The EU's domestic renewable hydrogen production may provide just over half of what is needed to meet mandated consumption, resulting in strong demand for imports, Brussels-based industry body Hydrogen Europe has said.
Hydrogen Europe is projecting EU renewable hydrogen production of 1.43mn t/yr by 2030 in its Clean Hydrogen Monitor 2025 published on 30 September.
The group said implementation of the bloc's revised renewable energy directive (RED III), the ReFuelEU Aviation and FuelEU Maritime frameworks could result in 2.8mn t/yr of demand for renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBOs).
Around 1.5mn t/yr of this would come from the transport sector. This takes into account proposed or finalised national implementations of RED III rules. RED III could translate into around 1.1mn t/yr of RFNBO demand by 2030, much of which could be in refineries.
Industrial use — primarily for ammonia and methanol production — could account for 1.3mn t/yr if the EU's binding target for 42pc of renewable hydrogen consumption are met. But this target is "very uncertain as transposition is less clear and is lacking incentives for companies," Hydrogen Europe said.
EU member states have been hesitant to place direct obligations on companies because of concerns about industrial competitiveness. Ammonia plant closures or exemptions from the targets could result in lower industrial RFNBO demand.
A recital to the RED III text could open the door for some ammonia plants to be exempt and the Netherlands has said it is exempting some 60pc of its ammonia production from planned mandates.
Spain, Portugal, Denmark, Sweden and Finland could have sufficient supply to meet domestic demand derived from the regulations, based on Hydrogen Europe's projections. Other countries are facing large shortfalls, especially Germany, Belgium, Poland and the Netherlands.
The EU may have to rely on substantial non-EU imports to meet consumption targets. But current binding import agreements amount to only around 25,000 t/yr of renewable hydrogen, mostly in the form of ammonia, far short of what would be needed to bridge the projected gap between supply and demand, Hydrogen Europe said.
The EU and member states must accelerate permitting and funding procedures and improve cross-border connectivity to support the targets, the group said.
| Intended end-use sectors for European clean H2* | ||||
| Sector | Electrolytic H2 % | Thermochemical H2 % | Total % | Total t/yr |
| Refining | 22.0 | 43.0 | 27.5 | 630,000 |
| Ammonia | 21.0 | 12.0 | 18.7 | 430,000 |
| Steel | 11.0 | 0.0 | 8.1 | 190,000 |
| Methanol | 10.0 | 2.0 | 7.9 | 180,000 |
| E-Fuels | 11.0 | 3.0 | 8.9 | 210,000 |
| Mobility | 6.0 | 3.0 | 5.2 | 120,000 |
| Other | 19.0 | 37.0 | 23.7 | 550,000 |
| * based on Hydrogen Europe's 2030 supply projections of 1.7mn t/yr electrolytic H2 and 600,000 t/yr thermochemical H2 | ||||
| - Hydrogen Europe | ||||
| Regulatory RFNBO demand | mn t/yr |
| Regulations | Demand |
| RED III for transport | 1.1 |
| ReFuelEU Aviation | 0.3 |
| FuelEU Maritime | 0.1 |
| RED III for industry | 1.3 |
| Total | 2.8 |
| - Hydrogen Europe | |
