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German gas demand edges up in 2024

  • : Electricity, Natural gas
  • 25/01/08

German gas demand remained largely unchanged on the year in 2024, as a recovery in industrial and power-sector burn was almost completely offset by lower residential and commercial consumption amid mild weather.

Germany used about 2.285 TWh/d of gas in 2024, up by 6.6 GWh/d from 2.278 TWh/d in 2023, according to data from market area manager THE (see yearly graph). But total gas use remained below the 2018-21 average of 2.7 TWh/d, with the drop in wholesale prices from 2022-23 not supporting a rebound in aggregate consumption.

Residential and commercial demand — largely for heating purposes — fell by 5pc year on year in 2024 to 894 GWh/d. Household gas prices remain high and are about double those in 2016-21, according to data from grid regulator Bnetza, which may have weighed on gas use by households and small businesses.

Mild weather — especially in the first quarter of the year — also pushed down gas demand from households and small businesses. Temperatures were higher than in 2023 in all but three months in the first three quarters of the year, according to data released by German energy and water association BDEW in late December. The number of heating degree days (HDDs) in Germany was about 4pc below the previous year in 2024, and about 14pc below the 10-year average, according to data from Berlin-based think-tank Agora Energiewende. That said, colder weather in September-December supported a year-on-year increase in heating demand during these months (see monthly year-on-year graph).

According to preliminary calculations published by Agora Energiewende on Tuesday, mild weather and high consumer prices continue to drive the majority of low heating demand, rather than energy-saving efforts. Without the effect of mild weather, emissions from the built environment — largely caused by heating — would have been higher in 2024 than a year earlier, according to Agora. A return of temperature-adjusted heating patterns to pre-crisis levels as well as slow structural changes, such as plummeting heat pump sales, led Agora to urge for more measures in heat transition policy to drive down gas demand from the built environment.

Industrial gas demand up by 7pc despite economic woes

German gas demand for use in industrial processes rose on the year, according to Argus estimates, supported by a slight recovery in energy-intensive industry.

German industry used about 737 GWh/d for industrial processes in 2024, up from 688 GWh/d in 2023 but well below the 2018-21 average of 877 GWh/d, according to Argus analysis.

While German GDP stagnated in 2024 and industrial production continued its downward trend, output from energy-intensive industries such as the chemicals sector recovered slightly, especially in the first half of the year.

In addition, gas prices falling below LPG in January and remaining cheaper than LPG for most of the year until the fourth quarter may have encouraged some industrial firms to return to gas where they had previously switched to LPG to reduce energy costs.

That said, gas prices rising back above propane and butane parity (see LPG fuel-switching graph) and lower output from the chemicals industry in recent months may have slowed the German industrial gas demand recovery. And several plant closures in recent years may similarly constrain any future rebound.

Power-sector gas burn up

Gas-fired generation increased in 2024 from a year earlier on more favourable generation economics than lignite and hard coal, despite a record renewables share reducing the overall call on thermal generation.

Gas-fired generation reached 5.96GW last year, up from 5.88GW in 2023, leading to about 16 GWh/d in additional gas demand for power generation, according to Argus estimates. Gas-fired generation increased year on year despite renewables making up a record 62pc of German power generation. Fossil fuel generation was used to meet 17.1GW of power demand in 2024, down from 19.3GW in 2023. While overall power demand remained roughly unchanged from a year earlier, Germany lifted power imports, pushing down domestic generation (see power mix graph).

But gas increased its share of the thermal mix, partly on lignite and coal plant closures as Germany's coal phase-out progresses. Gas prices at the bottom of the coal-to-gas fuel-switching range for most of the year until the fourth quarter, even outperforming lignite plants in January-July, supported the call on gas for dispatchable generation.

Recent gas price rises have put coal and lignite firmly ahead of gas in the power-generation merit order for all forward periods until 2026, suggesting scope for the share of gas in thermal output to be lower this year.

