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IMF upgrades global economic outlook

  • Market: Agriculture, Crude oil, Freight, LPG, Metals, Natural gas
  • 14/10/25

The IMF is upgrading its global economic growth forecast for 2025 and 2026, but the economic rationale for the upward revision preceded the most recent episode of US-China trade tensions.

The IMF, in its latest World Economic Outlook released Tuesday, forecasts the global economy will grow by 3.2pc in 2025 and 3.1pc in 2026. That compares with the 3pc growth for 2025 that the IMF was expecting just three months ago. IMF forecasts are used by many economists, including OECD watchdog the IEA, to model oil demand projections.

"The increase in tariffs and its effect has been smaller than expected so far," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said.

The IMF forecast is based on data available as of late September. In recent days, trade tensions flared up again between the US and China.

The possibility of further escalation in trade tensions across the globe is part of the IMF outlook. "The US statutory effective tariff rate remains high, and trade tensions continue to flare up with no guarantee yet on lasting trade agreements," Gourinchas said.


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15/11/25

Trump trims Brazil beef, coffee, fruit tariffs by 10pc

Trump trims Brazil beef, coffee, fruit tariffs by 10pc

Sao Paulo, 14 November (Argus) — US president Donald Trump lifted 10pc tariffs on imports of Brazilian beef, coffee and fruits imposed in April, but 40pc tariffs imposed in August and other quota-tied fees remain in effect. The executive order goes into effect retroactively on "goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption" after 12:01am ET on 13 November. Brazil is a major supplier of these products to the US. Brazil's foreign affairs minister Mauro Vieira and the US secretary of state Marco Rubio have discussed tariffs in recent weeks . Starting in early August, a combination of tariffs equaling 76pc were imposed on US imports of Brazilian beef, cutting those volumes in half . Australia currently fills most US needs for beef, which are subject to a 10pc tariff. While Brazil had a 50pc tariff on in-quota shipments and a 76.4pc tariff on out-of-quota shipments, that has now been reduced by 10 percentage points. US beef imports are forecast at 2.433mn t in 2025, up 16pc from 2024, before easing slightly to 2.245mn t in 2026, according to the US Department of Agriculture. But margins remain tight, squeezed by the volatile tariffs and shifting consumer behavior, importers and exporters said. Tariffs also reduced shipments of Brazilian coffee and orange juice , other key products exported to the US. By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Sigma paused mine in 3Q, will sell Li tailings


14/11/25
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14/11/25

Sigma paused mine in 3Q, will sell Li tailings

Sao Paulo, 14 November (Argus) — Sigma Lithium confirmed it froze production at its flagship project in Brazil between late September and for the entirety of October in order to upgrade mining equipment, which curtailed output in the period. Sigma on 6 October said that it would be enhancing its mining efficiency by switching feedstock providers and upgrading equipment at its Grota do Cirilo mine, in Brazil. The plant began to phase down in September and was shutdown in October, which led to a "significant production decrease," the company's chief executive Ana Cabral said during an earnings call. Third quarter output fell to 44,000 metric tonnes (t) of spodumene, a 27pc decrease over the year and a 36pc sequential drop from the previous quarter. Sigma also failed to export any material in October because of the mining halt. The mine was restarted earlier this week and will ramp up back to normal production levels in the next 2-3 weeks, Cabral said. Sigma declined to share its fourth quarter production guidance, saying it would do so after production resumed. Given the upgrades, however, the company expects to produce 73,000t in the first quarter of 2026, which would be a 6.8pc increased compared to the same period this year. The miner also revised the delivery timeline for its first expansion, now scheduled for completion by the end of 2026, which will lift Grota do Cirilo's total capacity to 520,000t/yr from 245,000t/yr today. It sold 48,600t of spodumene for a total net revenue of $28.5mn in the third quarter. Li tailings will be sold to China Sigma will also begin to sell chemically unaffected dry lithium tailings to Chinese buyers in order to maximize profits and monetize "all lithium we have", Cabral said. The company plans on offloading 950,000t of dry, solid mining byproducts with 1-1.3pc lithium concentration to buyers in China. The company quoted the tailings — which it calls "lithium middlings" — at $120/t at current market prices, which would bring $33mn of additional revenue in the fourth quarter, according to Cabral. There are 100,000t of "middlings" stocked at the port of Vitoria and another 850,000t at the mine, with shipping to China priced at $40/t and $85/t, respectively. Sigma commits first Li batches The company said it secured two offtake agreements with different clients and is negotiating a third to be sealed by year's end. Sigma has, for the first time, committed 100,000t of spodumene to two different customers through long-term offtake agreements. The first agreement covers 80,000t and is structured as a three-month rolling contract at market prices. Under this arrangement, the customer prepays for upcoming production, with payments extending until 30 March 2026. Sigma plans to use the funds as working capital. In the second offtake, the customer has paid $25mn up front in exchange for 20,000t of production over the next three years. Sigma intends to use this funding to support its recent mining upgrade. The company is also negotiating a third offtake with a European-based trading company to partly fund its expansion plans. It expects to close a three-year contract for 40,000t, valued at $51mn upfront, by year-end —bringing total committed production to 140,000t. Additionally, Sigma is in talks for two more offtakes totaling 260,000t, scheduled to close in 2026: one for 80,000t over three years at $100mn, and another for 40,000 t over three years at $51mn. The proceeds from these agreements will be used to repay shareholder debt and fund growth initiatives, respectively. Overall, the miner is set to commit 400,000t of spodumene by the end of 2029. By Pedro Consoli Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Croatia's Omisalj crude receipts drop in October


