Africa claims leadership role in global climate fight
African countries need to see an overhaul of global financial support to leapfrog their economies straight to low-carbon energy, writes Elaine Mills
African heads of state have reframed Africa's role in the global climate-change crisis by asserting a new leadership status for the continent and underscoring its abundant clean energy minerals and renewable energy resources as a potential solution. In return, they called for debt relief for African countries, a global carbon tax and a raft of reforms of the international financial system to support climate action on the continent and worldwide.
The proposal formed part of the "Nairobi declaration" issued at the inaugural Africa Climate Summit in Nairobi, Kenya, in September. This will underpin Africa's common position in negotiations at the UN Cop 28 climate conference in the UAE later this month, and beyond. Leaders committed to aiding global decarbonisation efforts by leapfrogging traditional industrial development, striking a different tone to their previous rhetoric, which was that Africa would pursue industrialisation by any means, including continuing to exploit its domestic oil and gas resources.
According to Kenyan president William Ruto, renewable energy can be just as strong a driver of Africa's economic development as oil and gas. So Kenya will still press ahead with its plans to develop its oil and gas reserves, but just not as a priority, he said. But Kenya's stance contrasts with other African hydrocarbon producing countries, such as Uganda, Nigeria and Senegal, which say that they need to tap their oil and gas resources to develop their economies.
The IEA, in its Africa Energy Outlook 2022, said that Africa's industrialisation will partly rely on exploiting its more than 5 trillion m³ of natural gas that has been discovered but not been approved for development. Cumulative greenhouse gas emissions from the use of these gas resources over the next 30 years would bring the continent's global emissions share to only 3.5pc, the IEA says.
As Africa is the continent most vulnerable to climate change, African leaders have depicted it as a victim of a crisis created by the industrialised world. As such, they insist that Africa will chart a "just energy transition" of its own choosing without being dictated to by the west. But at the Nairobi summit, they signalled more willingness to take part in the global shift away from fossil fuels — and to take advantage of the economic development opportunities this holds for Africa.
"The Africa Climate Summit asserted new leadership on global climate action from the continent most vulnerable to its impacts," E3G programme lead for climate diplomacy and geopolitics Alex Scott said. Ruto shepherded a declaration by African leaders calling for accelerated climate action, mobilising a massive scale of investment in green transition and adaptation in Africa, and reforming the finance system for fairer financing and debt management, Scott said.
Climate-positive thinking
World leaders should "appreciate that decarbonising the global economy is also an opportunity to contribute to equality and shared prosperity", the summit declaration says. "We urge world leaders to rally behind the proposal for a [global] carbon taxation regime including a carbon tax on fossil fuel trade, maritime transport and aviation," it adds. This could be supplemented by a global financial transaction tax to fund climate-positive investments, which should be ring-fenced from geopolitical and national interests, the declaration suggests.
African leaders also called for "a new financing architecture that is responsive to Africa's needs" and "collective global action to mobilise the necessary capital for both development and climate action". As part of this, they want to see debt restructuring and relief for African nations, a 10-year grace period on interest payments, an extension of sovereign loans, and debt repayment pauses when climate disasters strike. With these aims in mind, they suggest a new global climate finance charter should be developed through UN and Cop processes by 2025.
They also appealed for an increase in concessional finance to emerging economies, as well as reforms of the international financial system to ease the high cost of capital for African nations. "The scale of financing required to unlock Africa's climate-positive growth is beyond the borrowing capacity of national balance sheets, or at the risk premium that Africa is currently paying for private capital," the declaration says. Africa's annual climate finance needs total $250bn, but it only receives 12pc of this, according to the non-profit Climate Policy Initiative.
African leaders further called for a range of measures to "elevate Africa's share of carbon markets". The International Emissions Trading Association (Ieta) welcomed African countries' increasing interest in carbon markets and expressed hope that more would set up carbon pricing programmes to enable stronger national emissions-reduction contributions. But it baulked at the idea of a global carbon tax, which is "unlikely" to gain political traction, and highly difficult to manage centrally by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change or any organisation.
A more practical and speedy approach would be to expand the use of national carbon markets that recognise a common pool of international carbon credits, Ieta said. "This could channel large amounts of private-sector capital to climate mitigation opportunities in Africa under Article 6 of the Paris climate agreement."
