Generic Hero BannerGeneric Hero Banner
Latest market news

Trump tariffs to hit North American energy trade

  • Market: Crude oil, Fertilizers, Metals, Natural gas, Oil products, Petroleum coke
  • 02/02/25

US president Donald Trump is set to disrupt the integrated North American energy market with tariffs of 10pc on Canadian energy imports and 25pc on Mexico-sourced energy commodities, effective on 4 February.

Trump on Saturday issued executive orders that would impose taxes of 25pc on all imports from Mexico and 25pc on all non-energy imports from Canada, effective on 4 February. Most energy commodities imported from Canada would be subject to a lower, 10pc tariff. Imported goods in transit before 12:01am ET on 1 February would not be subject to those levies.

The Canada energy exemption applies to "crude oil, natural gas, lease condensates, natural gas liquids, refined petroleum products, uranium, coal, biofuels, geothermal heat, the kinetic movement of flowing water and critical minerals".

Trump and the White House did not explain why he made a slight concession on the Canadian energy commodities. The US-Canada energy trade is particularly vulnerable to tariffs, for both sides. More than 4mn b/d of Canada's exports are wholly dependent on pipeline routes to and through the US. Conversely, many refineries in the US midcontinent have no practical alternative to the Canadian crude.

Industry group the American Petroleum Institute said on Saturday that it would "continue to work with the Trump administration on full exclusions that protect energy affordability for consumers, expand the nation's energy advantage and support American jobs".

Trump imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as on China, by declaring a "national emergency" related to alleged inability of those countries to stem the flow of migrants and illegal drug fentanyl to the US.

The White House in previous decades has used emergency declarations to impose sanctions against foreign countries, and US courts have stayed away from challenging the executive branch on such declarations and their economic applications.

The choice of an emergency declaration also is meant to prevent the US Congress, which retains primary authority over US international trade, from intervening legislatively to remove tariffs.

Congressional Republicans, at any rate, quickly hailed Trump's decision. By contrast, Democratic lawmakers and state officials denounced the tariffs and cited inflationary effects of the import taxes.

Tit for tat

Canada's prime minister Justin Trudeau said on Saturday that his country's energy exports to the US would factor in with other retaliatory measures, possibly in the form of export taxes.

"There are a number of different industries and regions of the country that can have greater leverage over the US," Trudeau said. "One thinks of the oil industry for example."

Alberta premier Danielle Smith said on Saturday that she would oppose efforts to ban or to tax exports to the US. Trudeau said he would hold consultations with regional and business leaders before taking any counter-measures.

But he added, "no one part of the country should be carrying a heavier burden than another."

Trudeau said that Canada would apply a 25pc import tax on C$30bn ($21bn) worth of imports from the US on 4 February, followed by a 25pc tariff on an additional C$125bn worth of imports on 25 February.

Denouncing Trump's punitive tariffs and his frequent derogatory comments about the US' northern neighbor, Trudeau, in comments directed at a US audience, said: "From the beaches of Normandy to the mountains of the Korean Peninsula, from the fields of Flanders to the streets of Kandahar, we have fought and died alongside you."

Mexico's president Claudia Sheinbaum likewise criticized Trump's action, characterizing as "slander" the text of his executive orders, which alleged that Mexico's government was an instrument of the country's drug cartels.

But Mexico did not unveil specific countermeasures against Trump's tariffs.

"I instruct the secretary of economy to implement Plan B, which we have been working on, including tariff and non-tariff measures in defense of Mexico's interests," Sheinbaum said on Saturday.

Trump's executive orders call for raising US tariffs if Canada and Mexico retaliate.

Effects to be felt across the economy

The North American energy industry is an obvious casualty of Trump's trade war. But its effects will be felt in automobile manufacturing, agriculture, steel, aluminum, potash and every other sector of the economy in all three countries.

Nearly all of Mexico's roughly 500,000 b/d of crude shipments to the US in January-November 2024 were waterborne cargoes sent to US Gulf coast refiners. Those shipments in the future could be diverted to Asia or Europe.

Tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico would most likely have the greatest impact on US Atlantic coast motor fuel markets.

The tariffs may affect regional natural gas price spreads and increase costs for downstream consumers, but there is limited scope for a reduction in gas flows between the two countries — at least in the short term.

Tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports also will disrupt years of free-flowing polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) trade between the three countries, market sources said.

North American steel trading costs could rise by as much at $5.3bn across the three nations, since Mexico and Canada are expected to issue reciprocal tariffs against the US, as it did when Trump issued tariffs in his first term.

The tariffs could also disrupt US corn and soybean sales, since China and Mexico account for 48pc of US corn exports and 61pc of US soybean exports since 2019, according to US Department of Agriculture data.


Sharelinkedin-sharetwitter-sharefacebook-shareemail-share

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News
13/02/25

Better Opec+ compliance narrowing supply surplus: IEA

Better Opec+ compliance narrowing supply surplus: IEA

London, 13 February (Argus) — The IEA said today that the Opec+ alliance's improving compliance with agreed crude production targets is "slowly chipping away" at its projected supply surplus this year. In its latest Oil Market Report (OMR), the Paris-based agency again lowered its forecasted surplus for this year, this time by 270,000 b/d to 450,000 b/d. This is the agency's third consecutive downgrade since November, when it saw 2025 supply outstripping demand by 1.15mn b/d. These forecasts are subject to change. With data now "largely complete" for 2024, the agency's balances show supply matching and demand exactly at 102.9mn b/d. This is a long way off the 800,000 b/d supply surplus the IEA forecast for 2024 this time last year. Opec+ is implementing three sets of crude production cuts, and is scheduled to start unwinding one of these — totalling 2.2mn b/d — starting in April. A recent meeting of the group's key producers signalled no change to this plan . The IEA continues to assume all Opec+ cuts will remain in place this year. But the agency said that should production return as planned, this would add 430,000 b/d to its 2025 supply forecast. Aside from Opec+, there are other key supply uncertainties this year. These range from new US sanctions targeting Russian and Iranian oil exports to US tariffs on some of its key trading partners. "It is still too early to tell how trade flows will respond to new US tariffs or the prospect thereof, and what the impact of the escalation of sanctions on Iran and Russia may be in the longer run," the IEA said. As thing stand, the IEA sees global oil supply growing by 1.56mn b/d this year to 104.45mn b/d, compared with growth of 1.76mn b/d projected in its January report. This slower growth was largely driven by Opec+, which the agency now sees supplying 170,000 b/d less than previously thought this year. It also noted a 950,000 b/d fall in global oil supply in January, "with extreme cold weather hitting North American supply, compounding large declines in Nigerian and Libyan production." On demand, the agency upgraded its growth forecast this year by 50,000 b/d to 1.1mn b/d. It sees oil demand at 104mn b/d in 2025, driven by "a minor pickup in GDP growth and lower oil prices as per the current forward curve." The IEA said global observed oil stocks fell by 17.1mn bl in December. Crude stocks fell by 63.5mn bl and products stocks rose by 46.4mn bl. It said preliminary data show global stocks falling by 49.3mn bl in January, led by large draw in China. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more
News

India’s Fact issues tender to buy phosacid


12/02/25
News
12/02/25

India’s Fact issues tender to buy phosacid

London, 12 February (Argus) — Indian fertilizer importer and producer Fact has issued a tender to buy up to 12,000t of phosphoric acid, closing on 18 February. Fact is seeking phosphoric acid containing 46-53pc P2O5 for laycan during 20 March-10 April and shipment to Kochi on India's southwest coast. Offers are to be valid for seven days after opening and will include 30 days' credit. Offers will be given as a premium or discount to the first-quarter phosphoric acid contract price of $1,055/t P2O5 cfr India. By Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Mexico factory output dips 1.4pc in December