14/11/25
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14/11/25

Croatia's Omisalj crude receipts drop in October

Barcelona, 14 November (Argus) — Crude receipts at the Croatian terminal of Omisalj fell in October, as a refinery served by the port caught fire and a disagreement continued between Omisalj's terminal operator and Hungary. Overall Mediterranean crude imports dropped sharply in the month. Omisalj receipts declined to 75,000 b/d last month, from 145,000 b/d in September, according to Argus tracking. Deliveries averaged 125,000 b/d in January-October, up from 110,000 b/d across 2024. The terminal serves Croatian firm Ina's 90,000 b/d Rijeka refinery and is the start of the 400,000 b/d Adria pipeline that can supply three landlocked refineries — Mol's 161,000 b/d Szazhalombatta in Hungary and 115,000 b/d Bratislava in Slovakia, and NIS' 96,000 b/d Pancevo in Serbia. Receipts fell as the US sanctioned NIS, and Szazhalombatta had a fire . There were sharp words over transit conditions between Mol and Janaf, in a long-running dispute. October deliveries to Omisalj comprised 45,000 b/d of Azeri BTC Blend, plus 30,000 b/d of Caspian CPC Blend. Argus assessed average crude quality at Omisalj in January-October at 37°API and 0.7pc sulphur, lighter than the 2024 average of 35.8°API and 0.7pc sulphur. Seaborne crude receipts at Mediterranean terminals — including Croatia, Spain, Greece, France's Fos-Lavera and Italy excluding Trieste — fell to 3.39mn b/d from 3.63mn b/d on the month. This was the lowest since June, when there were major works at two Greek refineries and Spain sharply cut crude purchases as a consequence of the end-April Iberian power outage. October arrivals were down on a combination of a string of planned and unplanned works and an ownership dispute in Italy, unplanned maintenance in France, Szazhalombatta's fire and the US' NIS sanctions. For refineries functioning correctly, middle distillate and gasoline cracks are buoyant . Greek's Helleniq Energy expects them to stay strong to year-end . For the second month in a row the biggest crude supplier to the Mediterranean region was the US, with 495,000 b/d down from 565,000 b/d in September. Libya supplied 440,000 b/d and Iraq 445,000 b/d. This was the most Iraqi crude in the Mediterranean since November 2023, supported by strong Greek demand for Basrah Medium, plus returning Kirkuk supply . By Adam Porter Mediterranean Europe crude imports mn bl Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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More oil, gas firms have emissions action plans: OGDC


