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Brazil 1Q tallow exports triple on long-term contracts

  • : Agriculture, Biofuels, Oil products
  • 24/04/22

Brazilian beef tallow exports totaled 73,930 metric tonnes (t) in the first quarter, a three-fold increase from the same three-month period in 2023 on rising demand.

Almost 93pc of outflows between January and March were shipped to the US, according to data from Brazil's trade ministry.

Long-term contracts explain the rising flow of exports, even though spot market arbitrage was closed throughout the first quarter (see chart). The price of tallow in the Paranagua and Santos ports was $960/t fob on 19 April, keeping the arbitrage closed to US Gulf coast buyers, where the reference product was at $901/t on a delivered inland basis.

Brazilian tallow is also negotiated at a premium against soybean oil, which closed at $882/t fob Paranagua on 19 April. This scenario has been observed since the 1 December 2023 start of Argus' tallow export price assessment.

Historically, vegetable oil in Brazil was traded at a discount to tallow, but strong demand has boosted the price of animal fat. Some biodiesel plants have been purchasing used cooking oil (UCO) or pork fat as an alternative.

In 2023, there were doubts about whether the outflow of tallow from Brazil would be constant. Market participants now believe that the 2024 start of operations at new renewable diesel refineries in the US should sustain exports.

Local suppliers that have already signed supply guarantee contracts — some up to three years — with American buyers are also considering export opportunities with Asia, including a new renewable diesel plant in Singapore that could receive Brazilian cargoes.

Expansion projects are propelling US demand, including work that would bring capacity at Marathon Petroleum's Martinez Renewables plants in California to 2.35mn m³/y (40,750 b/d)and the Phillips 66 Rodeo unit in northern Californiato 3mn m³/y. These and other new projects will increase annual US demand for tallow by 5mn t.

Maintenance on the horizon

Maintenance at US refineries has Brazilian sellers bracing for a short-term drop in prices. Between May and June the Diamond Green Diesel (DGD) unit in Port Arthur, Texas, will shut down for maintenance, a stoppage that could impact demand for Brazilian inputs.

Market participants have already observed a slight increase in domestic tallow supply, a change they attribute to maintenance at DGD.

The advance of the soybean crop in Argentina is also expected to increase the supply of feedstocks to North American plants, as some refineries are returning to soybean oil after a hiatus of several years. The soybean oil quote on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) is an important reference for the price of tallow.

Renewable feedstocks in Brazil on fob basis R/t

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25/02/17

Japan’s economy grows in 2024

Japan’s economy grows in 2024

Osaka, 17 February (Argus) — Japan's economy expanded for a fourth consecutive year in 2024 as corporate investment increased, even as oil product demand fell. Gross domestic product (GDP) rose at an annualised rate of 2.8pc in October-December, according to preliminary government data released on 17 February, following growth of 1.7pc in July-September and 3pc in April-June. This sent Japan's full-year 2024 GDP up by 0.1pc from a year earlier, its fourth straight year of growth after a Covid-19 induced slump in 2020. Nominal GDP amount totalled ¥609.3 trillion ($4 trillion) in 2024, exceeding ¥600 trillion for the first time. Investment by private-sector companies rose by 1.2pc from a year earlier in 2024, recording annualised growth of 1.9pc in October-December. The rise partially reflected a government push for a green and digital transformation of the economy in line with its 2050 net-zero emission goal. Such spending is expected to continue to increase under Tokyo's economic stimulus package. Japanese business federation Keidanren has forecast that nominal capital investment could rise to ¥115 trillion in the April 2027 to March 2028 fiscal year, up by 7.5pc from an estimated ¥107 trillion in 2024-25. But private consumption, which accounts for more than 50pc of GDP, dropped by 0.1pc from a year earlier in 2024, as inflation capped spending by consumers. This also probably weighed on demand for oil products such as gasoline, despite government subsidies. Japan's domestic oil product sales averaged 2.4mn b/d in 2024, down by 5.2pc from a year earlier, according to data from the trade and industry ministry Meti. Gasoline sales, which accounted for 31pc of the total, dropped by 2.2pc to 752,700 b/d over the same period. But Japanese electricity demand edged up by 0.7pc year on year to an average of 98.8GW in 2024, according to nationwide transmission system operator the Organisation for Cross-regional Co-ordination of Transmission Operators. Stronger power demand reflected colder than normal weather in March and unusually hot weather in October. Japan's real GDP is predicted to rise by 1.2pc during the 2025-26 fiscal year, following predicted 0.4pc growth in 2024-25 and a 0.7pc rise in 2023-24, the Cabinet Office said on 24 January. The figures are the Cabinet Office's official estimates and form the basis of its economic and fiscal management policies. By Motoko Hasegawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

