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Indian budget lifts spending for refining, crude SPR

  • : Crude oil, Oil products
  • 24/07/24

India allocated 1.19 trillion rupees ($14.2bn) to the oil ministry in its budget for the 2024-25 fiscal year ending 31 March, up from Rs1.12 trillion in the 2023-24 revised budget.

The budget presented by finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman on 23 July was the first since the BJP-led administration was re-elected in June.

Indian state-controlled refiner IOC was allocated Rs273bn for 2024-25, up from Rs270bn in the revised budget for 2023-24. Bharat Petroleum (BPCL) received an increased allocation of Rs110bn, up from 95bn, while Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL) was allotted Rs107bn that was up from Rs102bn previously. No capital support was allocated to the oil marketing companies in the budget given IOC, BPCL and HPCL all reported record profits in 2023-24.

India's crude import dependency rose to 88.3pc in April-June from 88.8pc the previous year, oil ministry data show. India's crude imports during January-June were up by around 1pc on a year earlier at 4.65mn b/d, according to Vortexa data.

ONGC's allocation rose to Rs308bn for 2024-25, while fellow state-controlled upstream firm Oil India's increased to Rs68bn from Rs305bn and Rs56bn rupees respectively in the revised budget for 2023-24.

India has been trying to reduce its dependence on imports and will offer 25 oil and gas blocks in the tenth bidding round in August or September under the Hydrocarbon Exploration and Licensing Policy's Open Acreage Licensing Programme (OALP). It offered 136,596.45km² in 28 upstream oil and gas blocks in the ninth bidding round.

ONGC in January secured seven of the 10 areas of exploration blocks offered under India's eighth OALP round. A private-sector consortium of Reliance Industries and BP, Oil India and private-sector Sun Petrochemicals received one block each.

Allocation for the Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) received a push to Rs4.08bn for the construction of caverns under its second phase against Rs400mn in the previous budget. The first phase of India's SPR built 1.33mn t (9.75mn bl) of crude storage at Vishakhapatnam, 1.5mn t at Mangalore and 2.5mn t at Padur.

A provision of Rs119.25bn was made for LPG subsidies in 2024-25 compared with spending of Rs122.4bn in 2023-24.


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25/02/10

Nigeria Dangote targets full capacity within a month

Nigeria Dangote targets full capacity within a month

London, 10 February (Argus) — Nigeria's privately-owned 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery could reach maximum operating capacity within a month, according to sources with knowledge of the matter who said the plant touched 85pc of nameplate capacity at the end of January. The stated goal appears ambitious, with data from Kpler and Vortexa showing Dangote ran at an implied range of 395,000-430,000 b/d to date this month, which is between 61-66pc of capacity. The implied range was 350,000-400,000 b/d in January, or 54-62pc operating capacity. Argus pegged Dangote's crude receipts at 405,000 b/d in January, a record. Dangote runs may be boosted by upstream regulator NUPRC's decision in early February to ensure Nigeria's crude is supplied to meet domestic refinery demand, before it issues crude export permits. Routine maintenance at state-owned NNPC's 125,000 b/d Warri refinery could have made more domestic crude available for Dangote use. Crude allocations to Warri were cancelled and offered out to the wider market last week, according to a market participant. But this would have been a short-term measure, with a source saying the work at Warri was completed as of 9 February, and around 1.15mn bl of crude are scheduled to be pumped to the plant. Downstream regulator NMDPRA projected that Dangote will require 550,000 b/d of Nigerian crude grades for the period January–June 2025, while NNPC's 210,000 b/d Port Harcourt and 125,000 b/d Warri plants will require 60,000 b/d and 75,000 b/d, respectively. Nigeria produced 1.51mn b/d of crude in January, according to Argus' estimate. Warri restarted at the end of 2024, having been offline since 2019. Diesel loadings from the refinery have averaged eight trucks per day, sources said last week, with sufficient supply available to sustain ongoing truck load-out operations. Warri has not started producing gasoline, according to sources. By George Maher-Bonnett, Adebiyi Olusolape and Sanjana Shivdas Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico inflation slows to 4-year low in January


