The Netherlands has delayed its target to install 3-4GW of electrolysis capacity by five years to 2035, and now expects only around 1.2GW to be on line by 2030, the climate and green growth ministry said on 16 September.
The country previously set a 3-4GW target for 2030 and an "aspirational goal" of 8GW for 2032. But the government has revised its plans in response to "higher costs and lower demand" for renewable hydrogen. "The new goal aligns better with realistically expected demand and infrastructure," the ministry said.
Based on the results of a recent subsidy tender and demand-side measures targeting renewable hydrogen use in industry and transport, the ministry now expects around 1.2GW of electrolysis capacity to be installed by 2030.
It will also pause plans for offshore electrolysis demonstration plants for five years. The government had scrapped a €1.2bn funding programme for a 500MW offshore electrolysis project as part of its Climate Fund budget in April.
The ministry acknowledged that hydrogen demand is developing more slowly than expected, and that domestic renewable hydrogen production is "significantly more expensive" than in regions with cheaper renewable electricity.
Government documents suggest that imports of renewable hydrogen and derivatives will remain limited through to 2030, as overall demand will remain much lower than previously anticipated, even with planned mandates for transport and industry. In April, the government opted not to fund new measures to stimulate imports, such as capital cost support for terminals handling ammonia, liquid hydrogen or liquid organic hydrogen carriers (LOHCs).
Dutch government advisory body PBL had already called for a review of domestic electrolysis targets last October, projecting 1.2–1.5GW of installed capacity by 2030.
Other European countries have also revised their targets. France recently cut its 2030 goal to 4.5GW from 6.5GW and lowered its 2035 ambition to 8GW from 10GW. The UK and Germany have also announced plans to update their targets.
In the Netherlands, an upcoming general election on 29 October adds uncertainty to future energy policy, including hydrogen. The current coalition collapsed in early June after the right-wing PVV party withdrew over asylum policy disagreements.