German power generation mix by year GW

TTF versus LPG prices, energy equivalence basis $/mn Btu

Monthly year-on-year change in gas demand by sector GWh/d

German gas demand by year TWh/d

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25/02/13

Trump announces plan for 'reciprocal' tariffs: Update

Trump announces plan for 'reciprocal' tariffs: Update

Updates with more details, additional quotes from Trump. Washington, 13 February (Argus) — President Donald Trump said today he would impose "reciprocal tariffs" on imports from an undisclosed number of countries sometime in the future, a move that could affect imports of ethanol and likely many other energy commodities. The idea behind the next major wave of tariffs Trump plans to unveil is to raise the US import tariffs to the same level foreign countries charge on exports from the US. A fact sheet circulated by the White House singled out Brazil's tariffs on US-sourced ethanol and EU's higher tariffs on imported cars as examples of the allegedly discriminatory treatment that Trump would attempt to address. "They charge us a tax or tariff, and we charge them the exact same tax, very simple," Trump told reporters at the White House. As with his first tariffs against Canada and Mexico — paused until 4 March — and against China, which went into effect on 4 February, there is a great deal of regulatory uncertainty on how or when the tariffs will be implemented. "Nobody knows what that number is, unless you go by the individual country, and you can see what it is," Trump said. So far, the pending actions do not yet appear to be as severe or hastily implemented as Trump's recent comments led many to believe. His directive does not set a specific deadline for when the reciprocal tariffs will be imposed. It merely directs US government agencies to review if US exporters face higher taxes and other trade barriers compared with their foreign competitors, and to propose countermeasures. The review preceding the potential imposition of 'reciprocal tariffs' will be complete by 1 April, Trump's commerce secretary nominee, Howard Lutnick, said. "We'll be ready to go on 1 April and and we'll hand it to the president, and he'll make a decision," Lutnick said. The intent of the directive is to force foreign countries to lower their tariffs against the US. But that outcome is not guaranteed. Trump's 10pc tariff on imports from China, and Beijing's more limited counter-tariffs, went into effect this month despite his claim that he would quickly negotiate with Beijing to avert a trade war. In what is becoming a norm with the tariff announcements, Trump is alternatively downplaying inflationary effects of such tariffs, or casting any negative effects as justified. The tariffs are going to result in "tremendous amounts of jobs, and ultimately prices will stay the same, or go down, but we're going to have a very dynamic country," Trump said. Prompted by the reporters to say if voters would hold him responsible for any resulting spike in inflation, Trump said, "prices could go up somewhat short-term, but prices will also go down." The White House, at least, no longer rejects descriptions of tariffs as a tax, even though it continues to insist that only foreign exporters — not US consumers — will be paying it. Trump has imposed a 25pc tariff on imported steel and aluminum that will become effective on 12 March. The 1 April date referenced in today's announcement is also a deadline set in an earlier Trump executive order for all US government agencies to investigate the causes of "our country's large and persistent annual trade deficits in goods". That review is the first step in planned imposition of tariffs on national security and other grounds against imports from the EU, UK, India, Vietnam and other major economies. The large deficit the US runs in trade in goods with India will be a subject of Trump's meeting later today with Indian prime minister Narendra Modi. The US expects India to step up purchases of crude and other energy commodities to better balance bilateral trade. Trump likewise told Japan's prime minister Shigeru Ishiba last week that Tokyo should ensure that Japanese energy companies source more US oil, LNG and ethanol to "get rid of" the US' trade deficit with Japan. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump announces plan for 'reciprocal' tariffs


25/02/13
25/02/13

Trump announces plan for 'reciprocal' tariffs

Washington, 13 February (Argus) — President Donald Trump said today he would impose "reciprocal tariffs" on imports from an undisclosed number of countries sometime in the future, a move that could affect imports of ethanol and likely many other energy commodities. The idea behind the next major wave of tariffs Trump plans to unveil is to raise the US import tariffs to the same level foreign countries charge on exports from the US. Trump's trade advisers previously cited Brazil's tariff on US-sourced ethanol, which is higher than the US customs duty on ethanol, as an example of the disparity they would attempt to address. "They charge us a tax or tariff, and we charge them the exact same tax, very simple," Trump told reporters at the White House. As with his first tariffs against Canada and Mexico — paused until 4 March — and against China, which went into effect on 4 February, there is a great deal of regulatory uncertainty on how the tariffs will be implemented. "Nobody knows what that number is, unless you go by the individual country, and you can see what it is," Trump said. Trump's directive does not set a specific deadline for when the reciprocal tariffs will be imposed. The intent of the order is to force foreign countries to lower their tariffs against the US. But that outcome is not guaranteed. Trump's 10pc tariff on imports from China, and Beijing's more limited counter-tariffs, went into effect this month despite his claim that he would quickly negotiate with Beijing to avert a trade war. In what is becoming a norm with the tariff announcements, the Trump administration is alternatively downplaying inflationary effects of such tariffs, or casting any negative effects as justified. "Last year, US-based companies paid foreign governments $370bn in taxes," White House National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett said today. "Meanwhile, foreign companies paid the US $57bn in taxes. Are we supposed to keep doing that because of some economic model that doesn't have the whole real world in it?" The White House, at least, no longer rejects descriptions of tariffs as a tax, even though it continues to insist that only foreign exporters — not US consumers — will be paying it. Trump has imposed a 25pc tariff on imported steel and aluminum that will become effective on 12 March. He set a deadline of 1 April for all US government agencies to investigate the causes of "our country's large and persistent annual trade deficits in goods" — a review that likely will result in additional tariffs later this year against imports from the EU, UK, India, Vietnam and other major economies. The large deficit the US runs in trade in goods with India will be a subject of Trump's meeting later today with Indian prime minister Narendra Modi. The US expects India to step up purchases of crude and other energy commodities to better balance bilateral trade. Trump likewise told Japan's prime minister Shigeru Ishiba last week that Tokyo should ensure that Japanese energy companies source more US oil, LNG and ethanol to "get rid of" the US' trade deficit with Japan. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US wholesale inflation holds near 2-year high in Jan


