Brazil 1Q tallow exports triple on long-term contracts
Brazilian beef tallow exports totaled 73,930 metric tonnes (t) in the first quarter, a three-fold increase from the same three-month period in 2023 on rising demand.
Almost 93pc of outflows between January and March were shipped to the US, according to data from Brazil's trade ministry.
Long-term contracts explain the rising flow of exports, even though spot market arbitrage was closed throughout the first quarter (see chart). The price of tallow in the Paranagua and Santos ports was $960/t fob on 19 April, keeping the arbitrage closed to US Gulf coast buyers, where the reference product was at $901/t on a delivered inland basis.
Brazilian tallow is also negotiated at a premium against soybean oil, which closed at $882/t fob Paranagua on 19 April. This scenario has been observed since the 1 December 2023 start of Argus' tallow export price assessment.
Historically, vegetable oil in Brazil was traded at a discount to tallow, but strong demand has boosted the price of animal fat. Some biodiesel plants have been purchasing used cooking oil (UCO) or pork fat as an alternative.
In 2023, there were doubts about whether the outflow of tallow from Brazil would be constant. Market participants now believe that the 2024 start of operations at new renewable diesel refineries in the US should sustain exports.
Local suppliers that have already signed supply guarantee contracts — some up to three years — with American buyers are also considering export opportunities with Asia, including a new renewable diesel plant in Singapore that could receive Brazilian cargoes.
Expansion projects are propelling US demand, including work that would bring capacity at Marathon Petroleum's Martinez Renewables plants in California to 2.35mn m³/y (40,750 b/d)and the Phillips 66 Rodeo unit in northern Californiato 3mn m³/y. These and other new projects will increase annual US demand for tallow by 5mn t.
Maintenance on the horizon
Maintenance at US refineries has Brazilian sellers bracing for a short-term drop in prices. Between May and June the Diamond Green Diesel (DGD) unit in Port Arthur, Texas, will shut down for maintenance, a stoppage that could impact demand for Brazilian inputs.
Market participants have already observed a slight increase in domestic tallow supply, a change they attribute to maintenance at DGD.
The advance of the soybean crop in Argentina is also expected to increase the supply of feedstocks to North American plants, as some refineries are returning to soybean oil after a hiatus of several years. The soybean oil quote on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) is an important reference for the price of tallow.
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Canada rail strike to affect grains, industry says
Canada rail strike to affect grains, industry says
London, 3 May (Argus) — Strike action by workers at Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City could have significant repercussions for the country's grains market, according to industry body the Grain Growers of Canada (GGC). Members of the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference authorised a strike on 1 May. Industrial action at the two major Canadian railroad companies could begin as early as 22 May. The parties have now entered a mandatory period of mediation. The GGC has called for a resolution to be reached in this period that safeguards Canada's grains supply chain. Canadian grain trade operations are particularly dependant on rail logistics, with the vast majority of grain from producing regions transported to ports by rail — 94pc of all Canadian grain is transported by rail, according to the GGC. Disrupted logistics could limit grain storage capacity, which could result in less stock available for export and curb selling by farmers. This could cause importers to seek alternative grains origins. Members are "worried about the impact a strike would have [...] on Canada's reputation as a reliable supplier", the GGC said. "Consecutive supply chain disruptions have already strained our relationships with international buyers. Another stoppage could drive them to seek other markets, affecting us in the long term," GGC's second vice chair Brendan Phillips said. In the high-protein wheat market — one of Canada's major agricultural exports — buyers may turn to US-origin Hard Red Spring wheat as an alternative, traders in both regions told Argus . This could have a significant effect on the market. "In June 2023, Canada exported over 2.6mn t of grain, highlighting the potential economic loss of over $35mn for each day in June that a strike persists," the GGC said. That said, wheat exports accounted for around 1.7mn t of this volume, Argus -aggregated data show. Canada's wheat exports have increased significantly ahead of the long-term average pace in 2024, surpassing 2023 levels by 710,000t in the week to 28 April. Remaining stocks of the 2023-24 wheat crop are low, according to market participants, and with the winter wheat harvest not scheduled to begin until July, low stocks could shelter Canada's wheat market to some extent. By Megan Evans Canadian wheat (excl. durum) exports mn t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Oregon renewable diesel pours into CFP bank
Oregon renewable diesel pours into CFP bank
Houston, 2 May (Argus) — Rising renewable diesel deliveries helped grow the volume of Oregon Clean Fuels Program (CFP) credits available for future compliance by a record 30pc in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to state data released today. The roughly 253,000 metric tonne (t) increase in available credits from the previous quarter — bringing the total to 1.1mn t — illustrates the spreading influence of US renewable diesel capacity on markets offering the most incentives for their output. California and Oregon low-carbon fuel standard (LCFS) credit prices have tumbled as renewable diesel deliveries generate a surge of credits in excess of immediate deficit needs. LCFS credits do not expire. LCFS programs require yearly reductions to transportation fuel carbon intensity. Higher-carbon fuels that exceed the annual limits incur deficits that suppliers must offset with credits generated from the distribution to the market of approved, lower-carbon alternatives. Renewable diesel volumes in Oregon increased by 12pc from the previous quarter to about 37,000 b/d — more than double the volume reported in the fourth quarter of 2022. The fuel represented 24pc of the Oregon liquid diesel pool for the period, while petroleum diesel fell to 75pc. Renewable diesel generated 46pc of all new credits for the quarter, compared to the 14pc from the next-highest contributor, biodiesel. Deficit