Australian firms flag coal phase-out timeline concerns

: Electricity, Natural gas
25/05/09

Energy utilities raised concerns that Australia's coal-fired power generation phase-out might be running on an unrealistic timeline,according to submissions to the National Electricity Market (NEM) review consultation process.

Utilities AGL Energy, Alinta Energy, Delta Energy, Energy Australia, Origin Energy and Stanwell — which operate 10 of the 20 coal-fired power plants in Australia (see table) — submitted separate recommendations to the consultation launched late last year looking at wholesale market settings. This came after the conclusion of the Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) tenders in 2027, and as Australia transitions to more renewables from its aging coal-fired plants.

The Australian Energy Market Operator (Aemo) forecast the country will exit all coal-fired generation by 2038 in its Integrated System Plan (ISP) published in 2024. But Delta Energy predicts that this timeline will not be met, and views ISP's priority as emissions reduction targets rather than a realistic timeline.

Insufficient capacity to replace the coal plants was a common issue flagged by these companies, with AGL saying this is partly because of uncertainty in the market leading to less investments. The utility plans to close all its coal plants by the end of June 2035.

AGL was Australia's largest emitter of greenhouse gas emissions in the 2024 financial year, according to the Clean Energy Regulator (CER), followed by Stanwell, Energy Australia and Origin Energy.

The transition could be supported using flexible dispatchable resources, according to Origin Energy. The coal phase-out means more variable renewable energy (VRE) is required, but VRE output will not necessarily match demand.

"The NEM review must also consider the actions to facilitate the planned retirement of coal-fired power stations from the energy system, which will still be occurring in the NEM beyond the CIS," Stanwell warned. "The urgency of developing solutions cannot be overstated, as any indecision now would result in increased government intervention later, and a disorderly and costly NEM beyond the CIS."

Gas-fired generation

A few firms view gas-powered generation as critical in the transition away from thermal coal and in maintaining system reliability. It will provide back-up in times of renewable droughts, said Stanwell and AGL, and should be noted in discussions of the forward strategy.

But Alinta Energy is cautious of the costs of gas-fired power plants, believing them to be the least costly for customers but not economically viable because of their exposure to global gas market prices. Alinta's suggestion is to reduce the market's dependence on high-cost facilities including gas-fired facilities.

Mixed views on capacity market

Some companies mentioned a capacity mechanism as a solution. Coal-fired facilities should be allowed to continue until they can be replaced, said Alinta Energy, and gas power plants are necessary. Energy Australia and Delta are calling for the NEM to stay technologically neutral in this process, keeping thermal coal exits in mind. A capacity market needs to be sustainable without government subsidies, Alinta Energy said, and exit strategies for government intervention should be clear from the beginning.

But capacity markets can lead to higher costs for customers, according to AGL, because of potential over-procured capacity.

"If a capacity mechanism was implemented, it would be important to consider the impact of any capacity incentive on the operation of the NEM and the appropriate level of the market price settings — a balance that may be difficult to strike," AGL noted.

The expert independent panel leading the review will continue carrying out consultation, and is expected to make final recommendations to energy and climate ministers in late 2025.

By Susannah Cornford

Australia coal-fired power plant closures in NEM
Plant	Capacity (MW)	Owner	Closure date	State	Emissions CER 2023/24 year Scope 1 & 2 of CO2e

Eraring	2,880.0	Origin	2027	NSW	13,550,220.0
Yallourn	1,480.0	Energy australia	2029	Vic	10,502,080.0
Callide B	700.0	CS Energy	2029	Qld	4,028,161.0
Total by 2030	5,060.0				28,080,461.0
Coal plant closures in NEM after 2030
Bayswater	2,640.0	AGL	2030-33	NSW	13,712,719.0
Vales Point	1,320.0	Delta	2033	NSW	7,111,963.0
Stanwell	1,460.0	stanwell	2035	Qld	6,982,204.0
Tarong	1,843.0	Stanwell	2035	Qld	10,936,021.0
Kogan	740.0	CS Energy	2035	Qld	4,522,472.0
Callide C	825.0	CS Energy	2035	Qld	688,038.0
Loy Yang A	2,210.0	AGL	2035	Vic	18,723,707.0
Subtotal	11,038.0				62,677,124.0
Total by 2030	16,098.0				90,757,585.0
					— CER