25/02/10
25/02/10

Mexico inflation slows to 4-year low in January

Mexico City, 10 February (Argus) — Mexico's consumer price index (CPI) eased to an annual 3.59pc January, the lowest in four years, as deceleration in agriculture prices offset faster inflation in energy and consumer goods prices. This marks the lowest annual inflation since January 2021 and a significant slowdown from July's annual peak of 5.57pc, which was driven by weather-impacted food prices. The result, reported by statistics agency Inegi on 7 January, was slightly below than the 3.63pc median estimate from 35 analysts polled in Citi Research's 5 February survey. It compares with the 4.21pc headline inflation in December, marking five months of declines in the past six months. Mexican core inflation, which excluded volatile energy and food, sped slightly to 3.66pc in January from 3.65pc in December, while non-core inflation decelerated to 3.34pc from 5.95pc the previous month. Movement, in the non-core, said Banorte, was mostly explained by a positive basis of comparison, and "will reverse as soon as the second half of February to push the headline metric above 4pc," said Banorte. Core inflation accelerated slightly to 3.66pc in January from 3.65pc in December, marking the second uptick after 22 consecutive months of deceleration. Services inflation slowed to 4.69pc from 4.94pc, while consumer goods inflation ticked up to 2.74 from 2.4pc. Non-core inflation slowed sharply to 3.34pc from 6.57pc in December. This was largely due to base effects, Banorte said, adding these base effects are likely to fade this month to speed headline annual inflation back above 4pc. The base effects most clearly impacted fruit and vegetable price inflation, contracting 7.73pc in January from 6.65pc annual inflation the previous month. Moving forward, agriculture prices are highly exposed to the coming hot, dry season in Mexico, with the La Nina climate phenomenon, adding a layer of uncertainty. Meanwhile, energy inflation accelerated to 6.34pc in January from 5.73pc the previous month, driven by higher LPG prices. Electricity inflation, meanwhile, sped to 4.32pc in January from 2.65pc in December, while inflation slowed to 0.02pc in January for domestic natural gas prices from 5.67pc in December. Monetary policy The January inflation report followed the central bank's decision Thursday to reduce its target interest rate to 9.50pc from 10pc. This was the bank's sixth rate cut since March 2024, winding down from 11.25pc. The 4-1 decision marked an acceleration in the current rate cycle, opting for a half-point reduction rather than the previous five 25-basis-point cuts. In board comments with the announcement, the bank cited "significant progress in resolving the inflationary episode derived from the global shocks" in 2021 and 2022. These triggered rate hikes from 4pc in June 2021 to 11.25pc in April 2022, the target rate's historic high. Taking into account the "country's weak economic activity" and this progress in reducing inflation, the board said it would "consider adjusting [the target] by similar magnitudes" at upcoming meetings. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

