China’s iron ore prices to remain rangebound in 4Q

: Metals
25/09/29

China's iron ore market is expected to remain rangebound in the fourth quarter of 2025 as steel mills will maintain their production at high levels as long as margins stay positive, supporting demand for iron ore, some participants at the Globalore annual conference last week told Argus.

The Argus ICX® 62pc index tracked an upward trend in the traditional dull season for steel demand in July and August, rising from $93.05/dry metric tonne (dmt) on 1 July to $103.45/dmt by 29 August and hit a record high since late February at $107.15/dmt on 9 September because of high pig iron output.

"There might be a short round of downward correction after the continuous price hikes if the steel demand is worse than expected in the traditional season of peak steel demand in September and October, while the persisting steel margins will lend support to iron ore prices," a Shanghai-based trader said.

"The robust steel exports so far this year may offset the supply pressure in China's domestic market in the fourth quarter, especially that of flat steel, at a time when China's domestic demand for construction steel typically enters a lull," an international trader said.

China's iron ore demand remained robust in January-August, leaving iron ore port stocks declining gradually, a speaker from the Metallurgical Council of China Council for the Promotion of International Trade said at the conference.

Weekly pig iron output rose to 2.42mn t/d in the week to 26 September, market data show. This is higher than the same period a year earlier. Iron ore stocks at China ports showed signs of increasing recently but stayed at lower levels than the corresponding period a year earlier, underpinning iron ore prices.

There is also a strong expectation of a seasonal price hike caused by a flurry of seaborne cargo buying to prepare for winter restocking, a south China-based trader said.

Some participants are worried that major iron ore producers will ramp up shipments in the last quarter of 2025, which may weigh on the upper range of iron ore prices.

The Argus ICX® 62pc index was last assessed at $103.75/dry metric tonne on 26 September.

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25/12/15

EU’s post-safeguard steel measure set for 1 July start

London, 15 December (Argus) — The EU's new post-safeguard steel regulation is scheduled to take effect on 1 July, applying to imports from all third countries, as widely expected, according to the latest draft of the regulation. Only Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein will be exempt under a European Economic Area agreement. The International Trade Committee plans to vote on the draft at the end of January, paving the way for inter-institutional negotiations early next year. Under the framework, importers will be required to provide evidence of the country where steel was melted and poured from 1 October 2026. Within two years of the regulation coming into force, the European Commission will also assess whether this "melt and pour" origin should become the basis for allocating tariff quotas by country. This could lead to a new legislative proposal, potentially reshaping quota distribution. The regulation indicates that quotas may be allocated on a per-country basis, factoring in 2013 import volumes, current and future free trade agreements, and previous allocations such as those applied to UK-origin material. There are also minor adjustments to CN codes under certain product categories, although these appear to have a limited effect. As previously reported , the measure will reintroduce the carry-over of unused quarterly quotas within the same annual period. These volumes will remain available for 20 working days into the following quarter. The first review of the measure will be fast-tracked, with the product scope assessment due 18 months after coming into force. The commission plans to launch consultations by 1 October 2026. A broader evaluation will follow four years after implementation, with subsequent reviews every two years. "The council has also added a new element for consideration when quotas are amended, ensuring attention to potential substantial price increases that could seriously undermine the competitiveness of downstream industries," the European Council said. The draft also said that the commission should assess the necessity of adding steel-intensive goods 18 months after the implementation of this regulation,. There is no mention of any ban on Russian steel in the current draft, as had been proposed in an earlier iteration. By Lora Stoyanova and Colin Richardson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU agrees recycled content for cars

25/12/12

EU agrees recycled content for cars

Brussels, 12 December (Argus) — The European Parliament and EU states have provisionally agreed on the end-of-life vehicles regulation. It will set mandatory targets for recycled content in new vehicles, phasing in 15pc recycled plastics content in 6 years and 25pc in 10 years. Targets for recycled steel and aluminium should also be established two years after the entry into force, after the European Commission undertakes feasibility studies. The regulation further stipulates that 20pc of the recycled plastics content targets will be achieved by plastics from end-of-life vehicles (ELVs) or from used parts and components. The provisional agreement still needs to be formally adopted over the coming months by majorities of EU states and also by the whole parliament. It will extend the regulation's provisions for collection, de-pollution and removal of parts, to all regular heavy-duty vehicles, motorcycles and both small and heavy-duty special purpose vehicles (SPVs). Danish environment minister Magnus Heunicke said the deal closes loopholes and "ensures valuable materials are kept within the EU economy, and curbs the export of polluting, non-roadworthy vehicles to third countries". Three years after entry into force, the regulation will establish a cross-border extended producer responsibility (EPR) scheme. Manufacturers will be financially and organisationally responsible for their vehicles over the entire lifecycle. And the new rules aim to better distinguish used from end-of-life vehicles (ELVs). Five years after entry into force of the regulation, exports of non-roadworthy used vehicles will be banned to in order to retain recycled materials within the EU. "This agreement sets realistic targets and minimises administrative requirements," said German centre-right EPP's Jens Gieseke MEP, parliament's lead negotiator from the environment committee. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia offers support to Rio Tinto’s Tomago Al plant