12/02/25
News
12/02/25

Mexico factory output dips 1.4pc in December

Mexico City, 12 February (Argus) — Mexico's industrial production fell 1.4pc in December from the previous month with broad weakness across multiple sectors on tariff uncertainty and weak domestic demand. The result marks the largest monthly decline of 2024 and was weaker than the 1pc decline forecast by Mexican bank Banorte. It followed a nearly flat reading in November. Trade uncertainty and low domestic demand weighed on industrial production in December, said Banorte, with industry "sluggishness" likely through mid-2025. Manufacturing, which represents 63pc of Inegi's seasonally adjusted industrial activity indicator (IMAI), decreased by 1.2pc after rising 0.7pc in November. Transportation equipment manufacturing output, which comprises 24pc of the manufacturing component, has fluctuated in recent months, falling 6.4pc in December after a 3.6pc uptick in November and a 4.4pc decline in October. Despite this, Mexico's auto sector achieved record annual light vehicle production and exports in 2024. However, Mexican auto industry associations confirm investment in the sector has begun to slow on uncertainty tied to concerns over potential US tariffs and slow economic growth in 2025. Taking the base case that tariffs do not materialize, Banorte expects manufacturing to rebound in the second half of the year as uncertainty lifts and interest rates fall with rate cuts at the central bank. Mining, which makes up 12pc of the IMAI, was lower by 1pc in December, following a 0.5pc increase in November. The decline was again driven by the oil and gas production, falling by 2.5pc in December to mark a sixth consecutive monthly decline for hydrocarbons output. Construction, representing 19pc of the IMAI, contracted by 2.1pc in December with setbacks in all categories. This matched the November result, with Inegi recording declines in construction in five of the last seven months. From a year prior, industrial production fell by 2.4pc in December , while manufacturing fell by 0.3pc and construction declined by 7.1pc in December. Mining was down by 6.2pc. B y James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

US inflation quickens to 3pc in January


12/02/25
News
12/02/25

US inflation quickens to 3pc in January

Houston, 12 February (Argus) — US consumer inflation accelerated in January to the fastest pace in half a year, supporting the Federal Reserve's recent decision to pause in its course of rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3pc in January from a year before, accelerating from 2.9pc in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. That marked a fourth month of annual gains from a low of 2.4pc in September. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy, rose by an annual 3.3pc in January from 3.2pc in December. The acceleration in inflation reinforces the Fed's decision last month to hold its target rate steady after three prior rate cuts. The Fed has said it does "not need to be in a hurry" to change its stance while it weighs the impacts of President Donald Trump's tariff policies and other "incoming information". Trump won the November election partly on a pledge to bring down inflation. The energy index rose by 1pc in January following a 0.5pc contraction through December. Gasoline fell by 0.2pc in January after a 3.5pc contraction through December. Piped gas rose by 4.9pc for a second month. Food rose by an annual 2.5pc, matching the prior month's annual gain. Eggs surged by an annual 53pc, as avian flu has slashed supply. Shelter rose by 4.4pc, accounting for 30pc of the overall monthly gain in CPI, slowing from 4.6pc in December. Services less energy services rose by 4.3pc in January following a 4.4pc gain New vehicles fell by 0.3pc after a 0.4pc contraction. Transportation services rose by an annual 8pc in January after a 7.3pc gain in December. Car insurance was up by an annual 11.8pc and airline fares were up by 7.1pc. CPI accelerated to 0.5pc in January from the prior month, the most since August 2023. That followed a monthly gain of 0.4pc in December, 0.3pc in November and three prior months of 0.2pc gains. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

US trade policy adds uncertainty to oil market: Opec


12/02/25
News
12/02/25

US trade policy adds uncertainty to oil market: Opec

London, 12 February (Argus) — Opec said today that the US' new trade policies have added "more uncertainty" into global oil markets. This uncertainty "has the potential to create supply-demand imbalances that are not reflective of market fundamentals, and therefore generate more volatility", Opec said in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR). The producer group said the uncertainty has also "increased inflation expectations" and "made it more challenging to cut interest rates in 2025". US president Donald Trump started his new term in January with threats to impose a wide array of import tariffs on several big trading partners. Washington has so far announced new tariffs on imports from China, as well as on all US imports of steel and aluminium. And Trump says more tariffs are on the way. For now, Opec has kept its global oil demand growth projections for both 2025 and 2026 unchanged. For this year, the group sees oil demand growing by 1.45mn b/d to 105.2mn b/d, while in 2026 it sees consumption increasing by 1.43mn b/d to 106.63mn b/d. In terms of supply, the group has downgraded its growth forecast for non-Opec+ liquids for 2025 and 2026 by 100,000 b/d each to 1mn b/d for both years. The downgrade is driven by the US and Latin America. Opec+ crude production — including Mexico — fell by 118,000 b/d to 40.625mn b/d, according to an average of secondary sources that includes Argus . Opec puts the call on Opec+ crude at 42.6mn b/d in 2025 and 42.9mn b/d in 2026. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Generic Hero Banner

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more