HSFO defies the green tide

: Biofuels, Fertilizers, Natural gas, Oil products
25/05/08

High-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO), once seen as a fading relic, is proving remarkably resilient (see table) despite the maritime sector's push toward decarbonization.

The fuel remains economically attractive thanks to persistent scrubber investments and regulatory frameworks that fail to fully penalize its use.

Under the EU notation, HSFO and very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) are assigned the same calorific and greenhouse gas emission values. This equivalence means that ships fitted with scrubbers — systems that strip out sulphur oxides — face no additional penalties for choosing HSFO over VLSFO. As a result, greenhouse gas fees under FuelEU Maritime and the EU emissions trading system (ETS) offer no disincentive for scrubber users to stick with cheaper HSFO.

In March 2025, the VLSFO-HSFO spread in Singapore narrowed to just $44/t, the lowest since the IMO 2020 sulphur cap took effect. At that level, a scrubber on a capesize bulker pays for itself in under two years. When the spread averaged $122/t in 2024, the payback period was about eight months.

Even in regulated markets like Europe, economics favor HSFO. Under the EU ETS, ships operating in, out of or between EU ports must pay for 70pc of their CO2 emissions in 2025. In Rotterdam, bunker prices including ETS surcharges still favor HSFO: $575/t for HSFO, $605/t for VLSFO, and $783/t for a B30 Used cooking oil methyl ester blend.

While biofuels, methanol and LNG are inching forward in market share, they remain cost-prohibitive. In the meantime, HSFO, with scrubber backing, continues to punch above its environmental weight.

By Stefka Wechsler

Selected ports marine fuel demand				t
	% Chg 1Q 25-1Q 24	1Q 2025 less 1Q 2024	1Q 2025	1Q 2024

Singapore
HSFO	1.0%	33,160.0	4,898,372.0	4,865,212.0
VLSFO/ULSFO	-13.0%	-1,005,951.0	6,829,667.0	7,835,618.0
MGO/MDO	-5.0%	-49,012.0	907,874.0	956,886.0
biofuel blends	187.0%	237,552.0	364,418.0	126,866.0
LNG	34.0%	25,935.0	101,856.0	75,921.0
Rotterdam
HSFO	1.0%	11,169.0	829,197.0	818,028.0
VLSFO/ULSFO	14.0%	118,670.0	976,249.0	857,579.0
MGO/MDO	3.0%	9,662.0	393,071.0	383,409.0
biofuel blends	-60.0%	-158,597.0	104,037.0	262,634.0
LNG	7.0%	7.0	104.0	97.0
Panama
HSFO	22.0%	65,266.0	362,388.0	297,122.0
VLSFO/ULSFO	25.0%	177,296.0	878,776.0	701,480.0
MGO/MDO	22.0%	27,097.0	150,980.0	123,883.0
— Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore, Rotterdam Port Authority and Panama Canal Authority

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

25/06/12

Ireland keeps double counting for Pome biofuels

London, 12 June (Argus) — The Irish transport ministry has signed an amended regulation that will continue to allow for biofuels made from palm oil mill effluent (Pome) oil to be counted twice towards domestic mandates, but prevent the granting of additional renewable fuel certificates to biofuels made from the waste feedstock from 1 July. Irish biofuels legislation allows for two renewable fuel certificates to be generated per megajoule for fuels made from feedstocks listed in Annex IX of the EU's Renewable Energy Directive (RED), which includes Pome oil. This is known as double counting. A second piece of legislation, the National Oil Reserves Agency Act 2007 (Additional Certificates for Renewable Transport Fuel) Regulations, allows for extra certificates to be generated for fuels from Annex IX feedstocks on top of double counting. The amended regulation will prevent the additional generation of 0.5 certificates per megajoule of hydrotreated vegetable oil, 0.4 certificates per megajoule of fuel supplied into the aviation sector and 0.4 certificates for megajoule of fuel supplied into the marine sector, if produced from Pome oil. Biofuels produced from other feedstocks listed in Annex IX will still be eligible for this. The National Oil Reserves Agency, which administers Ireland's biofuels mandate, reviewed Pome oil consumption data last year and recommended excluding Pome oil-based fuels from double counting, along with an exclusion from additional certificate generation. It also suggested implementing a Pome oil cap for the mandate, but acknowledged administrative barriers. Ireland was one of four member states that last year approached the European Commission to ask for its support in the analysis of Pome oil-based biofuel usage. The commission responded by saying it would be launching a working group with member states on sustainability and fraud in the lead-up to states transposing the recast RED III. By Simone Burgin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU ethanol market monitors possible reclassification

