A recovery in global titanium demand will depend on whether original equipment manufacturers and lower supply tiers draw down inventories ahead of an expected rise in widebody aircraft and engine build rates, the International Titanium Association's (ITA) conference in Boston heard this week.
Excess procurement following the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict led to a stockbuild that spanned all forms from raw materials to fabricated parts, delegates heard. This caused titanium demand to slow in subsequent years.
A strike at Boeing in September-November 2024 further affected titanium shipments, and the market is now in a period of contraction, Northcoast Research managing director Chris Olin said.
"We think there is about 18 months of inventory in the channel, so it's about three-quarters too many. So we are concerned from a broader perspective that it could be not until the summer of 2026 before demand really starts to pick back up," Olin said.
Other attendees opted against providing a timeline, broadly because there is a lack of visibility on precise volumes in the system. "We are going through an inventory adjustment period, as we are trying to right-size the amount of titanium in the industry, and that could pose nearer-term challenges as well. It's difficult to project exactly how long that lasts or the magnitude of it," the vice-president of purchasing and supply chain for Texas-base titanium producer Timet, Jeff Easto, said.
Airbus and Boeing have adopted slightly different procurement stances for next year. Airbus is set to reduce intake ahead of a sharper rebound in 2027, while Boeing is set to be "flattish" as it tempers its inventory burn over three to five years. Boeing in particular aims to keep its supply chain running hot to mitigate supply disruptions where flaws exist.
"We still have many single points of failure, probably most notably within the engines on the critical castings and forgings that could easily push back that recovery or slow down those deliveries," Easto added.
The broad conservatism on new titanium procurement has staved off concerns about sponge supply. Japanese producer Toho Titanium deputy general manager Takeshi Nakashima toned down prior warnings of a near-term sponge deficit and instead indicated that producers could reduce capacity utilisation in response to lower demand.
Penetration of Chinese sponge into western markets stalled in February as high raw material inventories and a softer demand profile reduced the urgency to qualify Chinese sources. The additional 20pc tariff on China implemented by US president Donald Trump's administration, setting the titanium sponge import duty at 60pc, is a secondary consideration to demand, sources said.
Fundamental demand remains strong
But conference delegates reiterated a robust long-term outlook for titanium demand, noting that the pull from growing widebody build rates and latest-generation engines will provide a boost for the lightweight metal.
The need for aircraft with long-haul capabilities has driven increased orders for twin-aisle jets, with Airbus and Boeing's current combined backlog up by 41pc from the end of 2019 to 2,756 at present — representing more than 10 years of work in hand and a book-to-bill of 3:1, Easto said. This compares with a narrowbody book-to-bill of slightly over 1:1.
Titanium comprises a larger share of widebody jets compared with narrowbody aircraft, with the metal accounting for around 15pc by weight of Airbus' A350 or Boeing's 787 aircraft, compared with less than 10pc for the A320neo and 737 MAX.
Airframers have targeted aggressive growth plans for their widebody production in an effort to clear the order queue. Airbus anticipates tripling A350 output to 12/month in 2028, from approximately 4-5/month at present, based on year-to-date deliveries. Boeing this year lifted its 787 build rates to 7/month from 5/month as it works towards a higher, albeit undisclosed, build rate target.
Engines provide another demand lever for titanium, as consumption of rotor-grade material is projected to increase by 26pc over the next five years, the president of metals group ATI's specialty materials segment, Marty Pike, said.
That growth estimate stems from higher forecast build rates of latest-generation engines such as CFM International's Leap and Pratt & Whitney's PW1000G geared turbofan. Delays in aircraft deliveries that have forced carriers to keep their ageing fleets going for longer add to titanium's demand prospects in engines for aftermarket services in the form of spare parts.
Panellists viewed military applications as the solitary pocket of nearer-term titanium demand growth, pointing to heightened geopolitical tensions and increased defence spending as key drivers. The US Department of Defense's budget request of $962bn for the 2026 fiscal year represents a 12pc increase on the year, while the EU expects 2025 spending to rise by 11pc to €381bn ($447bn) in the same timeframe.
But how much of that funding translates into titanium units will vary by region and application. And absolute volume growth will be limited by defence's smaller market share relative to commercial aerospace.