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25/06/20

Pakistan loses EU GSP+ ethanol status

London, 20 June (Argus) — The European Commission today suspended Pakistan's Generalised Scheme of Preferences Plus (GSP+) status for imports of ethanol. The removal is effective from today, 20 June. A request was lodged in May last year by France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Hungary and Poland, who sought to activate Article 30 of the GSP Regulation, arguing that ethanol coming from Pakistan since 2022 has "caused a serious disturbance to the Union ethanol market". Under Article 30, the commission can "adopt an implementing act in order to suspend the preferential arrangement in respect of the products concerned". Pakistan was granted GSP+ status in 2014, and this expired at the end of 2023. The status was temporarily extended until 2027. The GSP+ grants reduced-tariff or tariff-free access to the EU for vulnerable low- and lower- to middle-income countries that, according to the EU, "implement 27 international conventions related to human rights, labour rights, protection of the environment and good governance". It fully removes custom duties on two-thirds of the bloc's tariff lines in Pakistan's case, including ethanol. Pakistan is a major supplier of industrial-grade ethanol to Europe, but it does not export fuel-grade ethanol. According to market participants, this is because production facilities in the country lack sustainability certifications such as the International Sustainability and Carbon Certification (ISCC) that are required for biofuels to qualify under the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED) targets. Fuel-grade ethanol was not included in the bloc's measures. Several Pakistani market participants were hopeful the GSP+ status will remain in place, which has continued to support ethanol exports from the country to the EU ( see table ). But uncertainty has weighed on demand from Europe recently, suppliers said. A participant told Argus that Pakistani sellers may look to offer more into Africa to soften the drop in demand. Some European suppliers anticipated this outcome, and have already stopped importing from Pakistan. European renewable ethanol association ePure expressed concern about the decision to exclude fuel ethanol from the scope of the measures, noting this could open the door to unintended loopholes and weaken the overall effect of the safeguard efforts. By Evelina Lungu and Deborah Sun European ethanol imports from Pakistan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop 28 outcome must be implemented in full: Cop 30 head

25/06/20

Cop 28 outcome must be implemented in full: Cop 30 head

London, 20 June (Argus) — The incoming UN Cop 30 summit president Andre Correa do Lago has set out his objectives for the conference in November, placing as a key priority the Cop 28 outcome of trebling renewables capacity and transitioning away from fossil fuels. Correa do Lago today said his plan is to drive "collective action" to tackle climate change, placing a strong emphasis on the global stocktake, the first of which was concluded at Cop 28 in 2023 . That outcome saw almost 200 countries commit to "transition away" from fossil fuels, as well as treble renewables capacity by 2030. The global stocktake, a five-yearly process, sets out progress made towards Paris climate agreement goals. Today's "Action Agenda must drive momentum towards the full implementation of the GST [global stocktake]", Correa do Lago said. The incoming Cop president is focusing on implementing agreements made at previous Cops, and ensuring that countries and all other stakeholders — such as sub-nationals and the private sector — work together to put the decisions into action. Correa do Lago's letter today repeated language from the Cop 28 outcome, and noted his other main themes for Cop 30, which will take place in Belem, in Brazil's Para state, on 10-21 November. As well as shifting energy, industry and transport from fossil fuel-powered to lower- or zero-carbon alternatives, he listed forests, oceans and biodiversity and agriculture and food as key topics. Further topics involved building resilience for cities, infrastructure and water and human and social development. A final priority was enablers and accelerators across the board, including for finance and technology. Correa do Lago said in May that Cop 30 should be a "pivot point" to action on climate change, and "a new era of putting into practice" what has been agreed at previous Cop summits. He has noted a difficult geopolitical situation , which could make talks more challenging. Brazil's Cop 30 presidency is also focused on climate finance at UN climate talks, currently underway in Bonn, Germany. These 'halfway point' discussions serve to cover substantial technical groundwork ahead of political talks at Cop summits each November. Brazil yesterday at Bonn presented a draft of a roadmap to scale up climate finance — from all sources — to $1.3 trillion/year by 2035. The roadmap will not be officially negotiated, although it was a key outcome from Cop 29 in 2024 and is likely to be finalised just ahead of Cop 30 this year. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

