The UK's N2EX power spot index for tomorrow cleared at its lowest in more than two weeks owing to forecast lower demand and higher wind output, likely supporting exports to France.
The N2EX day-ahead spot cleared at £95.27/MWh for tomorrow, falling from as high as £261.22/MWh for Wednesday. Hourly prices cleared at a low of £34.05/MWh between 04:00-05:00 GMT tomorrow, in settlement periods 9-11.
National demand — which excludes interconnector exports, as well as station load and pumped-storage pumping — is forecast to peak at 38.8GW on Friday, down from 41.1GW forecast for today and 43.1GW for yesterday. Minimum temperatures in London Heathrow are forecast to rise to 5.4°C from just 0.8°C today and above an average of 2.9°C so far in January — 2.1°C below the 10-year norm for the period.
Combined metered and embedded wind output is forecast at 14.2GW, with gale force winds expected in parts of the UK as storm Eowyn hits the country. UK weather agency the Met Office has issued a red weather warning for Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland tomorrow. Wind output is expected to rise sharply from just 11.4GW expected for today and well above Wednesday. Output on Wednesday was just 836MW, the lowest since March 2022.
Higher wind output is likely to support exports to continental markets, particularly during off-peak hours, while day-ahead cross-border capacity auctions indicate the UK is due to shift to being a net exporter with France across the whole day. Allocated capacity in the GB-France direction on the IFA and IFA2 links — each with 1GW available — cleared at implied premiums to the reverse direction of €26.70/MWh (£22.53/MWh) and €24.02/MWh (£20.27/MWh), respectively. The UK was a net exporter to France for much of last week, with net exports averaging 750MW on 13-18 January, when wind output in the UK averaged 10.6GW.
Outages at the 1GW Eleclink with France and 1GW BritNed with the Netherlands, along with a 700MW curtailment at the 1.4GW Viking Link with Denmark, remain in place.

