Mexico bets on new contract model to lift gas output

: Natural gas
25/05/02

Mexico's push to raise domestic gas output to 5 Bcf/d by 2030 depends on a new shared participation model designed to attract private investment, with four strategic gas fields prioritized as tenders begin.

State-owned Pemex this week released the detailed guidelines for the mixed production scheme, first introduced in February. The model guarantees Pemex at least a 40pc share of production and gives the company wide discretion to set contract terms and choose the bidding process — including no-bid awards.

But interest in the new contracts is expected to center on Mexican firms with close ties to President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration, such as Carlos Slim's Grupo Carso, according to market sources.

"With these guidelines, Pemex can finally pick and choose who they want, how they want," said Miriam Grunstein, a former adviser to energy regulator CRE and senior partner at Brilliant Energy Consulting.

"The downside is they are likely to turn to Mexican firms that lack the technical experience for complex projects, rather than international companies with the know-how for deep-water or unconventional plays," Grunstein said.

"This scheme isn't made for companies like BHP, Total, or Eni," added Eduardo Prud'homme, former technical director at Cenagas and co-partner at consultancy Gadex. "Pemex doesn't want operators as partners. Though it is perfect for Carso."

A relative newcomer to the upstream sector, Carso is one of the government's most important contractors for infrastructure projects and stands to gain on future business whether or not the upstream partnerships succeed.

Prud'homme doubts international majors looking for a one-off deal would be willing to take on the heavily regulated, high-risk projects when the maximum stake is 60pc.

"If you fail, Pemex will not share the loss," said Prud'homme. "If you succeed, Pemex decides how much to share."

Pemex management said it plans to launch 17 projects under the new scheme this year. It remains unclear how many of these will focus on gas development.

Still, gas is a core focus. Pemex's 2025–2030 business plan allocates Ps238bn (US$12.1bn) to gas projects in pursuit of the 5 Bcf/d goal. Four key fields — Burgos, Quesqui, Ixachi and Bakte — are expected to provide 54pc of total projected output.

Carso is already active, partnering with Pemex on the complex deep-water Lakach gas project, which is now expected to migrate from a service contract to the new mixed contract model. Slim began renegotiations in February after the model was announced.

Carso has also expanded upstream, buying into the oil-rich Zama project in December. In March, Sheinbaum confirmed the government is in talks with Carso to partner on Ixachi.

Turning the tide

Still, gas output continues to decline. An analysis by Mexican think tank IMCO found that Pemex and its farmout partners this year posted their lowest first-quarter gas production in 15 years.

In the first quarter, Pemex produced 4.408 Bcf/d of gas, down by 8pc from the same period in 2024 and 12pc lower compared with the same quarter 2023. The 367 MMcf/d annual decline marks the steepest first-quarter drop since 2018, when output fell by 536 MMcf/d year over year.

On the positive side, Pemex's natural gas production in March ticked 0.3pc higher from the previous month to 4.39 Bcf/d – marking the second consecutive month of increases after February output was up 1.3pc from January.

By James Young

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

25/12/18

Ithaca first to try new UK North Sea regime

London, 18 December (Argus) — UK-listed upstream producer Ithaca Energy has begun the approval process for a development in the North Sea, the first since the government softened its approach to the region. Ithaca has submitted a development summary and environmental statement for the Fotla field to the offshore regulator Opred. It outlines a two-well tie-back to the Britannia platform, which processes liquids from the Greater Britannia Area, including Ithaca's Alder field. Ithaca indicates that if the process is successful, drilling will begin in the first half of 2027, with first oil in the final quarter of that year. This is the first submission of an offshore proposal since the UK government published its 'North Sea Future Plan' alongside its budget in late November. That enables "limited oil and gas production in areas that are already part of an existing field, or in areas adjacent to already licensed fields, linked via a tieback, to help ensure they remain economically viable". Developers are not permitted to explore for oil and gas at these sites, and a ban remains on new oil and gas licensing. London's stance on North Sea development has delayed the Rosebank project, in which Ithaca holds a 20pc stake, and the company's west of Shetland Cambo project. Ithaca expects its production to average 119,000-125,000 b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) this year. By Ben Winkley Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