German heating oil demand surges as prices fall


25/02/10
25/02/10

German heating oil demand surges as prices fall

Hamburg, 10 February (Argus) — German consumers stocked up on heating oil in the first week of February as prices fell. Traded heating oil volumes reported to Argus jumped by almost a third on the week, and prices fell by almost €2/100l on average nationwide between 3 February and 6 February. Many consumers had held off from buying in the week before to see if prices would drop, traders said. Consumers were further spurred on by a drop in temperatures after a relatively mild January. Privately owned heating oil tanks nationwide reached their lowest level since the beginning of July on 6 February at just over 52pc, Argus MDX data show. Industrial diesel tanks were lower in January than in the previous five years. Diesel demand is still low, traders said. In the first six weeks of 2025, diesel volumes reported to Argus dropped marginally and imports have remained largely unprofitable. Production cuts in southern Germany have yet to lead to any significant product shortages, with domestic supply sufficient to cover demand. Both the Bayernoil consortium's 215,000 b/d Vohburg-Neustadt refinery in Bavaria and the Miro joint venture's 310,000 b/d Karlsruhe refinery continue to produce at reduced levels. They shut down portions of their production within days of each other because of technical problems. Production at Karlsruhe is not expected to return to normal levels until the beginning of March, a departure from the original schedule which saw production increase again in mid-February. Overall production is due to remain reduced in March even with the increase in Karlsruhe, however. The 125,000 b/d Vohburg site of the Vohburg-Neustadt refinery will be taken offline entirely for maintenance works, along with several units in the 90,000 b/d Neustadt site, which has yet to resume production after a fire on 17 January. OMV plans to take its 77,000 b/d Burghausen refinery in Bavaria offline for maintenance works at the end of March. The first of two permanent production cuts scheduled for 2025 will take place in March, when Shell will cease crude distillation at the Wesseling site of its 334,000 b/d Rhineland refinery complex. The second permanent cut is due for the end of the year at BP's 258,000 b/d Gelsenkirchen refinery in west Germany. BP said on 6 February it is seeking a buyer for the refinery, and said it will go ahead with the planned reduction in crude capacity nonetheless. By Natalie Müller Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec+ output policy trumps Trump


25/02/10
25/02/10

Opec+ output policy trumps Trump

London, 10 February (Argus) — A key meeting of Opec+ ministers last week effectively backed the alliance's current output policy, which would not see any production returned to market until April. Opec+ has not, for now at least, heeded US president Donald Trump's call for the producer group to "bring down the cost of oil", something it could potentially do by raising output. As things stand, Opec+ members are due to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of voluntary crude production cuts from April, and it intends to do this over an 18-month period rather than a previously scheduled 12 months. When the group took that decision in December, the Opec secretariat said this was "to support market stability" — an implicit nod to the uncertain demand picture and projections of a looming supply surplus in 2025. There appears to be little chance of this being expedited by Trump's call, which he made within days of taking office in January. The producer group's Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) gave no indication that the alliance intends to change its output policy. But if anything, Trump's call could marginally increase the chances that the alliance finally pushes ahead with its plan to increase output in April — something it has delayed three times. This would have to fit with global supply and demand realities and the interests of the producer group. Opec+ continues to insist that it will only go ahead with the plan if market conditions allow. It is still far from clear whether there will be sufficient room in the market for added Opec+ output this year. One key uncertainty relates to Trump himself and the impact his tariff policies will have on the global economy. For now, the demand picture remains uncertain. Trump's threat to tighten sanctions on Iran and Russia could have a more direct impact on supply, but his plans remain vague. Opec+ delegates continue to monitor market conditions. A decision on whether to proceed with planned increases from April is due in early March. "We do not believe that Opec has the ability to bring back any barrels to the market through the whole of this year," data analytics firm Kpler head analyst Matt Smith said at the Argus Americas Crude Summit in Texas this week. "Anything that Saudi Arabia wants to bring back is only going to increase that surplus above what we saw in 2020, and we all know what happened to prices back then." He is not the only one who doubts there is sufficient room in the market for more Opec+ output. Energy watchdog the IEA continues to project a sizeable supply surplus this year, even in the absence of additional Opec+ production. Output reduction Opec+ members subject to targets reduced their collective crude output by 20,000 b/d to 33.51mn b/d in January, Argus estimates (see tables). This fall means Opec+ has slashed its production by 4.01mn b/d since October 2022, when it announced the first of its current round of cuts. Compliance has improved in recent months, with output 340,000 b/d below the collective target of 33.85mn b/d in January. There is still room for improvement. Iraq has slipped back into the red, exceeding its target by 20,000 b/d last month. Gabon was 80,000 b/d above its target. Kazakhstan's compliance has picked up recently, but the start of a new production phase at the Tengiz oil field has raised questions over its willingness to stick to its quota this year. But the group is keeping the pressure on. The statement following the JMMC meeting once again put a large emphasis on the importance of member conformity with production targets. It stressed the need for members that have exceeded their targets to fully deliver on their pledges to compensate for past overproduction. These must be delivered by the end of September. By Aydin Calik and Nader Itayim Opec+ crude production mn b/d Jan Dec* Jan target† ± target Opec 9 21.17 21.23 21.23 -0.06 Non-Opec 9 12.34 12.30 12.62 -0.28 Total 33.51 33.53 33.85 -0.34 *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable Opec wellhead production mn b/d Jan Dec Jan target† ± target Saudi Arabia 8.88 8.91 8.98 -0.10 Iraq 4.02 3.99 4.00 +0.02 Kuwait 2.42 2.44 2.41 +0.01 UAE 2.87 2.85 2.91 -0.04 Algeria 0.90 0.91 0.91 -0.01 Nigeria 1.51 1.55 1.50 +0.01 Congo (Brazzaville) 0.26 0.27 0.28 -0.02 Gabon 0.25 0.24 0.17 +0.08 Equatorial Guinea 0.06 0.07 0.07 -0.01 Opec 9 21.17 21.23 21.23 -0.06 Iran 3.33 3.40 na na Libya 1.35 1.31 na na Venezuela 0.90 0.90 na na Total Opec 12^ 26.75 26.84 na na †includes additional cuts where applicable ^Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt from production targets Non-Opec crude production mn b/d Jan Dec* Jan target† ± target Russia 8.96 8.97 8.98 -0.02 Oman 0.75 0.75 0.76 -0.01 Azerbaijan 0.49 0.49 0.55 -0.06 Kazakhstan 1.49 1.40 1.47 +0.02 Malaysia 0.28 0.33 0.40 -0.12 Bahrain 0.19 0.19 0.20 -0.01 Brunei 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.02 Sudan 0.02 0.02 0.06 -0.04 South Sudan 0.06 0.06 0.12 -0.06 Total non-Opec 12.34 12.30 12.62 -0.28 *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Noboa's tight lead triggers runoff in Ecuador


