UK Steel is developing a proposal for the department of business and trade in response to European mill lobby Eurofer requesting a 50pc cut in import quotas from January 2026.
Eurofer has also asked for a 50pc tariff from January, suggesting 25pc is not sufficiently high to deter some imports.
Traders and buyers in the UK are starting to wake up to the threat of a new stricter mechanism as early as January 2026, despite the current mechanism not lapsing until June next year.
Some sources think UK Steel will seek a cut in volumes and increase in tariffs in line with Eurofer's request to the European Commission. In recent quota reviews, UK Steel's requests have largely been in line with those made by Eurofer.
Eurofer has also asked for no exceptions for developing countries in the new regime.
There has been a clear uptick in offered HRC volumes into the UK from some exporters that were targeted in recent EU dumping cases. Some exporters that sell slab to Tata Steel, currently a re-roller and the largest importer in the UK, are using the larger volumes to secure cheaper freight rates into the UK for strip products.
UK Steel director, trade and economics policy, Peter Brennan, told Argus the new UK mechanism "must go further than the existing quota system", suggesting imports account for 70pc of UK steel supply, way above their market share in the EU.
The EU does have much more of its own steel and ironmaking capacity, and some grades and sizes are unavailable domestically in the UK.
Separately, it is still not clear what safeguard duties importers of Korean and Vietnamese hot-dip galvanised will have to pay after the government imposed a 15pc cap on the other countries' quota just four business days before the quarterly quota reset. Importers expect to pay at least £90/t ($121/t) on Korean HDG, but the HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) portal currently shows the quota as suspended until today.
HMRC told Argus it was "working on some calculation issues which has prevented the quotas from processing partial claims".