BP appoints Woodside’s O’Neill as next CEO

25/12/17

BP appoints Woodside’s O’Neill as next CEO

New York, 17 December (Argus) — BP appointed Woodside Energy chief executive officer Meg O'Neill as its next chief executive effective from next April. O'Neill will replace Murray Auchincloss, who has decided to step down on 18 December after more than three decades with the London-based oil major. O'Neill transformed Woodside into the biggest energy company listed on the Australian Securities Exchange after taking over as chief executive in 2021, according to BP. While at Woodside, she also oversaw the acquisition of BHP Petroleum International. O'Neill also spent more than two decades at ExxonMobil earlier in her career. "Her proven track record of driving transformation, growth, and disciplined capital allocation makes her the right leader for BP," said Albert Manifold, chairman of the company's board of directors. Carol Howle, executive vice president, supply, trading & shipping of BP, will serve as interim chief executive until O'Neill takes over. Auchincloss will also serve in an advisory role until December 2026 to ensure a smooth transition. BP scaled back ambitious low-carbon goals earlier this year with Auchincloss conceding that the company had been "optimistic for a fast [energy] transition but that optimism was misplaced." The company raised its 2030 target for oil and gas production as part of a "fundamental reset" of strategy that also entailed a cut in renewable energy investments. O'Neill's appointment follows a search process overseen by the board, with the help of an independent recruitment firm, as part of the company's long-term succession planning. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

LNG supply growth outstrips carrier orderbook to 2030

25/12/17

LNG supply growth outstrips carrier orderbook to 2030

With the acceleration of scrapping of LNG carriers, the number of newbuilds is insufficient to keep pace with supply growth, writes Cerys Edwards London, 17 December (Argus) — The number of newbuild LNG carriers scheduled to deliver by 2030 will not be enough to transport the planned growth in global liquefaction capacity, particularly if the retirement of older vessels accelerates compared with recent years. But the balance in the freight market will depend heavily on the configuration of LNG trade flows over the rest of the decade. Some 234 newbuild LNG carriers are scheduled to be delivered over 2026-2030, according to data from the International Maritime Organisation (IMO), with deliveries in 2026 set to be the quickest year on record. Typically, around 1½ ships are needed to transport 1mn t of new liquefaction supply to Europe, and three ships for the equivalent journey to Asia, Capital Clean Energy Carriers chief executive Jerry Kalogiratos said at the World LNG Summit in Istanbul in December. Applying this basic assumption, the 234 newbuild carriers could transport some 158mn t/yr of new liquefaction capacity were the supply to deliver solely to Europe. But the newbuilds provide scope for just 78mn t/yr of new loading demand should the vessels deliver to Asia, which Kalogiratos considers the more probable scenario, given that buyers in southeast Asia are likely to consume more LNG in the forthcoming years. "There definitely looks like there is going to be a shortage", he says. Both scenarios indicate that the present LNG carrier orderbook is not large enough to accommodate the 229mn t/yr of new export capacity scheduled to come on line by 2030, judging by the projects that have already reached a final investment decision (FID). And the LNG carrier market could tighten further if more projects reach FID. Even the roughly 80mn t/yr of additional production capacity that was sanctioned this year are "not yet covered," according to David Colson, vice president at French engineering firm GTT, which supplies nearly all of the membrane containment systems used in LNG vessel tanks. The golden age of steam coming to an end? The LNG freight market balance over the coming years will also largely depend on the number of older vessels being scrapped, which rose sharply this year. A record 14 steam turbines have been sold for scrap so far in 2025, up from eight in the whole of 2024 and an average of five over 2020-24. And the pace of scrapping is likely to accelerate over the next few years, as vessels roll off long-term charter agreements, Kalogiratos says. Steam turbine carriers are "obsolete" as their high boil-off costs and smaller cargo capacity sizes do not provide the "flexibility that the current LNG trading environment requires", he added. There are 29 operational LNG carriers that are 25 years old or older, including the 137,000m³ Puteri Nilam and same-sized Al Jasra which have in recent months idled in the strait of Malacca and Bay of Brunei, according to shiptracking data from Kpler. The oldest LNG carrier still in operation is the 128,000m³ LNG Maleo , which was built in 1989 and is controlled by Indonesia's state-owned Pertamina. As well as these vessels, there are a further 47 built in 2000-2005, including 11 idling in either Malacca or Brunei Bay. These are likely to be retired by 2030, given the average age of the vessels sold for scrap in 2025 was 26, Norwegian shipping firm Flex LNG said in its third-quarter earnings call last month. Were all 76 vessels built before 2005 scrapped by 2030, it would limit the fleet growth to a total of just 158 LNG carriers. Under the scenario outlined above this number of vessels could transport 105mn t/yr of supply to Europe and just 53mn t/yr to Asia — both far below the planned capacity buildout. The LNG carrier orderbook could still grow in the coming years however, given slots for late 2028 delivery are still available at some South Korean shipyards. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

