Trump makes U-turn on Canada, Mexico tariffs: Update

: Crude oil, Natural gas
25/02/03

US president Donald Trump reversed course on planned tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, delaying their implementation by one month.

Trump over the weekend issued executive orders for a 25pc tariff on all imports from Mexico, a 25pc tariff on non-energy imports from Canada, a 10pc tax on Canadian energy imports and a 10pc tariff on all imports from China, all to be effective on 4 February.

But Trump delayed the tariffs on Mexico and Canada by a month and has indicated that tariffs on China likewise could be subject to negotiations with Beijing.

Trump's decision-making on Mexico and Canada tariffs so far looks like a signature move from his first term — escalatory rhetoric and action followed by de-escalation after extracting concessions that do not appear to be significant.

Trump said today he agreed to postpone the implementation of tariffs on Mexican goods after receiving assurances from Mexico president Claudia Sheinbaum that she would immediately reinforce the shared border with 10,000 national guard troops.

Trump also cited similar assurances from Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau.

"As President, it is my responsibility to ensure the safety of ALL Americans, and I am doing just that," Trump said via his social media platform. "I am very pleased with this initial outcome."

In both cases, the border security pledges touted by Sheinbaum and Trudeau recast initiatives already planned or underway.

Trump told reporters today he would "be speaking to China probably over the next 24 hours" — likely meaning the country's president Xi Jinping. Unlike Mexico and Canada, China has taken a restrained stance to Trump's announcement of tariffs. Like the US immediate neighbors, China already has been taking steps to cut off the illegal manufacturing and exports of precursors for fentanyl — the pretext for Trump's tariffs.

Things can only get bitter

The announcement of tariffs that would have directly hit US energy trade will leave many in the industry scratching their heads about Trump's future moves. A major trade war that would have severely curtailed the flow of energy and other commodities across North America is averted for now, but Trump is signaling that tariffs remain a key plank on his policy agenda.

Trump has shrugged off any negative impacts on the US energy sector and the broader economy, saying over the weekend that "WE WILL MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, AND IT WILL ALL BE WORTH THE PRICE THAT MUST BE PAID." In remarks to reporters today, Trump pushed back against criticism of negative impacts of his tariffs.

"Very simply, every single country that you're writing about right now is dying to make a deal," Trump said.

In the immediate term, the Trump administration will hold high-level talks with the governments of Mexico and Canada against the deadline for the delayed imposition of tariffs.

But down the line, there are other motivations for Trump to move forward with tariffs against key US trading partners. Trump today once again decried the "massive deficits" the US has in trade with Canada, Mexico, China, the EU and the UK. And then there is the lure of tariff revenue that Trump — with an eye toward upcoming congressional deliberation of extending tax cuts beyond 2025 — says would be sufficient to offset lower personal and corporate taxes.

Trump set a 1 April deadline for US government agencies to prepare a report on "unfair trade practices" by key US trading partners, which would kick off a legal process for imposing tariffs in the following two months. Trump is separately planning to review the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement that his first administration negotiated in 2019.

Unlike the tariffs that were due to be imposed on Tuesday by an executive order, the broader plan for tariffs scheduled to kick in after 1 April would be harder to reverse or to negotiate away.

And his first two weeks in office show that, despite his claim to be championing America's "energy dominance", the US energy industry would not be exempt during the upcoming trade wars.

By Haik Gugarats

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25/03/21

Opec+ overproducers outline new compensation plans

London, 21 March (Argus) — Seven Opec+ members have submitted plans to the Opec secretariat detailing how they intend to compensate for producing above their crude production targets since January 2024. The plans show that Iraq, Kazakhstan, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman and Saudi Arabia will reduce their combined output by an average of 263,000 b/d over the 15 months to June next year (see table) . This is to compensate for exceeding their production targets by a cumulative 4.203mn b/d between January 2024 and February 2025. This figure does not represent a monthly average, but rather the sum of the monthly volumes by which the group's overproducers have surpassed their respective output ceilings. It works out to an average monthly overproduction of 300,000 b/d in the same period. If implemented fully, these compensation related cuts would partly offset a plan by these seven members plus Algeria to return 2.2mn b/d of voluntary production cuts starting in April over 18 months. In fact, the scheduled output increases for April and May would be entirely wiped out. But there is no guarantee the compensation related cuts will be delivered. Some members, Iraq and Kazakhstan in particular, have largely failed to deliver on past commitments to reduce output to below their production targets. By Aydin Calik Opec+ overproduction compensation plan* Iraq Kuwait Saudi Arabia UAE Kazakhstan Oman Russia Total Mar-25 116 15 38 5 25 199 Apr-25 116 8 9 5 53 7 51 249 May-25 135 15 6 10 57 10 76 309 Jun-25 130 23 10 72 12 102 349 Jul-25 120 30 10 66 14 127 367 Aug-25 115 38 10 81 18 152 414 Sep-25 120 27 10 85 20 173 435 Oct-25 120 10 90 13 233 Nov-25 120 20 84 224 Dec-25 120 20 49 189 Jan-26 123 33 39 195 Feb-26 123 33 38 194 Mar-26 123 33 40 196 Apr-26 123 50 38 211 May-26 125 55 42 222 Jun-26 125 56 36 217 Average reduction 262.7 *the amount by which members pledge to produce below their existing targets each month Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Canada needs more oil pipelines: PM Carney