25/12/12

Australia offers support to Rio Tinto’s Tomago Al plant

Sydney, 12 December (Argus) — The Australian government has offered support to UK-Australian producer Rio Tinto to operate its 600,000 t/yr Tomago aluminium smelter beyond 2028 through a long-term power purchase agreement. Rio Tinto subsidiary Tomago Aluminium will work with Australia's federal and New South Wales (NSW) governments over coming months on an energy solution to support the 600,000 t/yr smelter from 2028, Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese said today. The deal will include a fixed-price power purchase agreement and a commitment from Tomago Aluminium to invest A$1bn ($670mn) into the plant over 10 years, he added. A long-term power purchasing agreement is in the interest of continued long-term investment into the industrial future of Tomago, Australia's minister of industry and innovation Tim Ayres said at a press conference. But Ayres declined to comment further on the specifics of the deal. Rio Tinto in October warned that it may need to close Tomago at the end of 2028 when its current electricity contract ends because of unsustainable energy costs. It had been looking for a new energy solution since 2022, but was not able to find one, it said at the time. The company began talks with NSW state and federal officials over energy cost support for Tomago in June. It has run the smelter normally over 2025. It produced 426,000t of aluminium on a 100pc basis at Tomago in January-September, down by 2.2pc on the year. Australia's support for Tomago comes one day after Tim Ayres defended the government's industrial policy record. Industrial policy is "a rational, pragmatic response to the acute challenges of this moment," he said at a speech to the Sydney Institute on 11 December. The government's support packages for the Whyalla steelworks , global producer Glencore's Queensland copper operations , and global producer Nyrstar's lead and zinc smelters were informed by its obligation to preserve and strengthen economic conditions for Australian workers, he added. The government may also offer support to another Rio Tinto aluminium smelter. Tasmanian state officials have called on the federal government to back the company's 190,000 t/yr Bell Bay aluminium smelter through low-carbon production subsidies in November. By Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU may crank up coal and steel research funds in 2027

25/12/11

EU may crank up coal and steel research funds in 2027

London, 11 December (Argus) — The European Commission could fund a much larger share of research in the coal and steel industry from 2027, according to a staff working document published yesterday. The EU Research Fund for Coal and Steel (RFCS) would fund 70pc of corporate research and 100pc of academic research into green initiatives if the EU moves forth with the proposal. It currently funds 50pc of both corporate and academic research projects, but has struggled to attract participants or meet its spending targets, noting that the "underspending of the project is rooted in a lack of attractiveness of certain aspects of the programme". RFCS spent 57pc of its €43mn ($50mn) budget for large coal projects and only 31pc of its €208mn budget for steel research from 2021 to 2024. Brussels, troubled by a lack of applications, consulted companies and academics this year and found that its spending requirements were the largest barrier. Most were unable or unwilling to fund 50pc of large research projects themselves. RFCS has supported a number of groups hoping to repurpose old coal mines for clean energy. GreenJOBS and Mine-TO-H2, two funding recipients, both plan on making green hydrogen from mine water, while GrEnMine received pilot funding worth €3.5mn to research new ways to store gravitational energy in abandoned mines. Others, such as REM and GI-mine, are working on new methods to capture methane from coal mines. In the steel sector, RFCS has awarded funds to hydrogen power projects such as ProSynteg and HYDREAMS and research groups such as BIOCODE, which hopes to replace up to 10pc of the coal in coke ovens with biomass. The EU dissolved the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) — an agency tasked with making a common European steel market, which eventually led to the creation of the EU — in 2002. The EU used revenues from ECSC assets to launch and fund the RFCS in the same year, and boosted the programme in 2021 by tapping into the assets themselves. By Austin Barnes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

ArcelorMittal to raise ferro-alloys surcharge on coil

25/12/11

ArcelorMittal to raise ferro-alloys surcharge on coil

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China’s iron ore prices to remain rangebound in 4Q

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