UK government eyes gas market regulatory push in 2026

25/12/17

UK government eyes gas market regulatory push in 2026

Momentum is growing in the UK for regulatory changes aimed at reshaping the country's gas system, writes Isabel Valverde Sala London, 17 December (Argus) — Natural gas has climbed up the UK government agenda in recent months, with regulation processes unfolding and culminating in 2026 likely to be pivotal for the future of the UK gas market. The country's department for energy security and net zero (Desnz) launched a consultation in late November aimed at reviewing the UK's security of gas supply , including proposals aimed at ensuring infrastructure capacity, preparing the system for unplanned outages and ensuring a viable commercial model for the UK gas market. This is the latest of a series of consultations held by the ministry in recent months, with a view of gathering information and views from the market before laying down any proposals for market reforms. The government had first announced its intention to address the challenges facing the country's gas system in a policy paper published in June, which minister of state for energy Michael Shanks described as "the first major publication on the gas system in many years". The document sets three core objectives for the coming years — preserving energy security in a context of declining production, ensuring continued investment in infrastructure, and managing a sustainable transition of the gas network "towards other uses in a context of declining production", the paper says. Market participants can send their comments to the latest consultation until 18 February, and Desnz intends to publish a response to the feedback in the spring of 2026. The ministry is also set to launch a call for evidence on network investment and affordability before the end of this year as part of this programme. And next year, the department plans to issue another call for evidence on transitioning the gas network, according to the market update. Separately, an ongoing parliamentary enquiry is at present gathering views from market participants on how to manage a declining gas domestic market. Overall gas consumption across the UK has fallen at an average 8pc rate over the past three years, figures from system operator National Gas show. The call for evidence closes on 7 January and could eventually lead the Energy Security and Net Zero Committee to put forward its own proposals for debate in Parliament. Small steps to move faster The update to the market was the "first step in a long-term programme" aimed at transforming the country's gas system, and it may take years until the initiative turns into policy. But other government measures — including the North Sea Future Plan — may begin influencing the market sooner. The plan, published as part of the government's 2025 budget, announced a new system of "transitional energy certificates" to encourage firms to produce gas from areas adjacent to operating fields as a means to maximise output from tapped-in resources. This would enable faster production compared with traditional licences, according to the government. And ongoing efforts by the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA) to retrieve as much gas as possible from active wells could slow down the decline in domestic gas production. The NSTA expects UK gas production to halve by 2030, compared with 2025 levels. The authority has worked with different well operators since 2024 to identify and reactivate shut-in wells, and it will continue to do so by engaging with new companies in the forthcoming months, it said in November. After years in the making, UK energy market regulator Ofgem is also set to complete a regulatory impact assessment on the introduction of a single tariff for all entry and exit points into the country's gas grid by the first quarter of 2026, with the aim of making the UK a more attractive hub for gas transiting to Europe — particularly LNG supplies. If approved, the new tariff system could be implemented before the beginning of the 2026-27 gas year. On the demand side, the government's £15bn ($20bn) warm homes plan is poised to add to the downward trend in gas demand by supporting households in implementing energy-efficiency measures. These include the extension of the boiler upgrade scheme (BUS) until the financial year 2029-30, and further funding for home insulation and solar panel installations, among other measures. The publication of the plan has been delayed to January from an expected release in December, Desnz told Argus on 15 December. Regulatory changes affecting the power grid will also have an important impact on gas demand. UK power grid operator Neso earlier this month confirmed a major reordering of the country's electricity grid connection queue to speed up renewable energy projects and connection from demand sites. A quicker and easier access to the grid could incentivise operators of data centres, which are poised to be one of the most important drivers of electricity demand in the coming years, to connect to the electricity grid instead of building on-site gas-fired plants . But even if that was the case, a large part of that electricity could still come from gas even if renewables and storage are deployed in line with expectations. In July, energy minister Ed Miliband asked Neso in a letter to keep 40.1GW of power generation in the country's capacity market by 2029-30 to assure energy security on days of limited renewable generation, a decision that clearly favours investment in flexible gas-fired generation. The Labour government has not disclosed specific targets on new gas-fired generation capacity. The Conservative government, in charge until last year, had said that the country needed to build a minimum of 5GW of new gas-fired capacity to partly offset the 15GW gas-fired capacity closures in the coming years — a third of the total fleet of 34.5GW in operation. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia coal, Fe prices to fall; LNG up: Treasury

