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Eurozone manufacturing slides deeper into contraction

  • : Electricity, LPG, Metals, Natural gas, Oil products
  • 24/10/01

The eurozone manufacturing sector slid further into contraction in September, when strength in Spain and Greece was unable to outweigh underperformance from other, larger, economies including France and Germany.

The Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) eurozone manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) reading, compiled by S&P Global, was 45.0 in the month, a nine-month low. It was the first fall after three months of stability at 45.8. A PMI reading of below 50 indicates a deterioration.

HCOB chief economist Cyrus de la Rubia noted a combination of falling demand and supply-chain constraints that were last seen during the Covid-19 pandemic.

"Since June, the index tracking delivery issues has been dropping alongside new orders and for the first time since February, businesses are saying they are having to wait even longer for goods than they did in the previous month," he said. "The ongoing geopolitical tensions are obviously taking their toll here." Attacks on shipping in the Red Sea have lengthened delivery times to Europe from east of Suez, with many vessels taking the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope.

Readings fell for production, new orders, employment and procurement, and producers depleted inventories. One bright spot for producers was the first fall in input costs since May, although selling prices also dropped.

In the UK the S&P Global manufacturing PMI reading was 51.5 in September, a fifth successive month of expansion, albeit at a slower rate than the 52.5 in August. Output, new orders and suppliers' delivery times were "consistent with improved manufacturing operating conditions", while levels of employment and stocks of purchases declined. Input cost inflation was at a 20-month high, and the survey noted some caution ahead of the new government setting out its fiscal priorities on 30 October.


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24/12/13

US river lock closures may delay product deliveries

US river lock closures may delay product deliveries

Houston, 13 December (Argus) — Mid-Mississippi River and Illinois River locks are expected to undergo long-term closures starting next month, slowing down some commodity deliveries. Three locks around the St Louis, Missouri, and Granite City, Illinois, region will be closed for repairs for up to three months starting 1 January, according to the US Army Corps of Engineers. The Mel Price Main Lock, where the Illinois River flows into the Mississippi River, and Lock 27's main lock, where the Missouri flows into the Mississippi, will also be closed from 1 January through 1 April. The Mel Price Main Lock will commence the final phase of replacement for its upstream lift-gate. Replacement of embedded metals will occur during the closure for Lock 27's main lock. Lock 25 will have a shorter closure date for a sill beam and guide-wall concrete installment from 1 January through 2 March. This is the first lock on the upper Mississippi River, after the Illinois River. These closures are expected to be more of a nuisance than a deterrent for commodity traffic, according to barge carriers. Ice in the river is likely to have melted by mid-March, which may cause barge carriers to wait in the St Louis harbor for the locks to open. Two other lengthy closures are anticipated on the Illinois River beginning on 28 January. The Lockport Lock — the second to last lock on the Illinois River — will be fully closed from 28 January through 25 March for full repairs to the sill and seal of the lock. The prior lock, Brandon Road Lock, will be closed during weekdays over the same time period, but traffic can pass through over the weekend. The lock closures and repairs are expected to delay some barge shipments, specifically to the Great Lakes and Burns Harbor. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Argentina’s renewables to get boost in 2025


24/12/13
24/12/13

Argentina’s renewables to get boost in 2025

New York, 13 December (Argus) — Argentina's renewables sector is looking at a rosier outlook in 2025 supported by new legislation and improved economic conditions. The country's renewable energy legislation, which was enacted in 2015 and expires at the end of 2025, stipulates a target of 20pc participation of renewables — excluding hydropower plants greater than 50MW — by the end of 2025. The country has not met annual targets, but there is growing confidence that it could come close to the goal by the end of next year. Renewable sources covered 15pc of the demand in October, according to the latest report from the energy secretariat, up from 13.5pc in July. The country added 373MW in new renewable generating capacity in the first three quarters of this year. The trade organization of wind energy CEA, estimates that 700MW in new solar and wind capacity will be added in 2025. A replacement renewable law focused primarily on investment, which the ruling Libertad Avanza party plans to submit in early 2025, and economic deregulation underway has the sector confident that financing for projects will soon be readily available, ushering in a boost in private investment for renewables. Ignacio Criado, a partner at the Tanoira Cassagne law firm who focuses on renewable energy, said he expects the country to be close to the 20pc renewable target by the end of 2025 and that there will be sustained growth in coming years. "More players are interested in the construction of renewable energy plants, with solar power in the north and wind in the south," said Criado. He said that the country's increasing economic stability and a government program providing incentives for large-scale investments, known as the RIGI, are fostering interest among investors. Argentina's economy, while still in tough shape, has improved in the year since president Javier Milei took office. While annualized inflation is still in triple digits, the monthly rate fell from 25.5pc in December 2023 to 2.4pc in November, according to the statistics agency. It was 112pc in the 12 months through November. The economy shrank by 3.4pc in the first half of the year and will contract by around 3pc the full year, but is expected to grow by 5pc in 2025, according to the IMF. During a 10 December address marking his first year in office, Milei said tax reform and elimination of exchange rate and customs controls would be forthcoming, adding to investment flows. RIGI boost The administration has already received requests under the RIGI mechanism for $11.8bn in investment, primarily in energy projects, Milei said. Among the projects in line for the RIGI is the state-owned YPF Luz's 305MW El Quemado solar plant, the first stage of which should be ready by 2026. In early December, the state's energy wholesaler, Cammesa, awarded a contract for eight new renewable projects with a combined capacity of 561MW. It received 31 proposals for a total of 1,639MW. Of the projects, 345MW were awarded to Genneia, the country's largest renewable company with more than 1GW in installed capacity, and 88MW to Australia's Fortescue for its Cerro Policia wind farm in the southern Rio Negro province. The energy will be used for its planned low-carbon hydrogen project. These projects should start coming on line from the end of 2025 in throughout 2026. As of October, Argentina had 6.56GW in installed renewable capacity, including 4.12GW in wind, up by 11.2pc from a year ago, 1.63GW in solar, up by 19.6pc, and 82MW in biogas, up by 5.4pc. It also had 524MW in small hydroelectric plants and 201MW in biomass, with no new capacity from a year earlier. Large-scale hydroelectric plants totalled 9.63GW, while thermal electric plants totalled 25.28GW and nuclear plants 1.75GW. By Lucien Chauvin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Norway's 500MW cables at risk if price link proved


