Peru presidential race tips left: Update 2
Leftwing schoolteacher and labor leader Pedro Castillo has inched past the investor community's favorite Keiko Fujimori in Peru's nail-biting presidential race.
With 95pc of the votes counted from yesterday's elections, Castillo had garnered 50.2pc of the vote, compared with 49.8pc for Fujimori, daughter of former strongman president Alberto Fujimori who is making her third bid for the presidency.
The race is still too close to call, but the possibility of a Castillo victory is sending jitters through Peru's financial markets.
Peru has been engulfed in political turmoil for four years. Caretaker president Francisco Sagasti will hand over the sash on 28 July.
Keiko, as Fujimori is known, and Castillo were the top vote-getters in 11 April elections, but neither garnered a large enough margin to avoid yesterday's run-off.
While Fujimori had posted a narrow lead in the tally early today, Castillo has now just surpassed her as rural votes favoring him roll in.
The outcome could still swing back after electoral authority ONPE tallies overseas votes that favor Fujimori.
Champion of the poor
Castillo promised during the campaign to end business as usual, claiming that two decades of economic growth have not reached average Peruvians. He stressed that 75pc of the workforce is informal -- without access to a labor contract or benefits -- and that poverty expanded from 20pc to 30pc of the population in the pandemic era. The state defines poverty as an individual with income below $95/month.
To remedy this, his Peru Libre party proposes nationalizing natural resources, including copper mines and natural gas, and increasing the state's role in the economy. In an echo of neighboring Chile, he wants to seat a constituent assembly that would rewrite Peru's 1993 constitution.
A key policy component would be reviewing tax stability contracts signed with more than 20 large-scale mining companies.
He proposed, but later walked back from, reviewing free-trade agreements. Peru has trade agreements with most of the world's top economies or blocks, including China, the EU and the US, its three chief trading partners.
Whoever wins will inherit an economy crawling out from the Covid-19 pandemic. Less than 10pc of the population had been vaccinated against Covid-19 as of early June.
Regional pattern
Peru's economy expanded by 3.8pc year on year in the first quarter after tumbling by 11pc in 2020. Unemployment remains at 15.1pc. The government at the end of May dramatically revised up its Covid-19 deaths to more than 184,000. It now leads the world in per capita deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University.
In a widely expected regional pattern, Fujimori has dominated Lima, which represents one-third of the electorate. Castillo has swept the south of the country, including Cusco, where the Camisea gas fields are located. He has carried all of the big mining regions as well.
Peru is the world's second largest copper producer after Chile, and is among the top producers of gold, lead, silver and zinc.
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APLNG's Jan-Mar output higher: Origin
APLNG's Jan-Mar output higher: Origin
Sydney, 30 April (Argus) — The 9mn t/yr Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG) project in Queensland state produced and sold more LNG than the previous quarter and year earlier, Australian independent Origin Energy said in its January-March results. Output rose from the final quarter of 2023 because of the power failure of a vessel docked at APLNG's terminal in Gladstone harbour in late November , which prompted upstream operator Origin to cut flows to the liquefaction plant and APLNG to defer three cargoes to 2024. APLNG exported 134PJ (2.4mn t) of LNG through 34 cargoes for January-March, 8pc up from 124PJ and 32 cargoes the previous quarter and 4pc up on the 129PJ and 33 cargoes shipped in January-March 2023. Total APLNG production for July 2023-March 2024, the first three quarters of Origin's fiscal year to 30 June, was 519PJ, 4pc higher than 498PJ a year earlier, because of effective well and field optimisation activities, fewer maintenance disruptions and the continuing benefit of reducing workover backlog resulting in more wells being on line, Origin said. The terminal will take half a train of capacity off line for 12 days in June , following a two-day maintenance period in January. APLNG's domestic gas sales were 36PJ, steady on the previous quarter but higher by 24pc from the 29PJ sold a year earlier. Gas sales volumes for Origin's energy markets business fell by 5pc to 36PJ from 38PJ in January-March 2023. Origin said it continues to negotiate a deal with the government of New South Wales (NSW) regarding the 2,880MW Eraring