25/06/12

EU ethanol market monitors possible reclassification

London, 12 June (Argus) — The European ethanol market awaits the final verdict of the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA), the registry of classification and labelling (CLH), on the potential classification of ethanol as a carcinogenic, mutagenic, or toxic for reproduction (CMR) substance. The decision is expected in the second half of this year. The classification would ban the use of ethanol in certain cosmetic applications. Some market participants said that it could mean that additional protective measures would be required when handling fuel grade ethanol, such as operators having to wear protective clothing and monitoring their exposure more closely. European renewable ethanol association ePure said that the decision "would have many undesirable and disproportionate effects in multiple sectors and industries". Greek authorities submitted a proposal to the ECHA asking it to classify ethanol as a CMR substance back in July 2020. This classification would suggest potential toxicity based on limited evidence from human or animal studies. The dossier submitted by the Greek authorities argues that ethanol causes developmental harm, in regard to prenatal alcohol exposure, and potential effects via breastmilk. Supporting data all derives from hazards caused by oral consumption. Industrial-grade ethanol, often referred to as denatured alcohol, serves as a key ingredient in a wide range of products, including cosmetics, disinfectants, pharmaceuticals and paints. Consumption of the grade increased during the Covid-19 pandemic, when many manufactures turned to ethanol to tackle disinfectant supply shortages. In contrast, fuel-grade ethanol, typically referred to as undenatured ethanol, must meet EN (European Standard) specifications and adhere to sustainability standards set by certification bodies like the International Sustainability and Carbon Certification (ISCC) before being blended into gasoline. According to ePURE data, 6.4bn l of ethanol was produced in Europe in 2023, with 5.5bn l or just under 86pc being for fuel, while only 7.6pc was for industrial use and 6.5pc for beverages. In an open letter sent to the European Commission on 8 November 2024, the International Association for Soaps, Detergents and Maintenance Products (AISE) requested for an "urgent intervention" on this potential reclassification. In the letter they said that this would impact both the general public and professional users, like in hospitals, where they said there is "no suitable alternative" to ethanol-based sanitisers. Some have suggested that ethanol producers impacted by the ban might turn to the fuel ethanol market. But, the increased supply this re-classification could bring to the fuel market, depends on whether producers have or could obtain ISCC or equivalent accreditation. By Toby Shay and Evelina Lungu Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Spanish May industrial gas use hits multi-year low

25/06/12

Spanish May industrial gas use hits multi-year low

London, 12 June (Argus) — Spanish industrial gas burn last month was higher than in April but the lowest for May in at least nine years, the latest data from grid operator Enagas show. Industrial gas demand of 449 GWh/d in May edged up from 441 GWh/d in April, but remained lower than the 465 GWh/d a year earlier and was the weakest for May since at least 2016, when Enagas' public dataset begins. Before last month, the lowest industrial demand for May over the past nine years occurred in 2024, when Mibgas day-ahead reference prices averaged €32/MWh. Spanish industries last month also consumed less gas than in May 2022, when day-ahead reference prices on the Mibgas exchange averaged €77/MWh, more than double the Argus -assessed €34/MWh day-ahead average last month. Spanish industrial demand has remained lower on the year every month so far in 2025, largely because of limited gas use by refineries. Spanish refiners last month consumed 84 GWh/d, down from 100 GWh/d in May 2024, but the sector still accounted for the largest single portion of industrial demand. There was also a significant decline in demand from the food sector, which decreased by 13pc on the year, combined heat and power (CHP) plants (11pc drop) and the paper sector, which fell by 7pc on the year. Gas burn by CHPs last month held lower on the year, despite overall demand for Spanish power generation holding more or less stable and Spanish renewables and nuclear plants contributing less to the mix. That change may at least partly relate to stronger competition from combined-cycle gas turbines, which generated 4.4GW last month, 63pc higher than a year earlier. The metal, chemical and construction sectors all used marginally more gas on the year, but that change only partially offset the decline in other sectors ( see table ). By Iris Petrillo Spanish gas demand by sector GWh/d May-25 May-24 Refineries 84 98 Chemical and pharma 61 59 Construction 61 60 CHPs 51 58 Food 44 50 Other 36 39 Metals 36 35 Paper 31 33 Services 29 29 Textiles 5 5 Enagas Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EPA readies new biofuel blend mandate proposal

