IMF upgrades global economic outlook

: Agriculture, Crude oil, Freight, LPG, Metals, Natural gas
25/10/14

The IMF is upgrading its global economic growth forecast for 2025 and 2026, but the economic rationale for the upward revision preceded the most recent episode of US-China trade tensions.

The IMF, in its latest World Economic Outlook released Tuesday, forecasts the global economy will grow by 3.2pc in 2025 and 3.1pc in 2026. That compares with the 3pc growth for 2025 that the IMF was expecting just three months ago. IMF forecasts are used by many economists, including OECD watchdog the IEA, to model oil demand projections.

"The increase in tariffs and its effect has been smaller than expected so far," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said.

The IMF forecast is based on data available as of late September. In recent days, trade tensions flared up again between the US and China.

The possibility of further escalation in trade tensions across the globe is part of the IMF outlook. "The US statutory effective tariff rate remains high, and trade tensions continue to flare up with no guarantee yet on lasting trade agreements," Gourinchas said.

By Haik Gugarats

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

25/11/18

Cop: Climate Club eyes green steel, cement targets

Berlin, 18 November (Argus) — Members of the Germany-initiated Climate Club plan to set production targets for green steel and cement by the next UN climate conference Cop 31, Germany's environment minister Carsten Schneider said at this year's Cop 30 in Belem, Brazil, today. Club members agreed in Belem on a global pledge to grow near-zero and low-emissions steel and cement markets, aiming to increase the global market share of green steel through national policies and international co-operation. This could "potentially" lead to setting a quantitative target for both green steel and cement by Cop 31, Schneider said at a Cop 30 side event in Belem. Schneider called this a "good example of how the Climate Club advances lead markets and strengthens the business case for climate friendly production". Cop 31 is scheduled to take place in late 2026, though a location has not yet been decided. The club today also presented a joint statement and roadmap on international assistance and partnerships for green industry transition. Work under the roadmap will focus on areas such as mobilising investments, driving demand for green products, enhancing transparency through carbon accounting, and developing and scaling aligned or harmonised green standards and definitions. The joint statement has so far been endorsed by Australia, Brazil, Canada, Germany, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Sweden and the UK, as well as by organisations including the African Development Bank, international non-profit programme the Industrial Transition Accelerator, the World Bank-backed Climate Investment Funds (CIF), the Green Climate Fund, and the International Renewable Energy Agency. Germany, the UK and the CIF jointly pledged $1.3bn at Cop 29 last year in climate finance for developing low-carbon production processes and green lead markets in developing and emerging countries. CIF chief executive Tariye Gbadegesin said at the side event today that the first seven partner countries, which include Brazil, Mexico and Turkey, may receive up to $250mn of concessional capital, to "unlock additional funding" which could be ten times higher. Green industrial products could be worth over $1 trillion by 2030, Gbadegesin said. Schneider also announced today that Germany, the UK and platform the Global Industry Hub will inject €30mn into a new "industry decarbonisation hubs accelerator", which will be facilitated by the UN's Industrial Development Organisation (Unido) to advance industrial decarbonisation projects in emerging economies. This will allow targeted funding and make decarbonisation projects "bankable", Schneider said. Schneider pointed out the "unique" nature of the Climate Club, in which developed and developing countries collaborate on finding solutions. Most industrial investments will in future be made in the so-called global south, Schneider said, and the Climate Club over the past year was able to support nine countries through its global matchmaking platform, which is run by Unido. The Climate Club now has 47 member states, with Mexico joining today. Schneider welcomed the addition of another "important country", which he said will "strengthen our joint efforts to achieve green industrialisation". The Climate Club in September launched "voluntary principles" for its member countries to address carbon leakage, the phenomenon whereby emissions sources are relocated rather than cut, stressing the need for greater transparency on emissions reporting, and for accepting that countries will pursue different climate policies. By Chloe Jardine Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EC imposes safeguard measures on FeSi, SiMn, Mn alloys

