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IEA forecasts slower demand growth for EVs

  • : Battery materials
  • 24/04/23

Sales of electric vehicles (EVs) will continue to grow in most major markets this year, but at a slower rate, according to the latest Global EV Outlook report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Global EV sales this year are set to top 17mn, more than a fifth of total global vehicle sales, but growth is expected to slow in major markets compared with 2023.

Almost 14mn new EVs were registered last year, up by 35pc compared with 2022, with almost 95pc of EV sales coming from China, Europe and the US.

China is expected to account for over half of global EV sales this year, down from a share of around 60pc in the past two years, with sales expected to grow by 25pc on the year in 2024, passing 10mn for the first time.

Sales in the US are expected to grow by 20pc on the year to almost 500,000, accounting for an estimated one of every nine new vehicles sold in the country.

Growth in Europe is expected to be the weakest of the three, predicted to rise by just 10pc to around 3.5mn units in 2024. The phase-out of EV subsidies in Germany and other countries is expected to weigh on demand, although EVs are still forecast to account for around a fifth of all vehicle sales in the EU.

Smaller markets such as Vietnam and Thailand are expected to grow by 15pc and 10pc, respectively, this year.

Under the IEA's stated policies scenario, EVs make up half of all car sales by 2035, reducing oil demand by over 10mn b/d, equivalent to the amount used for road transport in the US today.

Chinese exports are expected to rise this year, after more than 60pc of Chinese EVs sold in 2023 were lower in price than their internal combustion engine (ICE) equivalents. Purchase prices for ICE cars remained cheaper on average in the US and EU.

China's largest carmaker BYD hit record monthly export sales in March, as nationwide exports continued to grow, raising concerns from US and EU officials about whether their carmakers will be able to compete.

Charging point installations are also set to increase, after a 40pc rise in 2023 from a year earlier and with particularly strong growth for fast chargers. Charging networks will need to grow sixfold by 2035 to meet EV sales targets set by governments, according to the report.

The IEA also said that policy makers must make sure that the supply of electricity is secure, affordable and emissions-light, while ensuring that electricity demand does not outstrip grid capacity during the transition to EVs.


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25/02/18

BYD plans give solid-state batteries clearer timeline

BYD plans give solid-state batteries clearer timeline

Beijing, 18 February (Argus) — The rollout of electric vehicle (EV) solid-state batteries has been given a clearer timeline after China's largest EV producer BYD unveiled plans to launch massive production of such vehicles around 2030. "We will start demonstration in 2027 and achieve large-scale production around 2030," Sun Huajun, chief technology officer at BYD Lithium Battery, said at the second China All-Solid-State Battery Innovation and Development Summit Forum on 16 February. The firm has started feasibility studies into the industrialisation of solid-state batteries, covering key material technology, cell system development and production line construction, Sun added. BYD rolled out a 60 ampere hour all-solid-state battery last year. Its new energy vehicle (NEV) sales surged by 41pc to more than 4.27mn units in 2024, accounting for 27pc of global sales. It is also a major battery manufacturer, with almost 154GWh installed last year, accounting for 17pc of global EV battery installations, industry data show. This timeline is later than earlier predictions by some domestic automakers and research institutions, as most of them said last year that they will deploy full solid-state batteries at their own EV brands from 2025 and start mass production in 2026 or 2027. Solid-state batteries with a longer EV driving range, smaller size and safer performance are considered the main development direction for the next generation of power batteries, but there are several challenges restricting mass production, particularly significantly higher costs. More than 100GWh of solid-state battery capacity is being planned in China, according to industry estimates, but it remains uncertain when they will be turned into real production, and some of the capacity is for solid-liquid hybrid batteries. "To realise the industrialisation of solid-state batteries, we still need to solve the problems with the technology, process and cost," Miao Wei, former minister at China's ministry of industry and information technology said at the same forum. "Looking at the current progress of global research and development, the technology to support massive production is yet to mature. There will be small-scale production around 2027." Several EV and battery producers have unveiled development plans or announced production launches for solid-state batteries in the past few years, but many are semi-solid-state batteries that have lower EV driving ranges, according to market participants. "Semi-solid-state batteries still belong to the category of liquid batteries. We should not get the two mixed up," Miao added. But the development of such batteries is expected to boost the adoption of EVs in the longer term, because anxiety over driving ranges is one of the main reasons why many potential buyers have not opted to buy an EV, especially in China. Some full-solid-state batteries being developed can support a driving range of more than 1,000km. China last year unveiled a plan to devote 6bn yuan ($829mn) to accelerate development of such batteries. Chinese consumers bought fewer NEVs than gasoline vehicles in January for a second straight month, while gasoline demand picked up thanks to the lunar new year holiday, when people typically drive long distances to hometowns. NEV refers to battery electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrids and fuel cell vehicles in the country. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Peru backs Saudi critical minerals hub plan


