Peru presidential race tips left: Update 2
Leftwing schoolteacher and labor leader Pedro Castillo has inched past the investor community's favorite Keiko Fujimori in Peru's nail-biting presidential race.
With 95pc of the votes counted from yesterday's elections, Castillo had garnered 50.2pc of the vote, compared with 49.8pc for Fujimori, daughter of former strongman president Alberto Fujimori who is making her third bid for the presidency.
The race is still too close to call, but the possibility of a Castillo victory is sending jitters through Peru's financial markets.
Peru has been engulfed in political turmoil for four years. Caretaker president Francisco Sagasti will hand over the sash on 28 July.
Keiko, as Fujimori is known, and Castillo were the top vote-getters in 11 April elections, but neither garnered a large enough margin to avoid yesterday's run-off.
While Fujimori had posted a narrow lead in the tally early today, Castillo has now just surpassed her as rural votes favoring him roll in.
The outcome could still swing back after electoral authority ONPE tallies overseas votes that favor Fujimori.
Champion of the poor
Castillo promised during the campaign to end business as usual, claiming that two decades of economic growth have not reached average Peruvians. He stressed that 75pc of the workforce is informal -- without access to a labor contract or benefits -- and that poverty expanded from 20pc to 30pc of the population in the pandemic era. The state defines poverty as an individual with income below $95/month.
To remedy this, his Peru Libre party proposes nationalizing natural resources, including copper mines and natural gas, and increasing the state's role in the economy. In an echo of neighboring Chile, he wants to seat a constituent assembly that would rewrite Peru's 1993 constitution.
A key policy component would be reviewing tax stability contracts signed with more than 20 large-scale mining companies.
He proposed, but later walked back from, reviewing free-trade agreements. Peru has trade agreements with most of the world's top economies or blocks, including China, the EU and the US, its three chief trading partners.
Whoever wins will inherit an economy crawling out from the Covid-19 pandemic. Less than 10pc of the population had been vaccinated against Covid-19 as of early June.
Regional pattern
Peru's economy expanded by 3.8pc year on year in the first quarter after tumbling by 11pc in 2020. Unemployment remains at 15.1pc. The government at the end of May dramatically revised up its Covid-19 deaths to more than 184,000. It now leads the world in per capita deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University.
In a widely expected regional pattern, Fujimori has dominated Lima, which represents one-third of the electorate. Castillo has swept the south of the country, including Cusco, where the Camisea gas fields are located. He has carried all of the big mining regions as well.
Peru is the world's second largest copper producer after Chile, and is among the top producers of gold, lead, silver and zinc.
Related news posts
US crude output rebounds by 4.6pc in February: EIA
US crude output rebounds by 4.6pc in February: EIA
Calgary, 30 April (Argus) — US crude output rebounded by 4.6pc in February after freezing temperatures in the prior month took production offline in the three largest producing states. Output averaged 13.15mn b/d in February, up by 578,000 b/d from January, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said today in its Petroleum Supply Monthly report. February's production was up by 622,000 b/d from February 2023 but remained short of the 13.3mn b/d record high set in November 2023. North Dakota was hit particularly hard by winter storms in January, which temporarily knocked as much as 700,000 b/d of production offline. The country's third-largest producing state pumped out 1.29mn b/d during February, up by 173,000 b/d from January and 159,000 b/d higher than in February 2023. About 86pc of North Dakota's production was 40.1°API or higher, according to the EIA. Texas, home to more than 40pc of the country's crude production, pumped out 5.55mn b/d in February. This was up by 172,000 b/d from January and 242,000 b/d higher than February 2023. New Mexico, which shares the prolific Permian basin with Texas, also boosted its output in February with 1.98mn b/d of production. This was up by 120,000 b/d from January and up by 183,000 b/d from February 2023. Similar to North Dakota, about 91pc of crude produced in New Mexico was 40.1°API or higher, while in Texas about 55pc of output fell into that category. About 44pc of all crude produced in Texas fell into the relatively heavier 30.1-40°API range. US output in the Gulf of Mexico came in at 1.8mn b/d in February, up from the 1.78mn b/d produced in the prior month but down by 28,000 b/d from February 2023. Almost all the crude produced in the Gulf of Mexico was 40°API or lower. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Milei's bid to open Argentina's economy passes
Milei's bid to open Argentina's economy passes