generation meanwhile shrank from the previous quarter. Gasoline deficits fell by 6.6pc from the third quarter as consumption fell by roughly the same amount. Gasoline use trailed the fourth quarter of 2022 by 7.1pc. Diesel deficits also shrank as renewable alternatives push it out of the Oregon market. Petroleum diesel deficits fell by 19pc from the previous quarter and consumption was 27pc lower than the fourth quarter of 2022. Spot Oregon credits have fallen by half since late September, when state data offered the first indications that renewable diesel that was already inundating the California market had found its way to the smaller Oregon pool. The quarter marks the first time Oregon credits available for future compliance have exceeded 1mn t. Oregon in 2022 approved program targets extending into next decade that target a 20pc reduction by 2030 and a 37pc reduction by 2035. An ongoing rulemaking process this year will consider changes to how the state calculates the carbon intensity of fuels and verifies the activity of participants, but will not touch annual targets. By Elliott Blackburn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Canadian rail workers vote to launch strike: Correction
Canadian rail workers vote to launch strike: Correction
Corrects movement of grain loadings from a year earlier in final paragraph. Washington, 2 May (Argus) — Workers at the two major Canadian railroads could go on strike as soon as 22 May now that members of the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) have authorized a strike, potentially causing widespread disruption to shipments of commodities such as crude, coal and grain. A strike could disrupt rail traffic not only in Canada but also in the US and Mexico because trains would not be able to leave, nor could shipments enter into Canada. This labor action could be far more impactful than recent strikes because it would affect Canadian National (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) at the same time. Union members at Canadian railroads have gone on strike individually in the past, which has left one of the two carriers to continue operating and handle some of their competitor's freight. But TCRC members completed a vote yesterday about whether to initiate a strike action at each carrier. The union represents about 9,300 workers employed at the two railroads. Roughly 98pc of union members that participated voted in favor of a strike beginning as early as 22 May, the union said. The union said talks are at an impasse. "After six months of negotiations with both companies, we are no closer to reaching a settlement than when we first began, TCRC president Paul Boucher said. Boucher warned that "a simultaneous work stoppage at both CN and CPKC would disrupt supply chains on a scale Canada has likely never experienced." He added that the union does not want to provoke a rail crisis and wants to avoid a work stoppage. The union has argued that the railroads' proposals would harm safety practices. It has also sought an improved work-life balance. But CN and CPKC said the union continues to reject their proposals. CPKC "is committed to negotiating in good faith and responding to our employees' desire for higher pay and improved work-life balance, while respecting the best interests of all our railroaders, their families, our customers, and the North American economy." CN said it wants a contract that addresses the work life balance and productivity, benefiting the company and employees. But even when CN "proposed a solution that would not touch duty-rest rules, the union has rejected it," the railroad said. Canadian commodity volume has fallen this year with only rail shipments of chemicals, petroleum and petroleum products, and non-metallic minerals rising, Association of American Railroads (AAR) data show. Volume data includes cars loaded in the US by Canadian carriers. Coal traffic dropped by 11pc during the 17 weeks ended on 27 April compared with a year earlier, AAR data show. Loadings of motor vehicles and parts have fallen by 5.2pc. CN and CPKC grain loadings fell by 4.3pc from a year earlier, while shipment of farm products and food fell by 9.3pc. By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Shell's 1Q profit supported by LNG and refining
Shell's 1Q profit supported by LNG and refining
London, 2 May (Argus) — Shell delivered a better-than-expected profit for the first quarter of 2024, helped by a strong performance from its LNG and oil product businesses. The company reported profit of $7.4bn for January-March, up sharply from an impairment-hit $474mn in the previous three months but down from $8.7bn in the first quarter of 2023. Adjusted for inventory valuation effects and one-off items, Shell's profit came in at $7.7bn, 6pc ahead of the preceding three months and above analysts' estimates of $6.3bn-$6.5bn, although it was 20pc lower than the first quarter of 2023 when gas prices were higher. Shell's oil and gas production increased by 3pc on the quarter in January-March and was broadly flat compared with a year earlier at 2.91mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d). For the current quarter, Shell expects production in a range of 2.55mn-2.81mn boe/d, reflecting the effect of scheduled maintenance across its portfolio. The company's Integrated Gas segment delivered a profit of $2.76bn in the first quarter, up from $1.73bn in the previous three months and $2.41bn a year earlier. The segment benefited from increased LNG volumes — 7.58mn t compared to 7.06mn t in the previous quarter and 7.19mn t a year earlier — as well as favourable deferred tax movements and lower operating expenses. For the current quarter, Shell expects to produce 6.8mn-7.4mn t of LNG. In the downstream, the company's Chemicals and Products segment swung to a profit of $1.16bn during the quarter from an impairment-driven loss of $1.83bn in the previous three months, supported by a strong contribution from oil trading operations and higher refining margins driven by greater utilisation of its refineries and global supply disruptions. Shell's refinery throughput increased to 1.43mn b/d in the first quarter from 1.32mn b/d in fourth quarter of last year and 1.41mn b/d in January-March 2023. Shell has maintained its quarterly dividend at $0.344/share. It also said it has completed the $3.5bn programme of share repurchases that it announced at its previous set of results and plans to buy back another $3.5bn of its shares before the company's next quarterly results announcement. The company said it expects its capital spending for the year to be within a $22bn-$25bn range. By Jon Mainwaring Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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