The leaders called for global and regional trade mechanisms to be designed in such a manner that "African products can compete on fair and equitable terms". In support of this, they called for unilateral and discriminatory measures such as environmental trade tariffs to be eliminated. In return, they committed to aid global decarbonisation efforts by "leapfrogging traditional industrial development and fostering green production and supply chains on a global scale". They expressed concern that only 2pc of $3 trillion in renewable energy investments in the past decade have come to Africa, despite the fact that the continent has an estimated 40pc of the world's renewable energy resources, according to the declaration.
We're all in this together
African leaders called on the international community to contribute towards increasing the continent's renewable power generation to at least 300GW by 2030 from 56GW in 2022. Meeting this target will cost an estimated $600bn and will require a tenfold increase in capital flowing into Africa's renewable energy sector over the next seven years, they said. The UAE pledged $4.5bn to accelerate the development of clean energy projects, which far exceeded the pledges of other governments, such as the US, the UK and those in the EU.
Developed countries have come under fire after missing a goal set in 2009 to provide $100bn/yr in climate financing to developing countries by 2020. The target may finally be hit this year. Just a few days after the Africa Climate Summit, the G20 summit in Delhi echoed the Nairobi declaration's clarion call for an overhaul of the global financial system. The Delhi declaration included new language on the issue of global debt, proposed that the World Bank should be reformed to address the growing economic strains on poorer countries and advocated more financing to help vulnerable nations deal with the costs of climate change.
It also showed agreement on raising investment in energy transition and climate finance from "billions to trillions" of dollars. The declaration highlighted that $5.8 trillion-5.9 trillion was needed pre-2030 to help developing nations implement their nationally determined contributions, as well as $4 trillion/yr for clean energy technologies by 2030 to reach net zero emissions by 2050. Whether African countries can advance their call for a radical reform of the global financial system at Cop 28 will be key to affirming their proclaimed new leadership role in global climate talks.
Related news posts
Taipower settles term coal deals below spot rates
Taipower settles term coal deals below spot rates
Singapore, 12 September (Argus) — Taiwanese state-owned utility Taipower has settled its thermal coal term contracts with Australian producers at $137.44/t fob, below spot market rates, a source close to the matter said. Taiwanese buyers have traditionally referred to the fixed price in the term contracts between Switzerland-based mining and trading firm Glencore and Japanese utility Tohoku Electric Power for their deals. But prolonged stalling in price negotiations between Glencore and Tohoku has prompted Taipower to settle its contracts without the reference price. The settlement has not been officially confirmed by Taipower. Taipower's latest contract deal with its Australian suppliers signals a move away from the long-time practice of using the Glencore-Tohoku price, also known as the Japanese reference price (JRP), as a pricing cue. The price negotiations between Glencore and Tohoku for term contracts that start in April have historically involved the largest volume of coal supplied from Australia to Japan. The JRP serves as a reference for other Australian coal producers and Japanese utilities. It is also followed by other Asian coal buyers including those in Taiwan, Thailand and the Philippines. Taipower and its Australian suppliers agreed to the price of $137.44/t fob in July-August this year for GAR 6,322 kcal/kg coal, the source told Argus . The price applies to term contracts that run from January-December this year. Price negotiations for these contracts usually start in April of the same year, after the contracts have started running. Taipower has a few contracts with Glencore for the supply of Australian coal, but these contracts have not been settled because the two parties have yet to agree on the price, the source said. They expect to conclude price negotiations for these contracts by the end of September. The source did not disclose the volume involved in any of Taipower's term contracts. Taipower's settlement price was lower than the spot market rates at the time when the price was agreed upon. The price of high-calorific value (CV) NAR 6,000 kcal/kg coal rose in August to above $140/t fob, according to Argus' assessment. This was because traders anticipated greater demand for thermal coal on concerns about natural gas supply because of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The price of high-CV coal rose by 7pc from 2 August to 16 August, to $145.41/t fob Newcastle. It has since pulled back and was last recorded at $140.82/t fob on 6 September. Glencore may have tried to fix the JRP at $145.95/t fob through a smaller deal with a Japanese firm. It had signed a term contract with another Japanese firm that was not Tohoku in March at this price for the supply of high-CV Australian coal, market participants said at the time. Some Japanese utilities, steel mills and industrial users had followed the cue and settled their contracts at the same price. By Jinhe Tan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia’s Victoria seeks further gas storage capacity
