Three years to the month after passage of Brazil's 2021 natural gas market liberalization bill, the northeast region's gas market has become the most dynamic of the country's five regions.
Independent gas exploration companies hold 81pc of the market share in the northeast, compared to 22pc nationally, according to oil and gas regulator ANP, with state-controlled Petrobras holding 78pc of the national market.
Prices in the northeast are also more competitive, with independent producer prices averaging 30pc less than Petrobras' prices in the region, according to ANP.
While the March 2021 bill helped bring supply diversity nationwide — non-Petrobras supplies grew from 1pc market share in 2021 to 17pc in 2022 and 22pc in 2023 — the northeast also benefited from an earlier event. In 2019 competition regulator Cade forced Petrobras to divest assets, which allowed growth for producers in the northeast's largely-onshore production areas by companies such as Eneva, 3R, Petroreconcavo and Origem, all independent Brazilian companies.
But the northeastern market still faces hurdles. The massive Sergipe-Alagoas offshore gas production and transportproject, with the potential to develop the largest pipeline-connected gas field outside of the Campos and Santos basins in the southeast, is delayed. And the port of Pecem lacks expansion capacity, according to Marcio Felix, chief executive of independent oil and gas producers' group Abpip.
But a state-owned regasification terminal will be connected to the pipeline grid later this year. And the eventual development of Sergipe-Alagoas could increase available gas by 60pc by 2032, energy research company EPE's diretor Heloisa Borges said. The northeast will produce 53mn m³/d of gas in 2024-2025, 67mn m³/d in 2027 and 85mn m³/d by 2032, she said.
Despite the 2019 divestment agreement with Cade, Petrobras has dropped plans to sell the Bahia Terra cluster and the Manati offshore gas field, along with the Urucu cluster, in northern Amazonas state and requested Cade rework the agreement. Moves like this could slow the pace of market opening.