SEE gas operators propose changes to Route 1 product

25/06/19

SEE gas operators propose changes to Route 1 product

London, 19 June (Argus) — Gas transmission system operators (TSOs) in southeast Europe have proposed several changes to the "Route 1" integrated capacity product from Greece to Ukraine, including allowing nominations from the Greek virtual trading point (VTP) to count toward exports, subject to approval by the regulator. Route 1, a product offered only between June and October in order to help Ukraine reach its goal of importing roughly 5bn m³ of gas in preparation for the next heating season, bundles together capacity at the Kulata/Sidirokastro, Negru Voda/Kardam, Isaccea/Orlovka, Kaushany and Grebenyky interconnection points. The first monthly auction for Route 1 was held on 29 May , but no capacity sold at the auction as traders pointed toward serious questions over the product's compliance with EU law, a restrictive rule set and insufficient economic incentive to book. During a meeting with regional shippers today, the route's TSOs proposed several changes to the product. The most prominent change would allow nominations from the Greek VTP to count towards exports under the Route 1 product, which would increase the pool of eligible users if approved by the Greek regulatory authority. Under previous rules, Route 1 users would have had to cumulatively nominate at the Greek entry points of Agia Triada, Nea Mesimvria, Amfitriti and Kipi at least as much as they notify Greek TSO Desfa they intend to deliver to Ukraine, but this list explicitly did not include the Greek VTP or Kulata/Sidirokastro. These rules effectively heavily favoured users with LNG capacity at Revithoussa. The operators also clarified that Route 1 users will not be required to obtain a licence from Moldovan regulator Anre and conclude a balancing contract, as the gas will only be transmitted from one Moldovan interconnection to another. It is also not required to sign a balancing contract with Romanian TSO Transgaz, although it is necessary with Bulgartransgaz. The operators also clarified that interested parties do not need to have licences to trade in all five countries along the route, simply to be registered system users with access to transmission services for each of the TSOs. Although several market participants told Argus that even this process can take a month or longer. Other details of the product, such as the 25pc discount at all points except Isaccea entry, Kaushany exit and Grebenyky entry, where a 46pc discount is already applied by the Ukrainian TSO, remain in place. The operators do not appear to have addressed concerns raised by Energy Traders Europe that the offering of discounts on point-to-point capacity on a monthly basis is not in line with the EU's network code on capacity allocation (NC CAM). Traders today still expressed reservations about booking the Route 1 product, noting that the Greek discount to other competing routes into Ukraine is probably not large enough to justify booking given the cost of the tariffs. Argus assessed the Greek day-ahead price at a €6.70/MWh discount to the Slovak day-ahead market, the other most prominent underutilised route to Ukraine, at the most recent close. But at a cost of around €7/MWh for the Route 1 tariffs and volume fees, compared with a monthly Slovak exit tariff of €1.47/MWh and a volume fee of around €0.35/MWh, Route 1 would only marginally be in the money. Further, the 131 GWh/d booking from the Czech Republic to Slovakia for July , as well as a nearly correspondingly-large Ukrainian entry booking from Slovakia , suggests that traders intend to supply a large volume of gas to Ukraine along the main route competing with Route 1. Additionally, worries about the potential regulatory problems associated with Route 1 have not been addressed, leaving some firms uneasy, although all agreed that the potential inclusion of Greek VTP nominations would have a positive effect on potential interest. The next Route 1 auction will be held on the Regional Booking Platform (RBP) on Monday, with around 30 GWh/d on offer. By Brendan A'Hearn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

