China's flag carrier Air China on 26 April also announced that it will purchase 100 C919 aircraft from Comac during the same period. Another major airline, China Eastern Airlines, in September 2023 placed an order for 100 C919 aircraft from Comac, which delivered the fifth unit this March. This means all three top China airlines have invested in 100 aircraft deals for C919. Market participants estimate a single C919 aircraft contains 3.92t of titanium mill products. Demand for titanium mill products from a single C919 aircraft will reach 49t based on an overall yield rate of 8pc for mill products used in aviation parts. Titanium mill products typically include titanium strip, rod, section bar, wire, plate, sheet, tap and foil. Comac launched the C919 development programme in 2008 and began prototype production in 2011. The airliner had its maiden flight in 2017 and received its airworthiness certification from Chinese authorities in September 2022. A continued increase in orders and deliveries of the C919 airliner is likely to continue to boost demand for titanium mill products in the coming years. Comac has received over 1,400 orders for C919 from domestic and international airlines so far. China's 32 major manufacturers produced 159,000t of titanium mill products in 2023, up by 5.3pc from 151,000t in 2022, according to statistics from China nonferrous metals industry association titanium zirconium and hafnium branch (CNIA-TI). Aerospace, the second-largest consumption industry for titanium mill products, consumed 29,377t of titanium mill products in 2023, accounting for 19.8pc of China's total domestic production. "Demand from the aerospace industry has large potential in China," a source at a Baoji-based mill products manufacturer told Argus . "Only 20pc of titanium mill products is used in China's aerospace industry now, while the proportion is as high as 70-80pc in Europe and the US." A number of titanium mill products manufacturers in Baoji, which is known as China's "titanium valley", have begun to supply Comac as they have improved their product quality to meet Comac's criterion. Comac designated the country's largest producer Baoji Titanium (BaoTi) as the sole supplier of titanium mill products for the airliner just last year. Argus -assessed prices for titanium ingot, the main feedstock in the production of mill products, held stable from 23 April at 60,000-62,000 yuan/t ex-works for TA2 grade today, in response to firm titanium sponge feedstock costs and steady demand from mill products manufacturers. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more