High-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO), once seen as a fading relic, is proving remarkably resilient (see table) despite the maritime sector's push toward decarbonization.
The fuel remains economically attractive thanks to persistent scrubber investments and regulatory frameworks that fail to fully penalize its use.
Under the EU notation, HSFO and very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) are assigned the same calorific and greenhouse gas emission values. This equivalence means that ships fitted with scrubbers — systems that strip out sulphur oxides — face no additional penalties for choosing HSFO over VLSFO. As a result, greenhouse gas fees under FuelEU Maritime and the EU emissions trading system (ETS) offer no disincentive for scrubber users to stick with cheaper HSFO.
In March 2025, the VLSFO-HSFO spread in Singapore narrowed to just $44/t, the lowest since the IMO 2020 sulphur cap took effect. At that level, a scrubber on a capesize bulker pays for itself in under two years. When the spread averaged $122/t in 2024, the payback period was about eight months.
Even in regulated markets like Europe, economics favor HSFO. Under the EU ETS, ships operating in, out of or between EU ports must pay for 70pc of their CO2 emissions in 2025. In Rotterdam, bunker prices including ETS surcharges still favor HSFO: $575/t for HSFO, $605/t for VLSFO, and $783/t for a B30 Used cooking oil methyl ester blend.
While biofuels, methanol and LNG are inching forward in market share, they remain cost-prohibitive. In the meantime, HSFO, with scrubber backing, continues to punch above its environmental weight.
| Selected ports marine fuel demand | t | |||
| % Chg 1Q 25-1Q 24 | 1Q 2025 less 1Q 2024 | 1Q 2025 | 1Q 2024 | |
| Singapore | ||||
| HSFO | 1.0% | 33,160.0 | 4,898,372.0 | 4,865,212.0 |
| VLSFO/ULSFO | -13.0% | -1,005,951.0 | 6,829,667.0 | 7,835,618.0 |
| MGO/MDO | -5.0% | -49,012.0 | 907,874.0 | 956,886.0 |
| biofuel blends | 187.0% | 237,552.0 | 364,418.0 | 126,866.0 |
| LNG | 34.0% | 25,935.0 | 101,856.0 | 75,921.0 |
| Rotterdam | ||||
| HSFO | 1.0% | 11,169.0 | 829,197.0 | 818,028.0 |
| VLSFO/ULSFO | 14.0% | 118,670.0 | 976,249.0 | 857,579.0 |
| MGO/MDO | 3.0% | 9,662.0 | 393,071.0 | 383,409.0 |
| biofuel blends | -60.0% | -158,597.0 | 104,037.0 | 262,634.0 |
| LNG | 7.0% | 7.0 | 104.0 | 97.0 |
| Panama | ||||
| HSFO | 22.0% | 65,266.0 | 362,388.0 | 297,122.0 |
| VLSFO/ULSFO | 25.0% | 177,296.0 | 878,776.0 | 701,480.0 |
| MGO/MDO | 22.0% | 27,097.0 | 150,980.0 | 123,883.0 |
| — Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore, Rotterdam Port Authority and Panama Canal Authority | ||||