14/11/25
News
14/11/25

More oil, gas firms have emissions action plans: OGDC

London, 14 November (Argus) — Oil and gas firms that are signatories to the Oil and Gas Decarbonisation Charter (OGDC) have increasingly set out plans to address their operational emissions, methane emissions and flaring, a report from the OGDC said today. Of the companies signed up to the charter in 2024, 36 reported having "interim action plans" for scope 1 and 2 emissions reductions for 2030, 31 reported that they had methane action plans and 33 reported having flaring action plans — up from 31, 20 and 22, respectively, in 2023. Of the signatories, 36 have third-party verification systems in place, the report found. The charter was signed at Cop 28 in 2023 and now has 55 signatories, representing around 40pc of global oil production and around 35pc of global oil and gas output. Of the signatory companies, around two-thirds are state-owned. OGDC signatories produced nearly 59mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) in 2024. The OGDC estimated that total operated scope 1 and 2 emissions for all charter signatories stood at around 1bn t/CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2024. The estimate was based on submissions for operated scope 1 and 2 emissions from 41 signatories, which totalled just above 800mn t/CO2e in 2024. Scope 1 and 2 emissions usually make up a minority of oil and gas producers' total emissions. But scope 3, or end-use, emissions represent the vast majority of oil and gas producer emissions, with estimates in the range of 80-95pc of the total. A report from a group of more than 130 scientists on 13 November found that emissions from fossil fuels are projected to reach a record high of 38.1bn t/CO2 this year. Global emissions from "human activities" stood at 53.2bn t/CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2024, without factoring in emissions from land use, land use change and forestry, the EU's Edgar programme found in September. Charter signatories invested around $32bn in "low-carbon solutions" which include renewables, carbon capture, hydrogen and "low-carbon fuels" in 2024, according to the report. Signatories agree to aim for net zero operations by 2050, "near-zero upstream methane emissions" by 2030, zero routine flaring by 2030 and to "set and share" a 2030 goal for scope 1 and 2 emissions. TotalEnergies, a signatory to the charter, today committed $100mn to a fund which supports technologies to cut emissions "across the oil and gas value chain". The fund — Climate Investment — is partnered with the charter and will help signatories "on their decarbonisation path", within the charter's scope, TotalEnergies said. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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EU states to vote on TRQ, variable duty alloy safeguard