German election impacts on energy and mobility sectors


25/02/17
25/02/17

German election impacts on energy and mobility sectors

Hamburg, 17 February (Argus) — Germany heads to the polls on 23 February, with its political parties divided over how to revive the country's struggling economy and shape climate policy in the face of continued concern over high energy costs. How the next government's policies are shaped could significantly impact regional energy markets and Germany's role as a key player in the European economy over the next four years. But most parties appear in agreement over maintaining the outgoing government's stance on Russian gas. Opinion polls suggest that support for the conservative CDU/CSU party has cooled in recent months, but it is still expected to be tasked with forming the next government. It is all but impossible for one party to win an absolute majority in the German parliament, so parties typically have to form a coalition. Support for the far-right AfD has grown in recent months, but the party still trails by some distance in second place. The CDU/CSU says it will not form a coalition with the AfD, so barring a dramatic surge in support for the latter in the final days of campaigning, a CDU-led coalition — possibly including the Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens — is likely to be in charge by the end of the month. The AfD's stance on energy and climate change is largely at odds with most other parties, but the CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens have some common ground. They all acknowledge the Paris climate agreement and EU Green Deal and seek to adhere to emissions reduction mandates, and they all plan to extend the scope of the EU emissions trading system (ETS). The three parties' manifestos chime on a need to reduce energy prices — which are widely seen as a key factor in the downturn in German industrial output — while transitioning to cleaner forms of transport and prioritising climate protection. But the parties diverge on how best to achieve these goals. Many energy-intensive industries in Germany have struggled with high gas prices since Russia embarked on its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The three parties all say they will bring down energy prices by adjusting taxes and subsidies, and increasing power generation. The parties aim to cut network fees and electricity taxes as much as possible within the EU, and the SPD and Greens plan to encourage the European Commission to compensate energy-intensive industries for high power prices. The three all agree that further expanding renewable energy is the best way to reduce energy prices but, unlike the SPD and Greens, the CDU/CSU is unwilling to close coal-fired power plants until they are replaced, and it wants to assess whether it is technically and financially feasible to reactivate mothballed nuclear power plants. The AfD wants to expand coal-fired and nuclear generation and halt the expansion of solar and wind. Gas goals The CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens all support replacing fossil gas with hydrogen in power generation and manufacturing in the near future. How soon that can happen is up in the air. Industrial groups have cited hydrogen's high costs and constantly changing legal framework as barriers to its expansion, calling for the simplification of national and EU hydrogen legislation, the continuation of subsidies for domestic production, and more consumer incentives to substitute natural gas. But the CDU/CSU also wants to reverse the gas boiler ban introduced by the outgoing government, which mandated that new buildings install heating systems using at least 65pc renewable energy from January 2024. Instead, it proposes subsidising low-emission heating solutions — regardless of the technology on which they are based. If implemented, this could check the decline in residential gas demand, although gas consumption is likely to become less attractive after the heating and road sectors are included in the EU ETS from 2027, pushing gas costs up. The CDU/CSU has made it clear that it intends to continue adhering to the Paris and EU climate agreements, but says this is conditional on the "competitiveness of the German economy" and "social load limits". The AfD not only seeks to end putting a price on CO2 emissions altogether, it also wants to undo the EU emission reduction mandates as a whole. Crucially, none of the potential coalition partners plans to reverse course on Russian gas — unlike the AfD, which is calling for the lifting of all sanctions on Russia, including those on gas and oil imports into the EU. The AfD also intends to reopen the undamaged pipe B of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to restart flows of Russian gas to Europe, and repair and reopen the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipes that were damaged in September 2022. Vorsprung durch technik? On the question of the future of mobility in Germany, there is significant disagreement between the parties that might find themselves in a coalition government. While the SPD and Green party believe that e-mobility will be most relevant and want to maintain the ban on registering internal combustion engine (Ice) cars from 2035, the CDU and AfD advocate for "technology openness" and want to reverse these agreements. The SPD says that it wants Germany to remain a leader in car manufacturing, but with its focus on electric vehicles (EVs). In order to encourage consumers to buy EVs that are "made in Germany", it proposes tax cuts for domestically manufactured units. This might be a lesson learned from unintended consequences of the general subsidy for EV purchases that was phased out at the end of 2023 — this was as beneficial for foreign EV manufacturers as domestic ones. The Green party supports the same tax cuts, provided the car is mostly manufactured within Europe. The SPD and Green party also believe that eFuels should primarily be used in aviation or shipping, rather than on the road. They aim to establish a climate-neutral European aviation sector through rules to prevent ‘carbon leakage', with the Greens even aiming to make domestic flights unnecessary. The Conservatives and the AfD take a completely different approach — they believe that the market should decide which mode of mobility will prevail. Based on this belief, their main goal is to reverse the EU policy of banning new Ice car registrations from 2035. The CDU and AfD instead both aim to make Ice cars — probably running on eFuels — a financially competitive alternative to EVs. They do not believe it is the government's responsibility to influence markets in one way or another. For the AfD, this extends to not using public funds to finance vehicle charging infrastructure. The two parties also agree that EU fleet emission limits, or at least associated penalties, should be abolished to avoid subjecting the German car manufacturing industry to additional pressure. The CDU's lead in the polls — and the performance of the AfD — reflects the priorities of Germany's voters, which are focused most heavily on immigration and the state of the economy, with energy and climate policies much further down the list. The CDU leads approval ratings on expected handling of economic issues. So the party's view on how far Germany's shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy dovetails with reviving economic competitiveness could play a role in dictating the pace of the energy transition in Europe's largest economy in the years ahead. By Johannes Guhlke German power generation mix GW Change in gas demand by sector, y-o-y GWh/d German gas demand by year Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU nears lifting sanctions on Syria