Australia’s Victoria seeks further gas storage capacity
Singapore, 12 September (Argus) — The state Labor government of Victoria will introduce laws to allow offshore gas storage projects in its waters as it grapples with a predicted supply deficit because of declining Bass strait production. Victoria, which is Australia's largest user of household and commercial gas, will allow gas to be stored in empty gas reservoirs offshore in a bid to boost supply security, Victorian energy minister Lily D'Ambrosio said on 11 September. But the state's waters extend three nautical miles offshore, meaning the laws will not cover most of the state's depleted fields in the Otway and Gippsland basins which lie in federally administered zones. Victoria's largest storage is the 26PJ (694.3mn m³) onshore Iona facility in the state's west, owned by domestic gas storage firm Lochard Energy which plans to expand its capacity by 3PJ . But further capacity is needed to help bridge seasonal gaps, with the new laws possibly advancing privately-owned GB Energy's Golden Beach gas project, which could add 12.5PJ of storage to the grid. The Gippsland basin joint venture (GBJV) and Kipper Unit JV which feed the three Longford gas plants in the state's east have historically supplied about 60pc of southern states' gas, but operator Exxon plans to close one of the plants in July-October , cutting the 1.15 PJ/d facility's capacity to 700 TJ/d and further to 420 TJ/d later this decade. GBJV operated just 50 producing wells and six gas platforms in the 2024 southern hemisphere winter, with Exxon expecting a 70pc reduction in the number of wells from 2010 levels by next winter. The Australian Energy Market Operator's (Aemo) 2024 Victorian Gas Planning Report (VGPR) update confirmed the need for greater supply in Victoria, as declining demand would not offset the loss of supply from the GBJV. Peak southern state winter demand exceeds 2 PJ/d, but at full capacity, pipelines linking Queensland state's coal-bed methane fields to the southern states can meet only 20pc of such demand. Coal and gas-dependent Victoria this year approved its first nearshore gas project in a decade as the government softens its anti-gas stance. LNG import plans The possibility of LNG imports is firming in Victoria, with Australian refiner Viva Energy announcing public consultation has begun on its supplementary environmental effects statement (EES) for a planned floating storage and regasification unit, adjacent to its 120,000 b/d Geelong refinery. The Geelong LNG terminal would have the capacity to supply more than half of Victoria's current gas demand, Viva said on 12 September. The terminal's surplus gas could also flow into the connected southern states of South Australia, New South Wales and Tasmania. A public hearing into the proposal, which could see the import of 45 cargoes/yr, is expected to be held in December before an independent committee reports to the state's planning minister next year. Subject to a final investment decision, works could commence in 2026 to deliver first gas for winter 2028, Viva said, aligning with Aemo's expected shortfall of 50PJ in that year. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
China slowdown drags global oil demand: IEA
China slowdown drags global oil demand: IEA
London, 12 September (Argus) — A sharp slowdown in China continues to weigh on global oil demand growth, the IEA said today. In its latest Oil Market Report (OMR), the IEA sees China's demand increasing by just 180,000 b/d in 2024, compared with its forecast for 300,000 b/d last month and well below the 710,000 b/d it had projected in January. This was the main reason the IEA cut its 2024 global oil demand forecast by 70,000 b/d to 900,000 b/d. The Paris-based agency said year on year gains of just 800,000 b/d in the first half were the lowest since 2020 and based on "actual data received year-to-date." It sees demand growth remaining subdued in 2025 at 950,000 b/d, unchanged from last month's estimate. The gloomy outlook comes after China recorded a fourth consecutive oil monthly consumption decline in July, at 280,000 b/d, the IEA said. The Paris-based agency attributes the slowdown in China's oil use to a "broad-based economic slowdown and an accelerating substitution away from oil in favour of alternative fuels weigh on consumption." China is not the only country where oil demand is weaker than previously anticipated. The IEA halved its US oil demand growth estimate for this year to just 70,000 b/d, noting a sharp drop in gasoline deliveries in June. "With the steam seemingly running out of Chinese oil demand growth, and only modest increases or declines in most other countries, current trends reinforce our expectation that global demand will plateau by the end of this decade," the IEA said. The agency's latest medium term oil outlook sees world oil demand peaking at 105.6mn b/d in 2029. The IEA's latest projections add to concerns about the health of oil demand this year. Even Opec, which had until August kept its highly bullish oil demand forecast unchanged, has trimmed its expectations for this year and next although its 2024 projection of over 2mn b/d demand growth remains well above most other outlooks. Supply surplus incoming The IEA's forecast does not bode well for a plan by some members of Opec+ to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of