14/11/25
News
14/11/25

EU states to vote on TRQ, variable duty alloy safeguard

London, 14 November (Argus) — The European Commission has proposed safeguard measures that combine tariff-rate quotas (TRQ) and out-of-quota variable duties on ferro-manganese, ferro-silicon, ferro-silico-manganese and ferro-silico-magnesium, in order to support EU ferro-alloy production and market share. EU member states are set to vote on the measures on 17 November. The commission's proposed measures were circulated by the World Trade Organisation at the request of the EU on 12 November. The EU declined to comment on the document. The vote was postponed from today and is the culmination of a safeguard investigation initiated in December 2024. The measures seek to protect seven ferro-alloy producers that have lost significant market share to lower-priced third-country imports. The commission acknowledged that buyers benefit from low prices but argued that protective measures are in the economic and strategic interest of the EU because they ensure a viable domestic industry and steady ferro-alloy supply for EU end-markets. Safeguards to combine TRQ, out-of-quota variable duty The proposed measures set a tariff-rate quota for duty free entry into the EU for each product. Imports in excess of the quota are subject to an out-of-quota variable duty that is the difference between an established price threshold for each product ( see table ) and the actual import price. The quota quantities are equivalent to 75pc of the EU's average imports of each product in 2022-24. This aims to give a 30-40pc "sustainable" market share to European producers, while still maintaining "adequate" supply for downstream users. The annual quota is divided into four three-month segments, starting on 18 November. If excess imports are made at the level of the price threshold or above, no duty needs to be paid. If imports are made at a lower price, the duty paid would be equal to the difference between the net free-at-EU frontier (cif) price and the respective price threshold. The thresholds are set at a "non-injurious price for ferro-alloy imports" determined by the cost of domestic sales for each product type, with added compliance costs, investments and a target profit. But some market participants view the price thresholds as detached from reality. The threshold proposed by the commission is €2,408/t ($2,800/t) cif Europe, which is almost double the actual market price today. Argus assessed ferro-silicon prices at €1,180-1,235/t ddp Europe on 13 November. The excessive size of the threshold means end-users will substitute the alloy with silicon metal or other alternative products, which makes it unlikely the ferro-silicon quota will be met and therefore the threshold will not be a factor, a ferro-silicon producer told Argus . Norway, Iceland subject to measures The proposed measures would apply to imports from European Economic Area (EEA) member states Norway and Iceland, affecting major producers such as Elkem and Finnfjord. The ferro-alloy industry association that was the driving force behind the safeguard investigation, Euroalliages, called for the exclusion of Norway and Iceland from the measures, in a recent interview with Argus . The measures should not apply to either country for reasons of economic integration with the EU economy and business ties, secretary-general Bob Lambrechts said. But Norway and Iceland have inflicted sustained economic injury on EU ferro-alloy producers and the proposed measures satisfy the requirements of Articles 112 and 113, which set out conditions and procedures for safeguards, the commission said. Norway and Iceland supplied 47.4pc of total EU imports last year. Those imports were priced below EU producers' but were noticeably higher than imports from third countries such as India. Silicon excluded Silicon metal imports into the EU did not increase between 2019-24, according to the commission's analysis. Silicon metal was consequently excluded from further investigations and the resulting safeguards. The EU imported 334,861t of silicon in 2024, near flat against 2019 imports of 335,415t, Eurostat data show. Imports decreased to 326,372t in the most recent reported 12-month period, 1 July 2024-30 June 2025. The commission analysed imports relative to production and consumption of ferro-alloys, but it is not clear whether this analysis was done for silicon. Absolute import volumes have not increased, but EU silicon production and consumption have decreased sharply in recent years due to lower demand from aluminium alloy and silicone producers. And EU producers are not able to compete against lower-priced imports from third countries. All EU silicon metal production is currently off line due to untenable market conditions, with shutdowns executed in France, Spain, Germany