Cop: US election not affecting Canadian policy

: Crude oil, Emissions, Natural gas, Oil products
24/11/12

Canada's government does not intend to alter its plans for cutting the country's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in response to the return of former president Donald Trump to the White House.

The expected shift in US policy following Trump's recent election victory, including the likely repeal of climate-related regulations and exit from the Paris Agreement, will have no effect on Canada's plans, environment minister Steven Guilbeault said during a call with reporters on Tuesday from the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan.

"It's not the first US administration where we have different views on climate change", he said. "That didn't stop us in the past."

The Canadian government, led by prime minister Justin Trudeau, has implemented or proposed a number of policies and programs intended to help the country meet its Paris pledge to reduce its emissions by 40-45pc, compared to 2005 levels, by 2030. Canada plans to submit a more-aggressive commitment, known as a nationally determined contribution, to the UN early next year, Guilbeault said.

The government last week proposed enacting a cap-and-trade program to reduce GHG emissions from the oil and gas sector, which has drawn sharp criticism from the industry.

Guilbeault's comments came in response to a question about remarks made by former finance minister Bill Morneau, who served in Trudeau's government from 2015-2020. During a recent interview with a Canadian news program, Morneau suggested scrapping the oil and gas cap in light of Trump's election.

"I respectfully disagree with minister Morneau", Guilbeault said. "The time to fight climate change is now. It's not tomorrow. It's not the day after tomorrow."

Speaking to reporters earlier in the day in Baku, Guilbeault declined to comment "on what the new administration will or won't do."

While Trump's election may not affect policy north of the border, Canada's Liberal Party could get voted out of power next year. The Conservative Party, which is well ahead in recent election polls, is campaigning on a platform that calls for ending the federal carbon tax and potentially other climate policies. But policies that have industry backing could survive. Canada must hold its next federal election no later than October 2025.

By Michael Ball

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24/12/12

NordBit to exit Dunkirk bitumen terminal at year-end

London, 12 December (Argus) — Hamburg-based bitumen supply and trading firm NordBit will end its operations at the Dunkirk bitumen terminal in northeast France at the end of this year, a source familiar with the firm's operations said. NordBit — a bitumen joint venture between German firms Mabanol and H&R — has been operating the 11,000-12,000t capacity terminal since 2019 . The bitumen facility is part of a wider oil products and chemicals complex at Dunkirk. According to vessel tracking data, the bitumen terminal at Dunkirk has received 25,900t this year, although no cargoes have been discharged since August. Market participants said the terminal is in need of upgrading and will probably need the work done ahead of renting. The imminent halt to NordBit's operations at Dunkirk comes as French building conglomerate Vinci's Eurovia subsidiary nears completion of its own new and separate 16,000t capacity bitumen terminal in Dunkirk which is scheduled to start operating from March or April next year. By Fenella Rhodes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec+ decision reduces potential supply surplus: IEA

24/12/12

Opec+ decision reduces potential supply surplus: IEA

London, 12 December (Argus) — The recent decision by Opec+ members to delay a planned output increase has "materially reduced" a potential supply surplus next year, the IEA said today. Opec+ producers earlier this month pushed back a plan to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of voluntary crude production cuts by three months to April 2025 and to return the full amount over 18 months rather than a year. Still, the oil market in 2025 is still likely to be significantly oversupplied, the IEA said in its Oil Market Report (OMR), given persistent overproduction by some Opec+ members, strong supply growth from outside the alliance and modest global oil demand growth. The Paris-based agency's base case forecasts show supply exceeding demand by 950,000 b/d next year, even if all Opec+ cuts remain in place. The supply surplus would increase to 1.4mn b/d if alliance members start increasing output from April as planned, the IEA said. This is far from guaranteed. Opec+ has already delayed its plan to increase output three times and continues to say a decision to unwind will depend on market conditions. While the IEA expects oil demand growth to remain subdued next year, its latest forecasts show a slightly higher outlook than in its previous report . The agency revised up its oil demand growth forecast for 2025 by 90,000 b/d to 1.1mn b/d, largely because of China's recently announced economic stimulus measures. This would see global consumption rise to 103.9mn b/d. But the IEA downgraded its oil demand growth forecast for this year by 80,000 b/d, to 840,000 b/d, mostly because of "weaker-than-expected non-OECD deliveries in countries such as China, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia." It said non-OECD oil demand growth in the third quarter, at 320,000 b/d, was the lowest since the height of the Covid-19 pandemic. The IEA said lacklustre demand growth this year and next reflects "a generally sub-par macroeconomic environment and changing patterns of oil use." Increases will be driven by petrochemical feedstocks, and demand for transport fuels "will continue to be constrained by behavioural and technological progress." On supply, the IEA downgraded its growth estimates for 2025 by 110,000 b/d to 1.9mn b/d. Most of this will come from non-Opec+ countries such as the US, Canada, Guyana, Brazil and Argentina. The agency nudged lower its supply forecasts for this year, by 10,000 b/d to 630,000 b/d. The IEA said global observed oil stocks declined by 39.3mn bl in October, led by an "exceptionally sharp" fall in oil product inventories due to low refinery activity coupled with higher demand. It said preliminary data show a rebound in global inventories in November. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EPA defends 'good neighbor' efficacy