25/02/10
25/02/10

Noboa's tight lead triggers runoff in Ecuador

Quito, 10 February (Argus) — Ecuador will hold a second-round presidential election on 13 April after incumbent President Daniel Noboa had a closer-than-expected lead over his main challenger in Sunday's election, the electoral authority said. Noboa had 44.5pc of votes as of 11:30pm ET on Sunday, closely followed by Luisa Gonzalez, the candidate for the Citizens' Revolution party with 44.1pc, with 80pc of votes counted, the national electoral council (CNE) said. Ecuador's presidential election goes to a second round if the winning candidate does not have more than 50pc of votes or 40pc of votes with a 10-percentage point lead over the runner-up. Gonzalez' party was founded by exiled former president Rafael Correa, a close friend and supporter of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. Correa guided taking on crude-backed loans from China during his term and oversaw a rewrite of the constitution, allowing him to serve for 10 years. Gonzalez in brief comments said she was optimistic about winning the second round, while Noboa did not speak publicly. This is the first time since 2006 that the candidate with Correa's party did not win at least the initial round of a presidential race. Pachacutik candidate Leonidas Iza was in third place with 4.8pc of votes. His party is the political arm of the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities (Conaie) that led an 18-day national strike in June 2022, cutting Ecuador's crude production by 17pc that month. The remaining 13 candidates obtained about 6.6pc of the valid votes. About 13.7mn Ecuadorians were required to appear at the polls. Voting is mandatory in the South American country, but only around 85pc actually voted. Ecuadorians also voted for 151 members of the national assembly. Gonazalez' party and Noboa's National Democratic Action party are forecast to win the biggest shares, but officials results will not be known for several days. By Alberto Araujo Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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