News
26/11/04
Cop 30 fossil fuel roadmap backs existing momentum
Edinburgh, 4 November (Argus) — Brazil's international roadmap on transitioning
away from fossil fuels sets the scene for productive informal talks on the topic
at the UN Cop 31 climate conference in Antalya next week, after discussions
among voluntary countries gathered pace this year. Brazil presented its global
roadmap this week — a blueprint for countries to act at supply and demand levels
to cut dependency on oil, gas and coal and reduce planet-warming emissions —
having pledged to do so when it hosted Cop 30. Brazil hopes this will inspire
more countries to publish roadmaps, after a year of discussions on the fossil
fuel transition among so-called coalitions of the willing, boosted by the crisis
in the Middle East. France, Germany and the Netherlands have published roadmaps
and more could do so at Cop 31, according to Dutch climate minister Stientje van
Veldhoven. Three of nearly 200 parties to the Paris agreement is small, but
sends a signal on fossil fuel demand, observers said. Some said the roadmaps
could have been more ambitious, however, considering the world is on course to
exceed the accord's temperature goal . Fossil fuel emissions accounted for 74pc
of carbon emissions in 2025, mostly from power generation, industry and
transport, according to EU data. Cutting fossil fuel emissions is key to meet
the 1.5°C temperature limit pursued by the Paris agreement and reinforced at Cop
28 in Dubai. For countries particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate
change, keeping to the goal is an imperative, and Pacific island states have
begun talks on a roadmap. Fossil fuel producer talks No roadmaps have been
published by major fossil fuel producing countries, although some appear in the
making. Brazil said it would release one this year, and Norway is due to publish
its sustainable transition strategy in 2027, saying "the work must be viewed in
the light of prospects for lower petroleum activity in the decades ahead". The
UK government is discussing how to represent what it has in place and could
constitute a roadmap, according to UK climate envoy Rachel Kyte. Producers are
increasingly part of the discussion. The UK and Norway, along with Canada,
Angola, Mexico, Brazil, Senegal and Australia, were among 60 countries gathered
at the first conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels, in Santa Marta,
Colombia, in May. These represented about 20pc of global oil production and a
third of oil consumption, according to the organisers. The effects of the
US-Iran war have increased the focus on domestic renewable energy in importing
countries, and in producing countries whose revenue depend on energy
commodities. The energy crisis resulting from the war could "act as an
accelerator of the energy transition", TotalEnergies said this week. Some
nations' economic dependency on fossil fuels needs to be recognised in
transition discussions, Cop 30 chief executive Ana Toni said, echoing the views
of many developing fossil fuel producers in Latin America and Africa, which have
called on developed nations to lead the way. Mexico said this year that
transitioning requires an orderly and gradual approach, because of the
implications on country's economy and employment. The Cop 30 fossil fuel
transition roadmap and discussions throughout this year have started to address
this and the need for countries to work on different timelines. Countries can
begin acting regardless of their starting point, but the transition requires
careful co-ordination. Importer-producer The Cop 30 presidency said in its
roadmap that fossil fuel production needs to decline alongside demand,
highlighting the importance of co-operation between producing and importing
countries in future planning. In July, the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (Boga),
an international alliance launched at Cop 26 and spearheaded by Denmark and
Costa Rica, convened a high-level dialogue on responses to the fossil fuel
crisis. It included EU countries, fossil fuel producer Ghana and Sierra Leone
where Shell has an exploration agreement for several offshore oil blocks.
Discussions touched on how "producer-consumer co-ordination" could build
resilience. The meeting followed Boga's closed-door major producer dialogue with
the EU where producer-consumer co-ordination was also a topic. Boga also works
through a $20mn fund with oil and gas producers Brazil, Colombia, Nigeria,
Kazakhstan, Chad and Trinidad and Tobago on transition planning and economic
diversification and has opened another call for interest with the NDC
partnership aimed at fossil fuel producers. "Consumer-producer" discussions were
also at the heart of a dialogue organised by the UK and Brazil after the Santa
Marta conference. The event explored how to mobilise co-ordinated international
support for developing fossil fuel-producing countries, building on the Cop 30
presidency roadmap work. Developing countries want to work on "the complicated
elements of the transition" such as managing fossil fuel assets as demand
declines, according to the UK's Kyte. By Caroline Varin Send comments and
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