24/12/11

EPA defends 'good neighbor' efficacy

Houston, 11 December (Argus) — The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) responded to concerns raised by the US Supreme Court in June by defending the efficacy of the "good neighbor" plan in reducing NOx emissions regardless of the number of participating states. The high court's concerns were over the issue of severability — that is, how effective the good neighbor plan would be in lowering ozone season NOx emissions if only some of the original 23 states participated. In other words, it is the question of whether the emissions limits placed on states as part of the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) cap-and-trade program under the plan would have changed based on the number of participating states. In a notice published in the Federal Register on Tuesday, EPA rejected the idea that the effectiveness of the good neighbor plan — and as a result, the NOx emissions limits imposed on each state — would wane if the number of participating states changed. Instead, the agency said that its plan is "by design severable by state" because the NOx emissions limits are imposed on individual sources rather than the states themselves. Each participating state's emissions obligations depend on the number of obligated power plants, their emissions and the types of emissions reduction measures they already have in place. As a result, pausing the imposition of tighter NOx limits under the good neighbor plan in certain states does not affect the NOx limits imposed in other participating states, EPA said. In a similar vein, EPA addressed concerns that the larger version of the CSAPR Group 3 seasonal NOx allowance trading program established under the good neighbor plan would become more illiquid if it covered fewer states than planned, which could lead to a smaller supply of allowances and higher prices. Calling those concerns "unjustified", the agency said that states can withdraw their sources from a trading program by submitting their own ozone reduction plans. EPA also cited previous instances from past cross-state ozone programs where the number of participating states has changed, noting that there has been no evidence of allowance shortages. EPA also responded to concerns that it used an inconsistent methodology to determine emissions obligations for each source — including the emissions reduction strategies that could be used and their associated costs. The agency said it used a methodology that was "nearly identical to prior good neighbor rules" and considered NOx reduction technologies that have been in place "for decades throughout the US." The severability issue was raised by the Supreme Court in June, when it paused implementation of the good neighbor plan nationwide. The court majority said that EPA did not provide a sufficient explanation in response to public comments from states that highlighted those concerns — especially because, until the court issued its stay, only 10 states were participating in the good neighbor plan because of lower court stays. But in September, the US Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit allowed EPA to respond to the issue of severability, while it paused related litigation. EPA finalized the "good neighbor" plan last year to help downwind states meet the 2015 federal ozone standards. It imposed more rigorous CSAPR ozone season NOx emissions limits on more than 20 states and called for new NOx limits for industrial sources. Illiquidity has been persistent in the CSAPR market, depressing activity and keeping prices steady for almost a year because of uncertainty surrounding the numerous legal challenges against the plan. The ozone season runs from May-September each year. With plan halted for the time being, EPA has returned to less-stringent seasonal NOx budgets and reshuffled the remaining participating states into the Group 2 and new "expanded" Group 2 markets, leaving the Group 3 market empty. By Ida Balakrishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US road fuel stocks highest since September