25/02/13
25/02/13

US wholesale inflation holds near 2-year high in Jan

Houston, 13 February (Argus) — Prices paid to US producers in January held at nearly a two-year high, another sign of mounting inflation pressures that may keep the Federal Reserve from lowering rates for longer. Prices paid to producers (PPI) rose by 3.5pc in January from a year earlier, matching the prior month's gain, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said today. Analysts surveyed by Trading Economics had forecast a gain of 3.2pc. The PPI number follows a higher-than-expected consumer price reading Wednesday which together reinforce the message that the Federal Reserve may hold off longer on rate cuts, especially in the face of potentially inflationary trade conflicts and migrant roundups under the new US administration. PPI excluding food, energy and trade services rose by 3.4pc in January following a 3.5pc gain in December. PPI for services rose by 4.1pc in January following a 4pc gain in December. Wholesale prices for energy were flat following a 2pc annual decline the prior month. PPI for goods rose by 2.3pc in January following a 1.8pc gain in December On a monthly basis, headline PPI rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.4pc, compared with a 0.5pc gain in December and a 0.2pc increase in November. Services PPI rose by 0.3pc in December, following a monthly gain of 0.5pc in December and a 0.1pc gain in November. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico factory output dips 1.4pc in December


25/02/12
25/02/12

Mexico factory output dips 1.4pc in December

Mexico City, 12 February (Argus) — Mexico's industrial production fell 1.4pc in December from the previous month with broad weakness across multiple sectors on tariff uncertainty and weak domestic demand. The result marks the largest monthly decline of 2024 and was weaker than the 1pc decline forecast by Mexican bank Banorte. It followed a nearly flat reading in November. Trade uncertainty and low domestic demand weighed on industrial production in December, said Banorte, with industry "sluggishness" likely through mid-2025. Manufacturing, which represents 63pc of Inegi's seasonally adjusted industrial activity indicator (IMAI), decreased by 1.2pc after rising 0.7pc in November. Transportation equipment manufacturing output, which comprises 24pc of the manufacturing component, has fluctuated in recent months, falling 6.4pc in December after a 3.6pc uptick in November and a 4.4pc decline in October. Despite this, Mexico's auto sector achieved record annual light vehicle production and exports in 2024. However, Mexican auto industry associations confirm investment in the sector has begun to slow on uncertainty tied to concerns over potential US tariffs and slow economic growth in 2025. Taking the base case that tariffs do not materialize, Banorte expects manufacturing to rebound in the second half of the year as uncertainty lifts and interest rates fall with rate cuts at the central bank. Mining, which makes up 12pc of the IMAI, was lower by 1pc in December, following a 0.5pc increase in November. The decline was again driven by the oil and gas production, falling by 2.5pc in December to mark a sixth consecutive monthly decline for hydrocarbons output. Construction, representing 19pc of the IMAI, contracted by 2.1pc in December with setbacks in all categories. This matched the November result, with Inegi recording declines in construction in five of the last seven months. From a year prior, industrial production fell by 2.4pc in December , while manufacturing fell by 0.3pc and construction declined by 7.1pc in December. Mining was down by 6.2pc. B y James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Italy mulling changes to EU gas stock targets: Boschi


25/02/12
25/02/12

Italy mulling changes to EU gas stock targets: Boschi

London, 12 February (Argus) — Italy is exploring the idea of lower EU gas storage targets, but no decisions have yet been made, the energy chief at Italy's environment and energy security ministry told Argus . A decision on whether to scrap, change or renew the EU rules implemented in 2022 that required a 90pc EU stockfill on 1 November last year and require the same this coming November could be taken in the coming weeks, energy department head Federico Boschi said. "The [existing] stockfill obligations end on 31 December 2025 and as such, there is space for either a halt, a change or an extension," Boschi said, without specifying whether Italy might advocate for a lower target on 1 November 2025 or beyond, or both. Asked whether Italy was seeking a capacity target for gas storage injections, Boschi said the government had also not yet taken a position. "As far as I know, we have no specific target in mind," he said. Filling storage capacity would benefit energy security, but it could also affect prices and favour speculation by increasing demand when it might otherwise be low, Boschi said. The EU stockfill regulations aim to ensure adequate winter gas reserves. But European summer-winter gas price spreads remain inverted out several years, providing no incentive to book storage capacity during that time. PSV summer 2025 prices closed €4.81/MWh above the winter 2025-26 contract on Tuesday. Seasonal contracts on Argus Italian curve do not extend beyond that, but EU benchmark Dutch TTF summer-winter spreads for storage years 2026-27 and 2027-28 closed at +€2.805/MWh and +€0.20/MWh, respectively, on Tuesday. Italy — the EU member with the second-largest storage capacity after Germany — has been looking at a raft of options to curb energy prices for businesses and households, which are among the highest in Europe. The Italian government approved legislation last week to bring forward storage auctions for the 2025-26 year to allow the market to book capacity if price spreads become favourable in February-March. Italian storage operator Stogit plans to offer 2.5bn m³ of capacity starting from 1 April across products lasting 1-5 years on 17 February-19 March. Compatriot storage operator Edison Stoccaggio plans to offer around 900mn m³ of 2025-26 capacity, but has yet to announce auction dates. In any event, the EU's Gas Co-ordination Group is scheduled to meet on Thursday and may discuss gas storage targets. By Stephen Jewkes and Jeff Kuntz Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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