25/02/15
25/02/15

Peru backs Saudi critical minerals hub plan

Munich, 15 February (Argus) — Peru's foreign minister Elmer Schialer today said he supports US policy backing Saudi Arabia's efforts to become a global critical minerals powerhouse, a strategy that aims to counterbalance China's dominance and bring down costs. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Schialer called the US approach "a good strategy". Schialer was responding to a question on whether the US' backing of Saudi Arabia's efforts to become a critical minerals refining and processing hub was a good idea. "I think we ought to give it a try, because when we have two, three or four main centers of refinement and the finalizing the product, the cost will also eventually go down, which is also very important, economically speaking," Schialer said. Led by the US, western countries are keen to loosen China's stranglehold on access to critical minerals. China controls about 90pc of the world's capacity for processing the minerals and has steadily tightened restrictions on exporting the materials and technology needed to process them. Beijing imposed new restrictions on exports to the US in late January in response to President Donald Trump's tariffs on imports to the US from China. Saudi Arabia in recent years has made strides in positioning itself on the global critical minerals map. As part of its economic diversification plan Vision 2030, the kingdom aims to strengthen local processing and industrial value added, while building supply chains that are more resilient to global disruptions. Saudi Arabia also has reiterated its commitment to developing its substantial reserves of copper, gold, rare earths, potash, and bauxite, while also expanding domestic electric vehicle manufacturing. Riyadh in January unveiled plans to develop a new mineral investment project valued at $100bn, $20bn of which was already in the final engineering phase or under construction. The kingdom's Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources increased its estimate of the value of its unexploited mineral resources from $1.3 trillion to $2.5 trillion in early 2024, boosted by new discoveries. State-controlled Aramco has also created a joint venture with Saudi state mining company Ma'aden to explore and produce energy transition minerals. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

DeepSeek AI integration to boost long-term metal demand


25/02/13
25/02/13

DeepSeek AI integration to boost long-term metal demand

Beijing, 13 February (Argus) — Increasing integration of DeepSeek's artificial intelligence (AI) models in China is likely to boost long-term demand for metals used in AI infrastructures and products, according to market participants. China's three largest telecommunications companies — China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom — have integrated DeepSeek's open source models, and provided exclusive computing power solutions and supporting environments for the DeepSeek-R1 model to help release the performance of the model, the country's industry and information technology ministry said on 9 February. Other major Chinese technology firms including Alibaba, Baidu and Tencent have also announced integration of DeepSeek's models into their cloud platforms. This is likely to accelerate these companies' development of intelligent applications. The country's largest electric vehicle (EV) maker BYD, which sold around 4.2mn EVs last year in China, on 11 February announced plans to integrate software from DeepSeek into 21 of its EV models, enabling the automaker to offer advanced autonomous driving features on all of its 18 models priced above 100,000 yuan ($13,686). DeepSeek's models offer performance for a low price, with its training cost reportedly significantly lower than other large language models. It provides responses comparable to other contemporary large language models, such as OpenAI's GPT-4o. The roll-out of DeepSeek's models is expected to provide low-cost, high-efficiency intelligent services for small and medium-sized companies and individual users, reduce the threshold for the use of AI technology, and accelerate the inclusion of AI technology. Metals demand This development is also likely to boost long-term demand for metals, particularly copper, aluminum, tungsten, molybdenum, gallium, germanium, battery metals and rare earths. AI operations rely on a large number of servers and data centres, with copper widely used in power distribution, grounding and interconnection of the data centres. Global copper demand from data centres is projected to exceed 1mn t by 2026, according to industry estimates. Rapid development of the AI industry is also boosting copper demand in grid systems. Aluminum is used in some cooling and structural components of data centres. Demand for indium phosphide (inP) photonic integrated circuit (PiC) technology from the data centre industry is also growing rapidly, driven by the heavy computing workloads required to support AI. AI growth and data centre demand is also expected to increase the use of compound semiconductor materials including gallium nitride and gallium arsenide. Molybdenum and tungsten can be used to manufacture high-temperature components and electrode materials used in some high-end AI hardware equipment. Rare earth metals also have key applications in AI-related magnetic and optical materials. A faster development of AI products has the potential to increase demand for neodymium iron and boron (NdFeB) material used in special micro-motors and servo motors, rare earth polishing powder used in wafer devices and rare earth magnets used in audio products. Some main domestic smartphone manufacturers such as Huawei, Honor and Oppo have also integrated DeepSeek's services into their products. This is likely to accelerate the development and consumer adoption of AI smartphones. Earlier industry estimates showed that shipments of AI smartphones would rise to 550mn units globally in 2027, making up more than 40pc of total phone shipments. About 30pc of cobalt and 7pc of global lithium production is consumed in the consumer electronics industry. Challenges DeepSeek's development is facing challenges outside China. The DeepSeek application was removed from Italy's app store in January owing to alleged data security concerns. Australia has banned the use of DeepSeek's technology on all government devices. Japanese companies such as Toyota, Mitsubishi and SoftBank have banned the use of DeepSeek for "information security issues". Texas in February became the first US state to ban the use of DeepSeek on government equipment. But the western countries' anxiety about DeepSeek may spur the development of their own AI industries. US president Donald Trump said that DeepSeek was a "wake-up call" for the US technology industry. South Korea's acting president Choi Sang-moo views DeepSeek as a "new impact", planning to pour 34 trillion won ($23.5bn) into the development of the AI and semiconductor industries. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Tesla sales slump on ageing line up, competition