24/12/13
24/12/13

Norway's 500MW cables at risk if price link proved

London, 13 December (Argus) — Norway will not replace the two oldest transmission cables between it and Denmark, with a combined capacity of 500MW, if the national transmission system operator (TSO) confirms they "harm the national power system", energy minister Terje Aasland told Argus . If the Skagerak 1 and 2 cables are found to contribute to "high prices", as seen this week, and additionally "reinforced negative price contagion", the minister explained, the government will not renew the cables. The minister's comments come as the ruling Labour party's programme committee — of which the minister is not a member — agreed to block extending or replacing the ageing cables as they approach the end of their operational lifetime. There has yet been no formal application to renew the Norwegian-Danish Skagerak 1 and 2 links, which the minister said means "there is nothing to say yes or no to" at the moment. Norwegian TSO Statnett is currently investigating the possible renewal and, alternatively, the effects of not renewing the link, the minister confirmed. Skagerak 1 and 2, commissioned in 1976 and 1977, respectively, are part of a trio of cables, including the 500MW Skagerak 3 interconnector connected in 1993, linking Norway's NO2 with Denmark's DK1 bidding area. By Daniel Craig Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Syria faces fuel supply conundrum


24/12/13
24/12/13

Syria faces fuel supply conundrum

London, 13 December (Argus) — The overthrow of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad has left the country's trading relationship with Iran on an uncertain footing, putting pressure on the new transitional government to upgrade refining infrastructure and find alternative sources of fuel supply. As the Assad regime's closest ally, Iran has been Syria's main source of both crude and oil product imports since western sanctions were imposed on Damascas in the early stages of its civil war in 2011. The product shipments are difficult to track as they are carried out by Iran's 'dark fleet', but consultancy FGE estimates Iran has been sending around 10,000-20,000 b/d to Syria in recent years. Those trade flows are no longer guaranteed, given that Hayat Tahir al-Sham (HTS), the main militant group behind the armed revolt to topple Assad, has close ties to Iran's regional rival Turkey. Syria is now likely to import oil products from other local sources, a trading analyst told Argus . Turkey itself is an option, although one Turkish trader ruled out any immediate business plans to supply Syria. Watad, HTS' affiliated oil trading arm, has previously imported oil and gas from Turkey and has marketed gasoline thought to have come from Ukraine via Turkey, according to a regional analyst. Egypt is another possible supplier. It has enough capacity to export refined products to Syria for the time being, according to a refining source in the country. Vortexa data show gasoil was last loaded from Egypt's Sidi Kerir terminal in July. Syria's transitional government may also attempt to increase domestic supply, although that will require rehabilitating the country's 140,000 b/d Banias and 110,000 b/d Homs refineries. Run rates have halved since 2011, the IEA estimates. Only the Banias refinery is operating at a reasonable level, according to sources. Iran earlier this year proposed a €140mn revamp of the Homs refinery, which has been operating below capacity for years because of infrastructure damage incurred during the civil war . Syrian demand for oil products has seen a structural decline since the civil war, with consumption dropping by around 60pc between 2011 and 2022, according to the IEA. But with Assad's overthrow signalling a potential return of refugees from neighbouring Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan, demand may pick up in the coming months, intensifying pressure on the transitional administration to seek new trade flows and repair the country's refining infrastructure. By George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU could tighten steel safeguard in impending review


24/12/13
24/12/13

EU could tighten steel safeguard in impending review

London, 13 December (Argus) — The European Commission could significantly tighten its existing steel safeguard in light of weak market conditions as part of its impending review. The commission is likely to expedite its annual review of the measure in light of increasing global overcapacity, and could announce it next week, sources said. "You can imagine the current situation of the steel industry and global overcapacity requires action from the legislator to support EU industry," one source said. Given weak steel demand within Europe, mill sources suggest the commission's review should stop the 1pc liberalisation of the quota, which provides importers with an increased share of a declining market. Buy- and sell-side sources anticipate a further tightening of import volumes over and above the 15pc cap imposed on the "other countries" quota. There is also talk of further dumping investigations, in addition to the case against hot-rolled coil (HRC) from Egypt, Japan, India and Vietnam. Vietnamese hot-dip galvanised is in scope, as is South Korean and Indonesian plate, and HRC and downstream products from other countries could possibly become subject to investigations. Recent market chatter suggests there could be an investigation of cold-rolled coil from Taiwan, and perhaps other Asian sellers. Mills have for months been pressing for tighter measures, suggesting the safeguard is not fit for purpose. In an interview with Argus in September, Eurofer director general Axel Eggert told Argus the association had asked the commission for a "structural solution" to stop the pernicious impact of global overcapacity, such as a global "tariff-like system". Countries with the largest exposure to overcapacity could have the greatest tariffs in this scenario. In a recent article in the Financial Times , Lakshmi Mittal, executive chairman of ArcelorMittal, said the EU must "urgently address imports" and "intervention is required so that European steel is better protected", adding that emergency trade measures would be a "strong first signal". By Colin Richardson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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