25/11/18

EC imposes safeguard measures on FeSi, SiMn, Mn alloys

London, 18 November (Argus) — EU member states voted today to impose safeguard measures on ferro-manganese, silico-manganese, ferro-silicon, and ferro-silico-magnesium. The measures are comprised of a tariff-rate quota (TRQ) combined with out-of-quota variable duties. The out-of-quota variable duty is the difference between an established price threshold for each product, and the actual price. Silicon metal and calcium silicon were not included in the product scope of the measures despite the urging of some market participants and ferro-alloys industry association Euroalliages. The chemicals industry was strongly opposed to the inclusion of silicon metal. But Ferroglobe, a major European producer, said today it will continue to advocate for silicon metal to be included in future safeguarding measures. The measures, which take effect tomorrow, will be in place for three years. But the practical details of the measures remain unclear after a highly unusual and last-minute voting process. The vote was scheduled at the beginning of last week for 14 November. On that day the vote was postponed to 17 November, and then yesterday it was postponed once more to today. Multiple market participants are not engaging in trading as they wait to understand the situation. A senior executive at a major steel mill said they are not buying currently because of the announcement. The lack of clarity may impact purchasing decisions. "How can you buy first quarter material if you do not know if you can custom clear it?" a trader said. The measures may reshape the European ferro-alloys trading space, as larger companies will take big tonnages and some smaller companies will come under heavy pressure to maintain operations due to the additional costs they will have to bear. "This will be the end of trading as we know it, and for industry, it will be an added additional cost for no reason because they will not get any improvement on the current situation," the trader said. But the measures will likely increase price volatility, a second trader said, which provides opportunities for smaller trading companies to find profit. Norway and Iceland subject to safeguards Norway and Iceland will be subject to the duties despite being part of the European Economic Area (EEA). Every three months, the commission will consult with Norway and Iceland to review the impact of the safeguard measures, the commission said today. At a briefing in Brussels, the commission noted questions raised in Reykjavik and Oslo. But safeguards are allowed "explicitly" under the agreement between the EU, Norway and Iceland, a senior official said. Under the measures, 75pc of Norway and Iceland's traditional imports will continue to enter duty-free, based on the last three-year period. "Outside the quota, the established minimum threshold price permits additional imports, provided their prices remain at or above this established level, which is also favourable to Norway and Iceland as their prices are generally higher than those of other suppliers," an EC spokesperson said. In a statement today, Norwegian ferro-silicon and silicon producer Elkem, which exports 160,000t of ferro-silicon to the EU annually, said the measure may result in a reduction in sales volumes allocated to the EU market. But Elkem expects the reduction in sales to be compensated by increased EU market prices. A senior executive at an ex-Europe ferro-alloy producer said they will likely need to idle some capacity, as it is difficult to find good sales alternatives outside the EU. Euroalliages is opposed to the inclusion of Norway and Iceland, and urged the EC to "intensify co-operation with its EEA partners", but it welcomed the trimonthly review. But one trader, although opposed to the safeguards overall, celebrated the inclusion of Norway in the measures as essential for supporting higher prices in Europe. "Norway is by far the problem," he said of Norway's large share of EU imports annually. By Maeve Flaherty. Additional reporting by Dafydd ab Iago. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Cop: Presidency tackles key issues in first draft text

25/11/18

Cop: Presidency tackles key issues in first draft text

Belem, 18 November (Argus) — The Brazilian presidency of the UN Cop 30 summit has released a first draft text focused on the controversial issues that were left out of the conference's main agenda. The text represents a significant step forward in negotiations, but multiple options are offered for the main sticking points, suggesting that consensus is still lacking. The issues tackled include climate finance from developed to developing nations, unilateral trade measures, and moving away from fossil fuels. The presidency released a package of texts today, aiming to reach conclusion on several elements tomorrow. It included the first presidency draft text, following discussions on unilateral trade measures, climate finance, responses to countries' climate plans and emissions reporting — the four topics sitting outside the official conference agenda. The text sets out options — with various degrees of strength — on fossil fuels and climate finance, including options for no text at all. A menu of multiple options is normal at this stage of the talks. It is now up to delegations to find compromise, with another round of consultations scheduled today. One paragraph mentions the sharing of "domestic opportunities and success stories on the just, orderly and equitable transition towards low carbon solutions". There is also an option recalling the central paragraph of the global stocktake agreed in Dubai , which called for a move away from fossil fuels. This option suggests "convening" a high-level ministerial round table on different pathways and approaches "with a view to supporting countries to developed just, orderly and equitable transition roadmaps, including to progressively overcome their dependency on fossil fuels and towards halting and reversing deforestation". The option echoes previous calls for a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels, made in the early days of Cop 30. The text also touches on a potential response to the latest round of countries' climate plans, and their alignment with the Paris Agreement. One option calls on countries to accelerate action on the Dubai call, which is reiterated in full in the text. Others mention a "Global Implementation Accelerator" report and a "Belem Roadmap to 1.5[°C]". The latter refers to the Paris Agreement's most ambitious goal of holding the global rise in temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, and appears a softer option than a specific roadmap on moving away from fossil fuels. The texts are a "credible package capable of delivering meaningful Cop 30 outcomes" and represent "a substantial starting point", associate director at energy think-tank E3G Kaysie Brown said. A key sticking point in negotiations overall could be on finance for adaptation — adjusting to climate change where possible — according to director of international climate action at non-profit WRI David Waskow. Developing countries are calling for adaptation finance provided by developed nations to reach $120bn/yr by 2030 — up from a goal of $40bn this year. The draft text's elements on unilateral trade measures are "positive", as they invite more consideration, Waskow said. Developed countries seem opposed to going beyond the climate finance deal struck at Cop 29 , but are mostly supportive of language on shifting away from fossil fuels, global policy lead at civil society organisation Oil Change International Romain Ioualalen said. "Parties eyeing an outcome on fossil fuels will not succeed if they don't send strong signals on finance, adaptation, and the just transition", he said. By Caroline Varin and Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