25/02/12
25/02/12

Tesla sales slump on ageing line up, competition

London, 12 February (Argus) — US firm Tesla's electric vehicle (EV) sales have continued to fall this year — but as a result of structural factors, such as increased competition, duties and the arrival of Chinese carmakers in the market, and not because of chief executive Elon Musk's public profile, market participants have told Argus . Tesla's European sales fell by 11pc in 2024, having risen by 56pc in 2023 (see graph) . In January 2025, Tesla's sales fell by 63pc on the year in France, 59.5pc in Germany, 44.3pc in Sweden, and 37.9pc in Norway. The smaller 7.8pc fall in the non-EU UK could be explained by the different tariff regime. Some Tesla models sold in Europe are manufactured in Shanghai, and the UK has decided not to impose tariffs on Chinese-made EVs, while the EU imposed a 7.8pc duty on Tesla's Chinese-made EVs in October. Demand for Teslas in the UK, France, Germany and US began to decline in April last year, according to Ben Marks, founder of Electrify Research. Marks also pointed to "notable drops in July and October, by which time Tesla had fallen from the first to fourth-placed brand — trailing Audi, BMW and VW". According to a survey conducted last month by car testers Electrifying.com, of 455 non-EV drivers, 56pc would be happy to buy Chinese, while 59pc have been put off buying a Tesla by the public profile of chief executive Elon Musk, although some market participants pointed to other problems. "Tesla's problems are likely not to do with British motorists' perceptions of Elon Musk, and more to do with the fact that Tesla haven't released a new car since the Model Y, while its competitors have been playing catch-up," independent transport research organisation New AutoMotive's chief executive, Ben Nelmes, said. And with Chinese EV makers now in Europe, and over 130 mainstream EV models available in the UK, "competition has never been fiercer", Electrifying.com chief executive Ginny Buckley told Argus . "[Tesla's] dominance is no longer guaranteed." Meanwhile, Slovakian battery maker InoBat's vice-chair, Andy Palmer, said Tesla "needs to think long and hard about its positioning and product offers if it wants to stop bleeding market share". Tesla models also rely on production of a battery chemistry that is increasingly concentrated in China (see graph) . Standard-range versions of Tesla's best-selling Model 3 and Model Y both use lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, rather than premium nickel-cobalt-manganese-based (NCM) batteries. And while input costs of LFP-based EVs have edged down to a discount to NCM-based EVs (see graphs) , domestic LFP production has enabled Chinese carmakers such as BYD to sell their models at prices that are increasingly competitive with Tesla . Tesla better placed to cope than legacy carmakers Tesla's Model Y is still comfortably the best-selling EV model, according to research firm Jato Dynamics. "One of the things with car sales, particularly retail sales — it's not logical, otherwise everyone would drive a Toyota Corolla. People drive the new shiny things. Tesla used to be the shiny thing with the Model Y, but not so much now," the founder of ratings service The Car Expert, Stuart Masson, told Argus . Until recently, Tesla "showed you don't have to make design changes for the sake of it" according to Masson, going against prevailing wisdom. Tesla's cars often still topped ratings for safety, battery efficiency and technology after 3-4 years on the road. Tesla is "better placed to cope" with Chinese competition because it "doesn't have a lot of legacy infrastructure", Masson added. The firm has never had dealers, as conventional carmakers have, or big showrooms that require steady monthly sales. Instead, it operates its own showrooms and interacts with customers directly over the internet, cutting out the middleman used by established dealer networks. Volkswagen, by contrast, "can't sack anyone in Germany because of the unions and local government that have seats on the board; they veto any attempts", Masson said. "It's haemorrhaging money, and it knows full well that most expensive factories are in Germany, but it can't get rid of them." Volkswagen Group's operating profit dropped by 42pc on the year to €2.9bn in the third quarter of 2024 and its operating margin was just 3.6pc. Tesla also makes a much bigger profit from EVs than any western car company, so it can better afford to reduce prices. The firm is also now much more than just a carmaker, Masson added, having launched an energy storage gigafactory in Shanghai this week. "From cars to battery storage, superchargers, robo-taxis and robo-vans, they've launched several concepts that have never gone to production, but they tend to find their feet in every market," Masson said. "I think it will still be okay, but we're not going to see continued growth of 100pc per year … I think there are a lot of car companies that are in far more trouble." By Chris Welch Tesla annual BEV sales in Europe China monthly battery production GWh NCM EV input material price model $ LFP EV input material price model $ Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