24/12/11

US road fuel stocks highest since September

Houston, 11 December (Argus) — US road fuel stocks last week rose to the highest since September, even as demand climbed, according to US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. US gasoline stocks in the week ended 6 December rose to 219.7mn bl, up by 2.4pc from a week earlier and the highest inventory level since the week ended 27 September. Compared with a year earlier, gasoline stocks were down by 1.9pc.. US gasoline product supplied, a proxy for demand, rose for a third consecutive week to 8.81mn b/d, notching a 0.8pc increase on the week, but falling by 0.6pc on the year. Average US retail gasoline prices slipped by 2.6¢/USG to $3.008/USG in the week ended 9 December, the eighth-consecutive weekly drop , according to an earlier EIA report. Weekly EIA demand data is prone to sharp swings, while EIA monthly data, released with a lag, provides a more accurate picture of US demand. The four-week average of combined product supplied and exports was 9.6mn b/d, a 1.8pc decrease from the previous four-week average but up by 0.6pc from the average a year earlier. US gasoline exports last week averaged 1.04mn b/d, growing by 4.5pc from a week earlier but dipping by 8.1pc on the year. Imports fell by 9.2pc on the week to 464,000 b/d and lagged behind year earlier levels by 35pc. Diesel stocks up US ultra-low sulphur diesel (ULSD) stocks increased to 112.9mn bl, up by 3.2mn bl on the week and the highest inventory level since 20 September. ULSD stocks were up by 8.5mn bl from the same week in 2023. Distillate fuel oil product supplied, which includes ULSD and high sulphur fuel oil, rose on the week by 1.5pc to 3.45mn b/d, rebounding from the prior week's decline. Still, this was down by 8.5pc from a year earlier. The implied demand for distillate fuel oil, calculated using the four-week average of combined product supply and exports, stood at 5mn b/d last week. This was down by 1.8pc from the previous week but up by 2.9pc from a year earlier. Exports of US distillate fuel oil dropped on the week by 5.1pc to 1.47mn b/d but rose by 22pc from the same week last year. ULSD imports rose by 33pc to 154,000 b/d, the highest imports since 1 November, but decreased by 25pc from a year earlier. US jet fuel stockpiles increased to 41.9mn bl, up by 0.6pc from the previous week and up by 14pc from the same week in 2023. Increased jet fuel stocks come as US airline passenger traffic declined last week from a three-month high , falling by 0.2pc to 17.3mn passengers, according to Transportation Security Administration data. Refinery runs fall US gross refinery crude inputs dropped last week by 0.9pc to 16.9mn b/d, easing from a three-month high, but inputs were up by 2.8pc from the same week in 2023. Refinery utilization rates declined on the week by 0.9 percentage points to 92.4pc. Still, this refinery rates were up by 2.2 points compared to a year earlier. By Zach Appel and Hunter Fite EIA weekly refined products data Stocks mn bl 6-Dec 29-Nov ±% Year ago ±% Gasoline 219.7 214.6 2.4% 224.0 -1.9% Jet 41.9 41.7 0.6% 36.8 13.7% Distillate fuel 121.3 118.1 2.7% 113.5 6.9% -- ultra low-sulphur (<= 15ppm sulphur) 112.9 109.7 2.9% 104.4 8.1% Imports '000 b/d Total products 1,546 1,479 4.5% 1,976 -21.8% Gasoline 464 511 -9.2% 715 -35.1% Jet 160 75 113.3% 84 90.5% Distillate fuel 154 116 32.8% 205 -24.9% Exports '000 b/d Total products 6,906 7,542 -8.4% 6,553 5.4% Gasoline 1,039 994 4.5% 1,131 -8.1% Jet 219 381 -42.5% 183 19.7% Distillate fuel 1,471 1,550 -5.1% 1,208 21.8% Refinery usage Refinery inputs '000 b/d 16,933 17,094 -0.9% 16,476 2.8% Refinery utilisation % 92.4 93.3 -1.0% 90.2 2.4% Products supplied '000 b/d Total products 20,158 19,968 1.0% 21,079 -4.4% Gasoline 8,810 8,738 0.8% 8,859 -0.6% Jet 1,841 1,610 14.3% 1,871 -1.6% Distillate fuel 3,450 3,398 1.5% 3,770 -8.5% — US Energy Information Administration Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop 29 grids, storage pledge signatories released

24/12/11

Cop 29 grids, storage pledge signatories released

London, 11 December (Argus) — The final list of signatories for pledges on expanding energy storage and grid capacity taken at the UN Cop 29 climate summit, was released today, almost four weeks after the commitment was first finalised, with 58 countries out of almost 200 Cop parties taking part. Signatories commit to a collective goal of increasing electricity storage capacity to 1500GW by 2030, a sixfold increase from 2022. Another pledge is to add or refurbish 25mn km of grid infrastructure by 2030, and recognise the need for an additional 65mn km by 2040. Lack of firm, clean power generators to back up intermittent renewables is a major barrier to increasing renewable penetration, while distributed resources require large investments in power grids to transport electricity to consumers. The list of 58 signatory countries includes the so-called troika of Cop host countries the UAE, Azerbaijan and Brazil. The US and all other G7 member states are present, with the exception of France. Also absent among major economies are China and Russia, while Saudi Arabia spoke in support of the pledges during Cop but does not appear on the list of signatories. In comparison, almost 120 countries had signed a pledge to triple global renewable capacity double global energy efficiency by 2030 during the Cop 28 summit in Dubai last year. The grids and storage pledges were one of the centrepiece announcements made by the Azeri host, following on from the calls made in Dubai on renewable capacity and energy efficiency, but also on transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems. But divergences on mitigation — actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions — during the summit this year, meant that the completed pledge, as well as any other specific mentions of fuels and energy transition technologies, were not included in final outcome texts. By Rhys Talbot Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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