25/03/20

Canada needs more oil pipelines: PM Carney

Calgary, 20 March (Argus) — Canada needs to build more oil pipelines to reduce its dependence on foreign supplies while opening up new trade corridors for exports, prime minister Mark Carney said today, amid an escalating trade war with the US. "It's about getting things done. It's about getting, yes, getting pipelines built, across this country, so we that can displace imports of foreign oil," Carney said while in Edmonton, Alberta. A US-triggered trade war has sparked an urgent need across Canada to diversify its trading partners and limit the country's reliance on the US. This has lifted public support for getting pipelines and other infrastructure energy projects built. The prime minister envisions the federal government "using all of its power" and new legislation to expedite such projects, adding "additional levers" will be discussed when he meets with provincial premiers on 21 March. "We need to do things that had not been imagined or had not been thought possible, at a speed we haven't seen before," said Carney. "That's the nature of the time." TC Energy's current chief executive along with 13 other executives from the country's largest oil and gas companies urged the federal government this week to declare a "Canadian energy crisis" to expedite infrastructure projects. General election soon Carney is expected to call a general election soon with his Liberal party riding high in the polls. Despite the Liberals' recent track record on energy infrastructure, Carney is looking to appeal to Alberta voters eager for pipelines who typically vote for the rival, pro-oil patch Conservatives. A combined C$280bn ($194bn) of Canadian oil and natural gas projects have been cancelled over the past decade, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. Of this, C$164bn in the form of LNG projects, C$63bn in pipeline projects, C$30bn in oil sands projects and C$22bn in refinery projects. TC Energy's 1.1mn b/d Energy East pipeline is commonly referenced by industry as a nation-building project that, proposed in 2013, would have supplied Albertan oil to eastern Canada but was abandoned because of changing regulations. There was still no clear indication of when a decision by the federal government could be obtained when TC Energy cancelled it in 2017. Energy East would have piped oil as far east as Irving Oil's 320,000 b/d refinery in Saint John, New Brunswick, which relies on foreign imports, while also giving shippers an outlet to export to Europe and beyond. Canada imported 490,000 b/d of crude in 2023, according to the Canada Energy Regulator (CER). Of this, 355,000 b/d came from the US, 63,000 b/d from Nigeria and 53,000 b/d from Saudi Arabia. Canada meanwhile produces about 5mn b/d, sending about 80pc of that to the US. Carney's infrastructure push includes the proposed Pathways Alliance project in Alberta, which entails a C$16.5bn carbon capture and storage hub that could remove up to 22mn t/yr of CO2 by 2030. Generally, Carney wants to pursue energy and trade corridors and trade including potentially from Alberta to either the Canada's Arctic coast in Nunavut or to Hudson Bay via Churchill, Manitoba. Or both. The subject of trade and pipelines was front and center during a meeting with Alberta premier Danielle Smith earlier in the day, who has criticized the federal Liberals for years. "Albertans will no longer tolerate the way we've been treated by the federal Liberals over the past 10 years," said Smith in a statement, adding a specific list of demands, including "unfettered oil and gas corridors to the north, east and west". The Nunavut project, called the Grays Bay Road and Port Project, is a proposed deepwater port that would cater to critical mineral exports. The proponent, West Kitikmeot Resources, told Argus earlier this month that it had not yet had discussions with Alberta about developing crude capabilities. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Upper Mississippi River reopens for transit