25/02/17
25/02/17

EU nears lifting sanctions on Syria

Munich, 17 February (Argus) — The EU will meet on 24 February to discuss lifting sanctions on Syria, EU high representative for foreign affairs Kaja Kallas said on Sunday. But internal European politics and concerns raised by Greece and Cyprus over Turkey's growing influence in the region could slow the process. Speaking to Argus on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, Kallas said the prospect of lifting sanctions on Syria "is looking promising". The EU Foreign Affairs Council is scheduled to meet on 24 February to discuss Syria and other issues affecting the Middle East. France on 14 February convened an international conference on Syria in Paris, bringing together representatives from G7 nations, the EU, the UN, the Arab League, and the Gulf Cooperation Council. The parties issued a final statement calling for support of Syria's political transition, but the US did not join that statement. US sources with knowledge of the matter told Argus that the issues raised in the statement are things Washington has not decided on, since US president Donald Trump's administration is still formulating its policy regarding Syria. Another source with knowledge of ongoing European talks on Syria said Greece and Cyprus are more reluctant to lift sanctions on Syria. Any EU action will have to be agreed upon by all of the bloc's members. Both countries are leery of ties between Turkey and the Syrian Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the dominant faction in the new Syrian government. Greece and Cyprus are worried about an oversized Turkish influence in the eastern Mediterranean following the collapse of the regime of Bashar al-Assad in December. Sanctions remain one of the biggest obstacles to Syria's recovery. Damascus has been struggling to secure crude and refined oil products through public tenders largely because of those sanctions. Shipowners remain cautious about sending vessels there over concerns tankers being sanctioned or stranded. Last month the US waived sanctions prohibiting energy trade with Syria, but the country is still under EU and UK sanctions, which may have narrowed the pool for bidding. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Indonesia's gasoline imports hit record high in Dec