voluntary cuts starting in December. "With non-Opec+ supply rising faster than overall demand — barring a prolonged stand-off in Libya — Opec+ may be staring at a substantial surplus [next year], even if its extra curbs were to remain in place," the agency said. The IEA's latest balances show a supply surplus of more than 1mn b/d in 2025. On global supply, the IEA lowered its growth estimate to 660,000 b/d compared with 730,000 b/d last month. But global growth next year could be as high as 2.1mn b/d even if all Opec+ cuts are maintained, the IEA said. The agency said global observed oil stocks declined for a second consecutive month in July, by 47.1mn bl, although it noted a steep build in oil products stocks to the highest since January 2021. The IEA attributes the recent oil price declines to demand-based fears centred on China and noted the falls came despite "hefty supply losses in Libya and continued crude oil inventory draws." By Aydin Calik Global oil demand/supply balance mn b/d Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia's CER undecided on SMC issuance details
Australia's CER undecided on SMC issuance details
Sydney, 12 September (Argus) — Australia's Clean Energy Regulator (CER) has not yet decided on the level of details that will be published alongside the upcoming safeguard mechanism credits (SMCs), while estimated issuance numbers remain within a "wide" range, delegates heard at a forum in Sydney. The regulator will start to issue SMCs early next year to safeguard facilities that report scope 1 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions below their annual baselines. Each SMC will represent 1t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) below a facility's baseline, which will have the option to either hold it for future use or sell it in the market. The CER has an estimated range of SMC issuance numbers for the July 2023-June 2024 compliance year, the first under Australia's reformed safeguard mechanism . But this range is "very wide" as several factors are at play, executive general manager Carl Binning told delegates at a safeguard mechanism forum organised by the regulator in Sydney on 11 September. SMC issuances will be "relatively modest initially" according to Binning, but volumes are expected to build up over time as companies intensify efforts to reduce emissions while baselines converge to industry averages. He declined to provide any internal estimates on SMC issuances. Australian companies need to submit their emissions and energy data under the National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting (NGER) scheme by 31 October, including covered emissions data for individual safeguard facilities. The CER is finalising the so-called energy intensity determinations for each facility, which will be used to set their baselines. Baselines will be based on a production-adjusted framework initially weighted towards site-specific emissions intensity values, transitioning to industry average emissions intensity levels by 2030. Under the reformed mechanism, facilities that emit more than 100,000t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in a fiscal year face declining baselines — at a rate of 4.9 pc/yr until 2030 — and need to surrender Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs) or SMCs if their onsite abatement activities were not enough to keep their emissions below thresholds. Australia's Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW) late last year estimated SMC issuances would start at around 1.4mn units in the 2024 financial year ending 30 June 2024, rising to 7.4mn in 2030 and 10.3mn in 2035. Facilities that fall below the coverage threshold of 100,000t CO2e can choose to continue receiving SMCs for up to 10 years — with their baselines continuing to decline if they opt in — and the DCCEEW expects such issuances will be the main source of SMCs by 2035 (see table). Uncertain data level All safeguard facilities will need to give a breakdown of the surrendered ACCUs by the method under which they were generated for the first time from the 2024 financial year, as well as a breakdown of their emissions by CO2, methane and nitrous oxide. The CER will publish 2023-24 safeguard data by 15 April 2025. But while the regulator will also need to publish the number of SMCs issued to a facility, there is still no definition on whether it will disclose where SMCs surrendered by facilities came from, Binning told delegates. "One of the issues we're really wrestling with in the design of our new registry is how much information we tag," Binning said. "I think the marketplace is interested in more granularity… so I'd actually invite feedback on this topic," he added. The CER expects that the new registry replacing the Australian National Registry of Emissions Units (ANREU) will be operational by the end of calendar year 2024. It plans to issue SMCs into the new registry and transfer all ACCUs from the ANREU "gradually" over the following months before the start of the next safeguard compliance period. By Juan Weik Projected SMC issuances (mn) Financial year From safeguard facilities From below-threshold facilities Total 2024 1.36 0.05 1.41 2025 1.62 0.13 1.75 2026 2.27 0.06 2.33 2027 3.20 0.26 3.46 2028 3.52 0.22 3.74 2029 4.34 0.54 4.88 2030 5.67 1.77 7.44 2031 5.31 1.92 7.23 2032 5.29 3.75 9.04 2033 6.77 3.47 10.24 2034 5.82 4.72 10.54 2035 4.80 5.51 10.31 Source: DCCEEW Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more