coal-fired power station's future . The power plant had been due to close in 2025 but insufficient new generation capacity has been completed in NSW for this to occur. "We continue to progress large-scale batteries under development at Eraring and Mortlake power stations and recently announced our first storage offtake agreement from the Supernode battery in Queensland, taking Origin's storage portfolio to around 1GW of capacity once these batteries come on line," chief executive Frank Calabria said on 30 April. By Tom Major APLNG results Jan-Mar '24 Oct-Dec '23 Jan-Mar '23 y-o-y % ± q-o-q % ± Production (PJ) 176 167 165 7 5 Sales (PJ) 168 160 158 6 4 Commodity revenue (A$mn) 2,303 2,149 2,583 -11 7 Average realised LNG price ($/mn Btu) 12.17 11.88 14.50 -15 3 Average realised domestic gas price (A$/GJ) 6.90 6.39 6.17 12 8 Source: Origin Energy Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Taiwan's scrap imports fall in March as demand slows
Taiwan's scrap imports fall in March as demand slows
Singapore, 30 April (Argus) — Taiwan's ferrous scrap imports fell on a year-on-year basis in March, as a slight rise in spot prices in January combined with slow domestic steel demand to discourage purchases. Taiwanese steel demand has weakened since the beginning of the year, market participants said. "Market fundamentals in 2023 were still okay, but slowed down in January as scrap buyers were unsure about the market post-Chinese new year," a trader said. Marginally higher spot scrap prices in January also suppressed buying appetite. The spot price for HMS 1/2 80:20 containerised scrap from the US west coast was as high as $380t/t on 17 January and was assessed at $375/t cfr by the end of that month. The higher spot prices encouraged steel mills and scrap buyers to take a wait-and-see approach. Loadings and delivery of containerised scrap bookings are usually made 8-10 weeks after an agreement is signed. Import volumes for the second quarter of 2024 are expected at steady-to-lower levels on seasonal weakness, market participants said. Production is likely to fall in the upcoming summer season because of electricity restrictions set by local authorities. A rise in electricity rates in April will also cap any upside in imported scrap prices and volumes, as mills are likely to reduce output by 20-40pc to curb their electricity use. Taiwan ferrous scrap imports t Country Mar % ± vs Feb % ± vs Mar'23 Jan-Mar % ± y-o-y US 121,298 49.29% 12.2% 323,030 5.74% Japan 44,316 -20.17% -56.7% 161,710 -23.04% Australia 15,942 60.69% -58.8% 37,850 -45.67% Dominican Republic 14,920 -15.05% 0.4% 48,878 -0.81% Others 76,671 40.31% 29.1% 198,780 25.86% Total 273,148 24.79% -15.6% 770,249 -2.81% Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US commends China's Middle East mediation
US commends China's Middle East mediation
Washington, 29 April (Argus) — The US hopes China will continue using its diplomatic influence in the Middle East after the two countries cooperated earlier this month to de-escalate tensions between Israel and Iran, US secretary of state Tony Blinken said today. "We did come very close to an escalation, a spread of the conflict," after Israel and Iran exchanged aerial attacks on each other's territory, Blinken said at a special meeting of the World Economic Forum in the Saudi Arabia capital Riyadh. The US saw that China used its influence in Iran to prevent an outbreak of a broader regional conflict "and that's a positive thing," Blinken said. Beijing stepped in last year to mediate an agreement between Tehran and Riyadh to normalize relations, playing a mediation role that the US could not carry out on its own. The US supported Chinese efforts to normalize Saudi-Iranian relations "because, if we can find through diplomacy ways to ease tensions and to avoid any conflict, that's a good thing," Blinken said. China has "a clear, obvious interest in stability in the Middle East," he said. "They obviously depend on the region for energy resources. There are many vital trading partners here." China provides a critical economic lifeline to Iran by absorbing nearly all of Iranian crude exports, "which is another challenge," Blinken said. But the US sees China as acting in its self-interest to help bolster stability in the Middle East. Finding some common ground on Iran was a rare positive spot during Blinken's visit to China last week. Blinken pushed his Chinese counterparts to put an end to private Chinese companies' supplies for Russia's military industry, while President Xi Jinping accused the US of undermining China's economic growth. "China and the US should be partners rather than rivals," Xi told Blinken during their meeting in Beijing on 26 April. The two countries should find common ground "rather than engage in vicious competition," Xi said. The US contends that Chinese companies supply 70pc of the machine tools and 90pc of the microelectronics for the Russian military industry, allowing Moscow to significantly increase weapons output in the past year. It remains to be seen whether the US threat of sanctions against Chinese companies accused of helping Russia's military industry will work, Blinken said. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Yara first-quarter gas consumption higher on year
