Baltic April gas consumption rises on year

Gas demand in the three Baltic states and Finland was up by 26pc on the year in April, although there were diverging trends in the different markets.

Consumption in Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania totalled 3.56TWh, up from 2.82TWh a year earlier but down from 4.31TWh in March (see data and download, graph). That said, total demand was still well below the 2018-21 average for the month of 5.03TWh.

Consumption was up on the year in all three Baltic countries, but Finnish demand edged down. This was the first month in which Finnish demand was lower on the year since April 2023. In contrast, Lithuanian consumption surged by nearly 50pc on the year, and was also higher than in February and March despite the end of the traditional heating season.

Gas-fired power generation held broadly stable from a year earlier, totalling 305MW across the four countries compared with 301MW in April last year (see gas-fired output table). Output edged down in Estonia and Lithuania and dropped by 25MW in Finland, but this was offset by a 31MW increase on the year in Latvia. But, unlike in March, gas-fired output fell by 246MW, a large contributing factor to the lower gas demand on the month. Many combined heat and power plants will have switched off at around the end of March or mid-April as the traditional heating season came to a close, possibly driving the fall in gas-fired output. But renewables generation was also stronger in April than March, particularly in Finland, where wind output rose to 2.03GW from 1.63GW, while hydro also stepped up. In Lithuania, solar and waste-based production increased on the month.

Demand was also stronger despite higher year-on-year minimum temperatures in all four capital cities, which may have curbed most residual heating demand after the end of the traditional heating season, although there was a brief cold snap towards the middle of the month that temporarily drove up demand (see temperatures table).

With gas-fired power generation only marginally higher than a year earlier, and the warmer weather curbing residential demand, a possible uptick in industrial demand may have driven the aggregate rise in consumption.

Average prices on the regional GET Baltic exchange were €33.30/MWh in April, up by 8pc on the month but 30pc lower than a year earlier, the exchange said. Prices increased in around the middle of April "due to the unexpectedly cold weather and the increased demand for gas in the market", but then fell again "as the weather warmed", GET Baltic chief executive Giedre Kurme said. There were a total of 2,400 transactions last month for a combined 642GWh of gas. Volumes sold on the Finnish market accounted for 42pc, the joint Latvian-Estonian market 33pc, and the remaining 25pc was sold in Lithuania.

Klaipeda and Balticconnector to change flows

The return of the Finnish-Estonian Balticconnector pipeline and the start of maintenance at the Klaipeda LNG terminal in Lithuania will drive changed flow patterns this month.

The Balticconector resumed commercial operations on 22 April after being off line since 8 October following a rupture caused by a dragging ship anchor. The reconnection of Finland to its southern neighbours has allowed for strong southward flows since 22 April, at an average of 62 GWh/d on 22 April-7 May.

Some of this gas is probably being injected into storage, with the region's only facility at Incukalns switching to net injections on 23 April from net withdrawals of 7 GWh/d earlier in the month. Net injections have since averaged 46 GWh/d on 23 April-6 May, the latest data from EU transparency body GIE show. Stocks at Incukalns ended the withdrawal season on 30 April at 11.29TWh, the highest since at least 2014 and well above the previous high from last year of 9.03TWh. Large volumes of gas that had been stored over the previous summer for export to Finland over the winter were left stranded in Incukalns after the Balticconnector went off line.

And the Klaipeda LNG terminal began maintenance on 1 May, which will last until 15 June, as the terminal's Independence floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) departed for dry-docking in Denmark. As a result, there were net exports from Poland to Lithuania for the first time since early November, at an average of 17 GWh/d on 1-7 May. Some of this gas could have been withdrawn from Ukrainian storage, with flows from Ukraine to Poland averaging 10 GWh/d over the same period. Lithuania's largest supplier Ignitis has said it stored some volumes in Ukraine. And flows at the Kiemenai border point with Latvia have also flipped towards Lithuania, averaging 11 GWh/d on 1-7 May, compared with net flows towards Latvia of 15 GWh/d in April. That said, there were no flows at the point on 6-26 April.

By Brendan A'Hearn

Finnish and Baltic April consumption by country GWh