Montevideo, 30 April (Argus) — Argentina's congress today approved the government's sweeping economic legislation that could open the door to more private-sector investment in energy and commodities. The bill passed on a 142-106 vote, with five abstentions, after a marathon 20-hour debate. Changes include privatizing some state-owned companies, controversial labor reforms and measures to promote LNG development. The omnibus legislation, which includes 279 articles, is an important victory for President Javier Milei's administration and will change the way many sectors, including energy, operate in the country. Lawmakers aligned with Milei's Liberty Advances party swiftly moved to the second stage of the process, which requires approval of individual articles. The omnibus bill was initially approved in February, but the administration withdrew it after congress failed to approve several key individual articles. That original version included 664 articles. Several of the more controversial articles were brought up immediately after the blanket approval and easily passed. They included an article allowing for privatization of state-run enterprises — national power company Enarsa is on the list — and another delegating to the administration the power to eliminate state agencies without having to consult with congress. Also approved was the article on labor reform. The country's oilseed industry and port workers' unions called a strike the previous day to pressure congress to modify the labor reform. That did not happen. It passed in a separate 136-113 vote. The strike started to fizzle with approval of the legislation. Approval of the package includes several articles the administration says will open the door to major investments in the energy sector. Chapter II specifically covers natural gas, and introduces new regulations for LNG. The chapter includes five articles that allow for 30-year contracts for LNG export projects and guarantees that gas supply cannot be interrupted for any reason. The energy secretariat has six months to design the implementing rules for LNG. The government wants to speed up monetization of the Vaca Muerta unconventional play, which has an estimated 308 trillion cf of natural gas reserves. It is pushing for Malaysia's Petronas to fully commit to a large-scale LNG facility that would start with a $10bn investment. Chapter IX of the legislation creates a new framework, known as the Rigi, for investments above $200mn. It offers tax, fiscal and customs benefits. Companies have two years from implementation of the legislation to take advantage of the Rigi. The chapter on this framework is one of the most complex in the bill, including 56 articles. It includes specific references to energy projects, from power generation to unconventional oil and gas development. The administration claims the legislation will help tame inflation and stabilize the economy. Inflation was 276pc annualized through February, but is declining, and Milei announced that monthly inflation would be in single digits when the March numbers are announced. The country recorded a 0.2pc quarterly fiscal surplus in the first quarter of this year, something not achieved since 2008. By Lucien Chauvin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
G7 countries put timeframe on 'unabated' coal phase-out
G7 countries put timeframe on 'unabated' coal phase-out
London, 30 April (Argus) — G7 countries today committed to phasing out "unabated coal power generation" by 2035 — putting a timeframe on a coal phase-out for the first time. The communique, from a meeting of G7 climate, energy and environment ministers in Turin, northern Italy, represents "an historic agreement" on coal, Canadian environment minister Steven Guilbeault said. Although most G7 nations have set a deadline for phasing out coal-fired power, the agreement marks a step forward for Japan in particular, which had previously not made the commitment, and is a "milestone moment", senior policy advisor at think-tank E3G Katrine Petersen said. The G7 countries are Italy — this year's host — Canada, France, Germany, Japan, the UK and the US. The EU is a non-enumerated member. But the pledge contains a caveat in its reference to "unabated" coal-fired power — suggesting that abatement technologies such as carbon capture and storage could justify its use, while some of the wording around a deadline is less clear. The communique sets a timeframe of "the first half of [the] 2030s or in a timeline consistent with keeping a limit of 1.5°C temperature rise within reach, in line with countries' net-zero pathways". OECD countries should end coal use by 2030 and the rest of the world by 2040, in order to align with the global warming limit of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels set out in the Paris Agreement, according to research institute Climate Analytics. The countries welcomed the outcomes of the UN Cop 28 climate summit , pledging to "accelerate the phase out of unabated fossil fuels so as to achieve net zero in energy systems by 2050". It backed the Cop 28 goal to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030 and added support for a global target for energy