Bank of America lowers 2025 Cu, Al forecasts

: Metals
24/11/27

Bank of America analysts have cut their forecasts for copper and aluminium prices next year amid rising geopolitical tensions over potential trade disputes and various supply constraints.

Bank of America now predicts that copper prices will average $9,438/t in 2025, down by 12pc from previous forecasts, while aluminium prices will average $2,813/t, down by 6pc from earlier projections.

Higher forecast prices had been based on tight supply in markets outside China, with aluminium markets feeling the impact of a sharp reduction in alumina raw material supply this year owing to bauxite supply constraints in China, Australia and Guinea. Demand levels, although low through 2024, are likely to rise next year owing to the ramp-up of the energy transition.

But the price forecasts have fallen back amid growing trade disputes between the US and a slew of its major trade partners following the victory for Donald Trump at the recent presidential election. Trump takes office in January next year, and has made the imposition of sweeping trade tariffs a cornerstone of his second administration.

Trump said late on Monday via social media that he will impose a 10pc tariff on Chinese goods, as well as a 25pc duty on all products from Mexico and Canada as soon as he takes office on 20 January, accusing them of facilitating drug trafficking and illegal migration into the US. These remarks came just one day after Trump's nomination of Scott Bessent as Treasury secretary somewhat eased investor concerns over trade tariff plans.

These tariffs will raise prices for all manner of goods and services in the US and are likely to lead to a significant drop in demand for base metals used in construction and automotive industries.

By Jethro Wookey

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25/12/15

EU’s post-safeguard steel measure set for 1 July start

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EU agrees recycled content for cars

25/12/12

EU agrees recycled content for cars

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Australia offers support to Rio Tinto’s Tomago Al plant

25/12/12

Australia offers support to Rio Tinto’s Tomago Al plant

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EU may crank up coal and steel research funds in 2027

25/12/11

EU may crank up coal and steel research funds in 2027

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ArcelorMittal to raise ferro-alloys surcharge on coil

25/12/11

ArcelorMittal to raise ferro-alloys surcharge on coil

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