and Bosnia-Herzegovina. Silicon metal may be affected indirectly if steel mills substitute silicon metal for ferro-silicon, although this is dependent on adjustment of production processes and ferro-silicon prices. Major producer Ferroglobe expressed concern that silicon was excluded from these measures, but welcomed "the commission's commitment to address this in a second step in the coming months". The EU has not publicly communicated any additional trade defence investigations for silicon metal. By Maeve Flaherty and Samuel Wood Price thresholds for tariff increase €/t Product type HS / CN codes Price threshold Ferro-manganese 7202 11, 7202 19 1,316 Ferro-silicon 7202 21, 7202 29 2,408 Ferro-silico-manganese 7202 30 1,392 Ferro-silico-magnesium 7202 99 30 3,647 — WTO, European Commission Volumes of tariff–rate quotas - Year 1 Product type HS and CN codes Allocation by country (where applicable) Year 1 From 18.11.2025 to 17.2.2026 From 18.2.2026 to 17.5.2026 From 18.5.2026 to 17.8.2026 From 18.8.2026 to 17.11.2026 Volume of tariff quota (net tonnes) Ferro-Manganese 7202 11. 7202 19 Norway 28,972.70 28,027.93 28,972.70 28,972.70 India 17,625.79 17,051.04 17,625.79 17,625.79 South Africa 8,272.87 8,003.10 8,272.87 8,272.87 Malaysia 6,765.92 6,545.29 6,765.92 6,765.92 South Korea 4,832.82 4,675.23 4,832.82 4,832.82 Other countries 5,557.54 5,376.31 5,557.54 5,557.54 Ferro-Silicon 7202 21. 7202 29 Norway 35,136.16 33,990.41 35,136.16 35,136.16 Iceland 13,373.32 12,937.24 13,373.32 13,373.32 Kazakhstan 8,090.25 7,826.44 8,090.25 8,090.25 Brazil 6,316.02 6,110.06 6,316.02 6,316.02 Other countries 24,984.27 24,169.56 24,984.27 24,984.27 Ferro-Silico-Magnesium 7202 99 30 China 468.90 453.61 468.90 468.90 Brazil 99.81 96.55 99.81 99.81 India 78.90 76.33 78.90 78.90 Thailand 76.83 74.32 76.83 76.83 Other countries 18.89 18.28 18.89 18.89 Ferro-Silico-Manganese 7202 30 Norway 37,067.71 35,858.98 37,067.71 37,067.71 India 31,958.61 30,916.48 31,958.61 31,958.61 Zambia 7,882.49 7,625.45 7,882.49 7,882.49 Other countries 18,955.56 18,337.44 18,955.56 18,955.56 - WTO, European Commission Volumes of tariff–rate quotas - Year 2 Product type HS and CN codes Allocation by country (where applicable) Year 2 From 18.11.2026 to 17.2.2027 From 18.11.2026 to 17.2.2027 From 18.11.2026 to 17.2.2027 From 18.11.2026 to 17.2.2027 Volume of tariff quota (net tonnes) Ferro-Manganese 7202 11. 7202 19 Norway 29,001.67 28,055.96 29,001.67 29,001.67 India 17,643.42 17,068.09 17,643.42 17,643.42 South Africa 8,281.14 8,011.10 8,281.14 8,281.14 Malaysia 6,772.68 6,551.83 6,772.68 6,772.68 South Korea 4,837.65 4,679.90 4,837.65 4,837.65 Other countries 5,563.09 5,381.69 5,563.09 5,563.09 Ferro-Silicon 7202 21. 7202 29 Norway 35,171.30 34,024.41 35,171.30 35,171.30 Iceland 13,386.70 12,950.18 13,386.70 13,386.70 Kazakhstan 8,098.34 7,834.27 8,098.34 8,098.34 Brazil 6,322.34 6,116.17 6,322.34 6,322.34 Other countries 25,009.25 24,193.73 25,009.25 25,009.25 Ferro-Silico-Magnesium 7202 99 30 China 469.37 454.07 469.37 469.37 Brazil 99.91 96.65 99.91 99.91 India 78.98 76.40 78.98 78.98 Thailand 76.91 74.40 76.91 76.91 Other countries 18.91 18.30 18.91 18.91 Ferro-Silico-Manganese 7202 30 Norway 37,104.78 35,894.84 37,104.78 37,104.78 India 31,990.57 30,947.40 31,990.57 31,990.57 Zambia 7,890.37 7,633.08 7,890.37 7,890.37 Other countries 18,974.51 18,355.78 18,974.51 18,974.51 — WTO, European Commission Volumes of tariff–rate quotas - Year 3 Product type HS and CN codes Allocation by country (where applicable) Year 3 From 18.11.2027 to 17.2.2028 From 18.11.2027 to 17.2.2028 From 18.11.2027 to 17.2.2028 From 18.11.2027 to 17.2.2028 Volume of tariff quota (net tonnes) Ferro-Manganese 7202 11. 7202 19 Norway 28,951.35 28,321.98 28,951.35 28,951.35 India 17,612.81 17,229.92 17,612.81 17,612.81 South Africa 8,266.77 8,087.06 8,266.77 8,266.77 Malaysia 6,760.93 6,613.95 6,760.93 6,760.93 Korea. Republic of 4,829.26 4,724.28 4,829.26 4,829.26 Other countries 5,553.44 5,432.71 5,553.44 5,553.44 Ferro-Silicon 7202 21. 7202 29 Norway 35,110.27 34,347.01 35,110.27 35,110.27 Iceland 13,363.47 13,072.96 13,363.47 13,363.47 Kazakhstan 8,084.29 7,908.55 8,084.29 8,084.29 Brazil 6,311.37 6,174.16 6,311.37 6,311.37 Other countries 24,965.86 24,423.13 24,965.86 24,965.86 Ferro-Silico-Magnesium 7202 99 30 China 468.56 458.37 468.56 468.56 Brazil 99.73 97.56 99.73 99.73 India 78.84 77.13 78.84 78.84 Thailand 76.77 75.10 76.77 76.77 Other countries 18.88 18.47 18.88 18.88 Ferro-Silico-Manganese 7202 30 Norway 37,040.40 36,235.18 37,040.40 37,040.40 India 31,935.07 31,240.83 31,935.07 31,935.07 Zambia 7,876.68 7,705.45 7,876.68 7,876.68 Other countries 18,941.59 18,529.82 18,941.59 18,941.59 — WTO, European Commission Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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