25/02/17
25/02/17

Indonesia's gasoline imports hit record high in Dec

Singapore, 17 February (Argus) — Indonesia, Asia-Pacific's largest gasoline importer, imported record high monthly volumes of gasoline in December 2024, according to GTT customs data. Indonesia imported 475,000 b/d of gasoline in December, up by 29pc on the month and 24pc on the year. Indonesia imported 378,500 b/d of gasoline in 2024 compared with 369,000 b/d in 2023. Singapore, a major gasoline blending hub, continued to be Indonesia's main supplier at 279,000 b/d of imports in December, followed by Malaysia at 97,000 b/d. The reason for the surge in import demand cannot be confirmed but could be because of an increase in Indonesia's 92R gasoline appetite as the government sought to introduce restrictions to ensure subsidised 90R gasoline fuel went to the targeted economic group. Indonesia's state-controlled refiner Pertamina issued a series of very prompt spot 92R gasoline tenders for loading in December. The prompt tenders arose because of an increase in domestic 92R gasoline demand, Indonesia-based gasoline traders said. This is a result of a combination of a narrower 90R and 92R price spread and the new restrictions, added a trader. The Singapore 92R gasoline crack spread, or the Argus Singapore 92R gasoline spot price against ICE Brent, averaged at $8.18/bl in December, as compared to an average of $5.47/bl in November, according to Argus' pricing data. By Aldric Chew Indonesia's gasoline import volume: GTT (b/d) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU may trigger clause to boost defense spending


25/02/15
25/02/15

EU may trigger clause to boost defense spending

Munich, 15 February (Argus) — European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen wants to trigger an emergency clause that would allow member EU countries to significantly increase their spending on defense. She also warned that "unjust" tariffs on the EU will not go unanswered. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference on Friday, Von der Leyen said she "will propose to activate the escape clause for defense investments". Such a move would "allow member states to substantially increase their defense expenditure", she said. Von der Leyen's proposal would exempt defense from EU limits on government spending. Highly indebted EU members such as Italy and Greece have voiced support for the move, arguing that activating the escape clause would enable them to increase defense spending while avoiding other budget cuts. Fiscally conservative EU countries, including Germany, could push back against the idea. Von der Leyen's proposal comes at a sensitive time for the EU, with US president Donald Trump pressuring Europe to finance more of its own defense. Trump wants EU members of Nato to more than double military expenditure to protect themselves from potential aggression rather than leaning on Washington's support. Trump is also pushing to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. "Let there be no room for any doubt. I believe when it comes to European security, Europe has to do more. Europe must bring more to the table," Von der Leyen said, adding that the EU needs to increase its military spending from just below 2pc of GDP to above 3pc. The increase "will mean hundreds of billions of euros of more investment every year", she said. Tariffs will be answered Von der Leyen also reemphasized the EU's position on the recent US tariff decision, noting that tariffs act like a tax and drive inflation. "But as I've already made clear, unjustified tariffs on the European Union will not go unanswered," she said. "And let me speak plainly, we are one of the world's largest markets. We will use our tools to safeguard our economic security and interests, and we will protect our workers, our businesses and consumers at every turn," she added. Trump on 11 February imposed a 25pc tariff on all US imports of steel and aluminum effective on 12 March, although he said he would consider making an exemption for imports from Australia. US 25pc tariffs on steel and aluminum imports could result in a 3.7mn t/yr decrease in European steel exports, as the US is the second-largest export market for the bloc, European steel association Eurofer said. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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