DNO reshuffles N Sea assets to generate quick returns

25/11/18

DNO reshuffles N Sea assets to generate quick returns

London, 18 November (Argus) — Norway-based upstream producer DNO has agreed to sell its stake in a redevelopment project in the Ekofisk region of the North Sea, while boosting its interest in Norway's Verdande oil and gas discovery and taking a share of a new exploration prospect. The company will divest its 7.6pc stake in the Ekofisk Previously Produced Fields project to Polish refiner Orlen. It will also acquire from Orlen a 20pc interest in a licence that contains the Cassio prospect, and an additional 0.8pc interest in the Verdande discovery. The deals are part of DNO's strategy to focus on short-cycle and less capital-intensive assets. "Our focus is on increasing near-term cash flow with less spend and more barrels more quickly," said DNO executive chairman Bijan Mossavar-Rahmani. Verdande, located in the Norne area of the Norwegian Sea, is scheduled to come online before the end of 2025, while exploration drilling on Cassio in the North Sea is expected to start in late 2026. The Ekofisk redevelopment programme, on the other hand, is not due to start up until 2029. "We have chosen to deploy our share of the significant capital expenditure necessary [for the Ekofisk project] in ways that play to our strengths, namely exploration and rapid-fire development of our existing discoveries," said Mossavar-Rahmani. Cassio sits directly north of a DNO-operated licence containing the Othello discovery, which the company is considering developing as a tie-back to nearby infrastructure. The transactions follow DNO's $450mn deal to buy Norway's Sval Energi earlier this year , which made the North Sea the biggest contributor to the company's production. DNO's production in July-September increased by 50pc from a year earlier, helping to more than double its revenues. Profits, however, remained broadly flat on the year during the same period, owing to extra production costs in the North Sea. By Lauren Hadeed Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU minerals policy should follow US interventionism

25/11/18

EU minerals policy should follow US interventionism

London, 18 November (Argus) — The EU needs to take bolder, more aggressive action to secure critical minerals and could follow the US in pursuing interventionist policy to achieve that goal, delegates heard this week at the Antimony Day in Brussels. The US is deploying aggressive strategies to secure critical minerals, driven by national security concerns and a need to reduce reliance on China. These measures include using the Defense Production Act for funding, establishing price floors to de-risk domestic markets and acquiring stakes in foreign mineral companies. These developments from the US should serve as a wake-up call for EU policy makers, panellists noted. "The EU needs to ensure that truly strategic projects receive financing quickly," European Initiative for Energy Security executive director Alberic Mongrenier said. To achieve this, he urged the EU to repurpose existing public funds. The EU should start negotiating offtake agreements with metals producers, Mongrenier said. The US has already secured long-term deals with companies such as Critical Metals and Ucore Rare Metals for rare earths from Greenland and Canada. Panellists noted that the EU could consider taking equity stakes in companies, mirroring the US approach. The EU could also introduce mandates that require companies to source materials from key strategic projects, both upstream and midstream. This would be particularly significant for defence, but it could also apply to other sectors, including automotive, panellists said. The EU is not ruling this out, delegates told Argus , but it is a delicate topic. "Measures like price floors, mandatory sourcing and offtake agreements are not off the table," European Commission deputy director-general of trade Denis Redonnet said. "That is a complicated decision because it requires intervening in the functioning of free markets." "But we have to think more transactionally, be more tactical, and have a unified strategy," he added. Brussels is developing the EU Resource Plan , an initiative to identify alternative sources for critical minerals. This will address many of these challenges and provide long-term solutions, Redonnet said. The proposal is being finalised and will be discussed by the commission for approval in December. By Cristina Belda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more

IMF upgrades global economic outlook

Related news posts

Cop: Climate Club eyes green steel, cement targets

Cop: Climate Club eyes green steel, cement targets

EC imposes safeguard measures on FeSi, SiMn, Mn alloys

EC imposes safeguard measures on FeSi, SiMn, Mn alloys

Cop: Presidency tackles key issues in first draft text

Cop: Presidency tackles key issues in first draft text

DNO reshuffles N Sea assets to generate quick returns

DNO reshuffles N Sea assets to generate quick returns

EU minerals policy should follow US interventionism

EU minerals policy should follow US interventionism

Business intelligence reports

Argus North American Long-Term Electricity Forward Curves

Argus North American Long-Term Electricity Forward Curves

Argus North American Long-Term Electricity Forward Curves

Argus North American Long-Term Electricity Forward Curves

Argus Line Pipe

Argus Refinery Gate Values: A crucial piece of the crude supply chain puzzle

Argus Specialised Freight