25/03/20

Upper Mississippi River reopens for transit

Houston, 20 March (Argus) — The first towboat arrived at St Paul, Minnesota, today, marking the start of the 2025 navigation season on the upper Mississippi River, according to the US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps). The Neil N. Diehl passed through Lock 2 at Hastings, Minnesota, with nine barges, crossing into St Paul on 19 March. Tows reaching St Paul signify the unofficial start of the navigation season, as St Paul is the last port to open on the Mississippi River after winter ice thaws each year. This is considered an average start time for the navigation season, which typically opens the third week of March. The first tow to reach St Paul in 2024 arrived on 17 March. The Corps released the final Lake Pepin ice measurements of 17in on 12 March and was unable to take new measurements this week since the ice had melted significantly. Lake Pepin measurements help determine when the ice will be thin enough for barges to transit up river. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil central bank raises target rate to 14.25pc

25/03/20

Brazil central bank raises target rate to 14.25pc

Sao Paulo, 20 March (Argus) — Brazil's central bank raised its target interest rate by 1 percentage point to 14.25pc amid accelerating inflation in a decelerating — but still heated — economy. The hike in the target rate, announced Wednesday, was the fifth in a row from a cyclical low of 10.5pc at the end of September last year, partly prompted by accelerating depreciation of the currency, the real, to the US dollar. Brazil's annualized inflation hit 5.06pc in February and is poised to keep accelerating. The bank's Focus economic report increased its inflation forecast to 5.7pc for the end-of-year 2025 from 5.5pc in January, when the bank's policy-making committee last met. Brazil's current government has an inflation ceiling goal of 3pc with tolerance of 1.5 percentage point above or below. The bank has recently changed the way it tracks the inflation goal. Instead of tracking inflation on a calendar year basis, it now monitors the goal on a rolling 12-month basis. The bank cited heated economic activity and a strong labor market as factors that have contributed to rising inflation. But the bank forecasts "modest GDP growth" for Brazil of almost 2pc in 2025, down from 3.4pc growth last year. Further tightening will also be linked to global economic uncertainty prompted by US president Donald Trump's aggressive trade and other policies and the monetary policies of the US Federal Reserve , according to the bank. Brazil's target interest rate is expected to keep rising at the bank's next meeting in 6-7 May, albeit to "a lesser extent" as the contributing factors are set to moderate, according to the committee. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Nigeria's Trans-Niger oil pipeline restarts after fire

25/03/20

Nigeria's Trans-Niger oil pipeline restarts after fire

Lagos, 20 March (Argus) — Nigeria has restarted pumping crude through the 180,000 b/d Trans-Niger Pipeline (TNP) to the Bonny export terminal after an apparent attack led to a fire earlier this week, halting flows and prompting President Bola Tinubu to declare a state of emergency in Rivers State . The Renaissance Africa consortium — which only last week took over operatorship of the TNP and the Bonny terminal from Shell — said pipeline flows were restored on 19 March "following integrity inspection, testing and activation of a second pipeline within the network". The last 20km stretch of the 60km TNP, between the Cawthorne Channel and the Bonny terminal, has separate 30-inch and 24-inch lines. Renaissance Africa did not say which of the two is currently active. The fire on the pipeline caused a brief halt to operations at the Bonny terminal but loadings have now resumed. A source at state-owned oil firm NNPC told Argus that the Bryanston tanker started loading at the terminal at 23:54 local time on 19 March. Market participants said loading operations at the export terminal were behind schedule by up to two weeks anyway. Before the pipeline fire, the next scheduled operation at the terminal had been to pump 475,000 bl of Bonny Light crude to NNPC's 210,000 b/d Port Harcourt refinery. NNPC said it had to contain a flare incident at the refinery on 19 March. The company described it as "a minor incident" and said the refinery remains operational and "continues to produce on-spec refined petroleum products". The TNP has been the target of repeated oil theft, vandalism and sabotage in the past. As part of the state of emergency in Rivers State, President Tinubu appointed a former chief of the navy as the state's sole administrator for the next six months, but this is subject to the approval of the national legislature, which is expected later today. A Renaissance Africa source said its drilling operations in Rivers State have continued uninterrupted, while an energy lawyer based in the state's capital Port Harcourt told Argus that government and private business in the city have continued as normal. It is too early to say if and to what extent the pipeline incident has impacted Nigeria's crude output. Production of the Bonny Light crude grade fell by 14pc on the month to 210,000 b/d in February, according to upstream regulator NUPRC. Renaissance Africa said a TNP joint investigation visit, led by NUPRC, is scheduled for today. By Adebiyi Olusolape Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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