China’s BYD to add DeepSeek AI to its affordable EVs


25/02/11
25/02/11

China’s BYD to add DeepSeek AI to its affordable EVs

London, 11 February (Argus) — China's largest electric vehicle (EV) maker BYD on Tuesday announced plans to integrate software from AI start-up DeepSeek into 21 of its models at no extra cost, including one model under $10,000. All models with the God's Eye advanced driver assistant software (ADAS) will come at no extra cost, chairman Wang Chuanfu told an event livestreamed from Shenzhen. Chuanfu said autonomous driving would no longer be a rarity but a "necessary tool", one that will become an "indispensable tool like safety belts and airbags" within a few years. BYD said it would offer advanced autonomous driving features on all of its 18 models priced above 100,000 yuan ($13,686). The carmaker will also include AI on three models below Yn100,000. BYD had previously only offered ADAS on models above $30,000, in line with US EV maker Tesla, which has similar features on its EVs priced above $32,000. The system includes remote parking and autonomous highway navigation. Smart driving features in EVs require Argus -assessed metals such as gallium — in gallium nitride — and germanium in semiconductors. AI growth and data centre demand is expected to increase the use of compound semiconductor materials including gallium nitride, gallium arsenide and indium phosphide. BYD sold around 4.2mn EVs last year in China — including battery EVs (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) — dominating the domestic market of 11mn EVs, up by 40pc on the year (see graphs) . DeepSeek integration threatens exports The integration of AI into BYD cars is the latest indication that competition in the Chinese EV market is hotting up, although several market participants fear that the integration of DeepSeek AI may threaten sales into export markets, particularly the US, where there is antipathy towards Chinese AI. Chinese EV maker Leapmotor, partner of carmaker Stellantis in Europe, launched its own smart-driving EV on Tuesday priced under Yn150,000 ($20,535), using its own AI. Prior to BYD, the cheapest affordable EV with comparable smart driving features was SAIC-GM-Wuling's $15,000 Baojun Yunhal model. Other Chinese EV makers have also announced integration of DeepSeek technology into their models. Chinese carmaker Geely Group — parent to brands such as Volvo and Polestar — announced that it will integrate the DeepSeek R1 model into its EVs, alongside its own Xingrui AI model, which it announced that it was training last month. It has largely distinguished software in its Geely brand The future of EVs is an "electric intelligence vehicle", Pan Jian, co-chair of CATL , the world's largest battery maker, said at the World Economic Forum last month, with intelligence fast becoming inseparable from EVs. By Chris Welch Global EV battery installations 2023-24 GWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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