Yara first-quarter gas consumption higher on year
London, 29 April (Argus) — Europe's largest fertiliser producer Yara's European gas consumption in the first quarter was up by 26pc on the year, but remained far lower than in the second half of last year. Norway-based Yara's gas consumption across Europe in January-March totalled 29.2 trillion Btu, well above the 23.1 trillion Btu a year earlier, but drastically down from 37.5 trillion Btu in the fourth quarter last year, the company's latest quarterly report shows. Yara did not report its European ammonia production for the first quarter, but the company's global output totalled 1.74mn t, up from 1.38mn t a year earlier. Yara's first-quarter European gas consumption fell from the preceding three months, despite its average European gas costs falling to $11.70/mn Btu from $13/mn Btu. The firm's European gas costs have declined sharply since peaking at $34.50/mn Btu in the third-quarter 2022, when European wholesale prices hit all-time highs ( see price graph ). Yara's quarterly spending on European gas supplies fell to $343mn in January-March, the lowest since at least summer 2021 when the company began reporting this data, and around one third the $1.08bn peak in April-June 2022. Yara's European gas consumption also fell despite a 37pc annual increase in total fertiliser deliveries in Europe . Lower curtailments, improved production economics and "volume catch-up" had supported output, Yara said. But while European deliveries improved on the year, they remained "below normal" — particularly for nitrates — and Yara sourced a larger share of its European deliveries from its global plants, the company's chief financial officer Thor Giaever said. Yara had hinted earlier this year its ammonia assets might run at 90pc or more of capacity as the company expected to boost production this year . But one explanation for the lower gas demand compared to the previous quarter is Yara may be maximising production at more efficient plants like Sluiskil in the Netherlands and Brunsbuttel in Germany, while ramping down less efficient plants, allowing the company to maintain or increase production while consuming less gas. Yara last year curtailed 19pc of its European ammonia capacity , turning towards greater imports of ammonia to replace the lower production. And that remains key to Yara's business plans , which the company said last week focused on "further strengthening operational resilience and flexibility". Argus assessed European ammonia production prices based on the TTF front-month price at roughly a $100/t discount to northwest European import prices in its last weekly assessment on 25 April, suggesting a still-significant financial incentive to produce ammonia domestically. The European fertiliser market remains under pressure by large volumes from Russia, meaning Europe has swapped an energy dependency on Russia for a food dependency, chief executive Svein Tore Holsether said, echoing previous statements . Comparing global assets Yara consumed 54.4 trillion Btu of gas globally in January-March, down from a multi-year high of 61.9 trillion Btu in October-December ( see consumption graph ). European consumption accounted for roughly 54pc of Yara's global gas demand in January-March, well down from 61pc in the previous quarter. And Yara spent $485mn on gas worldwide in January-March, 71pc for European supply, a lower proportion than at any other point since 2021. Yara's global average gas cost was $8.90/mn Btu in January-March, 24pc below its reported European cost. That discount has been a significant driver for Yara and others to increase production abroad rather than in Europe over the past two years. Yara forecasts its European gas costs at $9.70/mn Btu and $10.50/mn Btu in the second and third quarters of this year, respectively, holding well above its global average gas costs of $7.70/mn Btu and $8.40/mn Btu during those same periods. Globally, the firm aims to produce 8.6mn t of ammonia in 2025, significantly up from 7.8mn t in 2023, it said. By Brendan A'Hearn Yara European vs global gas costs $/MMBtu Yara European vs global gas consumption million MMBtu Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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