storage in the power sector of 1.5TW by 2030. The group committed to submit climate plans — known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — with "the highest possible ambition" from late this year or in early 2025. And it also called on the IEA to "provide recommendations" next year on how to implement a transition away from fossil fuels. The G7 also reiterated its commitment to a "fully or predominantly decarbonised power sector by 2035" — first made in May 2022 and highlighted roles for carbon management, carbon markets, hydrogen and biofuels. Simon Stiell, head of UN climate body the UNFCCC, urged the G7 and G20 countries to lead on climate action, in a recent speech . The group noted in today's outcome that "further actions from all countries, especially major economies, are required". The communique broadly reaffirmed existing positions on climate finance, although any concrete steps are not likely to be taken ahead of Cop 29 in November. The group underlined its pledge to end "inefficient fossil fuel subsidies" by 2025 or earlier, but added a new promise to "promote a common definition" of the term, which is likely to increase countries' accountability. The group will report on its progress towards ending those subsidies next year, it added. Fostering energy security The communique placed a strong focus on the need for "diverse, resilient, and responsible energy technology supply chains, including manufacturing and critical minerals". It noted the important of "guarding against possible weaponisation of economic dependencies on critical minerals and critical raw materials" — many of which are mined and processed outside the G7 group. Energy security held sway on the group's take on natural gas. It reiterated its stance that gas investments "can be appropriate… if implemented in a manner consistent with our climate objectives" and noted that increased LNG deliveries could play a key role. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Higher C919 adoption to boost China's Ti demand
Higher C919 adoption to boost China's Ti demand
Beijing, 30 April (Argus) — Higher adoption of the C919 airliner, China's first self-developed single-aisle passenger jet, is likely to boost demand for titanium mill products in the coming years, according to market participants. China Southern Airlines, one of the country's top three airlines, ordered 100 C919 aircraft from its manufacturer Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (Comac) yesterday. These aircraft will be delivered in 2024-2031. China's flag carrier Air China on 26 April also announced that it will purchase 100 C919 aircraft from Comac during the same period. Another major airline, China Eastern Airlines, in September 2023 placed an order for 100 C919 aircraft from Comac, which delivered the fifth unit this March. This means all three top China airlines have invested in 100 aircraft deals for C919. Market participants estimate a single C919 aircraft contains 3.92t of titanium mill products. Demand for titanium mill products from a single C919 aircraft will reach 49t based on an overall yield rate of 8pc for mill products used in aviation parts. Titanium mill products typically include titanium strip, rod, section bar, wire, plate, sheet, tap and foil. Comac launched the C919 development programme in 2008 and began prototype production in 2011. The airliner had its maiden flight in 2017 and received its airworthiness certification from Chinese authorities in September 2022. A continued increase in orders and deliveries of the C919 airliner is likely to continue to boost demand for titanium mill products in the coming years. Comac has received over 1,400 orders for C919 from domestic and international airlines so far. China's 32 major manufacturers produced 159,000t of titanium mill products in 2023, up by 5.3pc from 151,000t in 2022, according to statistics from China nonferrous metals industry association titanium zirconium and hafnium branch (CNIA-TI). Aerospace, the second-largest consumption industry for titanium mill products, consumed 29,377t of titanium mill products in 2023, accounting for 19.8pc of China's total domestic production. "Demand from the aerospace industry has large potential in China," a source at a Baoji-based mill products manufacturer told Argus . "Only 20pc of titanium mill products is used in China's aerospace industry now, while the proportion is as high as 70-80pc in Europe and the US." A number of titanium mill products manufacturers in Baoji, which is known as China's "titanium valley", have begun to supply Comac as they have improved their product quality to meet Comac's criterion. Comac designated the country's largest producer Baoji Titanium (BaoTi) as the sole supplier of titanium mill products for the airliner just last year. Argus -assessed prices for titanium ingot, the main feedstock in the production of mill products, held stable from 23 April at 60,000-62,000 yuan/t ex-works for TA2 grade today, in response to firm titanium sponge feedstock costs and steady demand from mill products manufacturers. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more