French Bugey nuclear cuts likely from 25 June: EdF

25/06/19

French Bugey nuclear cuts likely from 25 June: EdF

London, 19 June (Argus) — High temperatures on the River Rhone are "likely" to drive production cuts from nuclear plants along the river, especially Bugey, according to French utility EdF. The potential cuts will be reviewed on 24 June, and a specific publication will detail the cuts if they are confirmed, EdF said. France is about to see a combination of a heatwave and dry spell, with daily highs in Grenoble forecast to remain mostly above 30°C until the beginning of July. The combination of heat and a lack of rain in the Alps has increased the chance of hotter water and lower flows on the Rhone, which could have a knock-on effect on France's nuclear fleet. Eight of the country's 57 reactors discharge their cooling water directly into the river, and environmental regulations limit the temperature at which they can do this, meaning if the river's flow is low and temperatures high, the units can be forced to reduce output. Flows out of Lake Geneva — where the Rhone leaves Switzerland and enters France — have remained at 239-328 m³/s since 2 June. Earlier in the month this was within the 25th to 50th percentile of historical values, but is now slightly below the 25th percentile, as flows typically increase in June to peak at the end of the month and into July. The low outflows are reflective of low inflows, as the lake's level is regulated by the Seujet dam at the lake's exit to the Rhone, which keeps its level about 1m all year. The lake's level typically falls in the first quarter and rises in the second to a peak in June and July, and the level has been creeping up over June in line with the historical trend. The outflow's average temperature of 20.9°C on Wednesday was between the 75th and 95th percentile for the date. A convention between France and Switzerland guarantees that the flow of the Rhone upstream of Bugey, the first nuclear plant on the river, is to remain above 150 m³/s, with the potential for release of water from the Emosson reservoir in Switzerland to the Arve River to achieve this. In recent days, flows at Bugey — combining outflows from Lake Geneva and tributaries of the Rhone, which have brought more than 100 m³/s — have been well above this minimum. And thermal limits for Bugey are set at a maximum temperature downstream of the plant of 26°C and a maximum temperature difference between upstream and downstream of 5°C. If grid operator RTE determines that the plant is necessary to maintain supply, this maximum limit can increase to 27°C, but with only a 1°C temperature difference allowed. Only two of Bugey's four units discharge their cooling water directly into the Rhone, with the other two using cooling towers, which sharply reduce their thermal impact on the river, and so the extent to which the regulations affect them. If water flows were at their minimum of 150 m³/s, and at a temperature of 21°C upstream of the plant, this stream would have the capacity to carry 3.14GW of waste heat away from the plant before hitting the regulatory limit of 5°C of temperature difference and 26°C maximum temperature downstream. This is less than the roughly 3.8GW of waste heat generated by Bugey 2 and 3 operating at full power, including their thermal power of 5.6GW less their electrical power of 1.8GW. Bugey 4 and 5 contribute a small amount of extra waste heat downstream, as their cooling towers do not completely eliminate waste heat. Both units have had to stop at moments in the past two years because of heat-related constraints. In the last period when Bugey was constrained, in mid-August, flows leaving Lake Geneva were significantly hotter than now, roughly 24-26°C. At that point, output from Bugey 2 was reduced to zero, before a sharp fall in water temperature to roughly 20°C by 18 August allowed constraints to be lifted. But air temperatures in the region are forecast to remain elevated for the next two weeks, which will boost water temperatures over time. Daily highs in Sion, Switzerland, are seen at 3-4°C above the norm through to the beginning of July. Temperatures and flows at reactors further downstream which do not possess cooling towers — 2.6GW Saint Alban and 3.6GW Tricastin — are affected by other flows on tributaries to the Rhone, which cool the river down and increase its volume after passing Bugey. By Rhys Talbot Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Sri Lanka revives plan to build LNG import terminal

25/06/19

Sri Lanka revives plan to build LNG import terminal

Singapore, 19 June (Argus) — Sri Lanka has revived its plan to build the country's first LNG import terminal, power and energy minister Kumara Jayakody told the country's parliament on 17 June. The process to build the terminal is already underway and LNG supply is scheduled to begin in 2028, the minister said. The tender to build the import terminal was issued by state-controlled importer Ceylon Petroleum and state-run utility Ceylon Electricity Board, and the negotiation and project committees have been re-established to facilitate the eventual signing and finalisation of the project, the minister added. Sri Lanka plans to use LNG as a transition fuel despite its higher costs compared with coal, as the country looks to increase its renewables load. Sri Lanka had previously finalised an agreement with US operator New Fortress Energy to develop a new LNG terminal in Sri Lanka in 2021, but there have been no updates on the terminal since then. It is unclear if the current plan to build an LNG import terminal is linked to this floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) agreement. By Joey Chan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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