25/06/12

EPA readies new biofuel blend mandate proposal

New York, 12 June (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration is close to releasing two regulations informing oil refiners how much biofuel they must blend into the conventional fuel supply. The two rules — proposed biofuel blend mandates for at least 2026 and most likely for 2027 as well as a separate final rule cutting cellulosic fuel mandates for last year — exited White House review on Wednesday, the last step before major regulations can be released. Previously scheduled meetings as part of the process appear to have been cancelled, another signal that the rules' release is imminent. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has said it wants to get the frequently delayed Renewable Fuel Standard program back on its statutory timeline, which would require volumes for 2027 to be finalized before November this year. Any proposal will have to go through the typical public comment process and could be changed. A coalition of biofuel-producing groups and feedstock suppliers, including the American Petroleum Institute, has pushed EPA to set a biomass-based diesel mandate of 5.25bn USG for 2026, hoping that a record-high target will support biorefineries that have struggled this year. Many plants have idled or run less recently, as uncertainty about future blend mandates, the halting rollout of a new clean fuel tax credit, and tariffs that up feedstock costs all hurt margins. EPA administrator Lee Zeldin also told a House subcommittee last month the agency wanted "to get caught up as quickly as we can" on a backlog of small refiner requests for program exemptions. Courts took issue with EPA's exemption policy during Trump's first term and again during President Joe Biden's tenure, leaving officials now with dozens of waiver requests covering multiple compliance years still pending. It is unclear whether the rule will provide clarity on EPA's plans for program waivers — including whether the agency will up obligations on other parties to make up for exempt small refiners — but biofuel groups have worried that widespread exemptions would curb demand for their products. The price of Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits used for program compliance have been volatile this year on rumors about these exemptions, which EPA has called market manipulation. RIN trading picked up and prices rose on the news as Thursday's session began. Bids and offers for 2025 ethanol D6 RINs, the most prevalent type currently trading, began the day at 96¢/RIN and 98¢/RIN, respectively. Deals were struck shortly after at 98¢/RIN and 99¢/RIN, with seller interest at one point reaching 100¢/RIN — well above a 95.5¢/RIN settle on Wednesday. Biomass-based diesel D4 RINs with concurrent vintage followed the same path with sellers holding ground as high as 107¢/RIN. By Cole Martin and Matthew Cope Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

UK ETS emissions fell by 11pc on the year in 2024

25/06/12

UK ETS emissions fell by 11pc on the year in 2024

Seville, 12 June (Argus) — Emissions in sectors covered by the UK emissions trading scheme (ETS) declined by 11.5pc year on year in 2024, data published by the UK ETS authority show, slowing their decline slightly from the previous year. Stationary installations covered by the UK ETS emitted 76.7mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e), down by 12.9pc from 2023, the data show. But this was offset somewhat by a 2pc increase in aviation emissions to 8.99mn t CO2e. Overall UK ETS emissions now have declined for two consecutive years, having fallen by 12.5pc in 2023. Emissions under the scheme rose by 2.5pc in 2022, as a strong rebound in aviation activity following earlier Covid-19 restrictions outweighed declining stationary emissions. Stationary emissions have decreased in every year since the scheme launched in 2021. The majority of the decline in stationary emissions under the UK ETS last year took place in the power sector, where emissions dropped by 18.2pc to 30.6mn t CO2e. The country's last coal-fired plant, Ratcliffe-on-Soar, closed in September last year. And the share of gas-fired output in the generation mix dipped as wind, solar and biomass production and electricity imports edged higher. Industrial emissions also declined, by 8.9pc to 46.1mn t CO2e. The iron and steel sector posted the largest relative drop of 30pc to 6.54mn t CO2e. Emissions from crude extraction fell by 6.4pc to 6.0mn t CO2e, while emissions from gas extraction, manufacture and distribution activities decreased by 8.9pc to 5.3mn t CO2e. The chemicals sector emitted 2.28mn t CO2e, down by 5.2pc on the year. A total of 43 installations were marked as having surrendered fewer carbon allowances than their cumulative emissions since the launch of the UK ETS, as of 1 May. A further two installations failed to report their emissions by the deadline. "Appropriate enforcement action" will be taken against operators that fail to surrender the required allowances, the UK ETS authority said. Overall greenhouse gas emissions across the UK economy dropped by a smaller 4pc last year, data published by the government in March show. This decline also was driven principally by lower gas and coal use in the power and industry sectors, with smaller declines in transport and agriculture, not covered by the UK ETS, and an increase in buildings emissions, also out of the scheme's scope. Emissions under the EU ETS in 2024 dipped by a projected 4.5pc from a year earlier, based on preliminary data published by the European Commission in April. The UK and EU last month announced that they will "work towards" linking the two systems together. By Victoria Hatherick UK ETS emissions mn t CO2e Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more