25/12/17

Australia coal, Fe prices to fall; LNG up: Treasury

Sydney, 17 December (Argus) — Australian iron ore, coking coal, and thermal coal prices are expected to decline by the end of December 2026, while LNG prices may rise from current levels, according to Treasury forecasts released on 17 December. Australian commodity prices are expected to return to long-run fundamental levels, Treasury said in its Mid-Year Fiscal and Economic Outlook for the 2025-26 financial year ending 30 June. Thermal Coal Australia's thermal coal prices have been supported by ex-China demand since Treasury released its July 2025-June 2026 budget on 25 March, Treasury said. But it does not expect this trend to continue. Treasury forecasts Australian thermal coal spot prices will fall to $70/t on a fob basis by the end of December 2026, down from current levels. Argus ' Australian NAR 6,000 kcal/kg fob Newcastle price was last assessed at $108.46/t on 16 December, up from $95.62/t on 25 March. Australian thermal coal exports to China fell 11pc on the year in January-October ( see table ), while shipments to Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and Malaysia rose, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show. Steelmaking Inputs Chinese economic policy support has lifted iron ore and metallurgical coal prices since March, Treasury said. But it expects Australian iron ore and coking coal spot prices to fall to $60/t and $140/t fob, respectively, by the end of 2026. Argus ' metallurgical coal premium hard low-volatile fob Australia price was last assessed at $215.10/t on 16 December, while its iron ore fines 61pc Fe (ICX) fob Australia netback price was last assessed at $90.55/t. Treasury also expects mining investment to remain unchanged over the next two years, largely because of the iron ore and coking coal sectors. Iron ore producers may invest in projects to maintain production, but coking coal producers are expected to run down their capital stock, Treasury said. Producers are looking to sell or finance around six Queensland coking coal mines, a market participant told Argus on 2 December. Petroleum LNG prices have declined since March because of China's shift toward non-Australian gas, Treasury said. Australian LNG spot prices are expected to reach $10/mm Btu by the end of December 2026, according to Treasury forecasts. Argus ' Gladstone fob price — an LNG netback indicator — was last assessed at $9.01/mm Btu on 16 December, down from $12.90/mm Btu on 25 March. China plans to prioritise pipeline and domestic gas over LNG imports in the coming years, PetroChina International's global head of LNG Yaoyu Zhang said on 4 December. Treasury also expects global oil prices to hover around $66/bl over the next four years, down from its March estimate of $81/bl. Australia's government will raise less revenue from its petroleum resource rent tax than previously expected because of the downgrade, the agency added. The tax is forecast to generate A$1.5bn in 2025-26, down from the earlier estimate of A$1.95bn. By Avinash Govind Treasury Commodity Forecasts (Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook) $ Commodity Argus Price (most recent)* Forecasted Price* Change (%) Coking Coal 215.1/t 140/t -35.0 Thermal Coal 95.62/t 70/t -26.8 Iron Ore 90.55/t 60/t -33.7 LNG 9.01/mm Btu 10/mm Btu 11.0 * Argus' Australian NAR 6,000 kcal/kg fob Newcastle; metallurgical coal premium hard low-volatile fob Australia; Argus' Gladstone fob; Iron ore fines 61pc Fe (ICX) fob Australia netback * fob Australia basis, at end of December 2026 Argus, Commonwealth of Australia Australian thermal coal exports mn t Market Jan - Oct '25 Jan - Oct '24 YTD Change (%) China 53 60 -11 India 2.9 3.4 -16 Japan 59 59 0.5 South Korea 11 9.7 12 Vietnam 13 9.6 37 Malaysia 5.9 5.4 11 Australian Bureau of Statistics Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more